Military Events in Syria and Iraq thread #3

Some progress in the North-East part of the terrorist enclave:

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The fighting in the northeast part of the enclave continues. There are reports that the Syrian army, attacking from the east in the direction of the medieval Aleppo citadel, has taken most of al Halwaniya, reached the Jazmati traffic roundabout (Jazmati sq. on the map below) and is penetrating into Myassar. The map below may be a bit out of date, but if you click on it the expanded view designates the location of all the districts and locations mentioned in the news. The UN negotiator Stefan de Mistura has suggested that the way things are going, the Aleppo pocket might not survive for more than a month. He urges the rebels to take advantage of the offers to allow them to leave for Idlib, in order to save the civilians in the enclave from street fighting to the end, Berlin 1945 style.

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Here are some actual maps:

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And there is actually the news that Sha'ar district on the top is completely encircled.

So, it makes no longer sense to talk about East Aleppo if one wants to mention the terrorist pocket, it is essentially South Aleppo.

 

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If those maps are accurate, it looks like the Syrians (or Iranians or whoever it is) are making more progress than I thought. (They've taken Karam Qaterji? And I thought that my post might have exaggerated their progress.) They will probably reach the citadel in a day or so. (The photos suggest that the area around the citadel might be densely packed Old City where street fighting could be particularly difficult.) Rebel resistance in the north part of their enclave seem to be collapsing once again.

If this continues, the estimates that the rebel pocket might survive for another month might have been over optimistic. The enclave might implode in as little as a week.

 

Comrade Schmelzer you are one again confusing rebels with terrorists. The terrorists are the guys you support, you know, the guys dropping bombs on hospitals and innocent civilians and using weapons of mass destruction against its own citizens.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-assad-keeps-dropping-gas-bombs-on-syrian-civilians-2015-5

 

Have they again destroyed the last hospital of Aleppo?

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Why are you Russians and Assad bombing hospitals in Aleppo? Why are you bombing civilians? Why is your ally Assad using chemical weapons against the people he is suppose to protect? Russia and her ally Assad are the terrorists, not the patriots who are defending themselves.

 

Accidental double post deleted.

 

The Syrian government push westwards from the hospital towards the Aleppo Citadel continues. The army is reportedly within 1/2 km (1/4 mile) of the citadel and fighting seems to be taking place in the narrow winding pathways of the old city directly below the citadel with sounds of heavy gunfire audible and smoke rising. Both sides describe the fighting as intense. The Syrians (or Iranians or whoever they are) are having to go building-by-building in a tightly-packed maze-like environment. So far, the rebels don't seem to be withdrawing from areas north of the citadel like Sha'ar and seem to be determined to make their final stand where they are. They are even bringing in reinforcements.

The US and Russia seem to want to persuade the rebels to leave east/south Aleppo and go to Idlib or someplace in order to avoid further loss of life, particularly for civilians. But at least some of the rebel factions are saying that they aren't going anywhere. (These are the kind of Islamists who produce suicide-bombers, so they might welcome 'martyrdom'.)

I'm reminded of Berlin in April 1945.

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There are also reports that a Russian Sukhoi SU 33 fighter-strike aircraft operating from the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier in the eastern Mediterranean has been lost attempting to land. It seems to have missed that arrester wires, went off the end of the deck and failed to go around for another try, but crashed into the sea instead. The pilot survived and was successfully recovered by a helicopter. A MIG 29 from the same ship suffered an engine failure a few weeks ago and was lost as well after the pilot was forced to eject.

https://theaviationist.com/?p=40626

 

It seems that the terrorists give up the thin Northern parts. Al Shaer is already claimed to be completely liberated, one can expect that everything North of the citadel will be liberated in short time.

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After the police hill in the South-East has been taken and secured, the Syrian army is also attacking from the South-East direction toward Bab an-Nayrab.

So, it makes no longer sense to talk about East Aleppo, better South Aleppo or even South-West Aleppo.

 

There are already claims at various sources like https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivi...n_arab_army_captured_sheikh_lufti_and_marjeh/
that the village Sheikh Lufti and the district Marjeh have been liberated. This is a quite significant progress:

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That Al Shaer is liberated is already confirmed from many sides, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-keeps-rolling-east-aleppo-liberating-al-shaer/
(In the South, this map is completely off, but correctly shows the two captured sites.)

The red arrow at the top of this map is also already close to being finished progress. At least the top is already liberated:

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and more will follow. https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivi...po_large_scale_withdrawal_of_rebels_from_the/

 

The Syrian army has succeeded to reach the citadel from the East, and those who have been cut of North of the citadel have surrendered.

 

Some actual map:

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And the progress continues. The village Sheikh Lufti and the district Marjeh, which seem to have been libertated yesterday only partially, are now under full control. The district Bab Al-Nayrab has been taken, some claim the Al-Maadi Neighborhood has been taken too, other claim there is fighting yet. Other claim that the Syrian army is storming now the al Salheen district.

Oh, I see, there are already two claims that Salheen is under government control.

For orientation: With the Al Salheen district taken, one could go from the citadel in South direction up to the border over liberated territory. Al Saheen is the last remaining district East of this line. In other words, the East Aleppo pocket has been transformed into a South-West Aleppo pocket, without the terrorists taking even a single piece of Aleppo.

The terrorists ask for a 5 day ceasefire. I think the other side will think about this a few days, and then it may be no longer necessary.

 

This map may or may not exaggerate the government's recent gains, but it's clear that the Syrian government forces are pushing in inexorably from the east and rebels' position in east Aleppo is collapsing rapidly. All the talk now seems to be about terms of a rebel surrender. A couple of days ago Russia and the US were offering the rebels the opportunity to travel to Idlib or someplace. But the rebels turned it down and indicated they were going to remain and fight. Now, given the Damascus government's recent successes, I'm not sure if the offer allowing them to leave is on the table any more. Their option at this point might just be unconditional surrender or fighting to the death. There are indications that the various rebel factions are divided on what to do and their morale is low.

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That map seems even pessimistic, especially in the region South of the citadel. Here a more optimistic one:

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but I have seen Syrian army pictures which seem localized inside the remains. The most interesting map was one from some time before the Eastern parts have been taken:

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The point was that there was pressure from the North, and this pressure has created the danger of splitting for the forces in the East, which was one reason why they have easily given up these districts. So, this map looks quite accurate for the Northern part - the picture I have seen has been near the border of that frontline.

PS: Found the picture again,

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a Syrian soldier on a quite big hill South West of the citadel, where not much beyond http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.191854&lon=37.155418&z=16&m=b&search=алеппо seems to be available for the location.

 

Yesterday the liberation of Aleppo continued, with the most visible progress in Sheikh Saeed:

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In the evening, the fighting was stopped, to allow civilians to leave the area. If the ceasefire really holds is not clear yet,

 

The ceasefire in Aleppo does not seem to have been successful, it looks like the fighting continues.

Bad news from the environment of Palmyra,

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Daesh is attacking the road to Palmyra from two sides, and Palmyra itself from a third one, and they have made some dangerous progress. Hopefully only for some time, until reinforcements arrive. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-offensive-homs-province-slows-yet-repelled/ for more about this.

 

Situation looks very bad in Palmyra. It seems, Daesh is actually taking it.