Trump's campaign manager has been told he will be indicted. What's that about no evidence?

Wow, things are moving much faster than I expected. Apparently the FBI had Manafort under surveillance before the campaign and after the campaign. Apparently his phones had been wire tapped. Those wire taps could have picked up conversations with The Donald, and they probably did. Trump's probably shitting in his pants. I had given Trump until 2019 before impeachment. But at this rate; it's conceivable Trump could be impeached as soon as next year. I'm looking forward to hear how right-wing entertainment explains this development to Trump's base. https://www.vox.com/2017/9/18/16330978/paul-manafort-wiretap-indictment

 

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Click for mixed metaphors.​

To the one, we kind of knew this was coming. To the other, as much as we want to play the sage political analyst, it's still a bit of exploding head.

 

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So the first indictments have been handed out, sooner than expected, and we are supposed to find out who's at the head of the line on Monday.

The bets on my lines are split between Manafort and Flynn (rough estimate 70/30) with some noting that the language suggests more than one person (http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/27/politics/first-charges-mueller-investigation/index.html) - so maybe Manafort and Flynn both? There's some hopeful speculation involving guys like Roger Stone and Carter Page.

The motive speculations run from Mueller jumped the gun a bit because he was about to be fired by Trump and wanted to lock in the criminal proceedings, to Mueller agreeing to a deal similar to the deal that exonerated W&Cheney and closed off the Iraq War investigations at the price of Scooter Libby.

Funny side: there are so many possibilities. There are literally dozens of possibly indictable people involved here, beginning with Trump's children and ending with anyone involved with his real estate dealings and Russians in the past fifteen years - it's a target rich environment.

 

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/30/politics/paul-manafort-russia-investigation-surrender/index.html

He has, apparently, turned himself in.

 

So is "conspiracy against the United States" a more pleasant way of saying "treason"?

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Officially, treason is defined as:
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2381

18 U.S. Code § 2381 - Treason
Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.

(June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 807; Pub. L. 103–322, title XXXIII, § 330016(2)(J), Sept. 13, 1994, 108 Stat. 2148.)

For some, they claim that it must be "in times of war" due to the need for having "enemies". I don't quite agree with that idea - I think it is pretty safe to call Russia and North Korea "hostile foreign entities" at the least, "enemies" being the more blunt term.

 

Not to mention the fact that Papadopoulos had accepted a plea bargain back on October 5th... he's going to sing like a canary methinks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...olicy-adviser-pleaded-guilty-in-mueller-probe

There's of course the DOJ's summary of statement from here:
https://www.justice.gov/file/1007346/download

This... is going to be one helluva ride...

 

and:
https://www.justice.gov/file/1007271/download

 

Course, there is also Manafort's daughters text messages:

http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-manafort-daughter-text-messages-ukraine-2017-3

 

Suddenly the feud with a Gold Star widow starts to make this really weird sense. People have been trying to figure out what about this or that set Trump off, but a guilty plea connected to his campaign would probably do it. The Niger patrol departed on 3 October, got hit on 4 October; Africom released a statement on 5 October, beginning a curious, simmering spectacle that wouldn't flash for a week, as the president, himself, said nothing.

Honestly, the period between then and Trump's panicked "DO SOMETHING!" tweet yesterday will be among the most fascinating chapters of the Trump presidency.

 

#corruption | #WhatTheyVotedFor​

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​

Not quite. One can conspire against the United States, but while Russia is considered an adversary it is a bit harder to describe them as an enemy proper. This is the same charge they would file if the campaign was getting funky with Turkey or Azerbaijan instead of Russia.

• • •​

Because Manafort is a headliner. I know it's a weak mataphor, but that really does happen, sometimes. You pick up a ticket to go see a band you know, has been around for years, and their upstart opening act is just a jawdropper. I don't know what the drink-drive stat is in Australia, but we teach around here that by the time we arrrest a DUI, the suspect has probably driven intoxicated at least eighty to a hundred times. It's a rough statistic pulled from hazy self-reporting according to people who are already in legal jeopardy. At any rate, the average American news consumer has had plenty of opportunity to learn Papadopolous' name, and they probably should have since one of our NFL stars once played a television father by that name (Alex Karras, "George Popadopolis", Webster↱, 1983-89). True, that shouldn't make any real difference, but we're Americans.

In Friday's mad-rush commentary, we heard a lot of comparative speculation while reporters, presenters, and pundits spewed and scrambled after some manner of narrative framework. One question, for instance, had to do with why bring indictments now instead of later; the subsequent logic was a scattershot because all we could do was enumerate possibilities. Among those was the pretty basic idea of leverage; the harder one nobody was describing well was the idea of going after a low-level staffer on a tech-related E&O because it would allow Mueller to open up some aspect like a thoracic spreader. That's not what we got. We got a headliner, a supporting act, and a gem.

It will be in the morning-after reviews that people start buzzing about the undercard. At least, we hope. Also, check back in some hours when Hayes, Maddow, and O'Donnell are slated for broadcast. The prime-time analyses ought to be illuminating in some way, though there is a possibility that everyone will still be so confused that Maddow burns half the show with Beschloss and Reid.

Matthew Rozsa↱ of Salon, however, notes the same point you do:

While it's highly unlikely that Trump was unaware of Manafort's connections to Russia and Ukraine before hiring him—and if he was, that fact alone would raise serious questions about his competence—he is certainly not in a position to state definitively that the Mueller probe's recent arrests have nothing to do with his campaign. Manafort's legal predicament ties into his days working for a pro-Russia political party in Ukraine, which may indirectly relate to Trump's campaign. There's a bigger problem, though: Charges against former Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos are directly related to Papadopoulos allegedly trying to set up a meeting with Russian officials.​

Meanwhile, we might consider one of those unwritten rules advising against hiring a foreign polcy consultant barely thirty years old, with no real and direct experience, who lists "Model United Nations" as his credential:

In March 2016, Donald Trump sat down with the editorial board of the Washington Post, and was asked about the team of foreign policy advisers his campaign had assembled. The then-candidate volunteered a handful of names, including Carter Page, who's now a key figure in the Russia scandal, and whom Trump later claimed not to know.

But after mentioning Page, Trump quickly added to his list of advisers, "George Papadopoulos, he's an energy and oil consultant, excellent guy."

Even at the time, this seemed odd. Papadopoulos had only graduated from college seven years earlier, and he listed participation with the "Model United Nations" as one of his credentials. And yet, in March 2016, the then-frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination identified Papadopoulos as one of only a handful of people advising him on foreign policy.

(Benen↱)​

I can only wonder what the indictment against Carter↱ Page↱ is going to look like.
____________________

Notes:

Benen, Steve. "Former Trump adviser pleads guilty to lying to Mueller's team". msnbc. 30 October 2017. msnbc.com. 30 October 2017. http://on.msnbc.com/2iKU5SC

Rozsa, Matthew. "Trump's spin on Manafort indictment just raises more questions". Salon. 30 October 2017. Salon.com. 30 October 2017. http://bit.ly/2ifNITs

 

So it's Man' and George, not Ma'am and George?

Sorry, I just couldn't resist that.

 

Ah, okay. So I'm assuming then that treason, in legal terms, is conspiring specifically with an enemy proper against your own country? That I didn't appreciate. Thanks.

 

Actual convictions for treason proper are quite a rarity--I think there've only been a handful in the past two hundred years--but popular usage of the term would have you thinking otherwise.

 

so
Manafort pled "not guilty" to all 12 counts.
I suspect that he will be a tougher nut to crack than was Papadopoulos,

 

How relevant is any of this though? I mean, the USA is it seems trying hard to make itself less relevant these days.

The significance of Donald Trump being handed the reins of power by an established party hasn't been lost on people with any political sense. To me at least it was like, ok, well that's that I suppose. So much for the great US of A, I guess it's going to all go downhill or has been going downhill for a while, this being just the next round in the big fight against--some thing or other.

How sad that the ugly face of America seems to be the true face of America. Sure, a lot of Americans aren't happy, the FBI isn't happy, maybe the Pentagon isn't happy either, but what really are all those unhappy people doing? A whole lot of oxy? Probably.

I think although there is much unhappiness with the current political situation, most Americans don't really care all that much. If they did care more than they seem to, if they lobbied more, protested on the streets more, or just, you know, got more pissed off about it and bloodywell did something, would the situation change?

Bear in mind, the situation is what it is because a lot of pissed off white folks said they don't care what happens, but they want change, they want a president who can take a wrecking ball to all those vaunted institutions of democracy, they seem to be one group of unhappy Americans who just don't care anymore. About democracy, that is.