Is Greece to be Putin's "Big and Better Crimea"?

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Which would mean Greece leaving Nato. Seriously?

 

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Hmm, so you think Greece will abandon NATO and take up with Russia? Greece cannot be a NATO member and have a mutual defense agreement with Russia. It kind of defeats the point of NATO. I don't see how a Russian defense agreement benefits Greece. NATO accounts for 70% of world defense spending. NATO is a far greater and more capable defense force than Russia could ever hope to become. Unless Greeks are suicidal, it makes no sense.

 

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No, not in the near term anyway; However, if Greece leaves the EU, anything is possible, especially if Greece is too poor to support NATO in any non- verbal way, and economically dependent upon Russia.

I suspect Russia will only come to Greece's aid financially if China agrees to at least "back stop" it with its trillions of dollar assets. I.e. part of the deal may be China gets use of Greek ports too. They are re-activating the old silk road with modern rail transport - would be nice for them to have boat extension of it from a Mid East termination into main land Europe.

 

Too weak to support NATO, what does that mean? NATO hasn’t booted anyone for failure to financially contribute. And how would Greece become economically dependent on Russia? As previously pointed out to you, Greece isn’t dependent on Russia and is not likely to become dependent on Russia, because Russia’s economy is suffering and its foreign currency reserves are dwindling because of lower oil prices and Western economic sanctions. As previously pointed out to you it would be foolish for the Russian state to create another very expensive dependency at a time when its own economy is suffering. Russia is already suffering the pangs of double digit inflation and a slowing economy.

That is a reversal of opinion for you, so now it’s China? Greece is going to become a Chinese controlled state rather than a Russian controlled state? China doesn’t need to waste its foreign currency reserves subsidizing Greek debt; it already has ports and lands in Greece.. It purchased them from the Greek government.
http://www.reuters.com/video/2015/05/15/greece-sells-port-remains-in-debt-storm?videoId=364238686

 

Nobody can control Greece, not even the Greeks.
It seems that the ecb decided to loan Greece more money after the Russians offered to support Greece.........
one wonders if these should be viewed as isolated incidences?

 

Except, the Russians have not offered to support Greece. The ECB (European Central Bank, not the EU) provided Greek banks with more currency today so that Greek banks could open for business on Monday. Greeks are withdrawing their Euros because a Greek debt default would necessitate currency controls and people would loses access to their money and they might simply lose all or portions of their deposit. The ECB emergency loan to the Greek central bank doesn't solve Greece's fiscal woes. It just keeps the Greek banks open for a few days longer.

 

On (1) Not exactly what I said. I said: Greece will give NATO only verbal support - no funds or troops participating in exercises etc.
On (2) Not a reversal. If any (in OP I estimated less than 50% chance) other nation has even partial control of Greece's policies, it will be Russia.
On (3) No. See reply (2).

In their mutual interest, Greece and Russia just yesterday signed gas pipeline to go thru Greece agreement. Russian experts (and perhaps some Russian troops to protect them and cooks to feed them their borsch and vodka etc. will accompany these pipe-line experts). If these troops do come, they may stay as long as American troops have in Germany et. al. nations - i.e. decades. I think Russian military "advisers" have already arrived in Egypt, to assist the military dictatorship there.

 

I may be wrong, but bet that is just "throwing good money after bad" - Russia not doing the same (yet?) seems more wise.

 

Yeh, that seems accurate.

 

Greece should 've left the euro 5 years ago, that way they could 've recovered by now.
Grexit now would be the umptieth blow to the economy,
and after half a decade of recession, you can expect most skilled labour to have left,
machines not being maintained/repaired etc, giving greece even less economic potential.
They should still leave, in their own interest,
but i doubt that any politician wants to carry the burden of getting Greece through the following (initial) economic problems.

Some kind of deal with Russia would greatly benefit Greece though,
if anything it gives them the choice where to go when they need help.

 

Well, Greece presented its most recent plan today which I suspect is a lot like its previous plans. But here is the thing, Greece doesn't have a Plan B, the EU does. Greek leaders just do not believe EU leaders will follow through on their threats. They might be surprised when they get bitten. Maybe the Greece needs to get bitten. It might help them think clearer.

If the EU follows true to form, they will kick this unpleasant can down the road once again as they have done with virtually all unpleasant issues in recent times.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33215482

 

stray thoughts:
keynesian economics abrogated by externally imposed austerity measures>
implies
no end in sight?

 

Except Keynesian economics has nothing to do with what has or is happening in Greece. There is nothing in Keynesian economics which advocates or endorses profligate fiscal policies.

 

Greece maybe finally getting serious. They have made a proposal which hasn't been summarily rejected. That is a change and perhaps some reason for optimism.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/22/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P10JN20150622

 

Well it looks like old Tsipras has managed to get his pee-pee stuck in a meat grinder. He agreed to most of the Eurogroup's demands today and pleading for relief, the Eurogroup said no deal until after the referendum he called has taken place. It's a no win for Tsipras. If he looses the referendum, it is the end of his government. He really pissed his fellow Eurogroup members off.

Tsipras's fate and the fate of Greece was sealed when he walked out of negotiations and called a referendum. No matter what happens now, Greece is screwed, at least for the short term. It will take time to call new elections. It will take time to form a new government. And if Greece should decide to leave the Euro, well, that doesn't solve their problems either. If against all odds, this is resolved quickly, the Greek economy has taken a severe shock and the government has lost a great deal of credibility. The Greek economy was growing prior to Tsipras's stunt. It's not growing now. Tsipras has lost all personal credibility with other world leaders. His arrogance and ignorance have cost Greece dearly.

 

Agree. Tsipras and Varoufakis have antagonised the EU for 6 months now, treating their hard work with disdain, slagging them off on domestic TV and so on. I see no deal at all involving this Greek government. Dijsselbloem put his finger on it when he asked how the EU could trust the Greek government to implement their side of any bargain, given their past intransigence and public campaigning against the measures involved.

I do not think Tsipras initially realised what happens if there is a "No" vote, but by now perhaps the heads of the Greek banks have explained to him that several of them will go bust, taking with them the life savings of many voters. So now I think he wants a reason to cancel this ridiculously worded referendum, which is on a proposal that is no longer even on offer from the EU. But Merkel, intelligently, wants to see him face the consequences of his own political immaturity.

The Greek people have only 3 days to suss out what the referendum really means, and they are getting nothing but disinformation from Syriza.

 

Russians are not docile at all. There has been more freedom in Russia than in (Eastern) Germany, during the Breshnew (late Soviet) time as well as now. Simply because the Russians do not care much about what Moscow or the governement says, but the Germans care a lot.

 

Mod hat - attached image removed per poster's request

Oh, and why do you believe Russians are "not docile at all"? You do realize East Germany was a Russian client state and ruled by Mother Russia. The unpleasant fact for you is that Russians have been herded by autocrats for eons, yeah Russians are docile. They are use to being ruled and lorded over by autocrats. Russians are use to obeying the whims and dictates of an overlord. It is their normal. Russians don't know what a democracy is like, except for a few years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russians have never had a democracy - Greeks not so much.

 

I don't have to believe this, I have lived there and know this.

Of course. And therefore I can compare how docile the East Germans have been, with how docile the Russians have been.

Feel free to believe this nonsense. The Russians have understood very fast what "democracy" means, and named it "dermocracy", which translates, roughly, "shitocracy". The Americans seem unable to understand this.

Many Russian emigrants in America have mentioned what the difference between the Russians and Americans is: The media lies are the same, but the Russians don't believe them, the Americans believe this ....

And the Russians can only laugh if one explains them how docile all the West follows political correctness.