Just caught a little thing about this on the news tonight. The Bush administration has finally admitted that global warming is happening and that humans are most likely a large cause of it. The most recent report supposedly details what effects future warming will have on different areas of the country. President Bush supposedly suggests tax incentives to help decrease warming. Does anyone know where I can find a detailed summary of the actual report?
Looks like he is setting up another tax increase and needs something to justify it. Not necessarily the reality just the reason for it...
Will this re-invigorate calls for the U.S. to embrace the Kyoto Protocol? Surely.Will we ever sign the damned thing? Not a chance. Instead, this strikes me as a remarkably transparent and ill-conceived move on the part of the Bushies to siphon off some of the Dem's green-coalition support for the 2004 election -- ill-conceived because Bush could pass a law commanding that henceforth, corporations produce nothing save for oxygen, lentils, rain forests, and spotted owl eggs, and the Greens would still go after him for being "mindlessly pro-industry" and for engaging in "spotted owl hegemony"; transparent because, well, Bush thinks he'll be running against Gore again in 04', and he thinks this is a way to cut into Gore's voter base (such as is it is). Stupid. Stupid, stupid, stupid...
As much as I'd like to see the U.S. sign the Kyoto Protocol, unless there is some kind of power behind it it's basically just a gesture. I don't think it's any big surprise that unless there are significant repercussions, the U.S. government will break agreements when it finds it convenient to do so. Instead, I'd rather see the government take real steps to protect the environment. In my opinion, the government should be encouraging environmentally-friendly individuals and corporations and discouraging environmentally-harmful individuals and corporations. Money is usually the best way to do this. As long as I'm on the subject of what the U.S. government should be doing, they should also look into increasing communication between the FBI and CIA in matters of terrorism. Also, someone should be able to check Ashcroft's irresposible expansion of the powers of law enforcement and the FBI. Terrorism is no excuse to turn the FBI into the KGB little by little. Even though you may stiffle terrorism a little by doing it, you trample the rights of peaceful citizens to do it. I am completely in agreement with the now-popular Benjamin Franklin quote: "Those who sacrifice liberty for security receive neither."
I'm truly amazed by those that think Kyoto is a good idea. Why? It would consume an extraordinary amount of resources and not do a damn thing. At best, it would delay the inevitable by about six years - assuming of course the inevitable were even likely - which I seriously doubt it is. Tell you what, assign a probability factor (any number between 0 and 1) to each of the below and then multiply them together. The rising CO2 will significantly increase global average temperatures (keep in mind that the satellite data indicates, at best, an extremely weak correlation while the historical proxy data indicates a CO2-lag correlation. This is a tough one. I’m going to assign a probability of .1 because, while the data indicates it isn’t causative except in a casual sense, I’m keeping an open mind.) The resulting rising temperatures will, on average, be more detrimental to humankind, as a whole, than if the temperatures were to remain as they are now. (This is also a tough one. Warmer climates are generally more hospitable as a whole than cooler climates. And given that the results of the rising temperatures will primarily impact colder regions rather than the warmer equatorial regions, I’m going to assign a probability of .25) Implementing Kyoto will significantly mitigate the levels of CO2 and the resulting temperature increase (keep in mind that nobody, not even the IPCC, seriously believes this to be so even if every country got on board and played by the rules. So this one isn’t tough, I’ll go with a probability of .001, which is probable still far too high.) The detrimental impact to humankind resulting from rising temperatures will be greater than economic hardships imposed on human kind by implementing Kyoto. (Again, this one isn’t tough. Even in its current unproductive form Kyoto is very expensive so I’m going with .025 just off the cuff.) So, what do I get? .1*.25*.001*.025 = 0.000000625. Talk about long shots! That’s 6 chances in 10 million of Kyoto panning out to be worthwhile! Not as long as playing the lotto but pretty damn close. Your results may vary but I think I’ll pass.
There is a chance that even if the entire human population go into hibernation for the next 1000 years, the temperature will continue to rise - Kyoto treaty not withstanding..... Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
