Food, inflation & social stbility

Food shortage? What food shortage?

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Note post had photo of two grossly fat women feeding (stuffing) hot dogs into the other´s mouth that does not appear now. Why? Has it been edited away by the sciforum powers that be, or has the link (Which you can see if you start to edit this post) ceased to work?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

"... The {Canadian} conservative government says it will pass legislation this autumn to end the Wheat Board's marketing monopoly on western wheat and barley in August 2012. The change will allow Prairie farmers to choose whom they sell their crops to for the first time since World War Two. Canada is the world's top shipper of spring wheat, durum and malting barley. ...

Among the alternatives are scenarios in which Ottawa would leave in place part of the CWB's monopoly -- for example on export sales only -- but the government has given no sign it would consider that idea. ...

The Wheat Board has said it cannot compete with established grain handlers unless it has regulated access to storage and handling facilities, because it has none of its own. Canada's grain-handling industry is dominated by Viterra Inc , Richardson International Ltd, and Cargill Inc , while U.S.-based Bunge Ltd has said it is interested in taking a bigger role in Canada after the Wheat Board monopoly ends. ..." From: http://cs.schwab.com/clicker/cli?rq=sr&sid=37441995&MID=mcs0729329672124bacmr4hlgkaaaaatf1n0wk

Billy T comment: China can and will pay more for these grains. Killing / giving up / the government's control over to whom the grains are sold is clever way to duck the blame from US etc. when they cease to be the main buyers of Canada's grains. If you think the price of a loaf of bread is getting to be ridicules, in a few years you will long for the "good old days in 2011" when bread was cheap.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

“… Cargill: Founded in 1865 by William Cargill, son of a Scottish sea captain, the agricultural-commodities giant is in its seventh generation of family ownership, a record unmatched by any other major U.S. firm. About 100 descendants of William Cargill control the company, which is based amid the mansions and lakes of Minneapolis suburb Wayzata, Minnesota … Including its Mosaic Co. (MOS) fertilizer unit, Cargill’s revenue jumped 15 percent to $91.8 billion in the nine months that ended in February, … Profit in the period almost doubled to $3.5 billion {BT insert: yes BILLIONS, not millions} from a year earlier as food prices peaked. …” From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...hain-while-assailing-government-hoarding.html

BT comment: But up keep on lake side mansions is expensive, so tax payers must keep nearly a hundred million in farm subsidies coming to the Cargill family.

By edit on 15 Sept11:
Cargill is still world's largest private company with fewer owners (~100) than others that come close. Forbes magazine publishes an annual private company ranking using estimated revenues. Here are last year's top five.

Cargill (farm products) $109.8 billion - but only Cargill get billions in taxpayer's farm subsidies.
Koch Industries (chemicals) $100.0 billion
Bechtel (construction) $30.8 billion
HCA (hospitals) $30.1 billion
Mars (candy) $28.0 billion

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

"... From the year 2000 to 2020, the population in developing countries will have increased by 40 percent. At the same time, income growth in these nations will have jumped by an average of 4.3 percent each year. The latter figure is helping to increase the size of the middle class in these nations, with China leading the way by a wide margin. ...

By 2020, China will have more than 250 million citizens reach middle-class income levels. And these citizens have grown tired of just eating rice, wheat and other grain-based goods. The increase in wages is creating a “dietary transition,” and creating significant demand for something Americans eat several times a week: Pork.

From 2007 to 2017, Asian demand for meat products will increase from 115 million tons to 149 million, a 30-percent leap, according to WorldPoultry.net. And China’s middle class is driving this huge boost. The luxury of a meat-based diet is finally affordable in this region of the world. ..."
From: http://www.investmentu.com/2011/September/lean-hogs-prime-profits.html

(1.043)^20 = (1.084879)^10 = (1.18434…)^5 = 1.043x(1.40047…)^2 = 1.043x(1.961322…) = 2.046…

SUMMARY: Between 2000 and 2020 the Asian incomes (and Brazil's) will increase more than five times faster /more than the 40% population increase. Furthermore, because all have certain minimum essential expense taken from their incomes, the remaining income for discretionary expenses, like gasoline and meat, will increase about 10 times more than the population does.

Asians will be buying a lot more gasoline for their motor bikes and cars and eating more meat per person than Americans can afford with dollar collapsed in value. I.e. the tables will have turned: Most Americans will be eating gains with tiny pieces of meat for flavoring and riding their bikes or walking. The US will still be earning considerable "hard currencies" as the fertile Mid West exports grains, either directly or as pork and chickens to Asia.

Unfortunately, less than 5% of the US population will have a job connected with this economic activity so most will be hungry, living on government hand outs. Probably privately owned Cargill and others making huge profits with food exports will find that political action has taxed them heavily so that the government can buy enough grains to at least prevent mass starvation in the US.

Alternatively more extreme political action may have installed a different from capitalism system - I.e. the government just confiscates grains, etc. and distributes them - Much like Sadam Hussein and Stalin did. - I.e. private ownership of critical items simple ceases and US has a "centrally directed economy" (with the associated lower productivity, etc.)

One thing is certain - Americans will not starve while the hundred owners of Cargill make billions each year exporting food to Asia. More details on Cargill in adjoining post 83.

 

If picture not here, go to source link (ChinaDaily often blocks up load after a few days.)

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

US chicken wings and feet are sold very cheap in China.

Up to 300,000 US jobs are under threat after China imposed the duties on imports of US chicken boiler products, comprising various cuts of chicken, US Trade Representative (USTR) Ron Kirk claimed on Tuesday. WTO rules permit member countries to impose duties on imports of merchandise that are found to be dumped or subsidized, if those imports cause injury to the domestic industry.
US officials have claimed that before the imposition of duties, the US was China's largest supplier of chicken broiler products with more than 600,000 tons exported in 2009. US exports of these products to China are down 90 percent since the duties came into effect.
"For a long time, the prices of US chicken broiler products sold in China were lower than the cost of production, according to our findings," Huo said. "It has damaged the profit margins of domestic producers." {China’s} investigation indicated that the US has subsidized soybeans and corn for its poultry industry, thus harming Chinese producers.
From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/us/2011-09/22/content_13764812.htm

Billy T comment: Last paragraph is certainly true , Why Us will probable lose in recently filed WTO suit against China’s offsetting tariffs; however, my main point in posting this is to show, again, how dumb generous farm subsidies are. Not only do they add billions to the tax payer’s tax bill, and make it profitable to export foods, reducing the domestic supply and increasing the domestic cost of food on your table, but chicken parts alone have cost 300,000 jobs BY US ESTIMATES!

And for what benefit? – About half a dozen corporation are growing richer. The poultry industry in the US is extremely vertically integrated and tight knit (non-competitive). The corporation delivers the feed (you cannot buy it independently or grow some yourself as you will lose right to sell to your only buyer). The corporation supplies the baby chicks, about every 6 weeks. The corporation requires you use their design of chicken coop, (no windows, etc.) Their schedule for turning lights on and off. Their hormones and drugs.

One lady, a large volume producer, refused – put windows in the walls of the coop as she thought it was “inhuman” to treat chickens as if they were just protein converters, who never to see the sunlight,and were stuffed with drugs, etc. The corporation but her out of business and no “competitor”* would buy from her either.
-----------------
* Not really a competitor – The poultry industry in US is an illegal restraint of trade monopoly, but no one complains as they scientifically deliver tons of drug filled chickens, who never scratched dirt, at world’s lowest prices in part because of your tax subsidy to the chicken feed. How DUMB can US Voters be?

 

As mentioned earlier in this thread, I work in retail grocery and I am watching the prices of food creeping upwards. Week after week, the same products go up, most a few cents at a time, and products that seldom change price are now starting to also increase in price.

Wheat and buckwheat jumped the most early this month. Five years ago, a 10 kg bag of flour would go on sale for $4.99. Now the Sale price is $9.99, regularly 11.98 or more.

 

"... Famine in Africa requires “concerted global action to strengthen food security and agriculture,” Geithner said. “Our investments in agriculture must spur long-term transformations by increasing agricultural productivity and incomes of smallholder farmers.”*
The drought in the Horn of Africa “demonstrates the severity and intensity of risks associated with changing climate conditions that will only intensify over time,” Geithner said. ..."
From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ing-democracies-need-inclusive-economies.html

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Billy T comment: The modern version of "let them eat cake" is "let them eat words."

but unfortunately global food production, driven by profits, will never supply what the poor need. As they say: "Charity begins at home" and with 15% of Americans needing help (food stamps, etc.) to put food on their table, words are about all we can offer the children dying each day of starvation in two different parts of of Africa.

--------------
* That local production of food will not happen so long as US subsidies food production with your tax dollars, making it (even with the cost of shipping) cheaper than the local farmer can produce. Even farmers in Africa, buy American rice, etc. for their table! In part with the US's foreign aid, which your tax dollars pay for. - A crazy system, which increases your tax bill and the cost of food you buy**, I know, but it gives the Cargill family billions each year and they make big campaign contributions.
More on the Cargills in post 83.

** Selling it to Americans must be at least as profitable as exporting it (to China and others). ~1/3 of US corn production now makes alcohol instead of feeding pigs and chickens. With their rapidly increasing wealth Chinese now pay about twice what they did last year for pork, their preferred "red meat." Americans will increasing get their protein from "franks and beans" if they get any from meat instead of grains.

This post could have been placed in the thread "How DUMB can US Voters be?" or thread "Stand by for worse news to come."

 

oh that is funny Billy .

 

"... As of 2010, China had more than 3,200 KFC stores and 1,300 McDonalds restaurants—the dominant chains that seem to be meeting the needs of a growing number of time-pressed, dual income city dwellers with rising disposable household incomes. ...

In addition to enjoying KFC's trademark fried chicken, patrons in China can now enjoy KFC congee, or rice porridge, and egg tarts. KFC even started a Chinese fast food chain called East Dawning to further penetrate the local market. Its experience typifies the ways in which multinationals are finding success in China through localization of products and services. Local fast food competitors are also catching on, and several Chinese quick service chains are expanding aggressively. Some offer regional specialties and one Taiwanese bakery has grown to over 100 stores in Shanghai alone.

But with this trend of expanding chain restaurants also comes expanding waistlines. China’s obesity rate is expected to soon double..."

Billy T comment:Not only are the ever richer Asians eating more meat, etc. that requires many times more grain to produce, they are plain and simply eating more too - growing fat etc.

 

Up dating post 83 (on family owned Cargill getting billions in farm subsidies from poor Joe tax payer):

"... How about Cargill? Surely you've heard of this agricultural giant. It's over 145 years old, has annual sales worth more than $108 billion and is one of the world's largest companies. But you can't get in on the action... not unless you marry into the family. ..."

From Yahoo Email to me today of article by Andrew Snyder, Editorial Director, Inside Investing Daily

Note post 83 reports sales as only 91.8 billion, so Cargill is still rapidly growing. If with 10% profit margin that is ~10 billion to divide between the ~100 family members or $100 million dollars profit to each this year.

Don't you think they should at least let Joe fish in the large private lake their 50 million dollar plus mansion homes adjoin? - Not a chance it is all private policed property for miles around the lake.

PS to Joe: Keep those billions coming - we must protect the "family farmers." Read more in my old thread: "How DUMB can US voters be?"

 

"... By David Zeiler, Associate Editor, Money Morning

A drought affecting one-third of the lower 48 states has hurt several key food crops, driving up prices this year and assuring widespread food inflation well into 2012.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, the drought has caused more than $10 billion in losses to agriculture and cattle, a number it expects to keep rising as the drought continues.

Meteorologists blame the drought on a La Niña weather pattern expected to last at least through the winter.

Crops most affected include corn and peanuts. In addition, the lack of rain dried cattle grazing pastures to dust, which has translated to higher beef prices.

"Yes, we are going to see higher prices this Thanksgiving," Purdue University agricultural economist Corinne Alexander told The Atlantic.

The American Farm Bureau estimates that a Thanksgiving meal for 10 will cost 13% more this year than it did last year. ..."

 

Price increases that agricultural commodities made from their lows in 2010 to their highs in 2011:

Cotton +241%, Sugar +164%, Corn +146%, Coffee +142%, Wheat +110%, Orange Juice +63%, Soybeans +57%, Cocoa +49%.
Average price increase: +121.5% Not mentioned by my NIA source is rice (probably as not a big seller in US). Thailand is world's largest exporter of rice. Its export prices have about doubled - a serious problem for poor Asians.

In part due to bad weather (floods & draughts,* both of which seem to be early effects of climate change –For example, globally, there have been more than twice as many class 4 & 5 hurricanes in last decade as in the prior decade – they are thermal energy by products as are floods and draughts.)

In part due to prosperity in the "third world" - eating more meat**, candy, OJ, chocolate, etc. and "western coffee" more fashionable than tea now (not to mention French wines, even at more than $1000 per bottle, bought by wealthy Chinese.)

In part due to growing populations (7 billion humans now) and shrinking agriculture land as cities expand, erosion and toxic waste destroy farmable land.

In part due to biofuels, especially corn to alcohol in the US now using > 1/4 of the corn crop.

* In both US and China, two huge agricultural centers, there have been worst ever weather extremes. Texas now has worst ever draught with more than 1/4 of some crops lost. Northern US had terrible floods with lower Mississippi diverted to avoid New Oreans flooding with large crop (and farmed cat fish) losses in the intentionally flooded region to the west. Up stream, dikes were dynamited, first time ever, flooding more farms. (Legal results / cost yet to be determined.)

Major lakes in North China have dropped 80 meters (about the length of a US football field!) and just getting water to drink was serious problem in some cities, while parts of Southern China had the worst floods ever. (China is building the world's largest pumped water transport system to move water from South to North.) Most of the world, US included, is "mining water" - pumps lowering the water table. AFAIK only Brazil has more fresh water than it needs and the world's largest aquifer as a result.

** Cost of pork, the favorite meat in China, is up 53% in the last year despite China now raising more pigs than the rest of the world's total!

NONE OF THE CAUSES WILL GO AWAY - they will only get worse. Food prices will kill millions next year and with so many Americans now on food stamps etc. add to US deficits. Food prices were a large factor in why the "Arab Spring" occurred now instead of two decades ago when the same dictators were in power. Despite western spin, the Arab Spring is more about jobs and food on the table than a desire for democracy, etc.

 

I could have posted the following in the "Stand by for worse news" thread " as your food prices inflation will soon get much worse, but re-awaken this old thread instead.

"... Looking only at the 48 contiguous states, 55.96% of the country’s land area is in moderate drought or worse — the highest percentage on record in that regard. And just last week, the USDA reduced this summer’s expected corn production figure by 1.8 billion bushels. It also further reduced the per-acre crop yield to 146 bushels per acre this month, down from 166 last month.

Corn exports from the U.S. in the marketing year that ended on August 31 accounted for the lowest amount of global trade in 41 years, according to the USDA. The U.S. shipped 42 million tons of the grain to overseas buyers, accounting for 43% of global exports, the least since 1971. and that share is falling further. ...

As growth of its GMO seeds outside the U.S. is expected to outpace the domestic market for the first time during the upcoming crop season, Latin America has taken on new importance for Monsanto and its rivals, including DuPont Co. (DD) and Syngenta AG (SYT). Next season, 2012-’13 Brazilian soybean growers could be in place to jump from the world’s No. 2 producer and dispute the top-“seeded” United States. Brazil’s 2012-’13 soybean production is expected to rise 25%, to 83.1 million tons. ...

Argentina is increasing food export quotas as it prepares to sell more to China.* The two countries signed a deal on corn exports earlier this year, raising market expectations that Argentine corn would soon start heading to the world’s most populous country. ... Argentina is forecast to sell abroad 13 million tons of 2011-’12 corn and 16 million tons of the 2012-’13 crop, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Drought Conditions Not Just a Single-Year Event. So it’s the big farms of Brazil and Argentina that have become a key battleground for Monsanto as the agribusiness heavyweight seeks to maintain its market leadership in GMOs in Latin America. And this is not just a one-year event.

Argentina is the world’s second-largest corn producer. In addition, it is the world’s foremost seller of soybean oil and the third-largest seller of soybeans. So it’s natural that Monsanto would make a $329 million investment in a corn seed factory there to increase production and improve revenues from farmers using seeds with its traits embedded. The new factory is scheduled to open in 2013 and, once the plant is completed, Argentina will boast the two largest factories for seed production in the world. ..."
From: http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/sow-your-investing-seeds-in-this-ag-technology-14618?FIELD9=3

----------
* Billy T has several times noted that China has more pigs than all the rest of the world´s total and needs to soon double that number as pork is the favorite meat of the Chinese who, unlike Americans, have rapidly growing purchasing power and are eating more meat per capita with growing population. China can not grow the needed feed so will be steadily increasing its imports of grains, especially corn and soy beans. Most of that will come from Brazil and Argentina, but US´s fertile mid west with very industralized agriculture can still competitively export too. China can and will pay more than Americans want too,

Why your food bills will rapidly increase, EVEN WHEN THE DROUGHT ENDS.

Thus, I re-confirm my several years old prediction that when US is in deep depression, Marshal Law will be required to control the food riots and sacking of grocery stores in poor intercity neighborhoods. (When I first made that prediction - nearly every one thought I was crazy. - I bet less than 90% do now.)

 

You're referring to yourself in the third person now?

China would have to more than double its consumption of meat per-capita to catch up with the amount that the USA currently eats.

China's population is barely growing at all, due to the One Child Policy, and will soon begin to contract. America's population will continue to grow for the forseeable future.

Chinese purchasing power only looks strong in terms of the internal market - due to the currency suppression, they do not have great purchasing power when it comes to imports. Moreover, the Chinese economy is currently stalling out. The official statistics claiming the opposite are bullshit propaganda for the ignorant and credulous.

 

So What? I was speaking {as was clear, if you had not cut my post 94 paragraph short to distort the point} of the rapid growth of pork consumption and corn + soy imports needed in China; and of the effect this will have on food prices in US EVEN WHEN THE DROUGH ENDS, not making a comparison to US meat eaten per capita.

I am not sure world could supply 330 million more people a step up to the level of meat consumption that US enjoys Nor to the oil consumption level, etc. As developing world does increase consumption of meat and oil, the prices increases will force US level of consumption down, probably to lower level than cash rich China enjoys. They certainly will cease lending the US money to buy with in competition with their purchases.

Well that "stalling out" is five times greater growth than in the US, so how do you describe the US economy. - Perhaps: "In a steep nose dive headed for a crash" ?

BTW, Chinese buying more meat per capita is in the domestic economy as is done by Chinese PEOPLE. The government does the importing of grains. The people are forcing the government to import and it has lots of money to do so with. That was my point. I.e. Food prices will be going up in the US even when the drought ends. (Unless, there is a drastic change in the US´s capitalistic system towards state control / planned economy. - I.e. unless privately owned Cargill etc. are told they can not sell to the highest bidder, etc.)

 

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

Although painful, this "worst drought in 25 years" may help Americans adjust to higher food prices that will come as China (et. al.) imports more grain. Some details in last post as to why China will be an increasing importer of grains.

"... Only 31 percent of this year’s crop was good or excellent last week, the USDA data showed. The figure was lower than the 38 percent rated as poor or very poor. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg ..."

Photo and this quote from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...rought-poised-to-worsen-chart-of-the-day.html

 

You were implying that China would end up with a higher standard of living, and the USA a lower. I pointed out that, even if such trends do occur, they would have to go on for a very long time and be very dramatic for China's standard of living to catch that of the USA.

So you agree that the current US standard of living is very high, and unlikely to ever be matched by China. Glad we settled that.

That's unlikely, considering that we can produce a lot more food than China can, and have a lot fewer mouths to feed.

How is that "certain?" China is a long way from becoming an import-heavy consumption economy.

No, it isn't. As I said, that number you are referring to is a fiction. The CCP exaggerates GDP numbers to make themselves look good, and makes it difficult for anyone to figure out the correct numbers. But the reliable estimates indicate that Chinese growth is much lower than the official numbers, and possibly near zero:

http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/bloomberg-inflated-notions/

The US economy has been in a slow recovery phase for some time now.

What you have established is that a rising global standard of living implies rising demand for food, and specifically meat. That is uncontroversial. But food prices in the USA are dictated by more than just demand - there is also supply. Right now supply is being hit hard by the drought, but you have provided nothing in the way of analysis of secular trends in global supply - and so you have not presented anything that qualifies as a serious analysis of global food price trends. Likewise, you have provided nothing that is specific to the USA - greater global demand puts upward pressure on food prices everywhere. Given that, it is difficult not to conclude that your focus on the USA in this rhetoric is prejudicial and intended to provoke and misrepresent (you dress the issue up as "China vs. USA food competition," when in fact you are describing "China vs. everyone food competition.").

 

Yes, in not much more than a decade, Chinese will have a better standard of living than Americans do. Not by "catching up" to the US but due to the rapid lowering of US living standards when the dollar collapses.

Yes, I have been predicting this for 6+ years. No longer do 100% of the readers think this is impossible / crazy.

Are you agreeing that the US will adopt more of a state controlled economy in which food marketing companies like privately owned Cargill will be told they can not sell to the highest bidder (China)? I have several times agreed that the US mid west can produce more food than American needs, what is in doubt is to whom will it be sold - Americans or Chinese who can pay 50% more for it. I.e. current US capitalism / free market / must die to prevent poor Americans from doing so when China wants to pay 50% than they can.

 

So, nothing to do with trends in food supply and demand, particularly. Just an invocation of your fixed pet prophesy.

No.