On Trial For Manslaughter For Failing to Predict Earthquake

The committee's deputy chair, Franco Barberi, is reported to have concluded (according to minutes of the meeting) that: "…There is no reason to suggest that the sequence of low-magnitude tremors are a precursor to a major event". INGV President Enzo Boschi described a large quake as "improbable, although not impossible". Professor Claudio Eva (as seismologist from Genoa University) said there was "a very low likelihood" of a major disturbance – though he too emphasised that a major earthquake could never be ruled out entirely.

L'Aquila’s Mayor, Massimo Cialente, was frustrated by his inability to extract a more definite reply to his questions. "I remember the words of Enzo Boschi who said, 'What do you expect? An earthquake in L'Aquila is bound to happen at some point'" says Cialente, who also told reporters that he was “angered and worried” by the scientists’ response.
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Source

 

Speaking of inane - neither Barberi, nor de Bernadinis - the two that, as I am given to understand, faced the media during the conference, are seismologists, one is a Vulcanologist, the other is a fluid dynamicist. Perhaps if they had stuck to their repsective fields and let someone who knew what they were talking about do the talking, there would have been a different outcome.

 

Soucre
Does anybody else find the two underlined statements contradictory?

 

There are actually two trials at present. One criminal and one civil.

In Australia, as one example, there would be a commission and report investigating the Commission, possibly many inquiries, before any such charges would be made, if any are to be made.

Things are obviously different in Italy.

I will be honest. I went round in circles trying to determine how it got to this point and I have to admit, the more I have looked into it, the tidbits I have managed to find about the investigations into the events leading up to the quake and what happened afterwards, the more questions there are than answers.

For example, the seismologist at the meeting and in the week after saw no need to discount the comments made to the media. After the quake, before any such investigations started, the scientists on that committee were very quick to discount the comments made and stated fairly emphatically that it was wrong. Maybe the say the coming blood in the water and the sharks circling and they were trying distance themselves. No one really knows. But there are questions that do need to be answered.

One of the articles I had linked earlier involved one written by a volcanologist who was part of a risk assessment committee on Montserrat when the eruption there killed several people. I think he sums up this trial in a very good way and points that the media hype and the panic from the scientific community is misdirected and missplaced somewhat:

This is not a trial of earthquake-prediction science, as some seismologists seem to think. Rather, it is about possible negligence in the provision of hazard-assessment advice, for which there is little or no case law or precedent, unlike, say, professional liability in civil engineering or medicine.​

What it comes down to is whether scientists involved in risk assessment could or should be held criminally liable, even for things like earthquakes. Or should they be protected.

One of the biggest arguments about this is that they never made the comments. The counter to that is that as experts, who later commented that the comments made to the media at that conference were wrong and factually incorrect, knew they had been made and at the time made no move to correct those incorrect comments. Information was withheld and not passed on. No discussion during a risk assessment meeting about the risks to the region. This is not speculation or guesses. This is what the scientists have acknowledged and admitted themselves. Trying to pass the buck is not a correct answer.

As simplistic as it sounds, it is the clearest analogy. But in the US, it has not gone to trial. Hence why this case is so interesting because it is holding scientists involved in such assessments accountable to the public and the law for their comments and possibly their findings.

As you know, I was involved in a shocking storm situation which ended with us losing just about everything in a mudslide. The afternoon that storm hit with its surprising downburst in the area we lived, we knew there would be storms that afternoon. We get storm warnings and on days like that day, hot and very humid, we do check the online weather site to see what if anything is heading our way. That afternoon was no different and as I heard the rumbling of thunder in the distance, I went outside and brought in the washing and I could see it approaching. What happened afterwards and 3 days later shows that true predictions cannot be made. But in the past, there had been issues of incorrect warnings or inefficient warnings. The result of that is they cover all bases and allow the public to make their own assessment and decisions on what we can see and what they offer us. The people of L'Aquila were never given those options. And that is the issue.

Certainly. Now imagine Mt. Rainier starts to rumble and vent ash into the air and experts are brought in to assess the risk to residents in the area if it does erupt. And they do not discuss the risks and educate people on what to do, they just turn around and say 'meh, it won't erupt, go home and relax!'.. So people go home. The tremors get worse, rocks start blowing out of the top and they remain reassured that the experts told them it won't explode. In the meantime they know nothing about what to do in the event of an eruption, have not planned any escape routes. The volcano erupts and hundreds die because the experts brought in to educate them and tell them what they should do in the event of an eruption told them to go home and have some wine. You're telling me, that would be okay?

So you know it could go either way. Which is why the residents of that region were getting very concerned and many had taken to camping outdoors, just in case. To calm the fear, the committee decided to hold its meetings in L'Aquila (outside of the norm) and do it in public (well outside of normal). So in waltz the experts and instead of telling them the risks and how to handle it, they were told there would be no quake. And then told to go home and relax and told explicitly that each time there was a tremor, it meant it reduced the chance of a quake. They were not told that it could go either way. They were literally told to go home and relax as the tremors would mean no quake. So many of them went home. And many of them died.

I guess it may not ring true to you that they actually believed the experts brought in to speak to them. But the fact that instead of camping out of doors like they normally would have, they were indoors. Survivors stated that they were told there would be no quake and so remained at home.. It doesn't have to ring true. The fact that 309 people died shows it. This wasn't a set up to get the scientists. There is no conspiracy.

One of the main things that stood out was that there, they actually parked their cars outside to provide for a safe getaway and yes, camped out in the fields and many of them were out in the fields. The older people who had gone through it all before were not at home. They were camping outside and remained safe. One of the prevailing things that stood out was how the people said they would have normally camped outdoors, just in case but had returned home because of the assurances.

You also cannot compare a residential American area and city to rural communities and towns in Italy.

The usual thing there is to be safer outdoors, away from the powerpoles and the buildings. But they were told it was safe to return indoors while one of them knew hundreds of those buildings would not be safe and he did not speak out.

No, nothing sounds right. To me it doesn't sound right that experts withhold information from the public which they knew could pose a risk to said public. But here we are.

Nothing fits together because of how the general media have been trying to portray it. But step away from the sensationalised 'they are trying scientists for not predicting an earthquake' and look at it properly:

This is not a trial of earthquake-prediction science, as some seismologists seem to think. Rather, it is about possible negligence in the provision of hazard-assessment advice, for which there is little or no case law or precedent, unlike, say, professional liability in civil engineering or medicine.​

Then it might make a bit more sense.

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:m:​

 

Barberi is actually a geophysicist. I guess he would have no idea what he was talking about, which is why he was on that committee and sent to L'Aquila...?

Yes? No?

 

You think that perhaps a Vulcanoligist can not be a Geophysicist, or vice versa?

The point is that neither a Vulcanoligist nor a Geophysicist are neccessarily seismologists.

 

As to this:

Note that this was published on April 16, 2009.
1999 il Dossier di Franco Barberi

Perhaps someone familiar with Italian can provide a more accurate translation:

So... Not only had Franco Barberi compiled a list of buildings in Abruzzo that would be damaged or destroyed in an earthquake, and not only was that information publicaly available, but the Abruzzo regional authorities had compiled their own list which was completed in 2007 - two whole years before the earthquake.

No wonder the mayor was so keen to see the trial go ahead, it redirects the attention away from the fact that the had forknowledge and did nothing with it.

 

More on this:

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Gosh.

I sure hope my groundwater contamination hazard modelling is correct, I'd hate to think that someone might decide to sue me on the grounds that I was negligent in the provision of my advice, because based on what someone else said, claiming that it was representative of what I had told them, they contracted Hep C and subsequently developed liver cancer.

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Apparently the Judge also does not know what he's talking about - at least according to some of the comments that have been directed at me:
The judge reportedly said the defendants ”gave inexact, incomplete and contradictory information” about whether smaller tremors felt in L’Aquila in the six months before the April quake should have constituted grounds for a warning.

After all, unless the seismologists stated before the earthquake that the risk of a large earthquake could not be ruled out, how can they be accused of giving contradictory information?

 

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Once again you demonstrate that you haven't understood what I have actually said.

 

Because God forbid you would ever be held responsible for your words or actions.

:shrug:

One can only hope you are never involved in risk assessment that could involve public safety where you could reasonably be held accountable for how you communicate and for what you communicate and fail to communicate. Because we have come to the point where 'I is a sceintist!' does not amount to an excuse anymore.

To remind you of why and how this case came about:

"Nobody here wants to put science in the dock," he says. "We all know that the earthquake could not be predicted, and that evacuation was not an option. All we wanted was clearer information on risks in order to make our choices".​

The people tasked with giving that information failed to do so and at times, contradicted themselves and failed in their task.

What is on trial is risk communication, and the entire committee deserves some blame. The comments by Dr. De Bernardinis, government official and chair of the earthquake committee but an expert in floods, that there was “No danger” and that “the situation looks favourable”, were patently thoughtless. Some of the other defendants are hinting that Dr. De Bernardinis overstated their cautious consensus in order to calm the public down after those previous false alarms, possibly under orders from higher up in government (this being ‘there’s a conspiracy behind everything’ Italy). Easy for them to say now. None of the others, experts in seismology, participated in the post-meeting news conference.

Everyone on that committee failed the public. They all failed to provide information that would help people make healthy judgments about their safety. They apparently never even considered that critical aspect of their responsibility. There was no one with risk communication expertise at the table during the meeting, and the experts skipped the post-meeting new conference. They thought about the risk through their narrow expertise as scientists, and either out of ignorance, or hubris - probably both - thought that was enough. They aren’t on trial for failing as risk scientists. They are on trial for failing as risk communicators.​

I guess 'I is a sceintist' just doesn't wash anymore..

To you, the chair of the committee apparently did not have the authority to speak at that conference. There will come a point where the excuses will run out and yes, hiding behind being a scientist as though they have no responsibility. The other scientists who were at the press conference did not correct his comments or give their opinion, which would have been more correct. I'd suggest you listen to the whole interview. It was quite enlightening.