The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

Wrong. Why would you assume that?



---Futilitist

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By the way, the Dow just had its best 2-day point gain ever (though not necessarily % gain), up almost 1,000 points. I'm feeling pretty good about buying a bunch of stock on Monday afternoon!

Futilitist reboots this discussion every time there is a decent shot of negative news: this one appears to have been fools gold for him. A problem in China that prompted volatility in the US without a real basis for a drop, which meant a big drop followed by a big rebound.

 

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If the crackpots leave, the science quality goes up.

 

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I did. That irritated you. Clearly, you prefer jabs and gibberish to quality content.

 

[you already know, so this isn't really a response to you...]

It's like a suicide attempt: a cry for help, a stunt for attention. Not intended to actually be implemented.

 

Kind of arrogant russ; actually it is arrogant russ; on your part.

 

How so?

 

Because you come across as evaluation, judging someone as " no doudt " wrong.

Disagree sure but to be absolute, don't like it.

 

Not sure I said anything absolute, but regardless, as such things go the issue here is pretty straightforward. In general, though, the beauty of science is it is somewhat democratic and therefore self-correcting. So a forum that runs crackpots out because it is dominated by scientific thinkers will tend to elevate its quality. It doesn't always work, of course -- there needs to be a critical mass of scientific thinkers for them to be more significantly influential than the crackpots.

 

Hi Russ.

I think you are a authoritarian bully. And you are uptight and boring.

Hi river.

I did not know that Russ was in charge. I don't think his attitude reflects well on the site, either. He is trying really hard to ruin a perfectly good thread. Why do that?

Personally, I think this is a great thread! Very informative, interesting, and quite revealing at times. It contains a great many real conversational gems. Sometimes a really good exchanges can get lost in all the noise. Here is one of my favorites:

exchemist said:
The notion that there is a looming catastrophe, due to thermodynamics, which has somehow been missed by everyone in both government planning and in the relevant industries, is stark staring mad.

Futilitist said:
It is quite apparent from your reaction, and the general reactions from almost everyone on this forum, that people aren't necessarily very open to hearing about this looming catastrophe. People don't like bad news. And this is really, really bad news. Hell, it's pretty much the worst news ever.

If you were the President of the United States or the CEO of a major corporation, how would you break the news of the upcoming apocalypse to the world?

------------

He did not answer my question, but later on:

exchemist said:
There is no such thing as a "commodities complex", except possibly as a rare psychiatric condition, suffered by certain people. Anyway, whatever else may be debatable, what is absolutely for sure is the slowdown in China has fuck-all to do with the thermodynamics of oil extraction. It is to do with the natural evolution of the Chinese economy and the (mis)management of it. As any halfway decent newspaper article can tell you.

Futilitist said:
And the natural evolution of the Chinese economy is thermodynamic. Duh.

How would any halfway decent newspaper article announce the end of the world? What would the headline say?

exchemist said:
I would be fascinated to see by what argument the current property bubble in China could be attributed to thermodynamics.

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As for the newspaper headline, how about, "The End of the World is Nigh!"?

-------------

Note---Some time had passed, and, having still gotten no answer to my original question, I asked it again:

Futilitist said:
"exchemist said:
The notion that there is a looming catastrophe, due to thermodynamics, which has somehow been missed by everyone in both government planning and in the relevant industries, is stark staring mad.

Futilitist said:
It is quite apparent from your reaction, and the general reactions from almost everyone on this forum, that people aren't necessarily very open to hearing about this looming catastrophe. People don't like bad news. And this is really, really bad news. Hell, it's pretty much the worst news ever."

If you were the President of the United States or the CEO of a major corporation, how would you break the news of the upcoming apocalypse to the world?

So, anyway, you completely dodged the question. How about answering it now?"

exchemist said:
You seem to insinuate that the president of the USA and the CEOs of major corporations know that there is an impending apocalypse but are not telling people. Do you really believe this ?

Futilitist said:
Answering my question with another question is dodging. Again.

I am not insinuating anything. You are the one who originally insinuated that I must be wrong because no one in a position of authority has said we are going to have an apocalypse. You implied that if the President knew we were going to have an apocalypse, he would tell us directly. I just asked you how he might break the news. So, once again:

If you were the President of the United States or the CEO of a major corporation, how would you break the news of the upcoming apocalypse to the world?

It is a simple question. Just answer it. I won't let you off the hook.

billvon said:
He's playing one of his favorite games, which is "answer my question which contains my statement! Then once you answer it, I can claim you accept my statement since it's in the answer. Now ANSWER MY QUESTION!"

Another poster who does this often is GreatestIAm, who posts things like "Religions are fairy tales for adults. Should we encourage them to grow up?" Then no matter how you answer - he can claim a "win."

In this case the question is "If you were the President of the United States or the CEO of a major corporation, how would you break the news of the upcoming apocalypse to the world?" Anything you answer validates his latest apocalypse prediction. If you post "here's how he should" then he claims "See? You believe it too!" If you post "he shouldn't" he will reply "so you want to keep the apocalypse hidden from the people? Well, at least you admit it's coming!"

Futilitist said:
Bullshit, billvon.

I asked a fair question. Exchemist dodged it multiple times. Now you are jumping in to cover for him. Ha ha!

This started when Exchemist insinuated that I must be wrong about the upcoming apocalypse, because if I were right, the President would have told us by now. My point is that if there really were an upcoming apocalypse, it might not make sense for the President to tell everyone. Therefore, the fact that the President hasn't told us yet is not material to whether there is or is not an approaching apocalypse. Admitting that does not make me right or wrong about the apocalypse. See? Simple. Nothing to be scared of. You guys make it impossible to have a serious discussion.

But since you did jump in, why don't you answer the question:

If you were the President of the United States or the CEO of a major corporation, how would you break the news of the upcoming apocalypse to the world?

billvon said:
Yes, you are good at bullshit.
Once you are shown to be wrong about your latest prediction, as you were with your previous predictions, what excuse will you use?

-I wasn't wrong! We are all dead.
-I wasn't wrong! When I said "would not exceed" I meant "might exceed."
-That was the old Etp model. This is the Etq model, which is much better and 100% accurate, and we will see a 90% die-off of humanity before 2017.


Futilitist said:
Brilliant.

------------
I asked a really simple question. I still haven't received an answer from either of these two clowns! Russ would say they are being unresponsive!

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---Futilitist

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I asked an even simpler one!

I'll make a deal - you answer my question and I'll answer yours. If, as you claim, your purpose here is discussion, that should be an easy deal for you to make. If you are a troll who is here just to sow bullshit, then you will continue to dissemble and deflect.

The ball is in your court.

 

So we're turning this into a stupid, trolling leading question thread? Ok, I'm game:

Twitter.

My turn:

Have you stopped beating your wife? If so, when?

 

Futilitist

You mean well but slow down. In plain english what is your point.

Apocalypse.

How many people have the same thing over and over again; nothing happened.

That's the problem guy; to many have cryed wolf.

Now you maybe right and far more right than anybody in history; but you can't blame people for being at least a little sceptical. Right or wrong.

How about just filling people in as you see it week to week; every two weeks or every month.

Just saying.

Have a good day

river

PS; And no I'm not blowing you off .

 

Lol, good luck with that!

 

Perhaps but I give him the chance to do so.

He's got graphs and such , I don't understand them but lets hope he can slow down and explain.

People with a sudden profound understanding of an ology can get carried away. It happens. And that doesn't mean their wrong either.

Lets just read what he has to say.

 

Thanks river.

I'll slow down a little and see how that goes. It'll give people a chance to digest the info so as to formulate more thoughtful responses.



---Futilitist

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Thanks Futilitist

And it would be helpful if you could walk us through step by step or graph your understanding of them.

lucidly for us.

Oh by the way I assume the acronym " etp " means the economic tipping point.

You don't explain what " etp " means ; so I'm assuming I'm right here. If not please correct me.

 

Futilist, I am not aware of have made any argument involving the president of the US. Can you point me to where I did so, please, or are you thinking of something else I said?

I did reply to your similar question about a newspaper headline, as follows: "As for the newspaper headline, how about, "The End of the World is Nigh!"?

And so I suppose in the case of POTUS it might go:" Mah fellow Amrrrcans, the end is nigh."

But seriously, you now need to tell us why you are so interested in the answer to this question. I have asked you this and you have not responded.

You seem to suggest that experts and people in authority know of an impending catastrophe and are conspiring to it hush up. If that is your viewpoint you need to say so openly. If not, you need to deny it clearly. If you can do neither, we will be entitled to deduce intellectual dishonesty and cowardice on your part.

 

Futilitist you need to respond. To the last post#218.

exchemist it does no good to back one in the corner. Intellectual dishonesty, cowardice, lets not go there any more. Lets face it, would you respond under the same circumstances? Honestly?

 

wait for the pull back, which probably will be on monday or tuesday, good chance the indices will move sideways on monday, then dip on tuesday, then probably sideways in the beginning of trading on wednesday, then probably buyers will step in and create a floor. the fear is mostly coming from the money managers of mutual funds and shit. the hedge fund managers will probably be the ones who create the floor for the next two week move up.

keep in mind this is all just a thought.