The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

I already did a complete presentation of the Etp model in another thread. Though it started in the physics section, it can now be found at:

http://www.sciforums.com/threads/oi...d-law-of-thermodynamics-the-etp-model.145678/

You will find the answers you seek there.



---Futilitist

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1. The Etp curve follows the exact yearly average oil price with a correlation of .965!

2. Ha ha. Nice try. We must be having some serious deflation now, huh? You are grasping at straws.



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Oh, I see now -- you are using multiple names to evade a ban and you don't know how to use quotes. Yes, my mistake.

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Currently, the price of oil is 1/3 what the model predicts. That's really, really bad.

Also, I didn't realize you were using yearly averages. So you smooth the curve to enhance the correlation, then go back and use the daily prices to enhance the volatility? Lol.

Unresponsive. Typical. But you already knew of this failure; we discussed it before.

By the way, did you ever buy that dude's book? Do you even actually have access to "The ETP Model"?

 

Russ,

Take a deep breath. Please stop playing games.

There was a mixup when I tried to sign up as Futilitist, so I used Whatever instead of waiting for mod help. I have never been banned from peakoil.com. And I do know how to use quotes. I chose to format it the way I did because it looks better that way. So, yes, your mistake.

The model predicts that the price of oil will not generally exceed the Max Affordability curve from here on. The model is performing perfectly.

No. You are just wrong. You clearly do not understand the model.

Dude, I was making fun of your suggestion that the price of oil was rising because of inflation. That is about as responsive as I can be to that sort of bullshit.

BW Hill gave me a copy for free.



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What does "Etp" mean?

 

So you believe that gasoline is currently $12-$24 dollars per gallon?

How do you reconcile that with the increasing production of fracking, and the large amount of proven reserves?

Ah. So your predictions are hypothetical, and you do not claim that they have any basis in reality. In that case, I agree - we could hypothetically be out of oil. Gas prices could hypothetically be $12-$24 in 2015. We have hypothetically reached the maximum affordable oil price at $45 (even though it has, in reality, been proven we can afford $150 a barrel.) Fracking could hypothetically be unable to extract any more oil after 2015. I could hypothetically win the US presidential election in 2016. None of those statements have any basis in reality, of course, but they could be hypothetically true.

That's fine. And after your "basic thermodynamics" model failed, and after the Etp model eventually fails, then you will have a new model that you claim is the best and final model, and claim that anyone who disagrees with it is a fool.

No, science works through the scientific method. This proceeds thusly:
1) A scientist generates a hypothesis.
2) He performs an experiment to validate the hypothesis.
3) If the experiment validates the hypothesis, confidence in his hypothesis increases.

Here's how you operate per your posts here:
1) You make a prediction.
2) The prediction turns out to not come to pass.
3) You modify the original prediction and claim "I was right all along."

Using the scientific method is futile when you are talking to the futilitist!

 

billvon,

Please take some time to actually understand the Etp model. I don't have time to clear up all of your intentional and unintentional misunderstandings.



---Futilitist

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That is all fully explained in the original Etp model thread:

http://www.sciforums.com/threads/oi...d-law-of-thermodynamics-the-etp-model.145678/



---Futilitist

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So... it means "Total Production Energy"?

Why are you calling it "Etp" and not "TPE"?

 

Well, some of them perhaps. I'd also like to know how well this model performs with other commodities, oil is a source of a lot of other things. What about gold?

 

I did not create the Etp model. BW Hill did. He named it.

Commodities are currently falling along with oil because the economy is starting to collapse.



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So, if I understand what Mr Hill is doing, it's taking a constant physical parameter--the energy content of a barrel of oil, and producing what amounts to an inflation curve, or what that energy is worth in market dollar terms, your graph's 72% set of points, and "per consumer" terms, the other set of points. Or am I off the track already?

So, if I'm not off track, the theory says when either curve intersects the projected market value of a barrel, that's the break-even point? So if the graph included a plot of production costs over the same period, where would it intersect?

 

A copy for free? That must be because you're so brilliant and Hill has a lot of copies to give away.

 

I am not sure what you mean here. The Etp model is based on the second law of thermodynamics. It models the entropy in the life cycle of oil production. The price of oil rose as it became harder to get out of the ground over time, i.e., it took more and more energy to get the energy. The energy from oil must produce enough economic activity (GDP/barrel) that consumers can afford to pay for the entire oil production system, including investment in future production. This runs in a self-sustaining loop until the thermodynamic limit is reached, and the total cost of oil production exceeds the consumers ability to pay for it. This occurred around March of 2012. The oil price crashed in June of 2014 and from here on out, the net energy in a barrel of oil can no longer support both the economy and the entire oil production system. The oil industry will shrink while the economy will get weaker. Oil will reach what is called the "zero state" around 2021. At that point, it will take the energy from 1 barrel of oil to produce 1 barrel of oil, and oil use will no longer add to GDP. Oil currently provides about 38% of world GDP.

In order to meet the total cost of current oil production plus investment in future oil production, the current price of oil would have to be around 150 dollars per barrel.



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So shouldn't it be ETP and not Etp?

 

Like I said, I didn't name it.



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That's complete nonsense. You havn't empirically proofed anything to any body but yourself. You can't empirically prove anything to start with. Russ said your analysis is full of crap. Empirically you're full of caca.

 

You can't have the model matching and not matching at the same time. It has to be either one or the other.

Inflation is economics 101 stuff, futilitist. That you think it is BS just shows how badly ignorant you are of what you speak.

Great! Then provide it for us. We can't very well be criticized for not understanding something we've never seen!

No, it most certainly was not. That thread was closed because you didn't have the details of the model, so you couldn't provide them for us, so there was nothing to talk about.

More funny futilitist quotes. Pulled this nugget from his April thread:

So, we're in the midst of a collapse of industrial civilization that started more than a year ago. Pretty boring collapse. When do I get to riot, futilitist?