i just watched a documentary called "a crude awakening" which discusses the increasing demand for oil worldwide despite the fact that we are clearly running out of it. the documentary had a very biased tone, along with a "theres no way out were all gonna die" type of attitude towards the subject matter I did some research on my own and unpleasantly found that there really are no valid counter arguments towards this threat.... what are your thoughts on peak oil?
I think this topic is rather touchy feely around here. Just ask OilIsMastery... oh, never mind. Don't do that.
I watched the same documentary and the point made towards the end of the film underscores it: for three dollars, you can buy a gallon of gas which can transport a carful of people 20 or so miles. This is pennies on the mile. Now imagine there is no gas than what? Rickshaws? Where else can you get miles on the penny with energy? Nowhere! Who is going to rickshaw you 5 miles for $1.50? Scary shit.
Because Peak Oil (or peak cheap oil) is a regularly-recurring subject of discussion here, I'll offer a few examples of prior threads. There have been many more than these. With yet another now begun, I hope we will carry the discussion further. Although the subject may seem worn out to some, it's among the most critical issues of our times. Oil Doesn't Come From Dead Dinosaurs Peak Oil by any other name is peak oil a hoax? Peak Oil is freaking me out There are a lot of standard references on the subject. I'll add some links at the bottom of this post for a little while. Personally I have no doubts about peak cheap oil. Peak oil already happened in the USA. In spite of the fantasies of those who promote the "Drill Baby Drill" initiative, the USA does not possess the oil to satisfy our demand at the direct (retail) and indirect (environmental) prices we're able to pay. Having consumed the easy pickings locally, the USA (still the world's most voracious consumer of petroleum) has become intensely involved in securing other nations oil reserves for our own needs. It is no coincidence that the world's thirstiest petroleum consumer naton has an incomperable number of troop deployments and military bases, with noticeable proximity to the largest and most contested petroleum reserves. In other words there is behavioral evidence that governments anticipate Peak Oil in the sense that King Hubbert postulated in the 1950s- to widespread disbelief (peak US oil had not even happened at that time). An awareness has been building ever since then, that the world's supply of easy-to-get and easy-to-refine oil is limited, and that world demand is likely to exceed that cheap supply soon. There is a lot of debate over how to define the moment when we will be descending the back side of the peak. I find the quibbling foolish, because we have a long history of human conflict over scarce resources as an indicator. Although some may be inclined to accept the premise that religious and cultural conflicts are spontaneously flaring, most international conflict today are in reality part of a ramp-up into petroleum resource wars. The United States is presently involved in a hurried and strained campaign of veiled empire. We are in a last-ditch effort to remain in control of the last easy pickings in oil reserves. Our opponents are non-cooperative states, and non-cooperative stateless agitators who are attempting to destabilize states that are cooperative with the US empire. The leading indicator of the approach of Peak Oil in my mind is the behavior of the world's most highly-mobilized but increasingly-exposed superpower. U.S. Joint Forces Command Joint Operating Environment 2010 Energy Summary(pdf): I realize that many people are still stuck in the debate. Some still believe that petroleum supply vs demand is not becoming critical. I don't consider that position defensible scientifically. It bears repeating to peak oil skeptics, that the problem isn't about running out of oil- it's about running out of oil cheap enough to burn as we are doing now. There is a shrinking time before us, during which we can best manage the transition into a more mixed energy-sourcing era. We can quibble over how much time is left in our petroleum heyday, or we can prepare for the inevitable transition now. We shouldn't really be debating whether change is ahead anymore- we should be forming consensus as nations and economies about what to do to ease our transition, and get harder to work on solutions now. We are entering a transitional period that is not entirely threatening for societies disposed to innovate. Those societies that fixate desperately upon petroleum are going to have more serious problems than those that are already showing the foresight (still under much criticism and controversy) to diversify and adapt. I don't expect the USA is going to go the way of the Mayans because we are the most petroleum-addicted country. If we cannot turn our intellects and industries to ensuring affordable sustainable energy we are going to suffer. We are already bringing great suffering and harm to others because of our systemic insecurities over oil, even as our society still represses sober thinking and debate about the looming implications of peak cheap oil. US policy is setting the tone for the transition out of the Petroleum Age. With an elevation of awareness of our options, we are not condemned to an insecure and violent future. This is an extremely important discussion, and I hope for the sake of the future that we can pay attention to this, and move our discussions and awareness substantially forward. We haven't got time to be talking in circles. __________________ Notes and Reference: ODAC Peak Oil Primer The Party's Over -Heinberg Reuters- Mexico racing against time at Cantarell oil field Peak oil: A detailed and transparent analysis -Hart, Skrebowski Energy Bulletin oilcrashmovie.com - website of the movie mentioned in the opening post Peak Oil For Dummies How will you ride the slide? - animated short Peak Generation - a peak oil blog
Americans are not a separate species. The USA is a powerful country that is insecure, and becoming belligerent about energy production. I know that the Avatar screenplay was written as an analogy of the USA, but the main intention was profitable entertainment, not an advancement of the discussion here. I have doubts that movie comparisons will advance our conversation much.
US foreign policy is indicative of the seriousness of the peak oil issue. The USA is taking extraordinary measures to maintain hegemony in petroleum-rich regions. We are militarily mobilized in pursuit of resources like no other nation, and also highly defensive about our being scrutinized for our belligerent posture. Of course this has nothing to do with genetic speciation. This is common bullying behavior, only on a larger than typical scale. The lengths that US policy and doubletalk will go to are (in my view) indicative of the repressed collective fears in our society about maintaining our signature petroleum-fueled lifestyles, consuming 1/4 of the world's petroleum production in the USA.
What i am explaining to you is that people did not pop out of the ground in North America. If the U.S stopped immigration (from ALL over the world) in say 1950 then its oil usage would be very low. You dont live in the U.S so you dont see that it is a nation of people from all over the world.
See for yourself: http://www.npg.org/facts/us_imm_decade.htm And that does not account for peoples children.
Well, that didn't happen, did it. Actually, I do. It's an increasingly multicultural world everywhere. I've seen that living in other countries too, but you don't even have to travel to learn that the USA is not unique or an admired model to the world in terms of multiculturalism, coexistence, or fair trade in resources, including petroleum. I'm affixing no such blame here. I have pointed out that US foreign policy is a clear indicator of our national insecurity about our energy sources for the future. I understand your sensitivity about the moral implications, but that's an off-topic tangent here.