UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

Discussion in 'UFOs, Ghosts and Monsters' started by Magical Realist, Oct 10, 2017.

  1. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    39,421
    Q-reeus:

    It's hardly worth taking the time to respond to your little rants these days, but I have a some free time.

    What on earth made you think that I am somehow at your beck and call? I'm not obliged to appear when you clap your hands. I have many more important, more interesting and more rewarding things to do than to dance when you call a tune. [The irony in my giving this post my attention is not lost on me, dear readers.]

    You're saying that UFOs can't be invading space aliens now? Is that your current line?

    Admittedly, I didn't go out of my way to chase down and re-interview witnesses, find relevant documents and so on. But you never bothered with any of that either, did you? We're both working with the same dubious youtube videos and credulous TV entertainment pseudo-documentaries and the like. What do they add up to, taken all together? An unconvincing argument for anything extraordinary. To me, they add up to a comedy of compounding errors, like you say.

    *giggle*

    I don't recall seeing your plausible probability analysis of alien visitation (or whatever you think this is).

    Human psychology and motivations are complex things - more complex than you perhaps appreciate. As for glitches and the like, there's some evidence of that, which I have previously discussed, but some of the observations are explained by equipment operation as designed (e.g. the IR cameras on the aircraft gimbals). I know you reject such explanations, but why? It sounds like you think that, based on some imagined "plausibility probability analysis" you think you or somebody else has done, a string of unlikely coincidences and convergences of circumstances is all but impossible. At best, that's an argument based on the same kind of circumstantial evidence that I'm relying on, only viewed from the other side.

    The thing is: one of us has an extraordinary claim, while the other has a pedestrian explanation. Where's the evidence for the extraordinary? It has gone AWOL.

    Readers can judge for themselves. Like I said. Your whining doesn't add anything to what has gone before.

    It should have been clear to you from the start. I'll try to dumb things down for you appropriately in future.

    That post was in response to an objection raised by DaveC that I addressed long ago. For some reason, he decided to raise the matter again.

    LGM is a convenient shorthand, more than anything else, but you can consider it a cheap shot if you like. Do you think the men are grey?

    As for "UFO nuts", that's a pejorative, certainly. Maybe if you guys didn't act so nutty...?
     
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  3. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    Wrong. Both explanations are extraordinary. Your one far more so. My position is to accept the massive accumulated evidence for supernatural/paranormal phenomena as negating the strict materialist ideological position. You have to assume astronomically absurd (understatement) chains of coincidence in order to satisfy your rigid materialist dogma.
    The rest of your post is as usual not worth my time to respond to.
     
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  5. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Because, as we all know, eyewitnesses can never be wrong, people never make mistakes, equipment can never malfunction, people can always infallible identify the things they are looking at, and so on. Whereas, aliens visiting Earth is commonplace and space aliens are well confirmed to be a thing that actually exists.

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    A few fuzzy videos and unreliable anecdotes don't amount to massive accumulated evidence. Sorry to break it to you.

    Where did that "plausible probability analysis" you promised get to, Q-reeus? Show me your calculations that show the "astronomical absurdity" of it.
     
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  7. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    Going to extremes is poor argumentation. As is making me out as believing in alien visitations - contrary to many clear posts of mine arguing otherwise. But then that is your consistent MO.
    Keep chanting that mantra - your ideological clones here will smilingly approve. It's on record the released vids re Nimitz & Roosevelt encounters were deliberately degraded in quality.
    As for 'unreliable anecdotes' - I'd love to see you have the guts to say that face to face with those naval personnel - and watch as they proceed to punch the shit out of you.
    Reversing things yet again. Recall I challenged you to provide one - to back up your cavalier dismissal as 'comedy(s) of errors'. Common sense is my guide on the incidents. One doesn't just need a mass of temporally coincident human + instrument glitches, they need to also miraculously provide a convergent 'false extraordinary encounter(s)' scenario. The mind boggles - well not the skeptics scoffers minds here.
    The onus is rightly on you to convincingly justify dismissing such as you have attempted to do over and over with nothing more than assertion and suggestion.
    Take a stab at it. If you are so confident in the 'nothing there' position, why not?
     
  8. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    Finally, a fact we can check!

    Show me the record that shows this, then. Go on. Make sure that it is reasonably authenticated by reliable sources, of course.

    You seem angry. Why would these upstanding naval personnel be intimidated by any questions I might put to them about their experiences, to the point where they'd want to punch me? Are you thinking they'd lose their cool if I questioned them?

    As you know, I've already done that earlier in the thread, in some detail.

    No. You look at these things with a preferred outcome already front and centre in your vision. Common sense is the first thing you toss out the window.

    You know how scanty the actual evidence is in these cases. Mostly, all the fuss is built up on the testimony of just one or two loud witnesses doing the publicity rounds, combined with some video that looks like it is of normal aircraft once you examine it.

    You're wrong, as usual. It is up to you to bring the evidence, not for me to disprove your way-out hypotheses. You're the one with the extraordinary claim. Remember?
     
  9. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695
    Such a lazy sod. It was covered in earlier posts yet you feign forgetfulness. Spoon-feeding again:
    http://www.sciforums.com/threads/in-defence-of-space-aliens.160045/page-209#post-3629666 (bad paste!)
    https://newspunch.com/us-sailors-speak-out-about-2004-ufo-encounter/
    Not good enough for you? Not official enough? No presidential signature? Why not just outright accuse the whistle-blowers who have bravely defied censure, and ridicule from the likes of you, of being nothing more than publicity-seeking liars? It's what you and your ilk here have repeatedly implied.
    Do keep lying like that for the record. What you actually wrote just hours earlier in #4163:
    "A few fuzzy videos and unreliable anecdotes don't amount to massive accumulated evidence. Sorry to break it to you."
    That's an outright accusation - no point in then questioning. Shoot first - ask questions later.
    Yeah of course those qualified and experienced and dedicated folks would be justified in roughing you up as an arrogant armchair-critic know-it-all.
    Keep lying.
    Keep accusing without any justification. Not that you ever need prodding for that.
    Do you really believe your own BS there?
    Only have to remember a few posts ago - #4162:
    "...Both explanations are extraordinary. Your one far more so. My position is to accept the massive accumulated evidence for supernatural/paranormal phenomena as negating the strict materialist ideological position. You have to assume astronomically absurd (understatement) chains of coincidence in order to satisfy your rigid materialist dogma..."

    It's sad that you feel no shame in continued postings with imo the sadistic primary intent of being provocative. A veteran liar with never a real open-minded search for truth.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2020
  10. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695
    Oops - too many tabs open on different browsers....Last post first para should have had following link:
    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a29771548/navy-ufo-witnesses-tell-truth/
    Part way down, under sub heading THE MYSTERY, start with passages that reads
    "Equally by chance, during the time of the now-famous intercept, after being called to have a conversation with another detachment, Ryan Weigelt found himself inside the Princeton’s CIC. According to Weigelt, a video of an F/A-18 trying its best to catch the elusive “Tic Tac” was playing on the monitors. Like Turner, Weigelt says what he saw was a lot longer than the brief clip released in 2017.

    “I was in there for quite a while and it was on the screen the whole time. I could not tell you how long, but it was playing when I went into combat and it was playing when I left,” Weigelt said in a YouTube interview.

    Voorhis tells Popular Mechanics that he, too, saw a much longer and clearer version of the ATFLIR video through the ship’s Top Secret LAN network. “I definitely saw video that was roughly 8 to 10 minutes long and a lot more clear,” Voorhis says."
     
  11. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    It's just more anecdotal evidence. Besides, you said there was evidence that the video footage was "deliberately degraded". But you don't give any evidence of anybody sitting down and deliberately degrading it. Nor do we have the "undegraded" footage to compare to in order to verify your claim.

    There's no need to accuse them of being liars. They might very well honestly believe their own stories. The fact remains, however, that elements of the stories are inconclusive in the absence of corroborating evidence.

    Ah, me and my ilk. Those pesky skeptics and their unwillingness to Just Believe.

    You don't get it. I'm not saying that the personnel are necessarily untrustworthy. I'm saying that taking their word for stuff, in the absence of corroborating evidence, is unreliable. The reason is the same as it always is: eyewitness testimony can be unreliable. Human beings are not video records. They have imperfect perception and imperfect memory. Moreover, sometimes their interpretations of things they observe are incorrect.

    No. I asked the questions first. Primarily, I asked what reliable evidence there is. The answer is: none. We only have a bunch of anecdotes and some fuzzy footage, when you boil it down. No doubt the military has much more than we do, and they seem to be unconcerned about alien invasions. That should tell you something, right there.

    Interesting that you advocate physical violence. You get really angry when somebody questions your faith, don't you?

    I'm simply stating the obvious, based on your postings. No need to get all riled up.

    Do you believe your BS?

    It's sad that you have this unfounded blind faith that you feel like you have to defend to the extent of threatening physical violence on those with whom you disagree.
     
  12. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695
    What idiocy. Actually expecting as reasonable that officials charged with degrading publicly released footage would then openly admit to doing so??!! Hahaha. Secrecy is a central aspect of US armed forces culture. Violate it and kiss your career goodbye.

    Your reply carefully excluded my follow-up post that pointed to where at least one of those involved explicitly stated pristine footage was both far longer and far sharper than that available on YouTube etc. And I do recall the phrase 'deliberately degraded footage' or equivalent words being uttered by at least one party present. And general agreement with that from the others present that have come forward. Ditto for the East coast 2014-2015 series of encounters and subsequent publicly released footage vs original material carefully stashed away. Not worth my while to view the entire relevant vids again just to provide exact time stamps. None of that effort would make any difference to you. Nothing would. As the long record of posts here clearly shows.

    The other worthless replies in #4168 need no response.
     
  13. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

    Messages:
    39,421
    So you're saying you don't have any evidence that the footage was deliberately degraded, beyond the anecdotes already mentioned? I thought you said there was a "record" of the footage having been degraded. Turns out, though, that all we have is some opinions from people who believe that it might have been degraded.

    Sounds like you're trying to justify why you have no good evidence that it happened, even though you implied that you had some.

    I didn't exclude it. It's another anecdote, and I discussed anecdotes in my reply to you.

    It was you:

    "It's on record the released vids re Nimitz & Roosevelt encounters were deliberately degraded in quality."
    Remember? This was your claim. You only posted it a few posts up the thread.

    Add some more anedotes and hope it adds up to data?

    You have evidence that original material was stashed away? Present that, then.
     
  14. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695
    No liar. What I wrote is correct. Read the Popular Mechanics article. And watch again those YouTube vids of interviews. Where indeed it is on the record there that far clearer and longer footage than publicly released was seen by those involved and present. Troll. As usual the rest of your trolling comments are unworthy of reply.
     
  15. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    This article?
    https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a30538203/navy-ufo-video-investigation/
    Quite a long detailed, drawn out and indetermined article from where I am...
    extract:"For some, the Pentagon’s stance that object in the film is yet still “unidentified” means that whatever it is, it’s “exotic,” and even possibly extraterrestrial. Meanwhile skeptics say, “unidentified” means just that, and thus there could easily be a prosaic explanation, such as an error with the Advanced Targeting Forward Looking Infrared (ATFLIR) system or even a misidentified flock of birds". end
    I also checked out the link within that link at
    https://www.metabunk.org/threads/are-the-navy-ufos-real-or-just-in-the-low-information-zone.10921/
    "Several media reports are making much of recent statements from Joseph Gradisher, the spokesperson for the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Warfare, as relayed by John Greenewald of TheBlackVault.com. Before I get into that, let's recap what I think are the most reasonable hypotheses for the three videos in questions:

    Flir1 (also called Nimitz, or TicTac) is a fuzzy blob in the distance. It does not move (although it jumps around when the camera changes zoom settings or does a gimbal lock correction). There's what looks like a final "zipping away at high speed" at the end of the video, but it's actually just the camera no-longer tracking the object, combined with a change in zoom that gives the illusion of speed. See:
    https://www.metabunk.org/2004-uss-nimitz-tic-tac-ufo-flir-footage-flir1.t9190/

    Gimbal is a saucer-shaped infrared glare. It rotates because the camera is rotating to counter gimbal lock. We can prove this because there are other light patterns in the sky that rotate at the same time the glare rotates. The video is consistent with a jet engine several miles away. it does not have any sudden acceleration. See:
    https://www.metabunk.org/nyt-gimbal-video-of-u-s-navy-jet-encounter-with-unknown-object.t9333/

    Go Fast is what looks like a cool object moving rapidly across the surface of the ocean. However, the angles and range on the screen allow us to triangulate the position and speed of the object. It turns out it's actually moving quite slowly (under 50 knots) and is quite high (13,000 feet). It does not accelerate at all. In fact, it most closely resembles a balloon, or possibly even a large gliding bird. See:
    https://www.metabunk.org/go-fast-footage-from-tom-delonges-to-the-stars-academy-bird-balloon.t9569/


    The statements are generally framed with a lot of commentaries, paraphrasing, and older statements, which can be rather confusing - especially in secondary stories, but also in Greenwald's originals. Greenewald has not released the actual emails, so I've extracted here what was reported in his article as attributed to Gradisher."
    and a link within the link, within the link.......
    https://www.theblackvault.com/docum...ial-phenomena-not-cleared-for-public-release/
    U.S. Navy Confirms Videos Depict ‘Unidentified Aerial Phenomena’; Not Cleared For Public Release
    a comment, well two comments I found rather interesting was......
    "As someone who's actually worked on video forensics (WA Department of Justice), most of these analyses you see in the media on the truth or otherwise of videos is kind of nonsense. More often then not someone notices M/J/PEG artifacts and claim that as some sort of proof or lack therof of authenticity without much understanding on how those come about. One courtroom I worked in the judge actually banned certain video formats in the trial after I explained that with MPEG temporal compression means you actually don't know whether certain images are really showing what they show. That is , you CANT tell if certain images are faked. In this case MJPEG was a better format for evidence than MPEG as MJPEG only compresses spatially not temporally. long ramble to say, don't trust any claim an image or video is true or false based on people trying to divine tealeaves from J/M/Peg artifacts. Better to look for chain of custody and things like that."

    and follow up comment by the same.....
    " Im not a UFO believer. However I've long suspected that IF the Saucers are visiting, the concern with dislosure is not so much about freaking out the public, but freaking out the saucer dudes. Like, "Pretend we cant see them" might well be the safest policy, to avoid having to be forced by the public to take actions which could have drastic, and possibly disasterous consequences. If theres reason to believe these bloody things are not 100% friendly, play-dead-to-the-bear might be the safest option. If these things are visiting aliens, the chances are good they've been hovering around for centuries or even millenia keeping a curious non-interventionary eye on the curious furless apes, so it might stand to reason if we don't suddenly start chasing after them with cruise missiles they might continue being non-interventionary. Orrrrrr.......... more likely the UFOs are just weird physics phenomena in the atmosphere or something like that."

    Like I said, drawn out, confusing and indecisive.
    I'm with the final comment by Shayne.
    I still can't see how any one can infer insideously or otherwise, how this incident [along with the Zimbabwe school children one] are anything more then weird unexplained occurrences or UFO's, or UAPs or whatever else that actually means unknown at this time.
    One of the links could also be classed as less then fair dinkum I might add.

    To help avoid confusion, my words are coded blue:
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2020
  16. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695

    Yes.
    None of which can remotely explain ongoing radar tracking of tight formation 'fleet(s)' of UFO's for around a week prior to the airborne intercepts - which radar images only became more clear after equipment re-calibrations. Nor the extraordinary sudden, perfectly synchronized changes in altitude of the 'fleet(s)' as also captured on shipborne radar.
    Fuzziness has recently been dealt with. Eyewitness testimony to far sharper untampered with footage. The claim of misidentified jet exhaust flare fails on several counts.
    1: Shipborne long range radar should have easily identified it as a conventional foreign or domestic aircraft. Yet it registered as 'condition red'; no transponder response.
    2: Mick's IR flare claim was itself debunked in a vid I posted back in another thread. I haven't the time to go through it again but here's the vid link:

    An expert in analyzing both visual and FLIR video cited there strongly disagrees with Mick's take on it.
    That claim of 'apparent only rotation' is clearly false by simple inspection between 1:50 - 2:0 here:

    It obviously rotates suddenly wrt the cloud line as unrotated backdrop. A rotating camera cannot magically discriminate between the 'gimbal' and cloud line as Mick implies.
    The single case where Mick West may be correct. But why would the navy/Pentagon not have picked that up with all the details available and plenty of resources and expert analysts at their disposal? They afaik continue to classify it as an 'unknown'. Even on a tactical basis it would make sense to admit to an initial misidentification as that would encourage foreign adversaries to underestimate US capabilities, a plus not a minus.
    Chain of custody could hardly be better than with US navy procedure here. If fake footage - that would imply a bizarre and highly risky dis-info op by the navy/Pentagon.
    Try telling that in bold to David Fravor and accompanying aircrew during their close and very visual tussles with the tic tac(s). Similarly for Graves et. al. in 2014-2015 East coast incidents.
    There are points of conflict e.g. Fravor disputes confiscation of tapes and disks (but admits it's his opinion only as he wasn't present), and contradictory claims over official clearance or not of publicly shown material. Minor points when set against unanimity among naval personnel over the broad details of actual encounters that took place. It's that overall consistent picture that clinches it for me at least.
     
  17. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    And I as a firm believer in the fact that we should not be alone in this universe, for reasons stated many times,I still remain unconvinced that this is the extraordinary evidence that will answer probably mankind's greatest question with any certainty...perhaps, perhaps not, other explanations are still possible, we don't really know, so unexplained or unidentified it should remain.
    Like I said, a drawn out, confusing and indecisive account from any perspective, pro or con.
    Again, as I said previously, I'm still in line with the opinion of the comments by Shayne in the final link I gave.
    I'm like that bloke in the bible and the mythical story of the resurrection of JC...Thomas from memory of my old Catholic school days? When told that JC had risen directly by the other Apostles that had already seen him, still doubted, until as it is written, until he could stick his hands in the wound in his side, and the wounds in his hands from the nails.
    This is a historical, monumental question for mankind on the whole...Are we alone?? To have that answered properly and convincingly in either the affirmative or otherwise, needs far more convincing and extraordinary evidence then that shown in a very few unexplained cases.
     
  18. foghorn Valued Senior Member

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    1,477
    Q-reeus's version of the Scientific method, watching someone getting beaten-up because they won't accept something on just anecdotical evidence.
    '' I'd love to see you have the guts to say that face to face with those naval personnel - and watch as they proceed to punch the shit out of you.''
    Ok, ok, whatever you say Q-reeus, I will believe, I will, I will, just don't touch the face please.
    You know, Dave said something about levels, you Q-reeus can't get any lower.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2020
  19. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695
    Still smarting after your 'clincher' post linking to hero Mick West's 'debunking' case re 2004, 2014-2015 US navy UFO encounters, crumbled in short order (with maybe a single exception)?:
    http://www.sciforums.com/posts/3602008/
    Or maybe just generally restless with usual punching bag MR absent for a while now. Keep lifting quotes completely devoid of original context and use it to shit stir. Hypocrite.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
  20. foghorn Valued Senior Member

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    What? Check out your own clip (time mark 13:25) and hear that bloke give west ''credit for a great job'' for west's ''go fast ''analysis.
    http://www.sciforums.com/posts/3602008/
    Why would I be ''smarting'' after that bloke gives West ''credit'' for a ''great job'' . Silly billy you are.

    Hypocrite?? That's reminds me of a lie of yours Q-reeus you thought you got away with.
    Here you are asking '' have I ever outright accused anyone in particular at SF of for sure selectively stopping my email alerts? ''
    And here you are doing just that very thing in an earlier post, and calling poor JamesR ''sick'' in the process.
    Funny you say ''yours truly'' in that quote of you. Your not a very ''truly'' person are you.
    Silly billy.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
  21. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    Your nasty and rather stupid cherry-picking selective quote attacks, some completely off-topic to boot, is eerily reminiscent of sweetpea. Hmm....
    So much attention received might be flattering were it not for the abysmal low quality of it. Go snipe elsewhere you emotionally deranged fool.
     
  22. foghorn Valued Senior Member

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    1,477
    And that from the person who wants to watch James R get beaten-up. Hypocrite.

    You get like for like silly billy. You being a liar and a hypocrite,what do you really expect?
    Calling james R ''sick'' just because you suspected James R of stopping your e-mail notifications, that was ''nasty''. Your so predicable in behaviour your boring, once your on a thread it can only go one way, ''nasty''.
    Silly billy.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2020
  23. Q-reeus Banned Valued Senior Member

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    4,695
    So, confirmed as James R's loyal bulldog #1. Brownie points aplenty.
    For your info, in the last few days, some email alerts have again just 'randomly' gone straight to my spam folder. Poltergeist activity? Nah, something more prosaic at work here.
    PS: If as is obvious you can't offer constructive, intelligent, and on-topic input here - just bugger off.
     

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