BRIC+ News & comments

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Billy T, Aug 10, 2008.

  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Both your links (same data) are ESTIMATED data for imports to be achieved in 2014. My Bloomberg link below (from early 2013) is facts for 2012, the first year China imported (and exported) more than the US did, so that made "news" at Bloomberg.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-to-become-the-world-s-biggest-trading-nation
    Here are some specific factual (not estimated) data from it:

    " U.S. exports and imports of goods last year totaled $3.82 trillion, the U.S. Commerce Department said last week. China’s customs administration reported last month that the country’s trade in goods in 2012 amounted to $3.87 trillion. "
    Note an increasing volume of imports is now coming from other Asian countries, the suppliers of low value added component with high labor content as China, after years of double digit annual salary increases, can not make these items as cheaply as their suppliers, like Vietman, can. This importation by China is sending ever increasing volumes of Yuan to these other Asian nations, but they quickly come back as their populations buy ever greater volume of Chinese higher valued added manufactured goods - Why China leads the world in both imports and exports, which are increasing going to low labor cost Asian nations, not US or Europe, although, I think those exports are also growing, just more slowly than to the Asian nations.
    Ironically these low value added imports make a "round trip" as they are incorporated components in the high value added goods China increasingly exports back to the Asian suppliers.

    As I stated, in post 875, US does have greater volume (dollar value) in services provided, as Bloomber confirms:

    " When taking into account services, U.S. total trade amounted* to $4.93 trillion in 2012, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The U.S. recorded a surplus in services of $195.3 billion last year and a goods deficit of more than $700 billion, according to BEA figures released Feb. 8. China’s 2012 trade surplus, measured in goods, totaled $231.1 billion. "
    Although your posts are rich in personal attacks and make false claims about what I said /posted, they don't have any backing from reputable sources of facts (Estimates are not facts.)
    You put words in my mouth with statement below, which contradicts what I actually said about international trade in services. I even suggested that England (as well as US) provided world with more "services" than China did!

    joepistole said here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/bric-news-comments.84022/page-44#post-3333910 (end of first paragraph)
    "No you don't Billy T, you inform with "misinformation". ... China isn't the largest importer of goods and services. The US is the largest importer of goods and services."

    I never said that China was world's largest importer of services. I said exactly the opposite, (first paragraph of post 875) so choke on the words you stuffed in my mouth.

    * underlined in the original as it is there a "click-on" link to:
    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/2013/pdf/trad1212.pdf

    Note my posts are filled with links to FACTS (not estimates) and many reference to post numbers where quoted statements were first said. - You don't have even one of either type - just claims.

    PS I'm still waiting for at least one example of me posting "misinformation" about China as you said I did in your personal attack that starts your post 878.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2015
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  3. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Hmm, so the CIA Fact Book isn’t credible? Well that isn’t surprising. You believe without question everything published by the state controlled Chinese propaganda machine and nothing published by the US government. You even believe in unsupported baseless American government conspiracies (e.g. US loaning out Germany’s gold reserves). As previously and repeatedly pointed out to you, not everything favorable thing you read in the press about China is true. And also as repeatedly pointed out to you and always overlooked by you is China has history of fudging its economic numbers in order to make the Chinese state look better. That’s why one can never take Chinese self-reported economic data as gospel, and yet you do. You unquestioningly accept whatever the Chinese state says as gospel truth and on the other hand you accept very little of what the US government publishes (e.g. US unemployment numbers) and you go even further by promulgating alleged US government conspiracies for which you have NO credible evidence. (e.g. gold conspiracies).


    Since you are unwilling or unable to reference any of the material showing how China fudges its economic numbers, I’ll post some of that material instead of just posting URLs. Close your eyes BillyT you don’t want to see this:


    “It’s typically advisable not to accept Chinese economic data at face value –as even the country’s own premier will tell you. Figures on everything from inflation and industrial output to energy consumption and international trade often don’t seem to gel with observation and sometimes struggle to stack up when compared with other indicators.

    How the figures are massaged and by whom is as much a secret as the real data itself. But in an unusual move, the National Bureau of Statistics – clearly frustrated with the lies, damn lies – has recently outed a local government it says was involved in a particularly egregious case of number fudging, providing rare insight into just how we’re being deceived.

    According to a statement on the statistics bureau’s website dated June 14 (in Chinese), the economic development and technology information bureau of Henglan, a town in southern China’s Guangdong province, massively overstated the gross industrial output of large firms in the area.” http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/06/19/a-rare-look-into-how-china-fudges-its-numbers/

    An investigation by the state statistician into a sample of 73 out of a total 249 firms counted in the data found that 38 were too small to be counted as large firms and so shouldn’t have been included, and a further 19 had either stopped production, moved out of the town or otherwise ceased to exit.

    The statement said that 71 companies surveyed by the statistics bureau had industrial output of 2.22 billion yuan ($362 million) in 2012 in total, but that the local government recorded it as being 8.51 billion, almost four times as much as the actual figure.” http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/06/19/a-rare-look-into-how-china-fudges-its-numbers/


    Here is the bottom line here BillyT you are an advocate for the Chinese state. You ignore data which is unfavorable to the Chinese state and believe without question every piece of propaganda from the Chinese state while disbelieving US economic data and promulgating dire unfounded US government conspiracies (e.g. US government loaning out German gold deposits). The irony here is that China is a closed state. It isn’t transparent. It’s data isn’t open to public inspection. The US data you don’t believe is. Yet you believe without question whatever the Chinese state wants you to believe.




    That really isn’t the issue here. The issue is you discount services and unfortunately for your China thesis services do have value. That’s why they are reported. The unfortunate fact for you is the US economy is much larger than China’s. The US economy is more diversified and stronger. The US economy accounts for a quarter of world quarter of world GDP. China, using China’s inflated numbers, accounts for half that amount.



    Oh my, bold wording again. Unfortunately all the bold wording in the world isn’t going to help you or make your words any less false. The only one putting words in your mouth is you and facts are not personal attacks. They are just facts, nothing more and nothing less.



    A couple of things, one; you said I claimed you contradicted yourself. Misinformation isn’t a contradiction BillyT. Misinformation and contradictions are not synonyms. This whole post and the ones which preceded it have very clearly demonstrated your misinformation. Yet you want to pretend the identified misinformation doesn’t exist…seriously? As proven by the multiple references including a CIA and other references, contrary to your assertion, China isn’t the largest importer. And the numbers you rely on are overstated, the degree and amount of overstatement is not known. But it is known China’s numbers, the numbers you so love, are overstated and cannot be relied upon. But that doesn’t stop you from relying upon them.


     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Another example of infrastructure building /investment / job creation/ efficiency improvements - what the US should be doing to help average Joe American, not the ultra rich 1%, if it had 97 billion dollars without just printing them, as China does.

    China has trillions of dollars, but all the labor building these new rail lines must be paid in Yuan and all the material used, which is not imported, too. This will put dollars up for buying Yuan with the net effect of increasing Yuan demand raising the value of the Yuan wrt the dollar - That hurts China's exporters, but China is switching away from the old export based economy, to a domestic demand one. - Why the CCP has been raising the purchasing power of salaries every year for last five by double digits.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
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  7. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I did not question the CIA Fact book - only noted it was giving estimates while my Bloomberg link: (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-to-become-the-world-s-biggest-trading-nation) was giving actual data from the prior year.

    Also I did not claim US had lent out Germany's gold. I said that might be one reason why Germany had to wait seven years to get it back. I also noted that a small fraction of US Air force's heavy lift planes could deliver it all to Frankfurt in less than day. They fly routine training missions in larger numbers than required.

    One should wonder why the Germans must wait so long to get their gold back. AFAIK, the US government has not explained why there are to be years of delay, but after a few months, did get the German government to agree / accept the protracted delay. I also wonder why the Germans did do that. Wondering about strange things is normal, especially since Germany had already built a new vault to hold the gold. In an earlier post, I showed photo of the new vault. Clearly Germany had expected to get its gold back promptly.

    Another possibility is that as Germany may have planned to lease its gold out to a reputable "bullion bank" and they agreed to the delay because the US is paying them the same, or slightly more, than the bullion bank's leasing fee.

    I don't know why the US did not just promptly deliver the Germans their gold. Doing that would have avoided a lot of anti-American speculation.

    Again: I'm still waiting for at least one example of me posting "misinformation" about China as you said I did in your personal attack that starts your post 878.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    Caption at ChinaDaily is:
    A high speed train heading to Yujiabao Station leaves Tianjin Railway Station in August, marking the extension of the Beijing-Tianjin intercity to Yujiabao in Tianjin's suburban Binhai area. Yang Baosen / Xinhua

    China's 17,000 Km of high speed track is growing rapidly still as are the need for these latest generation, world's fastest, locomotives. Soon they may be more numerous than the earlier generations. The quote in posts 203 says: "In the next 35 years, 615 billion yuan ($97 billion)" will be spent just in the greater Beijing region on new high-speed lines and equipment to better serve Beijing commuters, like post 203's Wang Jingting, a native of Tangshan whose 2.5 hour trip time from her Beijing job to her family home will become only 30 minutes. - She can move back to her home town not just visit her family on week-ends and have much lower rent - more disposable income. Part of China's transforming to a consumer demand, instead of export economy.

    Again: I'm still waiting for at least one example of me posting "misinformation" about China as you said I did in your personal attack that starts your post 878.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
  9. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    China is, or planning on, dominating Asia and Oceania, part of its WWIII efforts.

    Again: I'm still waiting for at least one example of me posting "misinformation" about China as you said I did in your personal attack that starts your post 878.
     
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2015
  10. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Deals more than doubled from year ago.

    I'm not completely sure, but think new nuclear reactors for both countries are already agreed to with joint design. Also have read more than year ago, that coal burning England will copy the Chinese invented / designed "ultra super critical steam" coal fired power plants as they get about 50% more KWH from each lump of coal.

    *** The world is following China's technological lead now in ultra super critical steam.
    Here it is:

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!


    The link also discusses a lot of coal related technology - clean up of coal etc.
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2015
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    I forgot to add for Joepistole at end of post 907:
    Again: I'm still waiting for at least one example of me posting "misinformation" about China as you said I did in your personal attack that starts your post 878.

    Just because it is a fact Joe does not like that China is rapidly advancing in many area, and leading the world in some important technologies, like high-speed rail, ultra super critical steam generation of power, economic growth rate, and I tell those FACTS, does not mean I am a stooge for China spreading "mis information."
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2015
  12. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    LOL...there are none so blind as those who will not see. You are being more than a little disingenuous BillyT. I suggest you go back and read my previous posts.
     
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  13. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Yes! You are one. I have shown pictures of the world's fastest train; The ultra super critical steam plant, and the "half Nile" NS water transfer project (six decades in the making) that delivers more than half the annual flow of the Nile, more than a 1000 miles from water rich SE China, to the extremely dry NE, Beijing area, etc.

    I forgot to mention, the world's largest (mile long) most beautiful and efficient air port with linear design and internal trains to quickly move travlers to / from their terminals and the bus/car park area, seen in the foreground. I'll post that photo again as it is way back in post 309 where you can read more details, including that China built it for the Olympics in less time (< a year) than England spent in hearing for minor changes at Heathrow! When CCP decides to do, it is soon well done.

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!



    Again: I'm still waiting for at least one example of me posting "misinformation" about China as you said I did in your personal attack that starts your post 878.
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2015
  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    What you have and continue to do is paint a very biased and incomplete picture of China. You promulgate the good stuff while ignoring the bad. You readily accept dubious material and represent it as fact if and only if it conforms to your pro China and anti US bias.
     
  15. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    You are welcome to point out with documentation (not just your assertions) some of the bad stuff I am ignoring.
     
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    22,910
    I have, I suggest you go read my last post.
     
  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    There is NOTHING specific there. Just your unsupported claim that I "accept dubious material and represent it as fact."

    I'm still waiting for at least one example of me posting "misinformation" about China as you said I did in your personal attack that starts your post 878.
     
  18. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    World needs more "green bonds."

    * Dim Sum bonds have been issued by corporations with operations in China for about a decade. (They pay off when mature in Yuan.) In fact MacDonalds issued the very first one to raise Yuan to fund its expansion of outlets in China. I think they were sold mainly to rich Chinese, looking for an alternative way to invest their yuan. What is new, is now ONLY China's "full faith and credit" backs 787 million dollar loan / bond, not a western corporation. Buyers must have confidence that the value of the yuan will not be depreciated - China no longer needs to help its exporters that way as China is changing to a domestic consumption economy.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2015
  19. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    In China it is the old of villages that are "left behind."

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    Caption was:
    "An Uygur man sits in front of his house in Kouzi village, Qincheng township, Hami of Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, on April 20, 2015. He usually wanders around the village or chats with his wife to kill time. Young people in the village have gone to cities for work."

    Most of the "left behinds" get funds from their urbanized working children to live on, but some who are still able struggle to earn their own living the old fashioned way, like below:

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    Caption was:
    "Guo Shengcai, 70, ploughs land with a buffalo in Langxi county, East China's Anhui province on May 26, 2015. His children left the village to work in cities"

    Often both parents are working in the city and "park" their children with their grandparent(s):

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    Captions was:
    "Tan Lingeng, 76, together with his two grandchildren, pulls a flat-bed trailer loaded with straws for home in Tanjia village, Luoxi town, Jinxian county, Nanchang of East China's Jiangxi province, on July 22, 2015. They go to the field for farm work in early morning. Tan and his wife live with their eight grand children in the village as all their children have gone into cities to earn a living."

    China has and is making by far the greatest and fastest urbanization in human history - doing in less than three decades what other countries have done, on much smaller scale, in a couple of centuries. In industralization too: As the speaker of Parliament said in his introduction to the Chinese president yesterday, with admiration: "China has done in two decades what England needed two centuries to do!" This obvious great improvement in material well being for the Chinese people probably required strong autocratic leadership. - The CCP, not elected by voters - that can, and often does, produce grid lock, not needed action.

    Seven more photos of the "left behind" at: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-10/21/content_22243862_3.htm
    This is a recognized social problem, that surely "time will cure." Part of the "cure" will probably be urban "boarding schools" where children live during the work week. The Chinese are a very creative, problem-solving, people. They need to keep both parents working as still have serious labor shortages.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2015
  20. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Tiny compared to the NS water project, I call the Half Nile as it moves a little more than half of the Nile's annual flow more than a 1000 miles, with outlet 45 meter higher than the source (Nuclear Powered pumps where needed, I think).

    Although "tiny" vs the NS project, it meets the needs of three locally important cities. The dam that made the resevoir is impresive:
    I'm not sure, but think the dam was raised so that the yet to be competed "middle branch" of th NS water project could just flow thru the resevoir. - Saved a lot of artificial cannal building as well as giving some "water demand buffering" (not much change in water level as demand varies). Dam was originally built with 97m height. (Now 14.6m taller.)
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2015
  21. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    First news from China's new five year plan:
    China ends the one child policy for ALL couples.

    Despite the world's largest and fastest urbanization - more than 300 million farm familes* moved into the cities in last decade - China has still a labor shortage! This dropping of the one-child policy is just simple recognition of the fact this internal migration source of more laborers is ending.
    * Except for the elderly. See three photos at: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/bric-news-comments.84022/page-46#post-3336662 (2 posts back / just "page up")

     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2015
  22. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    The one being released now is the 13th Five Year Plan.

    *Many believe that energy growth rate is the best index of true GDP growth, but under estimates it due to significant improvements in efficiency of energy use.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2015
  23. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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