Solar flare risk

Discussion in 'Astronomy, Exobiology, & Cosmology' started by Mozart41, Aug 4, 2013.

  1. Mozart41 Registered Member

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    Based on the 11-year solar cycles, this year we may get something big. In your judgment, how much risk is there for a MAJOR solar flare that would disrupt power for a large area for at least several weeks?
     
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  3. Aqueous Id flat Earth skeptic Valued Senior Member

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    The same as every other 11 years.
     
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  5. Mozart41 Registered Member

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    I had heard that this cycle was more active, with more risk, than usual - comparable to 1859.
     
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  7. Read-Only Valued Senior Member

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    Even though we've still got a long way to go to make the power grid more reliable, we have come a long way in the past few years. Management - the ability to reroute, bypass and isolate to contain failures and keep them from cascading has improved considerably.

    So the answer to the question as posed - "several weeks" - is practically zero. A few days, yes, but not several weeks.
     
  8. Promo Registered Senior Member

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  9. KitemanSA Registered Senior Member

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    Just read that we very recently missed a Carrington level event by about 2(?) weeks, having a massive coronal ejection cross Earth's orbit where we reached two weeks later. Whew, dodged that bullet!
     
  10. R1D2 many leagues under the sea. Valued Senior Member

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    Situation dictates.
    If its like now, super hot with people straining the power grid with A/C in certain locations the probability is high, that power could go out for some time.
    I actually would not mind major outages due to solar flare. Maybe governments and states would fix overloading issues, and power problems in general. For the better.
     
  11. Promo Registered Senior Member

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    Major outages would be a terrible thing for most cities.
     
  12. R1D2 many leagues under the sea. Valued Senior Member

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    Yes Promo it would. And imagine like out west states running on the dam power. And a solar flare or something takes down the dam.
    Hoover Dam, once known as Boulder Dam and that dam goes down... Big issue.
    Or say L.A., Oakland, D.C., NY City.
    Some major outages would be more than Terrible. It would be horrendous, and disaster and a 1/2.
     
  13. CarolinaG. Registered Member

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    Minimized much? as per article in yahoo news - /sun-flip-magnetic-field-soon-204813979

    "It looks like we're no more than three to four months away from a complete field reversal," Todd Hoeksema, the director of Stanford University's Wilcox Solar Observatory, said in a statement. "This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system."

    Just as all the planets have been warming up?

    Somethings got to give
     
  14. KitemanSA Registered Senior Member

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    No, the dam won't burst. Indeed, seems unlikely that the water would stop running thru the turbine. Loss of power only.
     

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