Ok, I'm interested to hear what you intelligent people have to say about this. Here's some scenarios I thought of, and I'm sure many people know more about these things than I do. Because we're talking WORLD war here, I want to know where it's going to START. Iran vs. Brittain/America. Current situation spirals out of control. Military retaliation by US/UK. World goes to shit. Iran vs. America. Iran escalates involvement in Iraq, and against all advice, US escalates conflict with Iran. World goes to shit. Iraq vs. Iraq. US pulls out and Iraq descends into civil war. Iran moves in from the East. Saudi Arabia moves in from the South. Or Turkey from the North. World goes to shit. China vs. India. Current industrialisation in China and India turns into an arms race. World goes to shit. China vs. Japan. Changes to constitution in Japan overturns decades of pacifism. Military buildup destabilizes relations. Perhaps coupled with the next one. World goes to shit. China vs. US. Taiwan declares independance. China invades. US intervenes. World goes to shit. China vs. the West. UN peace keepers go into Sudan against regimes wishes. China, moves to protect its energy interests. World goes to shit. N. Korea vs. S. Korea. Current talks dissentigrate. Washington discovers that Kim Jong Il is actively shopping its nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations and retaliates. N. Korea fires nukes towards S. Korea and Japan. I left something out. There's something I missed, and aparently I need to listen to more BBC.
I thought of a few more. Too bad I can't edit the poll. Russia vs. former Soviet bloc states. Russia, seeing growing western influences in former Soviet bloc states attempts to assert its influence. The west intervenes. World goes to shit. Somalia vs. Ethiopia. Islamic courts gain more and more support from local tribal leaders, as well as militant support from other Middle East nations. America intervenes on behalf of the Ethiopians/provisional government. World goes to shit.
I don't see how either of those scenarios could lead to a world war. Who's going to side with Iran? Syria, maybe? It would be more of a commercial for American air power than a world war. Yeah, the region would be a mess afterwards, and it would be hugely taxing on America to occupy said countries, but the actual combat phase would be over with in short order. Basically a repeat of the Iraq war. Again, I don't see how this could get any worse than a regional conflagration. I don't see how you can have a world war if America's not involved, which is a prerequisite of this scenario. I don't see where anybody outside the region would get involved in this. Zero chance of China intervening militarily in Sudan, not that they have the means to do so in the first place. Their energy interests in Sudan are not significant enough to justify a world war, and anyway they have a veto in the UN. Again, not much of a world war. North Korea would be annihilated by a nuclear strike before their missiles even reached Japan. China is certainly not going to come to their rescue in such a scenario, so there's no potential for escalation to a world war. Lots of casualties and destruction, but it'd be over in a matter of hours.
Again, I don't see this escalating beyond the level of a small regional conflict. We basically had this war a couple of months ago, and it barely even made the news.
the atomic bomb put an end to world wars. if any nation, no mater which one, decides to deploy nuclear weapons the international community will smash the crap out of them.
Well, for starters I agree with you that none of these conflicts is PRESSING, and that we may have to extrapolate some of these scenarios arbitrarily far into the future. This is probably a pretty pointless endeavor. But with China demanding a larger presence on the world stage, I do wonder about the possible ramifications of UN action in the Sudan. I do know that the Chinese are spending a lot of money in places like the Sudan, and seemingly have no conscience about their investments. The same could be said of the US, though---we have been propping up the Saudi Arabian regime for a long time, and we don't have a very clean history. I can also imagine a time when wars may be fought over carbon emissions. But this, too, is pretty far removed from todayPlease Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
BenTheMan, and the History of Communist China? how clean is that, China will be the instigator, through one of their trigger men, Do some research on how deep the influence of China extends into the world with bribery, black mail, and coercion, they have very deep tentacles into the Democratic party and even into the Republicans.
There is certainly no doubt about this. But as for being associated with any sort of interventionism, I disagree. I don't want to claim that China has a "clean history" (how many students were massacred in Tienanmen Square?), merely that they have been isolationists traditionally. If China is destined to become a super power, then that policy is likely to change, just as the US policy of isolationism changed after WW2, as did the Soviets.
North Korea is pretty isolated. I think the only real threat from them is towards South Korea. If that happens, then the US and China may get tangled up in a big mess.
A new 'world war' wouldn't be like the last two. It won't be big superpowers and proxy states vs. other big superpowers and proxy states. It won't be between the most wealthy and advanced nations either. I think WW3 would be ONE superpower at war with dozens of 'terrorist/freedom fighter' groups inside dozens of countries. Like the USA at war with Islam and all 40 or so of her countries plus the US at war with a Leftist Latin American Alliance and the US at war against a Russia/China/India alliance. There's too much to lose for developed nations to be at war with eachother. We're all economically connected. But a US war on the world is the most likely stage for what could be dubbed WW3.
I say the following scenarios are most likely: China v. US over Taiwan. China v. India (the two countries have been at eachother's throats before and I can see it happening again). North Korea v. South Korea.
Hi, Ben, History is one of my great loves - man's interaction with man. And besides studying it as far back as possible I've also tried (with a good deal of success) to keep current on it ever since the mid-1950s. My take on your question is that none of the described scenarios are even remotley likely. The world is a far different place than it was at the time of the first and second world wars. And it's even a far different place than it was in the 1960s when the former USSR tried to establish a missle base in Cuba - and showed it actually had the good sense to realize the risks involved and pulled out. Today, the world is a much smaller place and pratically every nation of any importance is dependent to some degree on each other. Either through trade or aid or trade AND aid. And even China is having great difficulties keeping all it's internal failures (mine disasters, pollution, etc.) a secret from the entire world like it used to be able to so. The point of that last part being that early-warning signals would be recognized in plenty of time to find political/diplomatic/ecomonic solutions favorable to all involved well in advance of any potential armed conflict. Sure, there are notable instablilities in the world - Iran and North Korea being the most obvious. But if they decided to take anyone on, they'd basically be alone in that effort and would be swatted down just as quickly as Iraq was. And no nuclear force used against them, either. No one would want to back their foolish efforts and risk the consequences of the harm it would do to them economically and politically. For example, North Korea and China. Do you suppose China would dare endanger a total trade embargo with the US? China needs us FAR more than we need them! And the same goes for China and Taiwan. Again, China cannot afford loosing it's biggest and richest customer - the US. Despite what some may think, you can be assured that business is what truly rules our world today!
The way the threads've developed in these forums recently, I predict that the Next World War will start right here! (anytime now)
BenTheMan Check the histories of the wars of liberation in Africa, many of the funds and support for those came from the Peoples Republic of China.
