Well that interpretation stretches credulity given the circumstances. A material breach nullifies an agreement. The ceasefire ended with the UN finding.
The US completely ignored the spirit of the resolution, and in doing so gave the authority of the UN a blow from which it has never recovered since. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1441
I never claimed Russias GDP was 3 trillion I said the CIS economy was 3 trillion. THen I described CIS as Russia + IT includes 9 countries: Russia: 2,096,777 Kazaksthan: 202,656 Azerbaijan: 73,537 Belarus: 63,259 Uzbekistan: 56,805 Armenia: 9,950 Tajikistan: 8,497 Moldova: 7,935 Kyrgyzstan 7,225 somehow they still get up to 2,800,090 altough I can't see them reaching that number but I do the sum some other time
David Cameron compares Vladimir Putin's Russia to Hitler's Germany ahead of G20 summit showdown http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/david-cameron-compares-vladimir-putins-4631945 Incredible. Insulting a country that lost millions of lives battling against Nazi Germany.
It isn't an insult to recognize fact. And that is what Cameron has done. Putin is doing exactly what Hitler did decades ago, less the concentration camps. Recognizing and accepting evidence and using reason to develop conclusions is exactly what a leader should do. Just because Stalin fought Hitler after Hitler had invaded the Soviet Union doesn't give Putin a get out of jail free pass. Stalin and Hitler were allied before Hitler betrayed Stalin...one of dem damn minor details again.
Well that is your opinion and you are welcome to it. I didn't support either Gulf War. The US government and more specifically George Junior used false or faulty intelligence to make its case before the UN Security Council. I hold George Junior culpable for his actions. George Junior misled the world...something George Junior continues to deny. But in this case it is pretty clear. Russian troops have invaded, occupied its neighbors, first in Georgia and now in Ukraine. Russians are funding and supplying mercenaries in Ukraine. The mercenaries themselves have admitted as much. Putin has admitted those uniformed troops without Russian insignias were his. The leader of the "rebels" was a Russian state security officer. The facts are pretty clear in Ukraine.
Putin received a real Siberian welcome in Australia. EU ministers will meet tomorrow to discuss further sanctions. Putin had hoped for some relief. He didn't get it. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0IZ03C20141115?irpc=932
actually it officialy was 38.9°C in Brisbane and 41.7°C near the airport. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-...t-for-final-day-of-g20-leaders-summit/5894822 2.3° under the record for the hottest queenland november day
LOL, well it was if your name wasn't Putin. http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/14/politics/g20-summit-brisbane/index.html
I think things are more dire in Russia than most folks realize. Russia's chief asset is the reserves held by its central bank which amount to about 370 billion dollars - and that maybe an overstatement given the speculative and unreliable nature of Russian accounting. It's businesses have over 500 billion in foreign currency debt that will come due in the next few years, a 130 billion in 2015 or a quarter of the debt. With the price of Russia's chief export, oil, in a free fall that isn't likely to end so, it is difficult to see how Russia avoids default. Russia has spent billions attempting to defend the value of the ruble and I haven't mentioned the fragility of the Russian banking system. The outlook for Russia's economy was already bleak. But with Western countries now looking to extend existing sanctions to more individuals and companies and to add new sanctions to the mix of sanctions because of Putin's continued and escalating efforts to grab Ukrainian land and foment unrest, it really doesn't look good for Mother Russia. I'd give Russia less than two years. "Putin a good man down The immediate worry is the oil price. Mr Putin is confident it will recover. But supply seems set to increase, with OPEC keen to defend its market share. American government agencies predict oil prices could average $83 a barrel in 2015, well below the $90 level Russia needs to avoid recession (and to keep its budget in balance). If global demand weakens—Japan has slipped into recession since the latest round of forecasts—the oil price could fall further. That would immediately prompt investors to reassess Russia’s prospects. Then there are the debt repayments. Russia’s firms have over $500 billion in external debt outstanding, with $130 billion of it payable before the end of 2015, at a time when few Western banks want to increase their exposure to Russia. Even firms that earn dollar revenues may struggle to pay their debts. Rosneft, an oil giant, recently asked the Kremlin to lend it $44 billion. Mr Putin has so far resisted, but he cannot let a company that is 70% state-owned and employs 160,000 people fail. There is a lengthening queue of troubled Russian firms. Non-performing loans were rising even before interest rates were raised to 9.5% to defend the rouble. Meanwhile Russian banks are reliant on the central bank to replace deposits that their customers are understandably spiriting into dollars. Directly or indirectly, many of these bills will end up with the Kremlin, which is why its reserves will be vital. They are evaporating: down $100 billion in the past year, following failed attempts to defend the rouble. And the book-keeping is dodgy. Of the reported $370 billion reserve pile, more than $170 billion sits in the country’s two wealth funds. Some of their assets are iffy, including various stakes in Russia’s state-owned banks and debt issued by Ukraine that Mr Putin’s own aggression is fast rendering worthless. One of the funds is earmarked for pensions. In reality, Russia’s government has perhaps $270 billion of hard cash that is accessible and usable without massive cuts elsewhere—less than its external obligations due over the next two years (see article). All this spells trouble for Russia, but Mr Putin’s marauding foreign policy could accelerate things. This after all is a man who has invaded other countries and lied about it. A deeper foray into Ukraine would lead to stronger sanctions by Western countries. Some of them, such as barring Russia’s banks from the SWIFT international payments system (see article), could halt Russian trade altogether. A partial block on oil exports would fell the economy, as it did Iran’s. And the more trouble he faces, the more likely Mr Putin is to play the nationalist card—and that means more foreign forays, and yet more sanctions. From Russia to Rio, without much love Russia’s biggest recent economic crisis, in 1998, led to a government default. This time a string of bank failures, corporate defaults and a deep recession look likelier. Even so the pain from these could spread abroad quickly, both to countries that rely on Russian trade (exports to Russia account for fully 5% of GDP in the Baltics and Belarus) and through financial ripple effects. Banks in both Austria and Sweden are exposed. And if firms in one badly run commodity-driven country start to default on their dollar debts, then investors will worry about others—such as Brazil. If Russia’s economy looks likely to collapse, there will be inevitable calls in the West for sanctions to be cut back. This week Mr Putin pointed out that 300,000 German jobs depend on trade with his country. But Angela Merkel rightly stood firm. Actions, Mr Putin must finally learn, have consequences. Invade another country, and the world will act against you. And the same goes for the economy, too. Had Mr Putin spent more of his time strengthening Russia’s economy than enriching his friends, he would not find himself so vulnerable now." http://www.economist.com/news/leade...est-or-vladimir-putin-realise-wounded-economy
Former Russian Prime Minister predicts an economic crisis for Mother Russia . http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02cbhl8
Three possible outcomes: 1) Western countries give up and say, "just kidding" - not very likely 2) Putin gives up and says, "just kidding" - not very likely 3) The sanctions remain in place, Russia's economy continues to deteriorate at an ever increasing rate and Putin will continue to blame/scapegoat the US, his oligarchs and anyone or anything else he can to deflect the increasing anger and social unrest which will surely follow. This is the most likely outcome. It will not be pretty. The only open question is how far will Putin go to hang on to power. Will he continue invading neighboring states? This is Putin's "march into the Rhineland", but it isn't ending as he anticipated.
If it turns out to be true, it will be in line with expectations. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...meeting-could-mean-for-oil-futures-2014-11-24
Well the opec meating is tomorrow. They also mention that their S&P rating isn't in danger, that their economy budgets should be re-evaluated and that the EU is planning new sanctions so the ruble will probably make a dive tomorrow afther the 16hour pers conference
Yes the OPEC meeting is tomorrow, so aside from declaring something before it happened, contrary to the claim you referenced, their debt rating is endanger of a further downgrade. S&P downgraded it just a few months ago and has a negative outlook on it. Since the debt downgrade, sanctions have been increased and the price of oil has taken a serious tumble. I think a further Russian debt downgrade is likely. Another downgrade would put Russian debt in junk territory. So let's just say, the Russian press is being less than honest again. https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...-Standard-Bank-ratings-to-negative--PR_310494 My guess is we will see Russian debt downgrade to junk status in Q1 next year.
Well it's official, OPEC will not ease production. Russia had lobbied OPEC to cut production. I think we could see $50/barrel oil next year. Considering Russia needs $110/barrel, the future looks grim for Russia. I expect another Russian debt downgrade by June of next year.
Morgan Stanley has been recommending Russian stocks because they are cheap and speculation sanctions will be removed within a year. Russian stocks are cheap, but there are good reasons which justify those depreciated prices. I think Morgan Stanley is overly optimistic. Morgan Stanley is the investment banker used by a number of Russian entities. So Morgan Stanley's bullish recommendation might be influenced by its business relationships with those Russian entities. I think Russian stocks are going to get a whole lot cheaper in the months to come and prices will remain cheap. Neither side is going to back down.
The russian stock market is doing remarkably well. The ruble on the other hand is as low as it ever has been and dropping. I would like to say I doubt we will see the oil price drop to 50$. But a barrel of brent sells at 71.65 at the moment (it was 78, 3 days ago). That said I still think that wont be happening
