How can climate change denialism be explained?

It won't make a difference. People need goods and services and someone has to provide it. I agree there will be a revolution as significant as the Industrial Revolution, but it will not be based on the ever increasing consumption of energy, which oil and no combination of alternative energy can provide.

I suppose miracles can happen, maybe the cold fusion thing will work out. But until then, what I'm saying is true.

 

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This country doesn't have billions of people. In any case, there will be agriculture, and it will involve more labor than it has in the past, and no chemical fertilizers or pesticides. This isn't my wish, it's inevitable. A home garden will have to supplement local agriculture. Much of the suburbs will simply be abandoned to scrap and returned to the fields that existed before they were built.

 

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Sure I do, but Reserves continue to grow, not decline.
You are the one who is out of touch with the amount of energy available to us.

OIL

Code:

Year	Reserves	Used
1980	644 <== Billion Barrels of Reserves in 1980	
1990	1,002	225 <== Billion Barrels used since 1980
2000	1,016	256 <== Billion Barrels used since 1990
2009	1,342	300 <== Billion Barrels used since 2000

Total Used since 1980 = 781 Billion barrels (140 Billion more than our estimated reserves in 1980)

Reserve growth even after using 781 Billion Barrels was 698 Billion Barrels.

Natural Gas

Code:

Year	Reserves	Used
1980	73 <== Trillion m^3 reserves in 1980	
1990	114	17 <== Trillion m^3 used since 1980
2000	147	23 <== Trillion m^3 used since 1990
2010	190	30 <== Trillion m^3 used since 2000

Total Used since 1980 = 70 Trillion m^3, or essentially all of what we had in reserves in 1980, yet today's reserves are nearly 3 times what they were back then.

Coal

The estimate for the world's total recoverable reserves of coal as of January 1, 2009 was 948 billion short tons, or well over a century at current usage rates, but if you double the price you are willing to pay, the amount of coal goes up significantly.

The ABOVE is why the IPCC is concerned.
Because we have so much oil, natural gas and coal left.

Just look at the energy conusmption that underlies the CO2 projections that are generated from the A1F1 and A2 scenarios. Indeed, most people who express concern about AGW temps almost always refer to the temp projections from the HOT models that are run on those fossil fuel intensive energy use scenarios. (personally I think we will actually be between the B1 and B2 scenarios, but the scenarios are in major need of an update as none are tracking reality)

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In any case, when you add to those reserves our growing use of Nuclear, Hydro, Wind, Solar Thermal, Solar PV, GeoThermal and BioMass there isn't, and won't be, any shortage of energy in our future.

Which is why your belief that we are heading back to an agricultural based society is just bonkers.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_proven_reserves
http://www.eia.gov/emeu/iea/Notes for Table E_3.html
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves

 

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The reason for denial has to do with the game that is being played. Even if it is true that the global temperature is rising slightly, any extrapolation of this fact, beyond that fact, is not automatically proven.

For example, all the doom and gloom predictions due to manmade, do not necessarily follow, even if the initial premise is true. The denialists try to nip the game in the bud, by attacking the initial premise, that is being used to make up extrapolations, that are there for social manipulations. The idea is to scare people into irrationality so they buy it all. They also will offer goods and services to appease the fear they are trying to create.

Here is how the game is played. If you eat cheese you will get fat. We noticed Joe likes cheese and has gained 2 pounds. Based on that "truth", we then say when you get fat you will increase the risk of diebetes, you will fall through the floor, your heart will explode, etc. It was only 2 pounds but the hype creates a sense of extrpaolated urgency out of touch with reality, that is being used to manipulate. We offer spa services.

The denialists will say 2 pounds is nothing and you are overblowing this with unproven hype. The fear factor will say, you deny that overweight can lead to diebetes? There is a game that you need to overcome, by staying the course, so the extrapolation can will not overgrow.

 

Hmmm. I thought it was played this way. We measure the temperature of the earth the data shows that the average temperature has risen. The deniers say it hasn't risen. They are wrong.

If you want to say that it is not caused by man - you can make a case for that.
If you want to say that the temperature will not continue to rise - you can make a case for that.

The consensus on global warming of the climatologist is that it IS man made and that IT will continue to rise. They could be wrong so feel free put forth alternative scenarios.

Saying that global warming does not exist is wrong and stupid - end of story.

 

Unfortunately there are morons out there who still believe the world is flat.

But one can be a skeptic (Denier is prejudicial) and still be quite up to speed on the science.

As to the instrumental record, there was some legitimate concern about the quality of our land temperature measurements.

And many of those concerns were generally valid, particulary the ones concerning Urban Heat Islands and changes in how sea surface temps were determined (for instance the switch to engine inlet temps vs the bucket method caused an artificial increase until it was adjusted for) and these resulted in the instrumental record being adjusted downward (for instance one of the downward adjustments made 1934 again the hottest year in the US).

Now Hansen at GISS uses station history and amount of lights as seen from satellites to adjust the temperature of Urban sites downward to remove the UHI effect, Phil Jones at Hadley has his own method, both give reasonably the same result.

Still the amount of downward adjustments from station/measuring errors wasn't as much as many skeptics thought it would be, and a very recent detailed study of the instrumental record has shown that the record, as adjusted, is reasonable and in pretty good agreement with the growing satellite record (available only since 1979).

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But that issue has been mainly dealt with over the last decade and rational skeptics no longer have much issue with the instrumental record (though I prefer Hadley's data set since unlike Hadley, GISS still extrapolates temperatures out as far as 1,200 km from a reporting station) isn't the main issue that has AGW skeptics still skeptical.

There are maybe about 3 main skeptical issues remaining, and none of them have to do with the instrumental temperature record.

THIS is one of the issues:

The projected range of future temperatures are derived from Global Climate Models running with energy, GHG and land use change inputs based on multiple IPCC Scenarios.

Altogether 40 SRES scenarios have been developed and the issue that has the skeptics complaining the loudest is that the IPCC claims that they are all equally valid with no assigned probabilities of occurrence.

Really?

Yes, really.

Then there are multiple models and they run from HOT to COLD.

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http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig9-3.htm

This is from the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and it shows the differences of the models, based only on CO2 input with it rising 1% per year.

HOT models are the ones that are more sensitive to the effects of CO2 and also add in a higher COUPLING based on increased H2O in the atmosphere (that latter aspect is another major skeptic concern as it remains unproven).

Note that in this test there is a significant difference between the hottest model and the mean, roughly 100% hotter.

But that was with just 1% per year rise in CO2.

The input to the models is based on IPCC developed Scenarios and some of the scenarios increase CO2 beyond that and also pump up the CH4, yielding much higher rises in temperatures.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf

These scenarios present a wildly different view of the future, but it is important to realize that ALL of them present a vastly more affluent future than today.

Really?

A GDP 26 times greater than today????

Are you kidding me?

And that's in the A1F1 scenario that only has 7 Billion people in 2100, but still is using 8 times as much energy as we did in 1990 and getting 40% of that energy from Coal.

But why then would anyone care about global warming, if the scenario says that WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF GLOBAL WARMING, the average wealth of everyone on the planet will be FAR FAR higher then it is today?

What is so bizarre is that the fear that we will ruin the earth is based on the notion that we will do so at the same time we will also be incredibly prosperous.

So yeah, I'm very skeptical of the A1F1 Scenario (and quite a few of the others as well) and it's use in projecting the future because I find it totally implausible.

But that's the scenario that when coupled with the HOT GCM models, that generates the highest projected temperature increases (mainly because it couples widespread deforestation with a 200% use of energy increase by 2020 and a 450% increase by 2050 (mostly from coal use)).

What happens then is that these upper temperature projections created by these Hot models running with year on year massive increases in energy use are then used by other non-climate scientists in other fields to project what will happen in their area of expertise if the temps projected by these totally bogus scenarios comes true.

Then of course they show the likely negative interaction of these changes, which is why we keep seeing these projections of a very BLEAK future even though the projections are based on us producing 2,600% more GDP than we do today, which with roughly the same population as today, means we will actually all be living a FAR more prosperous life than we are today.

I'm not sure if I should be happy or sad about that.

In any case, the issue that most science based skeptics focus on is the projections of the future and what they are based on.
Not so much about the past (well except for disagreements about how warm it was in the past, as in the magnitude and global extent of the MWP, and that issue is still not well settled)

Arthur

 

It doesn't matter if it's proven. You can still make predictions from the data, and it doesn't look good. What if they are underestimating the effects of warming? Did you know there are currently plumes of methane escaping from the shallow arctic seas at a scale that is unprecedented? Kilometers wide.

 

One aspect that's missing here is the relationship between attitudes towards climate change (and policies related to such), and the general state of the economy. I.e., the same polls showing that 52% of Americans do not believe in anthropogenic global warming, were showing just the opposite a few years ago when the economy was doing better, unemployment was low, etc. Likewise with the question of how urgent the problem is - going into the end of the Bush years, it was widely understood that the electorate wanted to take serious steps and saw it as a big priority, and that the next administration would move on that. But come 2009, the economy was in the tank and that quickly pushed climate change off of the agenda. It becomes very hard to sell people on the idea that we need to undertake costly steps at a time when they are hurting, and are much more interested in growth in the short term than in long-term issues like climate change.

Upshot is that I'd be sure to average such opinion poll results over at least one business cycle. Polls taken during downturns are going to understate support for efforts to combat global warming, and vice-versa.

This also points out a major facet driving opinions about the subject - it's seen as intimately linked with the economy, and industrialism generally. So, to deny climate change ends up being equivalent to advocating for higher growth, lower taxes, etc. Shouldn't be difficult to see why lots of politicians (and others) line up for such denial, then, especially when the economy isn't doing well. Probably the single most important thing for advocates of combatting climate change need to do, is to break that equivalence. This is, for example, why Thomas Friedman over at the NYT has been pushing a "green jobs" line of argument for some years now.

 

And it's that tradeoff that makes it increasingly unlikely to be achieved in a capitalist system.

 

The global warming makes use of the same dynamics as a paranoid military mentality. There is risk all over the world, which justifies control and expense to appease the fear that is created by stating the risk. Whether all the paranoia is true or not is not relevant to those who believe. in this fear. Fear is an easy way to manipulate, with the fear providing its own justification out of proportion with calm reality.

My resistance to global warming is by accepting the paranoia we also will institute another block of irrationality that will hog resources to appease the fear they they help to create for themselves. Military is very ancient and quite expensive. It is part off hum a nature. We don't need two of these. Let us keep the paranoia at the rational level, so we can address real concerns. Don't use the paranoia to manipulate for control and kickbacks.

Consider the concept of risk. this concept implies something in the future that is real even in cases where it will turn out not to be real. If we begin by assigning me a risk of something, and after a given amount of time nothing happens, there was never any real risk in reality for me, since it never panned out. All the fear was made up in my mind so I could be herded and sheared.

Yet , even without any connection to tangible reality, I will still be given a positive value of risk. It is magic math used to create the illusion of something even if it does not appear in reality. It is herd lumping that may not apply to individuals. The bogey man is hiding in the shadows, so even if he does not come out of the closet, he is still there.I don't like this fear manipulation game. My resistance to global warming is my lack of interest ini the bogey man game.

One way to balance this out is accountability. If you predict the bogey man and he does not appear, this who benefit by the game, now have to pay. The gamers will not like a level playing field but prefer stacking the deck with fear.

 

Nowhere near 90% of the Washington DC workers work in the information business and can work at home.

The town if full of tourists and visitors every day and there are huge number of workers to cater to them.

Besides that, there are so many other occupations that are necessary and simply don't lend themselves to working at home:

Nurses
Doctors
Dentists
Therapists
Veternarians
Pharmacists
Opthomologists
Hospital workers
Grocery workers
Delivery/Postal workers
Airport/Airline workers
Parks and Recreation workers
DMV workers
Museum/Library workers
Hotel workers
Jail/Prison workers
Manufacturing
Recycle center workers
Entertainers
Military
Bus Drivers
Cab Drivers
TV/Radio production
Newspaper production/reporters
Police
Fireman
Plumbers
Electricians
Locksmiths
Car Washes
Florists
Trash pick up/janitors/home cleaning
Painters
Roofers
Stonemasons
HVAC/heating repairman
Church workers Priests, Nuns, pastors etc
Gas Station attendents
Automotive repairman
Emissions/safety inspection
Mortuary workers
Tree and Lawn service
Street/Bridge Maint
Electric Company
Goodwill and Trift type shops
Gas Company
Water Company
Lineman
Construction Workers
Cooks & Waiters
Hair/feet/nail/tanning care
Health Club workers/trainers
Movie Theaters
Clothing stores owners and sales clerks
Drug stores
Hardware stores
Furniture stores
Electronics stores
Music/movies/game stores
Jewelry stores
Gun shops
Liquor Stores
Hobby stores
Retail Mall workers
Automobile sales
Motorcycle sales/repair
Party stores
Bakeries
Pawn Shops
Recreation/Sporting goods

etc etc etc

You continually over estimate the percent of people who don't have to go to a workplace.

And NO, it's not primarily because managers have to see them at work.

Of course the data came from the automotive industry, because they are production statistics, so no, those aren't extrapolations.
Those are what has happened.
Which means that during the last decade, the production of cars went up by 20 million per YEAR.

That trend isn't going to change any time soon.

I am with the program, dude.
I work out of my home.
I've been doing it for almost 2 decades.
Doesn't mean I don't need a car.

 

But the issue I brought up was that the A1F1 scenario claimed that while global population would be the same as today in 2100 that our GDP would go up 2600% and that global fossil fuel energy use would be 300% greater than it is today.

You apparently have no problem with a GDP 26 times the size it is today (Highly unlikely in just 90 years, more reasonable predictions put it at around 10 times greater than today) but then you keep insisting that energy use will still go down.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/S3QSFzD8FLI/AAAAAAAAMuw/P6NWF_bXLFI/s1600-h/worldgdp3.jpg

(shows a doubling of GDP in about 30 years)

So if you presume that the energy use would go down then that would mean you don't agree with the A1F1 scenario either, and so that would make you a "denialist" as well.

 

Nope.

The OPPOSITE is true.

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For the last 400k years or so, we slowly cool off but we typically warm up on a much shorter time interval.

 

Nope.

About 40x

And of course that's a period of 300 years, not 100 and you are talking about just the Western world and the impact of both the industrial revolution and the information revolution.

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/2000/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html

A1F1 says the per-capita GDP of the entire WORLD, which it estimates as the same as it is today, ~7 billion, will be 26 times what it is today, 90 years from now.

And YES it is highly unlikely, that's why most of the scenarios have much more reasonable estimates of 10 times the GDP by 2100, even the scenarios with up to 15 Billion people, but even those estimates are of a MUCH more affluent world at the end of this century than we are today.

Indeed ALL the scenarios predict that we will be very well off at the end of this century.

 

Bingo! And that doesn't mean that I agree with your conclusions, but rather your admission of the motivational beliefs behind the biggest AGW proponents. Socialism failed in any practical sense, but now perhaps we could give it a "moral victory" by saving us from DEATH!

This fucking article, donning the Armor of Science and speaking the Word of Truth, uses the following phrases in the first paragraph:

OK, first of all none of my emboldened words belong in a paper claiming to be serving facts. They're quite subjective and largely meaningless. Let me rewrite that first sentence and see if the author still finds it compelling:

Screw the polar bears, I'm talking about Fire and Brimstone filling your nostrils! Clearly for your own good you must submit to my dictums. Because, ya know, I'm just looking out for you and I care.

And..."The wellbeing of Earth"? Bwhaha!

So apparently two studies sent out surveys that read

Do you accept and understand the reality of the DISASTROUS, humanly-caused global warming via the greenhouse gas hypothesis?
[ ] YES
[ ] NO​

...and 97% of scientists surveyed said yes! My god, we're really screwed!! Or...is it possible that 97% of scientists surveyed personally felt that the greenhouse gas hypothesis was reasonable, but didn't necessarily attach words like IMMEDIATE RADICAL CURBING NECESSARY TO AVOID DISASTER AND DEATH TO ALL!

The author's panicked tone undermines the article's intent, which is to sway based upon reason...presumably.

 

And here we see one of the primary motivation behind the deniers - fear. Fear of socialism, of Al Gore, of science "winning" over religion, of "letting the other guys win." Unscrupulous political types use that fear to manipulate ignorant people, to try to frame it as a political battle that will result in everyone freezing in the dark while communist music plays in the background if the battle is lost.

And, as posts like this demonstrate - often, it works.

 

Can you (or someone) find these two reported studies:

 

Clearly, we both know AGW is almost purely political in nature, and your mockery of the Socialist Bogeyman doesn't somehow defuse its threat, nor does it make the "IMPENDING CLIMATE DOOM RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER!!" any less of a fantasy. Christ, my father was having these discussions with people over The Silent Spring back in the 1970's! Population explosion, gas shortages, food shortages, global cooling...they all coincidentally seem to have the same solutions. It's almost uncanny isn't it?

Yes, I'll use fear against Socialism to defuse AGW over-reaction. I'll also hold my nose and embrace the anti-science Religious Zealots if I must. The difference is that I'm OPEN about my motives, while the mealy-mouthed, sackless Environmentalists only very rarely let their true motivations slip past their tongues.

 

How can climate change denialism be explained? Seems to me the horse is really behind the cart on this question. When did whoever decide that climate change was fully explained? In the 1970's, we were warned of the coming Ice Age. Did whoever, ever find out "How can Ice Age denialism be explained?". Have humans ever been proven to be the cause of the last Ice Age? Were humans proven to be the cause of the 'Melting" of said Ice Age? Will it really matter what the temperature is if there is no clean water? Will a 5% or 10% or even a 50% rise or fall in carbon dioxide levels matter if we humans kill ourselves off by any of the numerous other Genies we constantly gamble on letting out of the bottle? The Earth has never had a "Static" climate and I do not believe that humans will ever be able to change that in the slightest! We are indeed a "Transient" life form on this planet. Heck, as far as I know, the dinosaurs never drove SUV's or built coal fired power plants and where are they now? The earth was here billions of years before us and barring some galactic intervention humans have absolutely no control over,will be here billions of years after humans are gone! Realize, if you will though - that these are only the ramblings of the dumbest man on earth - and that the really smart people will figure it all out for you and legislate the problem away regardless of all the "denialism" !!!