Republicans Conspire to Deny Trump the Party's Nomination

Trump has won the Republican primary race, but that's not good enough for a large chunk of Republicans who are even now conspiring to change the party rules and deny Trump the Party's nomination. The party convention is one month away, so the time is drawing near. Conspiring Republicans don't have much time. So the question is, will these Republicans be able to deny Trump the Party's nomination?

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-mob-organized-crime-213910

If this group of conspirators are successful in denying the party's nomination to the winner of the party's primary, then why have primaries at all? Why not go back to the days of smoke filled backrooms? Well, maybe we can get rid of the smoke, as most people no longer smoke. But if the will of voters can be so easily suppressed in the Republican Party, then the Republican primary is a farce.

 

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Did you really believe there was any respect for the average voter? Both parties are based on cronyism. People will see what they have done, or might do. There will be rioting in the streets, I assume.

 

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I don't see any evidence of Democratic cronyism. But I can't say the same for Republicans.

 

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Why speculate when in a month the outcome will be clear.
Alex

 

Because the outcome could affect the general election in the fall, and the fall election could have significant economic impact on the world. The question is, if this group of Republicans are successful, who would they put in Trump's place? Personally, I think any move to replace Trump would split the Republican Party. I don't see Trump giving up. That's not Trump's style. He would run as a 3rd party. He may even start his own party. I think most Republicans think grinning and bearing Trump is better than the prospect of a split party. That's why I don't think these conspirators will be successful. But it's an interesting prospect. You cannot rule out the possibility.

 

Sit idle, relax and do yoga.....life seems to be quite slow and boring on your side ?

You know trillions of dollar industry (ies) run on speculation.......people by and large do not act only after outcome is out, there is money in anticipatory acts too.

 

Life is good for me but not bored to the point of doing yoga.
Well you could probably teach me the art of speculation as I am not into speculation when it comes to money.
How would you invest or speculate such as to make money in this situation..

Personally I think old Trumpy will win no matter what happens. I think his opposition underestimate him and that is always dangerous. Never overestimate someone and never underestimate them. He is not the fool folk would like to have him be is my suspicion.
He has the ability to draw attention without spending money that is a powerful tool.
Having said all that I must say I am not fond of him but hey I dont have to vote in USA.

 

I understand but my point, aroused by no interest, is we dont have long to wait.
I think his opponents will step aside.
Alex

 

I just can't believe that after all this, a conscience clause is what they came up with.

 

Believe me, just the headlines of most articles you get when googling "donald trump" are saying the honeymoon is over.
It's over, believe me.

 

Woah. The link in the OP, I thought it would be something like this:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/17/politics/delegate-unbinding-effort-organized/index.html

 

I voted that they will, but I do not think it will work.

 

Well, the "Anybody But Trump Movement" has been around for some time now. It began during the primaries. The "Anybody But Trumpers" wanted someone, anyone else, but Trump to win the primaries. That obviously didn't work out for them as Trump did win the primaries. So now we have this new movement to deny Trump the nomination by changing the rules.

When it became apparent that Trump could actually win the primaries, Cruz began stacking Trump's delegates with Cruz supporters in a last ditch effort to win the nomination on the prayer of a contested convention. So now The Donald is stuck with a bunch of disloyal delegates and the conspiracy begins. Unfortunately for Cruz, Trump won enough votes to avoid a contested election. So now these conspirators want to create a contested convention by changing the rules. American political parties dislike contested elections, because they are messy and contested conventions historically end poorly for the party. So it's more than a bit odd that we see a significant number of Republicans going to such great lengths to create a contested convention.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...onventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/

 

It will definitely get more difficult for The Donald. I'm sure he will have an entertaining convention, after all Trump is first and foremost an entertainer. So he might get the traditional bump, but after that, it doesn't bode well for Trump. I imagine he will get maybe 36% of the popular vote...pretty much just the hardline Republican vote.

It was reported even in red state Kansas where signs posted on lawns stating "Dogs and Democrats stay off the lawns" are common, Hillary beat Trump by 7 points. That's unheard of in Kansas! That's bad for Republicans. If those numbers hold, that's very bad for Republicans. It's unheard of. But what are Republicans to do? It's not like they have anything better waiting in the wings. They don't.

http://www2.ljworld.com/weblogs/capitol-report/2016/jun/10/poll-shows-clinton-leading-in-kansas-bro/

The party has become incapable of nominating a credible winning candidate. The 2 candidates I feared most, because they could have won in the general were Bush and Kasich. But those 2 candidates are an anathema to Republican voters. They aren't radical enough. They aren't crazy enough to satisfy Republican voters, and I attribute that to the Republican entertainment industry. With the advent of Republican entertainment, Republicans are free to live in a fact free political world, and they do. They don't have to hear things they don't want to hear, and they are free to invent fictions, and they do. That might be good for Republican entertainers, but it isn't healthy for the party or the nation. What makes for good Republican entertainment doesn't make for good government. That's the unpleasant fact Republicans must face.

 

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An amusing corner of the Kosiverse is a pretense put forth by diarist Bethesda1971↱, who now colloquially tracks "the percentage chance Donald Trump will withdraw from the Republican race". In the initial consideration, the author bumped the chance to twenty-five percent.

Like I said, colloquial:

Events in just the week since then have compelled a rise in the TWW(TM) to 25%, including:​

Busted for trying to stiff veterans (still a very under-reported story)

Trump University Fraud Details Disclosed

Racist Attacks on Judge Curiel and universal hostile (or GOP evasive) response

Hillary foreign policy speech and Trump's flaccid response

Based on all of the above, increasing groundswell that he is not qualified, not fit, too dangerous to be President​

Another factor is the polls. Last week's supposed narrowing suckered a lot of Republicans into supporting Trump, most notably Paul Ryan. But Ipsos/Reuter now has Hillary ahead by 11 (probably without the last 48 hours having great effect yet). Could be an outlier or temporary. But all Trump talks about at his rallies are his favorable polls. What happens when they start going against him? Can he handle that?​

You see how it goes. A few days later, the Trump Withdrawal Watch↱ edged to thirty:

Initially, I thought I would update the TWW™ about weekly. But events of just this weekend compel an upward adjustment to 30% today. These include: ​

Trump's extending the "biased judge" universe to include Muslims

Failure of any Republican to defend him from HIllary's speech or the Judge comments

Remarks like GOP strategist Rick Wilson's that Republicans “own every crazy, vile chunk of word vomit that spews from his mouth."

At least one poll showing a widening Hillary lead (Ipsos/Reuters)​

And it really was a dramatic weekend in Trumpworld.

Still, well, you know. It's just idle prognostication. Pub-style, or something, you know?

Earlier this week, the TWW™↱ leapt to forty-two percent:

Now the polls are shifting―The Bloomberg Poll shows a 12 point HRC lead (and 55% “would never vote for him"), and they're part of a perfect storm pushing up the TWW™, including Trump's Unhinged Bizarro, Strangelovian response to the Orlando attack. Hence, the 12 point jump.

Note: This series is just about whether he will withdraw voluntarily―not whether the “establishment" will take it away from him. I don't think that will happen, except perhaps behind the scenes.

Remember, at 42%, the odds are still against withdrawal. Yet my gut feeling is Trump won't be able to handle being consistently way behind in the polls. Being an almost sure loser for four months (to a chick!!!) will be too much for the consummate snake-oil salesman, egomaniac narcissist.​

The note in the second paragraph of that quotation is important, of course, though every time I try to figure how that works I get stuck on the idea of this egomaniacal narcissit folding.

Nonetheless, this ridiculous conscience clause notion circulating in open discourse really does raise the question of whether or not Donald Trump will actually become the nominee proper.

And when the whole argument against the idea that the GOP will withhold the nomination from the winner of their primary absolutely depends on the proposition that such a stunt is unthinkable, we should probably take a moment to assess the true boundaries of our imaginations.

It seems absolutely absurd to me that the Republican Party will refuse Trump, except for the point that we all know it really is necessary this time around.

And, look: I don't like conservatives. I loathe the Republican Party. But what I'm witnessing is a fucking atrocity.

For far too long our political discourse in general, and conservative discourse in particular, has failed to properly address the range 'twixt public service and civic leadership. For decades, Republicans have increasingly hidden behind an assertion of public service that means, functionally, "Whatever people say they want they can have." Thus it becomes their duty to undermine the Constitution and complain that one cannot be equal if one is not superior under law, and promote other such backwards notions because their wilful market strategy has long been to mobilize the lowest common denominator of the political discourse―fear.

Consider the "Bubble". Think about how it works. Republicans pitch to bigots; bigots rally to Republicans; the GOP then promotes those bigots' policies on the grounds that they are what the constituents wnat. This has been going on for a long time, and what happened in Indiana and Kentucky ought to serve well enough to signify that regardless of the legitimacy of these issues, they are legitimately massive to assert gravity in the mainline political discourse.

And this is how Republicans came to crisis.

Meanwhile, the Democratic tent is so large and overstuffed we face substantial risk of rupture.

At the end of the day, I still need the Republican Party, or some other organization functioning where the GOP has increasingly failed to fulfill its part in the social contract for decades.

To wit, if I told you the point was to win the war by driving so many people to the enemy's ranks that their war machine collapsed, how could you not laugh? No, seriously, if I really tried to tell you the point was to shed so many voters that Democrats would fall apart for trying to absorb too many of them, thus diluting their policy platform and setting the stage for internecene division, leading to factionalization, collapse, and Republican supremacy for the Democrats being broken into twelve pieces, how the hell could you even begin to take that seriously?

It's not the Plan. But that's how badly the GOP is broken.

Look, just imagine a monolithic Democratic majority. We might get to the midterm making a lot of progress, maybe even most or all of a presidential cycle; there is a lot of cleanup and repair to do, after all. But, really, how long could the Democrats go without any serious functional opposition before they completely fucked up?

I need the Republican Party.

Part of that will, indeed, be discussing the range between public service and civic leadership. But for the moment it almost seems as if everyone knows the unthinkable is now in play, and it's just a matter of making it not look facially ridiculous when the GOP says no to Donald Trump. You know, it absolutely must happen, except for how to not look as clumsy and stupid and ridiculous as the maneuver will probably look, because, let's face it, this is embarrassing for pretty much everyone.

And it's true, I do appreciate the irony of the conscience clause proposition ... but only the irony.
____________________

Notes:

Bethesda1971. "The Dog is in the Car and Has no Clue. Trump Withdrawal Watch (TWW) Jumps 12 Points. Now at 42%.". Daily Kos. 15 June 2016. DailyKos.com. 18 June 2016. http://bit.ly/23iFA4J

—————. "Trump Withdrawal Watch (TWW) continues to rise. Now at 30%". Daily Kos. 6 June 2016. DailyKos.com. 18 June 2016. http://bit.ly/1YyNnKQ

—————. "Will the Dog Catch the Car? The Bethesda 1971 Trump Withdrawal Watch Goes from Zero to 25% in a Week". Daily Kos. 3 June 2016. DailyKos.com. 18 June 2016. http://bit.ly/21sNdE4

 

That's an interesting speculation. I think the TWW scenario was a very real possibility early on, but now, at this late stage, I don't think so. Trump has committed to this, I don't think he's going to turn tail and run at this late juncture. It would be too damaging to his ego. He won the primaries. I think it far more likely he would go rogue. He would turn his campaign against the party leadership. Blame is crucial to trump, as long as he has someone to blame for his poor performance, he's good. As long as he has a villain, he's good. In this case the villain is the Republican establishment and the villain is the scapegoat for his poor performance.

 

What do you think Trump thinks the nomination is worth, in terms of accepting money to withdraw from it?
I bet it's quite high.

 

I don't think it likely. Republicans have voting rules, so unless those voting rules change dramatically to allow for this, it's not happening. It's more likely, that if Trump is not elected on the first ballot, delegates will be bribed directly completely bypassing The Donald. And I don't see why they would change the rules to give The Donald more power.

If you are saying the cabal could just pay Trump to go away, I suppose they could do that. But I think, the price would indeed need to be high. Would The Donald betray his supporters for a buck? Probably, but we may never know.

 

Im guessin it woud take $25 million... an it woud be money well spent for the GOP.!!!