A separate thread, because the matter gets lost in the more dramatic (and more significant) threats to the welfare of the American people that dominate Trump-focused discussions, focused on the business deals this Federal administration makes. It's going to be bad news, for the most part - fascists are incompetent at governance - but probably not all as bad as this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-record-u-s-offshore-lease-sale-idUSKBN1GX18D At most 11 of the 148 parcels bid on attracted more than one bid, apparently there was no minimum bid or right of refusal, and the auction was held in the immediate wake of an official announcement that the costs of exploiting the leases was going to be increased by government imposed tariffs of unknown size on the steel involved. The cost to the American taxpayer of the deal timing and deal structure fuckups was at least 50 million dollars, and far more likely between 500 and 1500 million. That's just immediate lost revenue - the various environmental and other auxiliary costs outweigh that, possibly by many multiples.
Crazy thing is that most major oil players know already that the fossil fuel industries short to medium term future is tenuous. The ability to raise the necessary finance is also greatly inhibited due to Bank reluctance. As with the Saudi's diversification into other industries, other oil producers appear to be sharing the same priority of diversification. Essentially any fossil fuel dev. is starting to hit a wall when it comes to financial risk assessments... example ADANI Carmichael coal mine project. Australia. Commonwealth Bank’s confirmation that it will not be involved in financing the Carmichael coal mine leaves Adani in the highly improbable position of financing a major Australian project without the support of one of the “big four” banks.... ...Commonwealth Bank are releasing their climate change policy update next week, with expectations that it will constrain their investments in fossil fuels..... src: https://www.marketforces.org.au/media-release-commbanks-refusal-to-finance-adani-coal-mine/ But of course Trump is not tuned into the real world. It is changing rapidly and he simply is not up to it. The real cost of Trump to the USA and the world in general is truly staggering when you think on it.
btw .. our PM M. Trumble... ( hee hee ) was just on the news again ( just now) about how he has hopes that China and the USA can resolve their differences with out a full on trade war. The point being that this is extraordinary considering that just about every second day there is our PM commenting on the trade war looming. As a key strategic ally for the USA in the Southern Hemisphere we are running a significant risk by our alliance with USA as China is one of our most significant trading partners. The ANZUS treaty will become a super hot topic if the USA forces Australia into recession due to it's current leaderships poor negotiation skills. IMO
i do not think you have anything signifigant to worry about economically. while there is a strong air of reactive bigotry inside Australia toward other nations, it is more soo a cultural diversity creating loud minoritys. China and all of Asia would see Australia as a key trading allie in the Region. its just a fact. none of the asian countrys want or would enter into a trade war unles Australia suddenly invaded some country like a maniac. Australians Recognise the need to hold on to and directly promote their own social culture to protect it. they can see all their many neighbours who have different cultures and do the same. Australian military technology would be considered an essential emergency call partner for all Asian countrys in the region. I would be surprised if any sane Asian leaders would throw that in the rubbish bin.
but it may mean that Australia may need to set aside, even if temporarily, the ANZUS treaty (perhaps in part?) to maintain a working relationship with China...in the event of a trade war between the USA and China.
at the risk of sounding tersely Impetulant , The name ANZUS lends its self from an allied agreement, while trade lends its self to a completely different world. there is a definite air of deliberately muddied waters where defense relationships are superimposed over general trade relations to dictate an illusionary narative.That illusionary narative is deliberate obfiscation of topics to render trade to be equal to national laws morals and regulations. it appears to be simple propoganda and manipulation to try and use fear to sell some type of tyranical trade concept that if in doing would literally conflict with the nature of allied relationships in defense. thus my comment prior. in laymens terms how dare (certain, various & implied specific non specific and those whom sell themselves as)private industry attempt to threaten national interests of nations by attempting to control the millitary defense relationships by suggesting they have become at risk because those private industrys are not getting everything their own way. China appears to not have to do anything it doesnt really want to... China has continued to trade with countrys whos general populace define their own social laws as being some what quite different. to illucidate the nature somewhat... a capitalist country willingly trading with a communist country... ... err-go ... what is the the question being asked ?
China only has to say: "Australia, make your choice, USA alliance or Trade with us." they don't even need a trade war to do it. It is as simple as that. With Trumps BS flowing as it is, it is extremely difficult to gauge Chinese reaction and of course they are quite capable of making their own decisions about who they choose to trade with.
1 thing china needs, like india and all other countrys is food. considering china has made enough money to play the currency markets for fun for a decade or soo, there only interest could be securing food to feed its people. thus china becoming the ultimate usa conceptualised "consumer" (irony?) the consumer that dictates the product(usa the customer is always right). will the product define global trends ? probably.
Takes the rough road... Do you believe that China like NK isn't capable of population reduction using famine induced by the West as an excuse, fanning the call to war in China. if you do, I think you would be underestimating the ruthlessness and resolve of the Chinese government. Seriously though: Australia would almost automatically side with the USA if it comes to the push and shove. It would suffer a serious recession accordingly which would then lead to the re-appraisal of our ANZUS alliance. Note: The make up of the Australian population is very different to the days the ANZUS treaty was struck in 1951 and under Trump's Republican supported administration the treaty is becoming more and more akin to a liability than an asset. A stupid and essentially unnecessary trade war between USA and China forcing Australia into recession could be the catalyst for significant change in our relationship.
I believe most realize that as China progresses to a greater prosperity and standard of education, a market driven democracy can be the only ultimate outcome. Sure this takes an inordinate amount of time but eventually it is almost certain that as China moves into the 1st world, democracy, capitalism, free market etc will take hold. The down side is that China becomes more competitive globally and takes a slice out of the USA's pie. The USA doesn't like it and now we have this stupidity coming out of the Whitehouse.
absolutely ! and what of all the US industrialists like those employed in the upper end of the administration whom have personally outsourced american jobs to 3rd world countrys ? its a bit of a punch n judy show to watch those traitors run-a-muck pointing the bone and trying to play with nationalist sentiment while trying to de-stabalise the country to manifest their own profit paradigms into fruition. as i mentioned above, now that Ego's have been modelled as the authority figure in political leadership, people are abandoning the word politics as quickly as possible because their boss aka the rich white man doesnt like it when you dont stroke his ego. your likely to get fired if you dont... (hang on ? wasnt that a TV reality game?) played for the fools they are ? you have to ask. "Garde! A l'eau!" Australian culture ! Australia, where its still ok to laugh at your boss[or have a laugh with](if they do something silly or make a mistake) and not have your career destroyed or be sacked by a narcissist.
Australia doesn't hold a monopoly on granting respect when merit deserves it. It is or at least has been a significant part of our culture to do so with out calls to authority that others seem to be inclined to do. Calls to Authority do not generate respect at all... A 4 star general has to earn his stripes so to speak...and so too do Presidents...still waiting...
