Is global warming even real?

True, but the intensity on the surface (W/m^2) does change at any location with the seasons. For example, Americans don't get sun burns at Christmas time.

 

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Well, bit of both, actually. Yes the days are longer in summer than winter as a result of the tilt, which will heat up the atmosphere and ground for longer, but also, for a given position in orbit around the sun, the hemisphere having the summer is tilted slightly forward toward the sun compared to winter, most pronounced at the poles, and thus receives very slightly more sunlight - being just that bit closer to the sun.

This is also compounded by the energy from the sun having the shortest line of travel through the atmosphere at the point on the planet where it is closest to the sun, and at places like the pole, where it could get sunlight for 6 uninterrupted months, it remains cold - due to the sunlight it gets travelling through that much more atmosphere.

 

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But you need some kind of support or argument - you need to be able to point to at least some evidence contrary to the "anthro climate change consensus", that has been rejected.

So far, you seem to be doing stuff like pointing to phenomena on other planets you don't understand and calling that evidence against what has been determined through exhaustive research and diligent application of theory on Earth.

 

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Well I guess we just add all the inexplicable events/phenomena to a list and when the list gets long enough and the consequences get tough enough, we might decide to take a look at why this list is so long and getting longer seemingly every day.

The fairly recent inexplicable changes to Saturn alone are staggering when you think on it

 

You are not wrong in your assessment. I agree I am being lazy. My excuse is that any evidence I may find that is able contradict the anthro climate change position will be denied objective assessment regardless...so why bother.

 

What consequences?

The list of things we haven't explained is quite long already, and can be made about as long as you want it to be any time you want; the usual explanation is that the universe is a big and complicated place, and its pretty hard to figure out why stuff happens - especially, you know, stuff that happens on other planets. But what has tough consequences on this planet has received more attention - that's a shorter list.

Why are you posting that on a thread about global warming on Earth? Do you think we are not paying enough attention to it?

 

I am posted about Neptune because to me it is a clear example of scientific denial, the same denial that the non-anthro GW lobby is being accused of.
I agree that the planet is generally warming, and that this warming is not simply a natural cyclic event. I do not agree that it is simply anthro in genesis. I believe that we are experiencing a massive and extraordinary natural change on a universal scale.

But still your question remains unanswered... Why bother posting if evidence can not be objectively assessed no matter how initially bizarre it may seem?

 

What you are doing with Neptune, QQ, is unfortunately cherry-picking data that appears to counter the mainstream scientific consensus, and claiming that there is thus a denial by science.

The data you select is... well... selective. You have picked up on Neptune appearing to warm, although the reasoning is believed to be that it's becoming Summer for the first time since we've been observing it that closely, possibly coupled to the sun's natural 11-year cycle. If not that then I would suggest that the mechanism is currently unknown.

So what of the other planets? Well, Pluto is warming, but it is not yet understood why. Mercury, Venus and Saturn are not warming. Mars appears to have warmed between measurements taken in 1977 and 1999 but this is attributed to 1977 being measured just after a dust-storm and 1999 being measured just before one. Since 1999 when they have been measuring it continuously there has been no apparent long-term warming. Uranus is actually getting colder. Jupiter has also shown no overall rise in mean temperature.

So that puts Neptune in context with the other planets.
Overall, across our solar-system - no apparent sign of warming on a "universal scale".

What this seems to show is that any denial, if there is indeed any, is your own: denial that the evidence you have picked is not representative, that it does not show the wider picture that you are trying to argue for.

As per my previous analogy - you are looking at the upward movement of a single stock-price and claiming that those who say the market is actually worsening are in denial of the evidence. Because you are not looking at that wider picture.

 

I appreciate your comments Thank you.
However,
I am not so much interested in "warming" persee but more the issue of climate change. For example Jupiter and change to it's bands of cloud etc may or may not have relevance to warming but certainly they appear to be significant and extraordinary climate change.
Saturn also has indications of significant and extraordinary climate change and so on...
You appear to be fixated with warming where as I am fixated with extraordinary atmospheric changes holistically and not just warming.
There appears to be significant, extraordinary and relatively recent change to planetary climates ( atmospheric conditions ) and that appears to be missing from the assessment

 

Perhaps someone else could suggest why that reasoning is terribly flawed.
Whether it be summer or winter the other hemisphere is always the opposite.
so balancing out the so called warming due to seasons.
It's a bit like claiming Earth is warming simply because it is in summer...ridiculous If you don't mind me saying so. Earth is never in summer... a hemisphere may be but not the entire planet.
Why have I had to repeat this almost axiomatic reality , that seasons effect hemispheres and not the sphere over all...
Saying Neptune or any planet with a axial tilt is getting warmer because it is in summer is crazy talk IMO

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Perhaps you are confusing orbital path rather than tilt?
Between 1996 and 2002 there is no sign of changes to the axis tilt...therefore I have no idea how they could conclude warming due to seasonal changes...which is an absurd proposition any way...

 

You seem to misunderstand the explanation...
The claim of warming, of the IR emittance from the planet increasing, is seemingly due to the albedo of the planet increasing - the increase in white cloud, the lightening of the blue etc.

This, it is argued, is most likely due to the seasonal change occurring in Neptune... previously the planet was not tilted toward the sun, as the planet was going through Spring - both hemispheres getting roughly the same level of sunlight / warming from the sun.
As the planet heads into Summer, the southern hemisphere is marginally closer to the sun, thus a temperature gradient forms between the northern and southern parts.
This, coupled with possible wind patterns that disperse the white cloud throughout the planet, is deemed to be the likely source of the change in albedo of the planet.
i.e. seasonal change.

No confusion this end.

It's not to do with changes in tilt but with which hemisphere is closest to the sun at any given time.
You do understand how seasons work, I assume?
During mid-Spring and mid-Autumn the planetary tilt is tangential to the orbit - i.e. both hemispheres are equidistant from the sun.
During mid-Summer and mid-Winter the planetary tilt is perpendicular to the orbit - i.e. one hemisphere is at is closest point to the sun while the other is furthest from.
Neptune is/was coming out of Spring and into Summer - i.e. the Southern hemisphere warming more than the northern, thus (the argument goes) creating conditions that give rise to the whiter clouds that are then, to a degree, dispersed across the rest of the planet, raising the hue of the predominantly blue cloud cover - the combined effect being a raising of the planet's albedo.

It's not rocket science, QQ.

 

Another thing to taking to account is that each season on Neptune last for about 40 Earth years. All we see in this image is massive change with in a 4 year window between 1998 and 2002.
To demonstrate such a dramatic change with in a mere 4 years in a 40 year cycle and then claim that it may be seasonal is not really sensible IMO
It would be expected given the dramatic nature of the changes seen that images for the following 6 year period would be available, but NASA/Hubble appear totally silent about it.

 

eh!?
I thought seasons were about duration of the hemispheres day, not proximity to the sun...
"the sun rises higher in the sky during summer" due to tilt inclination. but certainly the hemisphere is no closer to the sun...Neptune is a sphere is it not?

 

Then you are very much basing your views on just a few snippets of information - with the assumption that we understand what the status quo is on any of the planets - that we have only been observing for the past few decades in any great detail.
Neptune has a year that takes 164 of our years to complete - we have observed it closely for probably... what, 50 years at most?
Jupiter has constantly violent storms and has done ever since we've observed it. So what evidence is there that changes in the colours and banding we see are out of the norm? And bear in mind there have been several significant impacts in the last few decades on that planet.

As for Saturn... where are you reading that there is "significant and extraordinary climate change" going on there?

 

well given that we have a problem agreeing on what a season means I see no point ...

So I'll say no more and let you guys get on with accusing people of denialism regards AGW

 

Seasons are a fairly well understood phenomenon with a planet in a mostly circular orbit that has a significant axial tilt.
What exactly do you think a season is?

And where have you read that there is "significant and extraordinary climate change" going on with Saturn? I'm not being argumentative with this as I'm genuinely intrigued, as I have seen nothing.

 

hee hee.. you have a sphere elliptically orbiting the sun and for some reason you believe one hemisphere is closer to the sun than the other...in a way that would produce such dramatic global effects
Well ....when you sort out your problem with that let me know and we can discuss more complex issues.

 

So you think seasons are the result of the slightly elliptical path of the planet around the sun? Given that Neptune has less (about half of the) eccentricity of Earth, do you think this is true of Earth as well, that our seasons are the result of the eccentricity of our orbit around the sun?
Is this your understanding?

The "problem" seems only to be with your apparent lack of understanding of some fairly basic stuff, QQ.

 

We have a sphere that's tilted on its axis - so that on one side of the orbit we're leaning toward the sun and on the other side we're leaning away from the sun. The seasons are caused by the difference in the angle of the sunlight striking the earth - a lower angle when we're leaning away means less solar energy is absorbed - i.e. winter. This is pretty basic stuff that most of us learned around Grade 5.

 

You may not know that it is the 23.5 tilt of the rotation axis WRT the orbit plane, that dominates the effect of the distance from the sun in the Earth's nearly circular orbit case. Many are surprised to learn the Northern hemisphere is actually closer to the sun during its winter.