Mexican Swine Flu. A New Pandemic?

Because of the protein coating of this virus it has a biological stealth approach to the body's normal defenses. You get sick but are unable to fight the bug. For those of you who want masks, and I suggest you get some while they are available, you want the 3M N95 mask. This is a required mask for health care providers caring for someone with the virus. These masks can also be purchased from building supply stores. Painters and people who work in insulation wear these respirators though they are more bulky than the N95 mask. To make a point though, young people who are normally healthy in a poor country do not seek out medical treatment early in the disease process. Actually the same goes for those as well in well off countries. Denial is a killer. Lack of information is a killer as well. Most of these people though will probably die of complications of the disease rather than the disease itself. We will see. WHO and national governments around the world have been ready for a pandemic for years, thanks to the avian flu paranoia.

 

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the 3M one is just one of the options. any mask rated as an N95 (US standard) or P2 (australian) is acceptable BUT you need to be properly fitted for the mask first to make sure it makes that tight seal. the duck bill masks are the health care defalt in australia, if they dont work there is an orange mask which i cant think of off the top of my head, lastly there is the 3M if the other 2 dont work. them main thing to rember is that the air MUST go THROUGH the mask or your just wasting your time and money

 

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"This is a serious marker symptom: Societies and corporatocracies that are short-sightedly, irresponsibly promoting and protecting the near-term status quo, and endangering us all in the long term. Potential pandemics need to be treated as a global fire-drill if we seriously wish to avoid not only the deaths, but the societal disruption that a real pandemic will bring if we don't practice temporary and voluntary containment."

Amen to that.

 

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Roman: "So what are you suggesting their, pinko?"

We need to rehearse early containment. The go-about-your-business platitudes are bad advice. If we practice interrupting and delaying transmission in episodes such as this, we will have a fighting chance at preserving our economies and societies intact in the face of an overdue, truly virulent pandemic. If we don’t, then we’re going to be tragically unprepared on a grand scale psychologically, logistically, economically- unprepared in every aspect, because we like to pretend things will just work out, and that authorities will tell us what to do, and we'll do it effectively unrehearsed.

”That we all put on stupid masks and stay home, or what?”

Yes, especially at the earliest detectable epicenters, people should take basic prophylactic measures, and unscreened travel should be suspended. Mexico initially responded with commendable responsibility- they made serious efforts at containment, that bought the world some time, and raised the (mostly unheeded) alarm for the rest of the world to do likewise. To the North, we took it progressively more casually, with official and corporate pressure applied suggesting we ignore the opportunity to examine and refine our response. Airline representatives are still chastising our Vice President for suggesting that anyone’s travel plans should be suspended (which is in reality a very good idea). Instead of rehearsing how to deal with a ferocious pandemic, we reinforced collective non-responses that will be both negligent and disastrous when a more lethal menace appears.

Mexico had the right idea. They didn’t create a panic. They got the public engaged in changing their routines, and in taking precautions to limit the speed of transmisson. But in every area where containment failed and produced a new outbreak, similar or even more-stringent precautions were not taken to slow and halt the global transmission that soon accelerated completely out of control.

As the virus spread uncontained, we further reinforced habits of complacency, letting things run their course. Travel and commerce were not interrupted. Screening was taken casually. So of course the spread of H1N1 accelerated and is now permeating the planet, just as a more lethal virus will do, if we do not learn and practice the collective behaviors of containment.

Practicing containment is not inciting panic: It is a defense from societal disintegration into panic, and potentially into all the negative official and public behaviors reinforced in apocalyptic fiction and movies. Contrary to what we’re being told, practicing containment is not economic disruption: It is an economic interruption, for the purpose of strengthening our economic and logistical systems for the long term. Cooperative containment is an exercise for the purpose of strengthening our vital trust in the durability of our societies in crisis.

The alternative to the exercise of proactive containment measures, and to their regular exercise and development (whenever threatening viruses emerge) is not only uncontained viral spread, but also uncontained despair. We're being taught that the alternative to business as usual is panic, and that is a dangerous lie. Coping with serious situations through rational and practiced collective response is not normal routine, but it's how we "keep it together" through critical experiences. We may not have many more test cases like H1N1 2009 before the real test comes, and we should be making the very deliberate best of every collective experience / learning opportunity from here forward.

We can sneer at the notion of global pandemic preparation and drills if we like. But giving the big picture some serious thought, and imagining our next encounter with the worst, cynical resignation is an attitude likely to bring us shame, regret, chaos, and death sooner or later. Our irrational egos rebel at the notion that collective action defends the self, but our higher brains can comprehend how homo sapiens has survived and will survive by meeting threats with highly-developed, ego-humbling cooperation. We've built our world into a structure that is highly vulnerable to pandemic (among other internal and external threats) and if we don't analyze our vulnerabilities and develop rational, practiced responses -a collective immune system- then we're likely to crash hard.

 

I know - the alphas getting culled - that's what I said. A good thing to happen now and then in nature.

Why did you Obama-card me?

 

iceaura's a pinko. Reality takes a backseat to his agendas.

 

So basically you're suggesting we suspend our rights because it will make you feel better.

No thanks.

 

I've made no suggestion about suspending anyone's rights. If (for example) you find yourself in a flammable, crowded location, and insist on your own personal non-participation in a fire-drill, I would be satisfied to leave you alone, so long as you do not impede the exercise. Provided clear situational awareness clarifying the vital importance of emergency preparedness, I am confident that most people will make a rational choice to participate in taking clearly-defined, early, and effective containment actions whenever pandemic threats appear. I'm also confident that educated populations will understand the value of the exercise, when a viral threat turns out to be less lethal than originally apparent.

We are not being offered much valuable education about pandemic containment today, because irrational fears and psychological inertia are clouding our collective reasoning and communication. Even though it is not being encouraged in major media today, try and place the spread of H1N1 into the hypothetical context of a much more deadly strain. Our awareness of how we can and should respond is being irresponsibly impeded, and we are now being conditioned to respond with dangerous inaction in the face of a pandemic threat during the most critical first days.

The rapid global spread of a virulent pandemic would be greatly mitigated by temporary changes in travel patterns from outbreak regions. This is not what our corporate nannies want you to contemplate, but it's true. In the case of a massively lethal pandemic, the rapid global spread of panic in such a situation will be much accelerated and aggravated by the lack of a coherent global response, that we can be develop now, especially in the highly instructive context of less-lethal outbreaks, such as those presently involving A-H1N1.

Your resistance to considering real containment (not to suggest you're alone- it's being institutionally and popularly reinforced) is irrational and it is irresponsible. We're squandering a golden opportunity to bolster our biological, economic, and societal defenses. We're presently ignoring the best chance we may ever get to enhance our collective situational awareness about the serious pandemic threat inherent in traveling habits that we dangerously assume can't be paused.

When a more dangerous strain breaks out, the segments of global transportation that we don't have the foresight to pause intelligently will be much more severely disrupted in the course of uncontained outbreaks. The same goes for our economies, the stability of our societies, and the protections of our rights and privileges.

 

Fact Checking Joe Biden: The Science Of Flu Exposure On Planes

Here's some information on the contagion aspect aboard airliners. The epidemiology aspect is still largely taboo in our media, and is only tangentially addressed in this brief and relatively obscure article. So far, those who pre-emptively panic about panic have effectively squelched the Vice President.

 

I'm going to just throw this one out there. Read the article, though I'm not exactly sure just how credible it is.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13356

 

I didn't specifically card you. I just pulled it to pull it. Got it in a text and felt like repeating it.

Is this not my GOD GIVEN RIGHT? (puts up dukes)

Kidding...

 

No one is pushing a vaccine yet, and the public health folks in my area have specifically and repeatedly stated that no vaccine currently available is worth taking at this time by the general public for protection against this flu.

The 1976 flu shot mess is a famous example of confused public health response, and most US public health officials have studied it at some time in their career or education. We probably won't see that scene again - better communication, at a minimum.

The article seems to go overboard in creating fear of vaccines - if a vaccine is developed for this particular strain of flu, and it goes pandemic and starts killing people as in 1918, and you have a chance to get vaccinated with that specifically developed vaccine, you'd be a fool not to take it - just for your own benefit, never mind the community.

 

iceaura: "just for your own benefit, never mind the community."

That is precisely the losing way to succumb to a killing pandemic- Every Man For Himself = Accelerated Transmission = Epic Fail. That's what It will feed on.

Stop and think. Think, and Stop.

There won't be time for a vaccine to save you, if we can't contain the outbreaks with simple rational routine: Travel stops from hotzones, and within a hotzone one can take all reasonable precautions (which do not include behavior threatening to others, including flight) and maintain high personal probability of survival. This simple response will provide the greatest protection for all- including those caught up in an outbreak.

There will be much less help for those of us caught up in virulent outbreaks if there is no containment.

Vaccines come after the onslaught. Most of us will have no part in developing vaccines. But how we all respond during the initial onslaught is what will make the biggest difference of all. It's a colossal pity, that we may have to experience this, before we accept the reality.

 

Fear of vaccines will not help - it's possible to make things worse, even after the failure of containment.

And that's the level we're actually at, if the lessons of this outbreak (if it turns out well, instead of as it still may be the pandemic we've been expecting for a couple of generations now) are brought soberly to attention. This thing was loose before it was identified.

 

iceaura: "Fear of vaccines will not help."

That's true. But we cannot develop and distribute a vaccine in time to influence the spreading stage of a pandemic. Vaccines come into the equation very late in a complacent-containment window. Concerted containment would not only buy time for effective vaccination. Containment would also greatly reduce the vaccine quantity and distribution efforts required, months after first detection, when we can expect vaccines to become available. There will always be a lot more time to educate people about vaccines, than there will be to inform them about the hows and whys of containment.

"This thing was loose before it was identified."

In mid April there was time to contain it- within the Americas, if not within Central America. We don't know how well we can contain a virus, because foolishly we haven't ever really tried. If this were to mutate into something more deadly tomorrow (as the 1918 pandemic did), serious containment attempts would now begin. Containment would still save lives and fortunes, especially in Africa and Oceania, and community-by-community elsewhere. At such a late stage, containment measures would be far more desperate, and prone to disorder and abuses of authority.

Had we reacted with serious containment in mid to late April, A/H1N1 would not have spread so far so fast. More importantly, the world would be far more psychologically prepared, better informed, and ready to take real containment measures when the next threat appears. But instead, our behavior is analogous to a population conditioned to watch a fire spread all across a city before taking any action. We're being programmed to "let the authorities handle it". A much more lethal pandemic is likely to begin with the same short-sighted greed and fear-based repression of informed public reaction. Our reactions to a more serious threat are likely to be disastrously confused and impeded if the corrupt containment education that we are suffering now is allowed to continue.

 

Here are some scientific papers I've found interesting exploring this subject (not necessarily supporting my own opinion):

Brockmann, Hufnagel, Geisel: Forecast and Control of Epidemics in a Globalized World

Brockmann, Hufnagel, Geisel: The Scaling Laws of Human Travel (excerpt, pdf)

Osterholm: Preparing for the Next Pandemic

CDC: Frequently Asked Questions about Use of Community Containment Measures

Day, Park, Madras, Gumel and Wu: When Is Quarantine a Useful Control Strategy for Emerging Infectious Diseases?

Halloran, Ferguson, Eubank, Longini, Cummings, Lewis, Xu, Fraser, Vullikanti, Germann, Wagener, Beckman, Kadau, Barrett, Macken, Burke, and Cooley: Modeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the United States (pdf)

 

If you are healthy, would catching this flu necessarily be such a bad thing?

Exposure to this mild form might immunise you against a future deadlier version.

 

May 02, 2009
Swine Flu in Perspective

Outbreak! was the title of the movie released in 1995 about an Ebola epidemic, inspired by news reports of outbreaks of the deadly virus in Africa. Some experts opined that "it could happen here" and that it was just a matter of time before Ebola would show up in the US. Never one to play along, I posted a sign in my office in 1996 that if Ebola broke out here I would move to Africa and live with the monkeys. I am still here.


In 2003 a horrible new disease was spreading out of Asia. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Distress) had the potential to cause a worldwide pandemic. My waiting room looked like the inside of a Bombay bus during rush hour as crowds of patients impatiently waited for me to reassure them that the dripping nose they had was not SARS. After all, the WHO, the CDC and CNN all told them that doomsday was likely only weeks away.


"We are counting down to a pandemic," said Guan Yi, a professor at the University of Hong Kong who helped trace the outbreak of SARS in 2003.


I was seeing patients from 8Am until 6PM daily, then returning phone calls until late night, consoling poor souls who were sure they had seen their last days. I ended up with pneumonia, but unfortunately for me, it was not SARS and I had to keep working. Had I contracted SARS, at least I could have gotten some rest.


So, whatever became of this "Andromeda Strain"?


World Health Organization (WHO): "8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died. In the United States, only eight people had laboratory evidence of SARS infection".


About 56 million people die yearly in the world. SARS caused .00001% of those deaths in 2003, fewer than those caused by choking on a bean! Yet the press had a field day and billions of dollars were spent on a threat that never materialized.


When 2004 passed without a real health crisis, the media were purposeless. Thankfully, Avian (bird) Flu came along and was all the rage by 2005. This one, we were told, was the big one. Continuous news coverage included video of people in Asia wearing masks and destroying chickens. Experts from the WHO, CDC and, I think, even KFC (Kentucky Fried Chicken), were on every newscast proclaiming the coming of avian Armageddon.


Again, I saw many terrified patients and I tried to put things into perspective for them. How could they ignore the evidence? Why, it was as good as the evidence for global warming.


"Bird Flu Pandemic Imminent" MSNBC Report Feb 23, 2005


"The risk of Pandemic is great" WHO, 2005


"Avian Flu represents a real pandemic threat". European Public Health Alliance, 7/2005


"Bird Flu spreading rapidly", US government warns population. 2006


In fact, the likelihood of a Chinese person dying from bird flu was .00005% . The probability of dying by a lightning strike in the US was about 100 times greater than the risk of a Chinese person dying of Bird Flu. If you were afraid of bird flu, I advised my patients, certainly don't go out in the rain.


The WHO data on Avian Flu, that terrible mutating monster that was then to be another 1918 pandemic, can be found at this link. In mid 2005 it was thought to have caused 54 deaths in China, the absolute least important cause of death recorded. In fact, later data showed it had been responsible for only five deaths in China in 2005. Later data showed that over seven years, this terrible virus was responsible for a whopping 25 deaths in China. From a peak of 115 deaths worldwide in 2006, the dreaded Avian flu was the cause of death of only 33 people in 2008. Terrifying!


In 1918, nearly half of the 675,000 Americans killed by the influenza pandemic had been in the trenches of Europe fighting a war. They had been dirty, cold, wet, underfed, and exhausted. Stateside there was no real scientific understanding of the disease. There were no effective medications and no antibiotics for secondary pneumonia. Most Americans had access to only primitive health care. While it is true that 40 million people died of this disease worldwide, we must understand the circumstances then and also that today, we live in an advanced country with excellent health care essentially available to all in an emergency.


In 1957-1958, about 70,000 Americans died from the "Asian" flu. In 1968 the "Hong Kong" flu killed around 34,000 Americans. Interestingly, the total death rate in 1968 did not increase, indicating that most of the victims were already quite unhealthy.


In 1976 "Swine Flu" turned up in a soldier at Fort Dix, resulting in his death and the quarantine of his close contacts. Alarmed experts convinced President Ford to take action. Some 40 million Americans were inoculated before the program was scrapped.


During this "pandemic" more people died in the US from the vaccination than from the disease. Another outbreak in 1988 killed one woman, who contracted the disease while pregnant. She sadly succumbed soon after her healthy baby was delivered. Her husband, who also contracted the disease, recovered completely.


Swine Flu, known since the 1930's, has now returned. Again, the WHO sounded the alarm, raising the "threat level" to 5. To be fair, the disease will be more of a threat in underdeveloped countries and we see the higher death rate in Mexico as evidence of that. It is, predictably, being compared to the flu pandemic of 1918. Medical experts fill our television screens, talking about "N" this and "H" that urging that the federal government spend more money to combat this new microscopic doomsday monster.


Look at the facts in the light of the other potential disasters described above. Remember that a good crisis means that somebody is spending money and somebody is making money. Rahm Emanuel advised never to waste a good crisis. In the case of a public health crisis, it is the government, hence the taxpayer, that is spending money. When you hear an influenza research scientist raising the specter of a possible pandemic, you should also visualize large sums of money going from your pocket to his.


Finally, 36,000 people die from Influenza every year in this country. That's 100 people a day on average! Sadly, a baby from Mexico died in Texas from the Swine Flu. There will likely be more deaths here, but not in the numbers some would have you believe. However, about 100 people in the US die from the typical flu every day. Swine flu is a flu! Of course, every life is precious. But more Americans die from car accidents than the flu. Do we need to be vigilant? Of course. Should we foment panic? Absolutely not.


If you develop symptoms such as a severe cough, shortness of breath, fever, chills, nausea or vomiting, see your doctor. Always take precautions to prevent the spread of any illness to others. Most importantly, wash your hands often. But, live your life fully, not fearfully. You are in much more danger from panic than from the Swine Flu itself. Oh, and eating pork is of no danger at all, unless you intend to try to eat it while it is still moving.


http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/swine_flu_in_perspective.html

 

Captain Kremmen: "If you are healthy, would catching this flu necessarily be such a bad thing?

Exposure to this mild form might immunise you against a future deadlier version."

You're right: Building/discovering immunity may be important, now that A/H1N1 has been allowed to disperse, mostly unhindered. As you say, in case of a more dangerous mutation of the same strain breaking out in a second wave, immunity boosts from exposure (and vaccination) before northern-hemisphere winter will be prudent.

Since the initial A/H1N1 outbreak is not highly lethal, it may have a net benefit in terms of immunity. All the more so, if the experience gives the world second thoughts about dismissing and rejecting early containment measures when a more lethal strain emerges in the future- by chance or design.

If we think about collective participation in early response as an exercise in developing stronger psychosocial immunity worldwide, we may also recognize a potential to better respond to and meet to all sorts of global challenges. Because A/H1N1 did not carry the initial lethal punch that it might have, it may ultimately make us stronger- especially if we treat this experience as an opportunity for learning as a mutually-aware, collectively psycho-immunizing global species.

 

Frank S. Rosenbloom: "You are in much more danger from panic than from the Swine Flu itself."

Let's be clear, that an early containment response to pandemic threats would not be equivalent to panic. It is well understood that well-reasoned, practiced initial response provides us with much more robust emotional control in crisis. I'm very familiar with, and apply this aspect of psychology in my own profession as a flight instructor. I'm certain that in the face of a threatening pandemic, rehearsed coping will reduce panic.