Russian Economy

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by joepistole, Oct 31, 2014.

  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    The power to tax is the power to control.
     
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  3. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    It's more than just taxation. Russian oligarchs obtained their wealth from the state, and Putin has no problem using the state to confiscate that wealth from his political enemies.

     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I think selective application of a tax law (on to oligarchs Putin does not like) would be tough, even for Putin. I suspect motive is to force more hard currency back into Rubles.
     
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Big hope for EU to escape from dependence on Russian energy is dead, but just made public:
     
  8. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Putin didn't have any trouble with selective enforcement when he arrested and confiscated Mikhail Khodorkovsky's wealth. Yes, Putin is using tax law to bring foreign currency into the state. Putin is also using tax law to tighten his control of Russian media and to keep foreign out of the country.
     
  9. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    It isn't dead.
     
  10. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Nonsense. The energy market is global and the EU can import from all over the world, given the necessary infrastructure. In fact there is a surge in the building of import terminals for gas, precisely to reduce the dependence on Russia.
     
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I agree. Was not clear to state that the "big hope" was for pipeline cheap oil and gas, especially as their cheap supplies from the North Sea are in rapid volume decline.
     
  12. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    * read that report here: http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/w...tation-of-Russian-gas-export-policy-GPC-5.pdf
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    S&P should be releasing a Russian debt downgrade soon. Another debt downgrade will classify Russian debt as junk. European leaders reiterated their intentions to keep the sanctions in place and Putin has shown no willingness to back down, nor do I expect him to. It isn't his style. So the sanctions will remain in place indefinitely. And oil prices will not be where Russian needs them to be for a very long time. Saudi billionaire businessman Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said last week that we will never again see $100 per barrel oil and forecast oil will go even lower. I agree. Oil is currently trading between 45 and 48 dollars per barrel. I think we could see oil trading between 30 to 40 dollars per barrel in the not too distant future. Oil refineries will be closing down in a few months (i.e. March - April) and when they do, demand for oil will fall even further - albeit it's a temporary reduction in demand. I don't think oil prices will stabilize before Q2 at the earliest and if there is some resolution with Iran and Iranian sanctions are removed, oil prices could nosedive. The US imposed deadline for the Iranian nuclear negotiations is July 1, 2015.



    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/01/23/eu-russian-sanctions/22181767/
     
  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Probably not, but now the EU suffers with them too, especially Germany. It surprises me, that there does not seem to be well-armed, well-trained Russian speaking "volunteers" coming towards Mariupol from its SW side as Putin's aims for the region are becoming more clear. He wants a land link between Russia and Crimea.

    Even with more western supplied weapons, the government in Kiev, may be hard pressed to save Mariupol, the main city blocking a land bridge to Crimea. Mariupol is also an important port and center of production, mainly steel and related products for Kiev. I don't know if they have local coal or import it. Lost of Mariupol would hurt their already weak economy, as the recent Russian / Gazprom decisions have.

    It is now becoming more clear to me, why Putin has been sending the old heavy bombers on such long distant flights, even to Cuba and back. He is IMO, not too suitably reminding the west not to directly challenge a nuclear power which has more and bigger nuclear ICBMs than the US + UK has.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 25, 2015
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Putin doesn't have a more potent nuclear capability than the US. Russia (i.e. Putin) has 1,600 active warheads. The US has 2,104 active nuclear warheads. And then there is the matter of delivery, reliance on ICBMs is antiquated at best. ICBMs have been rendered obsolete with nuclear armed submarines and missile defense systems. And Russia's nuclear program is mostly vested in ICBMs and its antiquated bombers Putin is investing in so heavily are easy targets. Putin is not only trying to fight the Cold War all over again, he is trying to fight it with Cold War era weaponry. Personally, I think all this Putin sabre rattling is not for foreign consumption but rather for domestic consumption. Putin needs to make Russians feel good in order to tolerate his continued rule. Like all dictators, he needs an enemy. For Hitler, it was the Jews, gays, and the infirm. For Putin, it is everyone who is not Russian.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons
     
  17. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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  18. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    That is your link's table for the "on active duty" war heads. YOUR LINK states than Russian has more (8000, vs. US's 7315) but not as many on active duty - large fraction of US's are in subs, not land based is why this difference, I think. Also note Russia has always built bigger rockets and tested bigger hydrogen bombs than the US. US warhead yields are smaller as are the rocket that fit inside the subs.

    Yes you can refute my statement with very selective quoting of a source.
     
  19. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    There is nothing selective about it. Inactive warheads are about as useful as a car without an engine.
     
  20. CptBork Valued Senior Member

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    Many if not most of the "inactive" warheads are in need of reprocessing and refurbishing before they can become serviceable again, their nuclear fuel and other components decay over time and are already several decades old. As far as the "active" warheads are concerned, Russia's are reportedly in a questionable state of repair, along with the delivery mechanisms, and they can't even afford to maintain their existing force over the long term. That's one of the reasons Putin is so terrified of a missile shield being erected in Europe, when it's only designed to knock down a few dozen warheads (or was only intended for such initially). The other reason Putin doesn't want a missile shield in Europe is because he wants his buddies in Iran and Syria to pose a legitimate threat of their own to the region as a distraction/wildcard.
     
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  21. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    The US has more active nuclear warheads as previously stated.
     
  22. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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  23. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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