gas prices and obama

Discussion in 'Politics' started by sifreak21, Mar 1, 2012.

  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    No, OPEC controls price by controlling supply and establishing a targeted price.

    Deviations from that targeted price are made manifest in the futures markets when exogenous events occur that cause unexpected changes in the supply - demand functions. Commodities futures merely expresses those deviations and future expectations.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2012
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  3. rpenner Fully Wired Valued Senior Member

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    All four of those sources only say that the US is (2011-2012) a net exporter of petroleum products. All of them make this distinction if not always in the headlines. Table 1 of the weekly Petroleum Status Report of the U.S. Energy Information Administraion (EIS) makes this clear, and the WSJ pointed me to the EIS as the source of their claim.

    http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petr...etroleum_status_report/current/pdf/table1.pdf

    Line (4) shows we are a net importer of crude oil to the tune of about 8.7 million barrels per day (which is down from circa 2006). This is broken down into (5) Imports and (9) Exports. Line (21) shows we are next exporter of oil products to the tune of about 0.88 million barrels per day with this being broken into (22) Exports and (23) Imports. This is a fairly recent development, as at the same time of year last year we were a net importer here as well.

    Looking into the numbers, the biggest effect seems to be the export of gasoline to Mexico and Central America (incl. Panama) and export of Pentane Plus to Canada.

    Here is a little Web 2.0 app they made to look at slices of the data.
    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_neti_a_ep00_IMN_mbblpd_m.htm
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2012
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  5. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Correct.

    NET Petroleum Product Exports were about a tenth of our NET Petroleum Imports.

    So given those figures and terms, would you say that this reply to Tiassa's assertion that we were a net exporter of Oil in 2011, was reasonable?

     
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  7. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

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    Correct me if I'm wrong... but aren't some petroleum based products, that is to say, products derived from petroleum in some form, actually made of many, many products and thus our VOLUME of petroleum PRODUCT being exported would inherently be higher than our petroleum import by the very nature of the products themselves?
     
  8. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    None of this is the least bit relevant Arthur. The issue here is the false allegation from Republicans like you that President Obama has done something to cause oil prices to rise. And there is simply no evidence to support that lie, the lie Republicans have been promulgating - not to mention the fact that oil prices are now falling after a brief seasonal rise.

    Oil production under 3 years of the Obama administration have increased 15% versus falling 14% under the 8 years of the previous Republican administration. Additionally, the permitting process has gone from almost a year under the Republican George Junior administration to 60 days under the Democratic Obama administration.

    Instead of addressing the real issues, you are obfuscating with irrelevant minutia.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2012
  9. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Joe, I don't find the erroneous contention that the US has become a net exporter of Oil to be in the category of "irrelevant minutia".

    Indeed if the US had indeed become a net exporter of oil, the price of Gas would plumet and we would see a huge reversal in our balance of trade (to the tune of a third of a Trillion dollars per year)

    And a Third of a Trillion dollars isn't minutia.

    As to the price of gasoline, I have not accused Obama's admin of doing much one way or the other, except for not approving the pipeline and not opening ANWR and the pipeline isn't expected to have but a tiny impact on gas prices and I've already discussed how ANWR wouldn't have any impact for about 10 years, so even if Obama approved the pipeline and opened up ANWR the first day he was in office it still wouldn't help reduce the price of gasoline while he was in office.

    Oil has a LONG pipeline, from date of lease to a lengthy exploration process to finally drilling production wells.

    If you will note I said:

    Actual problems like the fact that growing Global Demand for oil exceeds the rather stagnant Global supply of oil which causes the price to be bid up until you force bidders out of the market.

    The slight increases in our production is meaningless to gas prices as we produce so little oil compared to the global demand. Sure increasing our production 10% is good for our balance of trade, but clearly it is not sufficient to even dent the price of oil as long as we are using ~19 million barrels of oil each day, and only producing ~9 or so.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2012
  10. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    No.

    We import about 9 million barrels of oil each day to the US.

    We produce about 6 million barrels of oil

    We add to that 4 million barrels of Ethanol and other liquids from producing gas and via refinery expansion.

    Or roughly 19 million barrels of oil per day, about half of which is imported.

    We export less than 1 million barrels of Petroleum products per day.

    And so we import FAR more oil and oil products than we export.

    To put this in perspective, the U.S. will export ~350,000 barrels a day more petroleum products that it imports in 2012 (according to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook Feb report)

    But just Gasoline demand in the U.S. will be almost 9 million barrels a day, or Twenty Five times as much as we export.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29/u-s-was-net-oil-product-exporter-in-2011.html
     
  11. quadraphonics Bloodthirsty Barbarian Valued Senior Member

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    Actually, he has: he's pursued a campaign of international pressure and oil sanctions against Iran (a major oil exporter). That's a big component of what has driven the price of oil up lately.

    It being campaign season, the Republicans are trying to have it both ways against the incumbent: accuse him of not being tough enough on Iran (and promising they'd be way tougher), while simultaneously complaining about the fall-out from his toughness towards Iran (and promising they'd end up with cheaper gas, despite attacking Iran).

    The upshot is that, in addition to pointing out how little influence the President has over gas prices, especially in the short term, you should be responding that, to the extent the President has driven up gas prices, it's because he's hammering Iran. And then ask the Republican in question why they're in favor of Iran nuking Israel.
     
  12. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Crude production from the 12 members of the OPEC was UP by 115,000 barrels a day from March, at 31.8 million BPD (Dow Jones).

    The increase came despite Iran's production declining by about 150,000 barrels a day (down to 3.2 million BPD) over the same period and so other OPEC producers in the Persian Gulf have been able to offset the Iranian decline.

    Mainly Iraq.

    Iraq has now reached its highest production in 20 years, and was up 193,000 barrels a day over the last two months to 3.06 million BPD.

    And China is now self ensuring it's Oil tankers which gets it around the EU insurance gambit.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-ups-april-output-despite-irans-20-year-low-2012-05-02
     
  13. rpenner Fully Wired Valued Senior Member

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    Going back to the web 2.0 interface, the Net Importing of oil (crude + products) peaked between 2004-2008 and we are down at least 10% from that high, yet don't have gas rationing or lines. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRNTUS2&f=A

    Correspondingly domestic oil production slumped 2004-2008 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=A

    Gulf Coast and Midwest oil production increases have resulted in a 2009-2012 rebound, with West Coast production continuing to trend downwards since 1988.

    Retail gasoline prices remain below the July 2008 peak. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_m.htm
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2012
  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    I don't think you can blame the earlier Iranian related increases in gasoline prices on President Obama. The Iranian nuclear issue predated the Obama presidency. And when the speculation over an Iranian military confrontation began a few months ago, Obama promptly managed to forestall hostile actions and bring Iran back to the negotiation table with firm language and stiff trade sanctions. But he also offered Iran a out, the negotiation table which they took. I view it as a very smart move by Obama. Obama by his action has taken military action off the table for now. No rational being wants another Middle East war at this time, including President Obama.

    Republicans are always trying to have it both ways.
     
  15. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, but we hit a recession in 2006, and still have over 8% unemployment which reduced consumption and we now require 10% ethanol in our gasoline, and our growing natural gas production is generating a lot of gas liquids which are added to the input mix.

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    But none of that changes the fact that our Net Petroleum Product Exports were about a tenth of our Net Petroleum Imports in 2011.
     
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    How is that related to President Obama and gasoline prices? It isn't.

    You have no evidence that if the US became a net exporter of oil, it would in the least bit affect the price of world oil. In case you didn't know, there is an oil cartel, it's called OPEC that regulates the world supply of oil in order to manipulate global oil pricing. This is sheer baseless speculation and repetition of Republican talking points.

    It's not the issue, and not related to President Obama in any way.

    Your record is pretty transparent and not always consistent with your contentions/representations.

    So why are you and your fellow Republicans trying to hammer President Obama for higher gasoline prices?
     
  17. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    I agree, it isn't, and I never claimed this side issue had anything to do with the price of gasoline.

    No, it's not sheer baseless speculation, if the US became a net exporter of oil, the global oil supply would grow by at least 13%.
    That's HUGE and of course that much of an increase in Supply of Oil would drop the price of oil, because while OPEC is a big supplier, they are just as much reliant on selling their oil (as for most of the OPEC countries it is there main to nearly sole source of income) as the rest of the world is to buying it.

    And as you can see, because of their need to sell oil, oil prices no longer track OPEC production.

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    And NO, this issue it is not a Republican talking point because no one on either side of the aisle expects the US to become a net exporter of oil unless/until we DRASTICALLY cut our consumption. But our country is growing and at current consumption levels we would have to increase by nearly triple our current domestic production for that to occur and considering we hit our peak production in the early70s that is simply not going to happen any time soon (if ever).

    I agree, and I never said it was.
    That huge amount of money is what we would save on imports of oil if we had become, as was claimed, a net exporter of Oil in 2011 and I've simply been pointing out that wasn't true. (I mean we all wish it was true, but alas pigs are not flying this year either)

    No Joe, you always subscribe to me all sorts of positions which I've never supported. Like claiming that most of the rise in the price of Gas is Obama's fault.

    Joe, I'm not in agreement with everything the Republicans say or do.

    When it comes to Election year politics I find both parties stretch the truth as they try to get their candidate elected and so of course Republicans are going to try to remind voters on the difference in gas prices since he took office. Since the difference in price is a simple fact but the reasons behind it are not nearly so simple or easy for the Dems to explain in a 30 second TV spot.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2012
  18. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

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    Does this take into account petroleum based products such as plastics, lubricants, and other exports, or exports that are manufactured using petroleum products (such as technical electronics and the like)?
     
  19. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Some it would count (lubricants) some it wouldn't count such as exports that are manufactured using petroleum products.

    But that doesn't matter because things that are manufactured using petroleum products and then exported do not count as us exporting OIL, which was the claim.

    And the EIA keeps track of those things that are counted as Petroleum Products and our exports of them and so we know that our recent exports of Petroleum Products are roughly 1/10th of the volume of our imports of Oil and Petroleum Products.

    See http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/monthly/pdf/table2.pdf for a decent breakdown and you will see that about 80% of the petroleum ends up as Gasoline, Aviation or Diesel fuel and we use about 90% of that ourselves.
     
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    So let's be clear here, you are admitting that all of this Republican/Tea Party nonsense about President Obama being responsible for the increases in the price of gasoline is groundless bunk?

    Two, what other disagreements do you have with the Republican Party? It is one thing to remind, it is another to lie. Are you now refuting all of your previous defenses of Republicans/Tea Partiers (e.g. the witch who was not a witch) and issues and attacks on Democrats?

    Three, your speculation about oil prices if the US should become a net oil exporter is just that, baseless speculation not grounded in fact. OPEC and specifically the Saudi's have the capacity both physical and financial to restrict the supply of oil if needed. They have done it frequently to suit their needs.

    Four, you want to limit the energy discussion to oil. But energy is more than just oil. The US is on it's way to becoming a net exporter of natural gas - a natural gas export facility is being built now to export a glut of US natural gas which could be a fuel that could compete with natural gas if were reliably available at your local gas station. But oil firms like Exxon have little incentive to introduce an alternative to gasoline and initiate a fuel price war - gasoline versus natural gas. An alternative fuel like natural gas could be a game changer with respect to gasoline prices. But the powerful oil interests have no interest in a fuel that would compete with gasoline.
     
  21. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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    Not all of it, I do have issues as I've said with not opening ANWR and not allowing the pipeline and not increasing the leases to new desireable areas.

    No Joe, I said I don't always agree with everything they say, that's not to say I refute ANY of my previous posts on the matter. The point Joe, is because something is said by a Republican or a Tea Partier does not mean I automatically agree with it.

    They have never cut production by 9 million barrels per day and kept it there.
    So, no, this is far greater than OPECs ability to control.
    So the price of oil would follow the law of Supply and Demand.
    If the US was a net exporter of oil today, the world supply would grow by 13%.
    OPEC simply couldn't cut their production by 33%, and keep it there, to keep the global supply constant. They depend on the oil sales for way too much of their country's financial needs. Such a massive increase in the availability of oil, 9+ million barrels of oil per day (plus what ever we export) would lower the price of oil. This isn't rocket science, nor is it going to happen, so it really is a moot point.

    No Joe, I'm just trying to resolve a single, but massive error, made earlier in this thread, that supposedly the US was a NET exporter of OIL in 2011.

    If you want to start a thread based on your assertions about the oil companies and energy, then do so, but this thread is not the place for that totally different discussion.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2012
  22. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    It is a simple yes or no question.

    But you do defend it. I am still waiting for a list of issues in which you disagree with the Republican/Tea Party position.

    The relevant metric here is percent of production, not the number of barrels per day. And the Saudi's alone they have in the past cut production by more than a third in the past. The amount of revenue per barrel needed to fund the Saudi state is less than half the current price. So there is plenty of room to cut back production.

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    No you are quibbling in an attempt to obfuscate the inane Republican/Tea Party claims.
     
  23. adoucette Caca Occurs Valued Senior Member

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