The Republican establishment is aghast over the very real prospect of Trump's nomination and control over the Republican Party. Trump's stated policies are both shockingly simplistic and shockingly destructive. Trump wants to round up 11 million illegal aliens, deport them, and get Mexico to build a huge wall across the Mexican-American border, all while paying off the entire national debt within 8 years. And that's just for starters. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Republican establishment types rightfully think Trump will destroy the Republican Party, hence the "Anybody But Trump" movement. It looks like the "Anybody But Trump" movement is going down in flames. Republican establishment types seem to be coming to the realization the gig is up. Trump will very likely become the next Republican presidential nominee. Their best hope is for a contested election. But even then, the choices are not much better. It's not like Republicans have many good candidates to rival Trump. Republicans began this election cycle with 17 candidates from diverse backgrounds and now they have 3 remaining and only one which has a plausible path to winning a majority vote at the party's convention. If backroom shenanigans deny Trump the nomination after winning the most votes in the primaries and caucuses, the party will likely split. But it's not like anyone couldn't or shouldn't have seen this coming. Trump didn't materialize overnight, nor did the circumstances which have provided fertile grounds for someone like Trump to spring forward. For decades now the Republican Party has been content fomenting unrest, hate, and misinformation through Republican entertainers and pseudo news outlets (e.g. Fox News). They have fomented identity politics for decades and now it's coming back to bite them in the derriere. There is an old idiom, if you play with fire, don't be surprised when you get burned. Well, after playing with fire for decades the Republican establishment is getting burnt. So what happens to the Republican Party after the fires of Trump have ravaged the party? Is this the death of the Republican Party? Will a new party emerge from the ashes like a phoenix? And if so, what will that party look like?
Maybe I am being too optimistic, but I suspect Trump as president wouldn't do much of what he says. His main objective is to get the nomination, using various extreme statements to win votes.
I too do not think Trump intends to do the things he has promised he would do. What he has promised isn't consistent with what he is preaching, and I don't think Trump is a dumb or uneducated man. But here is the problem, if he is elected, he has to explain why he is not delivering on his promises. I think he believes he can manage that, and perhaps he can. But I don't think he will ever get the chance, because I don't think he would be elected if he became the Republican nominee as now appears likely. But in any case, Trump will get to rewrite the Republican Party. He has pushed the Republican Party farther to the right and farther out of the mainstream. There are significant demographic changes within the US. The nation is becoming less white and Trump has alienated significant non white voting blocks. He has exacerbated the racial divisions that have been festering within the Republican Party. He has effectively pushed the Republican Party further into the fringes of American politics. And that doesn't go away with Trump.
The Republican party will likely survive this and linger on like some dismembered zombie... At some point something else will have to emerge that redefines conservatism and separates itself from the weird social issues that currently define it. Personally it wouldn't surprise me if Libertarians make a surge for a decade or so in the near future. I'm starting to see more and more people in my age bracket (23) take up the "well I'm socially liberal but fiscally conservative"... Sadly I fear the worst is yet to come....
The problem is most of the people who describe themselves as "fiscally conservative" have no clue as to what it means to be fiscally conservative and that is scary. Often, that makes them fiscally reckless. Being fiscally conservative doesn't mean sitting on our collective wallets all the time regardless of economic circumstance. It means responding to economic conditions with appropriate fiscal policies. It's a little more complicated than most people realize. Unfortunately, most people have had very little if any real training in macroeconomics. That makes them ripe targets for demagogues and charlatans.
