Military Events in Syria and Iraq thread #3

You have the following contingent, coinciding events:

1. Presidential Elections USA 8th of November, 2016. only 19 days away, with Trump questioning the democratic process. (first time in what? 240 years or so)
   
2. Arrival of the Russian fleet shortly in Syrian waters.
   
3. One sided ceasefires...with evacuation transport provided
4. UN Security Council - "low expectations but high hopes"
5. Genuine negotiations appear not to be happening

seems pretty straight forward to me...

The rebels and civilians are on a last chance call is my guess.
I would strongly recommend they leave and leave now... or at the very least evacuate the women and children...

If you look through the history books on what "one sided" with the option to evacuate ceasefires, usually lead to you may understand my concern.

I do not believe the USA will interfere directly at this time due to the presidential election unless the USA or any of it's allies are directly threatened.

 

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This dubious story with the Belgian or not Belgian airforce which attacked civilians suggests the US can as well use its allies to do the attack. Remember that the ISIS support attack against the Syrian army in Deir Ezzor has been also done with mainly allies airforces. The idea seems nice and typical American: Use some Belgian airforce to attack the Syrian army and to be shot, with the results of Europe crying and imposing sanctions against Russia, which is anyway a major aim of all what America is doing.

I think the reason for the one-sided ceasefire in Aleppo was simply part of the infowar. To show the terrorists attacking something humanitarian and shooting those who want to go out. Which has been done. Of course, without the Western media caring about this, but this has to be expected too. Maybe to take a look how some locals react - to start, during the next days, some more hidden negotiations with some of the terrorist forces.

 

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hmm.. telling lies is not only a favorite Russian thing to do after all...

well. they did canvas this issue on local TV tonight... so I am not sure why you think Western media didn't.
Ahh! Sorry I forgot.. you don't watch TV or listen to radio but offer a critique as if you did...

 

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Funny, given that I have simply speculated about such a possibility, there is now news that some UN guys came to Aleppo for negotiations. Sounds like negotiations of the same hidden type which has already lead to 150 fighters going out.

The Western medium I regularly look (the only serious German paper which allows comments without prior censorship, zeit.de) has not reported. Other Western media I see sometimes via various links, so I expect if something really unorthodox (in sharp contrast with NATO propaganda guidelines) is published there I will learn about it. So, even if I see regularly only a very small part of it, it is probably much greater than what you see from the Russian side.

In the ZEIT the news was presented close to this (out of memory): "Despite the ceasefire, there have been some fighting, above sides claiming the other as responsible. Some wounded." Ok, for the ZEIT, this is already a quite neutral formulation, they usually rely on SOHR pure.

 

well they definitely mentioned that the rebels/terrorists were holding the civies hostage and shooting them if they attempted to leave.... on SBS World News Melbourne AU 21-10-2016

 

Who was it that said "The first casualty of any conflict is the truth"?

Ancient Greek guy "Aeschylus' I think..

 

Churkin is trolling US. Background: The Russian side has invited the US side to participate in the observation of the corridor for evacuation. The US has refused. Churkin, the Russian guy in the UN, has now explained this by cowardice. (seen only in Russian, my translations of the word).

More fun: http://bigstory.ap.org/f63a978b03c44239bc50d098bb1098fe Polish defense minister claims that Egypt has sold the mistrals to Russia for 1$.

Fine. This is something one expect to read only about Mossul, where the US is fighting.

In fact, maybe indeed Australian media are less controlled, I remember the MH17 video leak, where the novorussian fighters on the site talked about an fighter jet shooting the big plane and their air defenses shooting the fighter, was placed on some local Australian site too.

 

Instead of rushing towards ISIS-held al Bab, it appears that the "FSA"/ Turks have attacked the SDF Kurds and are pushing west from Mare towards Tal Rifat.

http://www.edmaps.com/Syria_Battle_for_Azaz_AlBab_October_21.png

 

News from Aleppo: https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-hezbollah-intensify-southern-aleppo-assault/ describes some recent progress in the South of Aleppo. Yesterday they were taking an air defense base, today an adjacent hill, above on the outer side, to prevent an attack from the South-West toward Aleppo like the last one. Already a few days ago, at the time of the ceasefire, such preparations have been observed. There is also progress at the inner part of this South-West direction, in Sheikh Sa'eed and Al-'Amariyah some building blocks have been taken. This makes it more difficult for the terrorists to break out.

In West Ghouta, the town Khan Al-Sheih is now almost completely encircled, after Khan Al-Sheih's northwestern farms have been taken by the Syrian army.

Bad news: In East Ghouta, the terrorists have rejected a peace proposal, and the fighting has started again.

I have found an interesting article from Krutikov at http://rusvesna.su/recent_opinions/1477179748 (in Russian only), with some interesting information:

First of all, a lot of interesting history, in particular, about a conflict inside the Assad clan. In the 1980s, there was an infight between Hafez Assad and his brother Rifat Assad. The end of this infight was that Rifat Assad emigrated, and is living now in Europe, mostly France and Spain. He is old now, but the point is that his sons control a large part of the "moderate opposition" the West relies on. In other words, what would be the optimal solution for the West would be the replacement of one Assad by another Assad, a more corrupt one.

It describes the split in the Syrian society as between Christians, Alewites, Shiites and eveything else, together with moderate Sunnis, on the one hand, and fundamentalist Sunnis on the other hand, and characterizes it as a fight where none of above sides can think about a compromise - the other side has to be eliminated.

It describes the 2006–11 drought, which has lead to a large scale economic escape inside the country, from rural areas into the big rich towns, and notes that these are the base of the large scale emigration during the war time - they were already without a homeland, already used to escape. A main reason for this drought was Turkey, building several power stations along the Euphrat, which lead to less water in the Euphrat, fatal for the agriculture along the Euphrat.

The other interesting point was his opinion about Assad. He was initially expected to be weak - and this was the main reason of his initial problems, in particular defections from the army and so on. But now he shown that he is not weak, and is accepted as a strong leader. And, in particular, as a Syrian leader, not a leader of some particular religious faction. This makes him quite unique now. He is open to those who oppose him for political or other reasons, but rigid against the Wahabi fanatics. Essentially the only person able to unify Syria now.

So, roughly, if one wants to end the war, instead of having at least 10 more years of war, one has to support Assad.

 

The overwhelmingly significant factor in the recent Syrian drought was a lack of rain. The drought has been most severe in the north and northwestern region of Syria, not particularly along the Euphrates River. http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire...likely-its-most-severe-in-more-than-900-years
https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/drought-syria-apr2014.png&imgrefurl=http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/drought-in-syria-a-major-cause-of-the-civil-war&docid=5se9E3sNQ6FieM&tbnid=PPXEpd44qOGPiM:&w=621&h=450&bih=1239&biw=1392&ved=0ahUKEwiW2L34s_XPAhVM5oMKHecUBDcQMwgkKAYwBg&iact=mrc&uact=8

The single most significant factor in the lack of rain apparently (statistically) was the long term drying trend brought on by the increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2.
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full

Assad's enemies are not just Wahabis, but also Kurds etc, and his record of brutality in consolidating his acquisition of power has confirmed them. He has not tolerated political opposition, instead performing the standard tyrant two-step upon taking power (cf Stalin, Mao, any number of others) in which an initial period of tolerance and benign rhetoric is employed to identify enemies, who are then stepped on.

The US W&Cheney administration borrowed Assad's torture police a least once or twice, handing them "suspects" for "interrogation" by methods difficult to conceal in the insufficiently secure or expert US startups.

And so forth.

 

A new map about some progress in the South-West of Aleppo:

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The main advantage is the hill named Tal Bazo, which, according to different sources, is a quite important one in terms of control of its surroundings. There are claims that Tal Mutah is under SAA control too, but on another map the hill named here Tal Uhd is named Tal Mutah, so this frontline may be correct even if these claims are correct. These advances are quite important, given that the terrorists prepare a greater offensive, and, given that in the North there is no longer much hope to break through along the Castello road, this direction seems to be the main place for the next big fight.

The Kurds are mostly neutral in the civil war. His record of brutality is too much distorted by Western propaganda lies that it is impossible to distinguish them. Of course, he has to rule a country without liberal or democratic traditions, and I would therefore expect that some things he is doing do not fit with humanitarian ideals. But there was no necessity to take power - the power has been taken long ago by his father, and was given him for free.

Using hidden prisons in other countries for things illegal in the US like torture was done by the US in many places, including some European states like Poland and Romania. Who is doing the job of torturing remains, of course, hidden too. This is the purpose of a hidden prison. Just to clarify: I do not doubt that there is a lot of police brutality in Syria. As everywhere in the world, including Germany, where it is, for example, well-known that if the SEK arrests you at home you will be beaten. (And the SEK is always used if they think it is, for whatever reasons, better not to ring politely, which would give the people some time, say, to shut down their computer or so.) So, the general rule is that police is beating. And if one compares the degree of police brutality, which, of course, wildly differs, I would not expect that any Arab country has a chance for a good position.

Moreover, in civil wars the general level of brutality increases, and almost unavoidable this happens on all sides. Do you expect those who have seen the Al Zinki guys cutting the head of that 12yo boy to behave, if they catch one of them, in agreement with the rules of a civilized state of law about the handling of suspected persons? Sorry, I don't think so.

Nonetheless I think that the Assad side behaves in a more civilized way than the US-paid terrorists.

 

They are fighting for themselves - which means against Assad, eventually if not immediately.

But he had to consolidate his hold during the transition - the death of a strongman in a corrupt setup like Syria is always a time of uncertainty. So his standard thug trick of allowing a time of tolerance and protest in order to identify his enemies was normal.

The US didn't use hidden prisons in Syria - they just turned the captives over to the regular Syrian torture police, who had everything set up.

There are many countries in which most people can expect not to be beaten when arrested. Even in the US, beating arrested people is not routine or normal in most places. Lawsuits.

When the US was outsourcing some of its torture program, in the early 2000s, Syria was not in civil war.

 

A claim of some progress in the North of Aleppo: https://twitter.com/Syria_Hezb_Iran/status/790908547416588288

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The district Ard Al Hamra is claimed to be fully liberated. So, the attack direction from the North is also not completely stopped.

A standard American thug trick does not help you at all in Syria. Which was one of the main problems he initially had - in Syria, you have to be tough from the start. Tolerance is interpreted as weakness, and if you are weak, you are almost dead.

Most people expect this - and then wonder if they are beaten when arrested. Quite typical, because this is usually nothing to be propagated, even tough regimes try to hide this. So, if you want to know if police is beating, you have to ask people who know it - for example, criminals.

 

Which was why he used that standard tyrant's trick from strongman governments around the world - Stalin used it, Mao used it, lots of ME and SA and Eastern European guys have used it, he learned from the best. America doesn't (yet) have a strongman government, so these Syrian thug tricks don't work here.

I know lots of people who have been arrested. None were beaten by the police. And where I live, what the police do is not a secret - we have lawyers, people who are beaten by the police can win lawsuits, etc.

Police brutality is a problem in my area, but not because they beat everyone they arrest. They only beat people when they can get away with it, and with most people they can't. Lots of places are like that. Just not where you come from, apparently.

 

Problem with reading and interpreting texts? My point was that your "tyrant's trick" would be counterproductive in Syria, because a "tolerant" guy would be considered as weak and everybody would defect. Which was the main problem for Assad initially: He was considered as weak. Which caused some defections of some generals. You may think it to present yourself as tolerant is a standard trick. As usual, there are many such "standard tricks", and which "standard trick" works depends on the situation. Afair Machiavelli did not recommend such tolerance, but, instead, to do all the necessary killings immediately. Your "trick" is, in most cases, simply the result that initially the strongman was not strong enough to do what he wanted.

In general, German is a country with comparably low level police brutality. The fact I have mentioned (police beating as typical if SEK arrests at home) is probably unknown to most of the German population. I have not known it long time too. What one reads about police brutality in the net, the problems in the US seem much greater.

In everyday life, police brutality seems in most cases invisible. In the communist Germany, I have never seen myself any police brutality, except at 7. Oktober 1989. In Breshnew time Russia, the same. During the last years, I have lived in many different Third World countries, again, never seen myself police brutality. The most problematic thing an average person sees is policemen forcing to pay bribes. So, references to personal experience gives essentially nothing.

 

In Northern Hama, the town Souran has been taken by the Syrian army.

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The first big counterattack by some reinforcements of the terrorists already has been repelled, there are even claims that they are trying to advance further.

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Are you trying to deny that Assad did what he did?

No, in most cases it's well managed and deliberately accomplished - certainly in Stalin's, Mao's, and most SA and ME cases.

You are claiming that it was an accident, in Assad's case - a matter of good luck?

But everybody who is targeted knows about it. They talk to each other.

You claimed that being arrested meant being beaten by the police. I have personal knowledge of dozens of people in my area, including myself, who have been arrested without being beaten. So your claim is false for my area - it is quite possible to be arrested and not beaten, and that is the common experience in my area. And there are good reasons for that - it's not because the police are all of fine, upstanding character.

The police cannot safely beat people in the US unless they are of some targeted and oppressed minority group, because of lawsuits - anyone with access to lawyers, and that is most people in such cases in the US (where the lawyers can make good money from government settlements), essentially cannot be beaten safely by the police upon arrest.

 

The big attack against Aleppo, which was declared already some time ago, has started. Heavy attacks have started at several places - in the West and South-West, but, nicely coordinated with ISIS, also in the East against the Kuweiris airport. The first attack seemed to have been repelled, but the second seems to have reached some progress. It is unclear how much - from several buildings to the whole Al Assad suburb, and from simply heavy fighting in to having taken the whole 1070. The usual situation, the terrorists like to claim victories once they attack, so their claims are initially only descriptions where they attack.

We will see.

A nonsensical question. Think about it. Sort of joepistole level.

At Stalin as well as Mao time it was certainly not popular to look tolerant. As it would not be, at least in some parts of US population, to be "tolerant to crime". That one has to be "tolerant" to those in the leadership who are yet strong is a triviality and a necessity, not a subtle decision. Those who did not do this would be killed before becoming dictators. So, I simply think that your thesis is a sort of conspiracy theory where no conspiracy is necessary.

Yes. And in this way it became, via insufficient censorship, known to me. There was an SEK action in Berlin against a known criminal family. Even in criminal families, not all of them are criminals, so in the flat to be searched there was a family member who was not at all a suspected criminal, simply a family member. But he has known what the SEK is doing in such cases, and laid down arms up, before they came in. He was beaten anyway. But, once there was nothing available against him, they had to release him after a short time, and gone with this story to the press. And the press has not cared too much about this.

So, indeed, people targeted by SEK know about this.

No. Arrested by the SEK, the German analog of SWAT. And, moreover, at home, so that it is not visible to the public.

 

The rebels, mainly the Ahrar al Sham/Jabhat Fatah al Sham (Nusra Front) Islamist alliance, have launched an offensive in Aleppo in hopes of breaking through to their encircled comrades in east Aleppo. It's unclear how much progress they have made. The main thrust seems to be in SW Aleppo, where the rebels briefly broke through a few weeks ago.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-offensive-idUSKCN12S0QP

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...und-regime-Aleppo-battle-prelude-monitor.html

The second news story has photos of improvised armored vehicles (including a crudely armored bulldozer). It also shows bearded Islamists firing home-made mortars. These can't be very accurate, so they are apparently being used much as Assad's bombing has been, to force their enemies to keep their heads down and prevent them from fighting effectively.

There are also reports of old WWII-style Russian grad multiple rocket launchers being used by the rebels. When fired in large numbers in salvoes, these can be absolutely devastating and are guaranteed to cause many casualties. If they were fired in this manner into parts of west Aleppo populated by civilians, many of those civilians died. (But the Arabs often fire these unguided artillery rockets singly, one by one, which isn't nearly as effective.) Presumably the rockets and their launchers were looted from Syrian army stocks earlier in the civil war.

And there are reports of longer range rockets being fired at Latakia and the Russian air base there. These weren't very accurate and it appears that none hit the base. They probably did cause civilian casualties though.

It looks to me like both sides in this civil war have a tendency to shoot indiscriminately and don't care very much about how many of the other side's civilian supporters they kill.

 

Reading through the commentary of this thread reminds me of this quote by Roman, Marcus Aurelius

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