What's new in Syria

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Schmelzer, Dec 13, 2015.

  1. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    5,003
    The good news from today come out of Latakia. After the fall of Rabia there was not much news about this region - it seems, some time was necessary to secure the large area which has been taken in a very short time. But today there are some news, namely that the village al-Aliya has been taken (claimed by http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13941117001370 ) and, even if actually twitter only, Obin. These are, I would say, quite important villages of the remaining part North of the M4 highway in Latakia, and defines an advantage of also at least 2 km after Rabia has been taken.

    And, as usual, you appear unable to understand the meaning of sentences containing an "if". And, of course, what matters is not any other information, but relevant information.
    Volatility is not about the question if petroleum is also falling, but about how much. And Russia has build and is actually building such capacities.
    Yes, and this is the funny thing: http://davidstockmanscontracorner.c...nts-have-been-surprisingly-large-and-orderly/
    It is because it has a serious reduction of its income. And because some further privatization was planned long ago, but now there was some justification to increase the pressure on some bureaucrats to really start this.

    They have declined 2014, now they are increasing. So this is not a problem at all.
    Nonsense.
    Nonsense. Some firms always go bankrupt. Some will always be close to this, and to pay wages later is in such a situation a reasonable thing which may avoid the bankruptcy. And because the workers loose their job in case of bankruptcy, they may prefer to accept such late payments. Always. And, of course, more in times of a recession.

    Your source has given the numbers, around 50 mio \$ for the whole Russia, that means of order 0.5\$ per citizen, in other words nothing worth to mention, not even close to Jeltsin time.

    No, there was no authorization to violate any international law by doing this. Your source is worth nothing, you have to look at the text of the resolution, which your source hides.
    I have not paid a single cent for this, and would never. (But I remember, I had to sign in for free.)
    But why should I care about different sorts of shit, to find out some sort of it you like?
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2016
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  3. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Looks like it's do-or-die time in Aleppo for what's left of the moderate rebellion. As I've noted several times, existing Western support has been woefully inadequate against the onslaught of Russia's air force alongside years of massive economic and military aid to the Assad regime, combined with foreign Shia militias and the support of their affiliated governments.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/paralle...n-troops-advance-in-a-major-battle-for-aleppo

    Without a substantial and immediate change in Western policy towards Syria's moderate rebels, Putin will have all but accomplished his goal of narrowing the Syrian battlefield to the Assad regime and ISIS, while Western countries are left to deal with the resulting swarm of refugees.

    In my opinion, viable actions to protect the moderate rebellion include declaring no-fly zones in Aleppo and other border areas, backed by aircraft and surface-to-air missiles such as the Patriot in the same manner employed by Russia closer to Damascus. Other options include a dramatic increase in military aid to rebels in Aleppo and other areas, including effective anti-air weapons. ISIS already possesses large arsenals shoulder-fired anti-air rockets capable of downing civilian aircraft, so I fail to see the risk in improving the anti-air capabilities of relatively moderate fighters compared to the risks of doing nothing at all. It may even be time for NATO and its allies to deploy a meaningful ground force to Syria with the aim of seizing land from ISIS and other hostile parties while keeping it out of Russian hands.

    Even if Putin, Assad and the Ayatollahs succeed in eliminating moderate rebel factions in Syria and the battlefield is left to Al Nusra and ISIS, all of these parties should nevertheless be treated as hostile military threats and state sponsors of terror, and they should all be cut off from global markets with a tightening of existing sanctions and military blockades. There can be no negotiations with Hitler using Syria's refugees or his non-existent fight with ISIS as a bargaining chip, which would be outright appeasement in its worst form.
     
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  5. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Some nice source - Pepe Escobar about Erdogan: http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/why-sultan-chaos-freaking-out/ri12659

    I have thought that many US presidential candidates are really stupid, but, with you in comparison, it could be much worse.

    No fly zones over Syria would be the danger of war with Russia, with the US as the aggressor. This is at least not what Obama wants. Ok, if Hitlary becomes president, this may mean WW III, but some time is left until this happens, and when she comes to power is 2017, so some time is left yet. Effective anti-air weapons are far too dangerous for America, because there are no "relatively moderate" fighters which are not ready to sell whatever they have to Al Qaida and ISIS, and ISIS will also shoot American planes. So here America will veto, and already has.

    And, BTW, MANPADS do not reach the 10 000 m where civil aircraft flies, so they work only near airports.
    Means, preventing Syrian troops from entering these occupied regions? This would be a clear case of war, of aggression. See above.
    Military blockades? Do you really want war with Russia? Think twice.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2016
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  7. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    I thought you guys said we're already at war, so.... Personally, I think we should transfer everything in our bank accounts to you to keep you afloat as long as possible, and help you to carve up everyone else's territories one piece at a time. We're only trying to hold you back and slow you down for your own good, so that your declining population has at least a fighting chance of holding onto and securing all that land you need to gobble up.
     
  8. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    Do you really think anyone fears a pipsqueak wannabe nation like Mother Russia....seriously? Two, any conflict with Mother Russia wouldn't be a WW III because Russia has no allies of merit. I would the world against Mother Russia and it would be a very short war. Putin knows if he uses his aging nuclear weapons, it will be the last thing he does and Mother Russia will cease to exist. You shouldn't repeat the mistakes of the Nazis or Imperial Japan.

    The question is, does Russia really want war with the world? I think the answer is clearly no, else Putin would have retaliated militarily against Turkey when Turkey shot down Putin's warplane. The unfortunate fact for you and your beloved 2 bit dictator (i.e. Putin) is the world will not be bullied by a 2 bit backwater dictator who has dreams of global domination. Putin should take your advice and think twice. The world will not be bullied by your beloved Putin. They will laugh at him as they have done and continue to do. He is a clown. Putin and Mother Russia are not even in the same league as NATO. And Putin knows it. Putin is long on bravado and really short on intelligence. Everyone else in the world, Mother Russia excepted, know he is holding a very bad hand.
     
  9. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    5,003
    What we have now is Cold War.
    Indeed, nobody expects a nuclear war to be a long one. It will be short, with US, Europe and other allies, and Russia being completely destroyed, and the rest of the world trying to survive after this.
    together with the US. And, fortunately, the US knows very well that the Russian nuclear weapons are not aged.
    Of course, not. But it will defend itself if attacked. And it will defend Syria if Turkey attacks.
    LOL. Russia has retaliated, and militarily. Not in the primitive way, like the US would have reacted in a similar situation, by shooting at Turkish territory killing a lot of civilians. But by delivering S 400 to Syria, and bombing the Turkish Nazis who have killed one of the pilots out of Latakia. By supporting the Kurds taking the Tishreen dam and entering the West side of the Euphrat, ignoring Erdogan's red lines. And by closing now the jihad highway from Turkey to Aleppo. Not even a formal war - one which would have been justified by self-defense in international law by the way. But everybody knows that this is war against Turkey, because all these guys would be irrelevant without the Turkish support.
    Given that Putin does not bully anybody, this is irrelevant. But the world will no longer be bullied by America. The alliance between Russia and China has become a strong enough base for resistance now.

    Syria is, in fact, a test case for near future. It tells the world what to do if the US tries regime change in your country: Don't give up, resist. If the resistance is strong enough, you can hope for external support. And all this in full agreement with international law.
     
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  10. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    8,476
    With rebel forces facing the prospect of a crushing defeat by Syria's Russian-backed regime, their allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey may send in limited numbers of ground troops,...

    http://news.yahoo.com/syria-rebels-face-rout-allies-saudi-turkey-may-071955719.html

    ..............
    darned entertaining
    .......................
    and, following links on the picture:
    Related search results
    XYB09. Damascus (Syrian Arab Republic), 06/02/2016.- Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem (C, background) speaks during a news conference in Damascus, Syria, 06 January 2016. Any troops Saudi Arabia sent to Syria would return home 'in wooden boxes,' Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem threatened. Saudi Arabia on 04 February suggested that it could send ground troops to fight the Islamic State extremist organization inside Syria. But al-Moallem said that any military interference in Syria without the government's approval would be considered 'an act of aggression.' (Damasco, Siria) EFE/EPA/YOUSSEF BADAWI

    ..................
    what's that phrase?
    "That dog won't hunt".
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2016
  11. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Well, what you have now is a Mother Russia who is at war with its neighbors (e.g. Georgia and Ukraine) and fighting to support a murderous dictator in Syria while falling into a deep depression and has become an international pariah in the process.

    A couple of things, you are avoiding the issue. If Mother Russia would be so dumb as to start a nuclear war as you have suggested, it would be the world against Mother Russia. And Mother Russia wouldn't last long. It would likely be the shortest war in recorded history, less than 38 minutes. And the reality is, your beloved Mother Russia would be decimated - charred rubble.

    As has been repeatedly brought to your attention Mother Russia lacks the ability to deliver much of its nuclear weaponry. When Mother Russia launched its cruise missiles which targeted Syrian dissidents, 25 percent of those missiles crashed before reaching their targets. And Syria has no missile defenses. As previously pointed out to you, the US has deployed very sophisticated antimissile capabilities including laser weapons. Mother Russia has no such weapons.

    Oh, then why is Putin in the process of updating Russia's aged nuclear missiles? As has been previously pointed out to you, whither you want to recognize it or not, Putin certainly recognizes his nuclear missile capabilities are old and decrepit, else he wouldn't want to update them.

    And that gets us to the point, Russia's conventional forces are weak and could never pose a significant threat to the US or to the West. Russia's only potential threat to the West is its nuclear weapons.

    I guess you have forgotten Turkey, a NATO member state, shot down a Russian warplane.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    And Mother Russia didn't attack.

    LOL...shipping an obsolete defense system that it will never use isn't a military response. Here is something else for you to consider, Russia isn't supporting the Kurds, the US is. Additionally, the only parties who have attacked civilians here is Putin and his buddy Assad.

    Well, unfortunately for you and your beloved Putin, not everyone in the world are victims of Putin's state owned and controlled media. They have access to information and don't need to be told what to think. Russia's repeated invasions, occupations, and annexations of the lands of its neighbors very loudly disproves your assertion.

    Additionally, Mother Russia and China are not allies. The have an oil deal whereby Mother Russia will sell oil to China. That isn't an alliance comrade. Further, China is very dependent upon the West and in particular, the US. The US is China's single largest trading partner. I don't think China would risk offending its largest trading partner to appease a small faltering trading partner (i.e. Putin). The much vaunted 2015 Sino-Russia trade deal has fallen on hard times and much disagreement. Not to mention the fact China is not impressed with Putin's military adventurism (i.e. annexation of neighboring states). China is a neighboring state. And as previously mentioned, China's border disputes with Russia were only resolved a few years ago. Those facts are not lost on China. The Chinese aren't as dumb as you need them to be.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/04/w...-xi-becomes-strained-as-economies-falter.html

    How so? First, the problem in Syria is Russia's stooge, the guy who has used weapons of mass destruction against his own people, against innocent men, women, and children. It was the US which demanded he stop and demanded he surrender his weapons of mass destruction. It wasn't Mother Russia. Two, Assad lost control of his country all by himself. Syria fractured under Assad's leadership and as a result Assad is no longer recognized as Syria's head of state by virtually every country in the world, Putin excepted. Russia's buddy, Assad, hasn't controlled Syria for a very long time. That's why ISIS now controls a good portion of Syria, and that is why the US in in Syria fighting ISIS. Other than forcing Assad to surrender is weapons of mass destruction and preventing him from gassing his own people, the US has not taken any military action against Assad. The US could give a rats ass as to what happens to Assad. The US wants a stable government in Syria in order to prevent terrorists groups like ISIS from forming.

    Three, unlike the US and Western powers, Mother Putin doesn't have the military capability to project military force anywhere in the world.
     
  12. Yazata Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,909
    There are some interesting maps of the Syrian conflict from what appears to be a Canadian source here:

    The most up-to-date and topical:

    http://www.edmaps.com/html/syrian_civil_war_in_maps.html

    Many more here:

    http://www.edmaps.com/html/more_maps_of_the_syrian_civil_.html

    The latest map on the first webpage shows the Syrian army attempts to encircle ISIS east of Aleppo as of Sunday 2-7-16.

    That page also has a map of the area northeast of Latakia, showing the extent of Syrian government gains (with Russian air support) as of 1-24-16.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2016
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  13. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    5,003
    Today mixed news from Syria. In Northern Aleppo there is only small progress by the Syrian army and Hesbollah, they have taken control of a road from Mayer to the neighbour village Kafin. It is mentioned that this is also important, because this are has been used in the past by the rebels to attack the towns Zahra and Nubl, which are now outside the attack distance with mortars. The Kurds seem to have made more progress, they have made some progress in the South (securing in this way Zahra and Nubl from the Southern side and creating some security belt around Afrin), taken a village near a military airport, and there are even claims that they have taken Deir Dzhamal, which is the next big village North of Mayer on the road to Aziz.

    Good news from Southern Aleppo. There the local terrorists have used a few days ago the beginning of the offensive in the North of Aleppo (where, clearly, some forces from the South are used) to counterattack, and have taken a village. This village has now been taken back.

    Mixed news from Eastern Aleppo. On the one hand, success for ISIS - they have taken Assin and Rasm Al Jub. On the other hand, the Syrian army has taken some seemingly important hill. Battles in this region are ongoing. But a good news: Syrian army now attacking also from the other side, and has taken a village Taaneh.

    Nonsense. There was a war one week 2008 after Georgia's aggression. There was no war at all with the Ukraine.
    Of course, Russia would not start a war. The actual danger is that Turkey or Saudi Arabia starts a war against Syria, and that this war is escalated by the NATO toward a war NATO against Russia. Even this would not mean a nuclear war by itself - but a nuclear war would be started by Russia if the NATO would otherwise win the war. This is the official Russian military doctrine.

    If the nuclear war starts, it would not matter who is on the other side, because the only nuclear power which counts is the US, everything else is nothing serious. And it would be clear that as the US, as Russia would not last long, but above would be finished in short time.
    Fortunately, the US leadership knows better. So there is reasonable hope that they know that a nuclear war is not only the end of Russia, but also the end of the US. Same for all NATO states.
    Cheap propaganda, fortunately the US military knows the accurate information.
    Syria is defended by S 400, which is accordings to a lot of sources the actually best air defense system, and works also against missiles. There is information that Syria has an own S 300, which is the older and now export variant of it, it is good enough. Don't forget that the "invisible" B2 bomber was shot down by an old Russian air defense system already in the Kosovo war.
    That's your dreamworld.
    Of course, updating is a continuous process, which essentially never stops.
    They are not intended to be a threat, but a powerful defense. And as a defense of Russia, they are powerful. Don't forget that the Georgian army was heavily supported with NATO weapons, NATO training of the troops and so on, and 2008 the Russian army was yet in a much worse state. The result you know: One week for a total victory.
    At least the Turkish planes behave as they should, and no longer impose any danger to the Russian fighters.
    Wrong. Russia has supported the Kurds as against ISIS around the Tishreen dam, and supports them now against the beloved US "moderate" Al Qaida.
    Also a propaganda lie.
    They have military cooperation, but of course this is nothing you would know.
    And because they are not dumb, they know that in case of US success in Russia they will be the next candidate for regime change. And they also know that, different from Russia, they can be, yet, blackmailed by the US with a nuclear first strike. But if they cooperate with Russia, they are safe from such blackmail.
    Against a coalition of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordania, and behind them US and NATO which all supported jihadist terrorists in violation of international law.
    No. What the US wanted was regime change and chaos. Because Israel prefers chaos in comparison with strong Arab states. They think they are able, for long, to handle a civil war between 500 rebel factions, but are afraid of stable Arab regimes.
    This is where Syria is the test case. And it seems, Russia has the military capacity which was necessary to change the scenario of this civil war, and turning Assad from the loser into a winner. At costs which are paid out of the normal military budget (budget items training for pilots, utilization of old bombs, presentation of the abilities of various weapons to potential customers and so on) and already visible after four months.

    PS: what yesterday was "twitter only" seems now confirmed and established - Obin in North Latakia taken by the Syrian army. And, as a replacement, another "twitter only": The village Kafin mentioned above has been taken by the Syrian army.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2016
  14. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    5,909
    Accidental post. Deleted.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2016
  15. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    Unfortunately, it isn't nonsense. Mother Russia has for years now been at war with neighboring states and more specifically, Georgia and Ukraine. If there is "no war at all with Ukraine", then what are those captured soldiers doing in Ukraine? The fact is Mother Russia has annexed portions of each state.
    Oh, then how do you explain Ukraine? What you mean is Mother Putin wouldn't be so foolish as to start a war with the US or NATO. He prefers bluster for domestic consumption even though it makes him an international buffoon.

    As has been repeatedly pointed out to, Syria as a state no longer exists. It has fractured into a multitude of factions and is represented not by Assad, Putin's stooge, but by The Syrian Council. That isn't Assad. There is no Syrian government to go to war with...oops.

    Frankly, I don't think anyone cares about "official Russian military doctrine". If Mother Putin decides to attack a NATO state, the repercussions will be swift and devastating to Mother Putin.

    ????

    If Mother Putin should use or attempt to use a nuclear weapon on any NATO state, it will be the last thing he does. Mother Putin knows his conventional forces are sub par and no match for the US or NATO.

    The US leadership knows Mother Russia is no match for it either in a conventional war or a nuclear war, and Mother Putin knows it too, and Mother Putin isn't suicidal, that's why it is highly unlikely that Putin will ever attempt to use nuclear weapons.

    Facts are not propaganda comrade. They are just facts.

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    Shipping military hardware, especially obsolete hardware, isn't as you have asserted a military response. Russia didn't respond militarily when Turkey shot down Putin's warplane. Because Putin knows to do so would have been suicidal.

    No, it is just a fact.

    As you well know, this isn't routine maintenance. Putin is trying to update his aged nuclear forces. The very forces you claimed were not aged and in need of updating. Again, you are not being honest.

    Hogwash! Georgia didn't have NATO weapons. Georgia wasn't and isn't a NATO nation. It has never had NATO weapons. And the fact remains, Russia's conventional forces are not a match for US or NATO forces. And if Russia's conventional forces were meant just for defense of Russia, then have they been used to invade and annex the lands of its neighbors? Why are then in Syria?

    Well if you believe that, I have a bridge I want to sell you. If Mother Russia would be so foolish as to use that weapon in an attempt to strike down Turkish aircraft, it will lose more than a warplane.

    If you believe that system protects Russian fighters, send another Russian warplane into Turkey.

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    Yes you are wrong.

    Truth is propaganda. It's just the truth.

    As I previously wrote, contrary to your previous assertion, China and Mother Russia are not allies. Cooperation doesn't make one an ally. The US and Russia have cooperated, that doesn't make them allies.
    Seriously, are you that deluded? Among other things you share Putin's fear of regime change. Like Putin you see "regime change" behind every stone and every door. The fact is contrary to your assertion, Mother Russia has no allies of merit. It has what is left of Assad's regime and the tacit support of a few former and desperately poor former Soviet states.

    And do you have any proof of this? No, you don't, because it isn't true. Assad lost control of his government all on his own. It was his policies that led to the destruction of the Syrian state and the resulting chaos. It was Assad's mismanagement which led to terrorists states forming and governing large portions of what was once Syria.

    Where is the evidence to support your assertion? Like your many others, you have none. Because it isn't true. The US could care less, as long as the state doesn't become a breeding ground for terrorists as is currently the case or commit genocide as he has done in the past.

    Well, if you consider body bags a success....what Putin has done, is set himself up for a prolonged military engagement...an engagement he can ill afford. Russia is mired in a deep prolonged depression. It cannot pay its employees, much less support Putin's military adventurism in three states.
     
  16. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    5,003
    Ask them. There was no declaration of war, nor from Russia, nor from Ukraine.

    No. Crimea became part of Russia after its separation from Ukraine, based on a referendum in that independent state, and not on any annexion. The Donbass is yet part of Ukraine, even if it is militarily controlled now by a separatist movement. Southern Osseta and Abkhasia are independent states and not annexed by anybody.


    Who cares about your fantasies? For the UN, Syria exists as a state. And the latest UN resolutions about Syria do in no way question Syria's existence as a state.
    The Syrian council is an irrelevant club of inhabitants of 5 star hotels somewhere in the West.
    Of course it is more. They are fine now, but will they be fine in 20 years? Unclear. That's why one improves them.
    LOL. Tell your chiefs that the guys from bellingcat should not distribute such lies: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2015/01/19/how-did-american-weapons-end-up-at-donetsk-airport/
    In Georgia they have defended Ossetins and Abkhasians against Georgian aggression, in Crimea weapons have been essentially not used, in Donbass the weapons where mainly old Soviet time weapons, and have been used against an aggression from a Nazi junta which has overturned the legal democratically elected president. In Syria it defends the legitimate government against terrorists supported in violation of international law by some foreign governments.

    There is no annexation or invasion of any neighbors.
    If Turkey attacks Syrian airspace and will be shot, nothing will happen. You may not know, but even Syria alone, without any Russia behind, has already done this, and nothing followed.
     
  17. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    They were asked, and they said they were ordered into Ukraine by their Russian commanders. You are once again being blatantly dishonest. If Mother Russia's military was purely for defense as you have asserted, then Mother Russia would not have repeatedly invaded and annexed the lands of its neighbors.

    You are not being honest again comrade. As you well know, because it has been repeatedly brought to your attention, after initially denying involvement, Putin later admitted on Russian state TV that he had planned the invasion and annexations months before executing those plans.

    As also pointed out to you, Mother Russia refused to let any international observers or Ukrainian observers to observe the "referendum", and there were only two questions on the referendum, annexation now or annexation a little later. Granted, that's how elections typically go in Mother Russia, but it isn't how it works in the rest of the world. And you cannot honestly say a vote that a referendum with virtually no alternatives conducted under the threat of arms isn't a legitimate referendum. How would you like the US to come into Mother Russia and do the same thing to any portion of Mother Russia?

    And as you well know that Ukrainian "separation movement" is led by Russian state security officers and supported by Russian army infantry units.

    Well, apparently you care about fantasies. You are deeply enmeshed in them as demonstrated by your posts. As previously and repeatedly brought to your attention, Assad isn't recognized as the legitimate government of the Syrian state. Instead, the Syrian National Council is recognized at the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. So as usual, you are not being honest comrade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_Syrian_National_CouncilThe Syrian council is an irrelevant club of inhabitants of 5 star hotels somewhere in the West. [/QUOTE]

    Except it isn't, and you know it. The Syrian National Council is recognized by the EU, US, Canada, Libya,

    "The Syrian National Council (SNC)[1] is recognized by 7 UN members, the Republic of Kosovo and the European Union as a legitimate representative of the Syrian people in the midst of the Syrian civil war, with three of those being permanent members of the Security Council." Wikipedia (link previously provided)

    You are not being honest again comrade. They are not fine now, per previously referenced materials.

    Well, here is the thing, you are moving the goal post. You had previously asserted American weapons were in Georgia and were defeated by Russians. As I pointed out, that isn't true. Georgia has never been a part of NATO and had no US weaponry when Mother Russia invaded and occupied portions of the country.

    Ukraine didn't have US military hardware when Mother Russia invaded, occupied and annexed a portion of Ukraine. Ukraine may now well have American small arms in the country. But that isn't what we were discussing. Again, you are not being honest.


    Except "they" haven't. Clearly, Mother Russia has annexed portions of Georgia and Ukraine (e.g. Crimea).

    Do you not remember writing about the "referendum"? You are once again not being honest comrade, moreover you are contradicting your previous posts. The world isn't as dumb as you and your beloved Mother Putin need it to be.

    I don't know what you are trying to say. Turkey has the right to attack targets in Syria - remember those unanimously passed UN Security Council resolutions? And if, Putin attacks a NATO state, it will be one of the last things he does. And Putin knows it. That's why he hasn't done it.
     
  18. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,003

    Nobody has planned an invasion or annexion, there was none. There was support for the legal Crimean government, in agreement with the legal president of the Ukraine and the democratically elected Crimean government as well as the people of Crimea for the support of the legal order in Crimea in face of a violent Nazi coup in Kiev.


    Simply a lie, OSCE as well as many European parlamentaries have been invited as observers, the OSCE has refused to send observers, some European parlamentarians came, others (the politically correct ones) refused.


    I have no need to say, that there are two things to choose between is the standard situation in a referendum, the other one was independence and return of the 1992 constitution which was, at that time, the constitution which the people of Crimea have accepted, but which was later abandoned because of Kiev pressure.

    I would not object if, in case of a violent Nazi coup against Putin, the US would support defenders of the legal president Putin against the Nazi forces.


    Strelkow was a former security officer. And Russia has essentially blackmailed the Donbass leadership to get rid of him. Today he is a dubious politician in Russia. The base of the two Donbass republics have been the local oligarchs - the Donezk oligarchs, with Achmetov as their strong guy. Weapons were bought from the heavily corrupt Ukrainian army. And a lot of Russian nationalists came as supporters.

    There has been an escalation, with the Nazis starting a civil war, and bombing peaceful towns with aircraft. In this situation, Russia has supported the separatists with weapons. But, don't forget, with the approval of the legal president of the Ukraine Janukovitsh.
    ROTFLBTC, by a single "country", Libya, or, more accurate, one of the parlaments which claim power there. Even the NATO members have recognized it only "as a partner in dialogue or as an opposition group". According to your own source.
    To quote bellingcat - a cover of some Western security service which mainly distributes anti-Russian disinformation, thus, with all one needs to count as a reliable source: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2015/01/19/how-did-american-weapons-end-up-at-donetsk-airport/
    So the Georgian army had Bushmaster M4 rifles in 2008 at the time of the war with Russia. Bushmaster is not US? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushmaster_Firearms_International claims it is.

    It hasn't, because the resolution does not allow to fight ISIS violating international law.
     
  19. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,003
    Very good news today from Syria: Two towns, Ibta and Dael, simply surrender - the deal includes withdraw of militants, amnesty, and return to government control. In at least one of the two towns, the Syrian flag has already been hissed.

    The towns are located North of Daraa, on the street Nr. 5 Daraa-Damascus, which is, after this, completely under Syrian control. So, transport between Damascus and Daraa becomes much easier. Let's hope that this way to finish the civil war will become more prominent.

    That this can be repeated in the future is not implausible. Remember that the fight for Sheikh Miskeen, which is the Northern neigbour of these towns, has been very hard, over weeks, with many of the most fanatic islamists reinforcing the terrorists there, so the death toll among the fanatics was quite high, and those who have remained home are much less fanatic, so that the chance to find agreements with the Syrian government may be sufficiently high.

    Good news also from Northern Aleppo: Deyr Jarmal has been taken by the Kurds, and the taking of Kiffin by the Syrian army has been also confirmed. Al Qaida and friends have actually taken an attempt to retake it, but without success. Yesterday there have been speculations about cooperation between Al Qaida and friends with ISIS, but today there are again news about fights between them North of Aleppo, fine too, let the terrorists kill each other.
     
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Wrong again comrade, Putin's little green men were shooting at OSCE observers, and physically assaulting reporters and threatening UN representatives in order to get them to leave. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=47281#.Vriyy_krLIU

    "OSCE and UN absence[edit]

    On March 10, 2014 the de facto Prime Minister of Crimea, Sergei Aksionov, made an unofficial verbal invitation to OSCE to monitor the plebiscite.[94][95] However, later in the day, an OSCE spokeswoman said that Crimea did not have the authority to invite the organization into the region as it is not a fully-fledged state and, therefore, incapable of requesting services provided exclusively to OSCE members.[95] On March 11, the OSCE chair, Switzerland's Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter, declared the referendum as unconstitutional and therefore the OSCE would not send observers.[96] OSCE military observers attempted to enter the region four times but were turned away, sometimes after warning shots were fired,[97][98] which was another reason given for not dispatching referendum observers.[99]

    OSCE also published a report about their observations which "produced significant evidence of equipment consistent with the presence of Russian Federation military personnel in the vicinity of the various roadblocks encountered".[100]

    The UN Human Rights Envoy Ivan Simonovic had to cancel his trip to Crimea as the current situation did not permit his travel. He intended to observe the human rights situation which was Russia's explanation for its engagement in Crimea.[101]

    Non-OSCE observers[edit]

    Russian state-owned media and referendum organizers claimed that from nearly 70[102] to 135[103] international observers monitored the referendum without reporting any violations,[104] but objectivity of these has been questioned, because many of them had ties to far-right extremist groups.[105][106][107]

    According to Yale historian Timothy Snyder, the Russian government invited individuals belonging to European far-right, anti-semitic and neo-Nazi parties to serve as observers.[108] At least some of the international observers were managed and financed by the Eurasian Observatory for Democracy & Elections (EODE),[99][109] a far-right Russia-based self-proclaimed election monitoring organization.[110]

    Shaun Walker from The Guardian reported that during a press conference on the eve of the referendum, some of the aforementioned observers "went on political rants againstU.S. hegemony in the world", describing the press conference as "rather bizarre".[e]

    Exit-polls were allowed only for the Republican Institute of Sociological Research since, according to Russia-24, no other organizations have applied for accreditation for exit polls.[112]

    Allegations of fraud[edit]

    A Russian journalist claimed that she was allowed to vote even after admitting she was a Russian citizen with only a temporary one-year permit to live in Crimea[113] "According to all the laws, this is illegal," she said in one interview. "I am a foreign citizen. How can I decide the destiny of the Crimean Autonomous Republic of Ukraine?"[113]

    The chairman of the electoral campaign of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People claimed officials did not check carefully whether voters' names were on the electoral register and that some voters were bussed in to Bakhchysarai to increase participation rates in the city.[114] Mejlis also stated that only 34.2% of Crimea residents participated in the referendum.[115][116]

    There were few reports of people confiscating identification documents before the voting day. Simferopol city administration confirmed these claims and declared these actions unlawful.[117]

    A senior US official claimed there was "concrete evidence" of some ballots having been pre-marked.[118][119]

    According to three Czech observers, their attendance funded by Eurasian Observatory for Democracy & Elections,[120][121] deputy Stanislav Berkovec reported that the voting was free and the foreign deputies could move freely. According to his dialogs with people even the Tatars inclined towards Russia.[122] Another deputy Milan Šarapatka reported that the referendum was formally regular and that there was no evidence of pressure on voters.[123] According to Miloslav Soušek (the Vysoké Mýto mayor), everything was standard, the course of the referendum was comparable to the elections in the Czech Republic, he saw no soldiers in the town.[124] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_status_referendum,_2014#OSCE_and_UN_absence

    You have been caught in another lie comrade.
     
  21. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Oh, so Crimea is still part of Ukraine? No it isn't, because Mother Russia invaded and illegally annexed Crimea. And below is an admission from Putin.



    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31796226

    http://time.com/3752827/putin-media-kremlin-crimea-ukraine/

    So, as usual, the facts contradict your assertions.
     
  22. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    So you wouldn't object if the US invaded Mother Russia and annexed portions of Mother Russia as Russia has done in Georgia and Ukraine? Again, you are not being honest comrade.

    Ironicly neo-nazis are Putin's best friends, and as been repeatedly pointed out to you, Putin is executing the Nazi playbook...nationalism, militarism, illegally invading and annexing the lands of neighboring states based on ethnicity and nebulous historical rights.

    Well, Strelkow was just one of many Russian state security officer. Additionally, there is no evidence to suggest Strelkow and his fellow Russian state security officers operating in Ukraine were in any way "former". That isn't the way Russian state security works. He was and remains a Russian citizen. He was only relieved of command after Western journalists discovered his ties to Russian state security. It was a bit of an embarrassment to Mother Russia and Mother Putin - a supposedly homegrown Ukrainian revolt being led by Russian state security officers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_...issal_as_Donetsk_People.27s_Republic_minister

    Strelkow and other Russian state security officers were also involved in the invasion, occupation and annexation of Crimea as well as the so called "Donetsk Republic".

    "Andrey Illarionov, former advisor of Vladimir Putin, said in a speech on 31 May 2014 that some technologies of Russo-Georgian War, were updated and again being exploited in Ukraine. According to him, since Russian military operation in Crimea began on 20 February 2014, Russian propaganda could not argue that the Russian aggression was the result of Euromaidan. The war in Ukraine did not happen "all of sudden", but was pre-planned and the preparations began as early as 2003.[122] Illarionov later stated that one of the Russian plans envisaged war with Ukraine in 2015 after a presidential election, however Maidan accelerated the confrontation.[123] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014–present)

    The world isn't as dumb as your Mother Putin needs it to be.

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    The only Nazis here are the Russians. The only ones carpet bombing civilians here are Russians. And Janukovitsh isn't the legal president of Ukraine...one of those many inconvenient facts you like to ignore and deny. He was impeached by his parliament and removed from office.

    Cherry pick much....?

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    The Georgian army did have and may still have some Bushmaster M4 rifles. But the US military doesn't use Bushmaster M4 rifles....oops.

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    Except, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you and validated with multiple references, your assertions are simply not true. The UN Security Council has unanimously - that includes Mother Russia - passed a number of resolutions allowing any nation to conduct military operations inside Syria.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2016
  23. Yazata Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,909
    I don't think that the non-ISIS rebels are in danger of suffering a crushing defeat. But recent Russian military intervention has helped the Syrian government to go on the offensive and to roll back some of the rebel gains of the last year or so. The rebels may lose their grip on Aleppo, which they've enjoyed since early in the civil war. Hence pressures in both Ankara and Riyadh to do something to help their Syrian proxies.

    Both of these countries are much more interested in overthrowing Assad than in fighting ISIS. Both are ruled by Sunni Islamists and both see current middle eastern international politics in terms of Sunni vs. Shi'ite struggle. Assad is an Alawite (a heterodox Shi'ite spin-off sect) and the Saudis are militantly fundamentalist Sunnis (not unlike ISIS in their adherence to strict shariah, though without the apocalyptic aspects). The Turks (at least the urban ones in western Turkey) have been quite secular since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I. But over the last ten years an Islamist government has held power in Turkey, has purged the military command of secularist officers and has become quite autocratic.

    Saudi Arabia is armed to the teeth with American and European made weapons, but its ground forces are of questionable effectiveness. What's more, they are already up to their eyeballs in Yemen, fighting the Houthi insurgents there, without spectacular success. So while Riyadh is making loud noises about sending large numbers of troops into Syria, I think that it's almost certainly just posturing. They don't want to be sucked into two wars at once and they don't have the logistical capability to support a large expeditionary army in Syria anyway.

    Turkey is another story. They have a large and well equipped military that's up to NATO standard. Against the Syrian military (or what's left of it after years of civil war) the Turks would almost certainly be very effective. Turkey borders Syria and their forces are already in position. I think that a Turkish intervention in the Syrian civil war is a real possibility. If it comes, the Turks probably will target Assad's forces and won't be particularly interested in fighting ISIS.

    If it happens, what would Turkey's objective be? They might try to punch southwards along the Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Damascus corridor, to destroy Syria's government entirely. They could probably do it too. But if they did that, what would they do then? They would be left occupying western Syria which could turn into a very costly proposition. They could try to hand western Syria over to 'the rebels'. But which rebels? The Nusra front and Jaish al Islam? Or some weaker 'moderate' rebel group chosen by them, which would have to be propped up by Turkish arms indefinitely against their more radical Islamist former comrades?

    Or the Turkish incursion might have amore limited objective, perhaps securing Aleppo and protecting Idlib, creating a Turkish defended "safe-zone" for the rebels. That would still leave the problem of who would administer the safe zone. It would also divide western Syria into what would effectively be two states, one extending from Latakia through Hama and Homs to Damascus, ruled by the Syrian government, and the other a Turkish client-state around Aleppo and Idlib. (Eastern Syria is already its own de-facto Islamic State.)

    Turkey's other objective would doubtless be to slap the Syrian Kurds around as violently as possible. The Turks detest the Kurds and absolutely hate the idea of a semi-independent Syrian Kurdish statelet along their southern border. So the Turks would probably take over al Hasakah governate in the far northeast of Syria, the border strip west to Kobani and the Afrin enclave in the northwest as well. But the Kurds are good and experienced fighters and would probably mount a very effective insurgency against their Turkish occupiers.

    And what would ISIS be doing during all of this turbulence? They would doubtless see it as the playing out of their apocalyptic end-times prophecies and would be eager to expand to occupy any power vacuums that they perceive.
     

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