Clever Car -- the future of automobiles

Just think, if everyone drove cars like the Aptera Type-1, total energy consumption in transportation would drop to one-fifth of current levels. The remaining 20 percent would be supplied mostly by ultra-high efficiency centralized electric power generation. And a small amount could come from whatever fuel runs the ultra-high efficiency onboard generator, whether gas/diesel, ethanol, methanol, compressed natural gas, propane, or even (smirk) hydrogen. We'd have choices again.

 

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I think there is another "car thread" but could not find it, so posting here something that may already be there (or elsewhere). China's electric-hybrid to be cheaper than Toyota's Prius (US $22,000 vs. $37,938 and probably will get a subsidy from Chinese government when sold to Chinese under the polution reduction program and/or as reduces oil imports.) Some technical details:

"... BYD's F3DM model operates in either full electric or gas-electric modes, and contains an electric battery that can be charged at a regular plug or at a recharging station. It can travel up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) solely on battery power, and contains a back-up gas engine, BYD said on Monday. Drivers alternate between the two power modes by flipping a switch: the electric mode is optimal for city driving, as gas engines are more wasteful under constant acceleration and deceleration, and the gas-electric mode is more appropriate for travel on highways and outside of cities. The battery takes up to seven hours to charge with a regular plug, and up to 15 minutes to be 80.0% charged at a special recharging station. ..."


FROM: http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/15/by...5markets04.html?partner=globalnews_newsletter

BYD is for "Build Your Dream" and Warren Buffet owns about 10% of the company - Part of the "trickle down" that GWB's tax relief for the rich made in foreign investments.

Even $18,000 would be out of range for average Chinese, but many are "much more equal than others" in modern China. An interesting index of this was just released by Aéroports de Paris, owner of Charles de Gaulle & Orly airports: In the weeks before Chrismass, 46,423 Euros of French wine were sold to passenger returning to Peking, including some very expensive bottles, such as 1947 Bordeaux of Rochschild etc. Last year in the same period only 23,000€ were sold.

In China: The rich are getting richer and the poor are also. Domestic consumption has increase 22% compared to last year.

 

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what a Clever Car man, but it is too expensive vehicle for a cost of $13500 CAN... a rally dream car for some of us...

 

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"Ratan Tata, head of the Tata group, said that tough times in the world’s largest car market had convinced the group to start designing a version of the Nano for possible export to the US as early as 2011 or 2012."
{Billy T guess the US price will be ~$3000 in today's strong dollars, but by time you can buy one about $5000 IMHO with dollar weaker then.}

From Financial times of India and below from:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arlp4cnittkY

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"The Nano will sell for as little as 123,360 rupees ($2,432) in New Delhi for the basic model without reclining seats, air-conditioning or a radio.

"... One million of the aluminum-framed vehicle may be sold each year as families swap motorbikes for the four-door Nano, Ratan Tata said March 23. Sales of two-, three- and four-wheelers surged 59 percent in the past five years to 9.2 million units, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

“The present economic situation makes it somewhat more relevant, or more attractive, to the buying public,” Ratan Tata said. “We had thought that there could be demand in this country for about one million cars if full capacity were available and if demand continued.”

 

"...Nano minicar is seeing a surge in interest on its first day for bookings...sold more than 51,000 order forms for the world's cheapest car, according to the Economic Times. The Nano, priced starting at less than $2,500, is slated to be delivered this summer in phases to the first 100,000 customers chosen by lottery. Tata is planning to export the Nano to Europe and the United States over the next few years. ..." From: http://news.morningstar.com/newsnet...78E13E89-76C7-427F-A0F1-7BD3F4F72DC8_univ.xml

Note that to book a CHANCE TO PURCHASE, you pay up front large fraction of the price ( about half, as I recal) eventually you get a car of your money back. Some small new firm in Brazil is trying to buy and re-sell in Brazil at ~3 times the Indian price as that is still about half the price of the cheapest new car in Brazil.

Nano will sell every car it can make and rapidly expand production to be selling 5 million / year in a few years. It is in serious talks about building new plant in Brazil for the South American market. In a decade gas will be much more expensive because of the huge expansion of cars on road in China and India. Bolivia, owner of ~1/3 of world's Lithium deposit will be come rich, yet even a decade hence, electric cars will be at most a few percent of the fleet - far less than those running on Alcohol. - My predictions.

Ratan Tata knew what he was doing when he put his company into consideralble debt to buy England's major steel producer. - He will need that steel for the nano production in Brazil, which will supply Nanos to the US east coast, EU, Western Africa, and all of Latin America, probably in Tata's own ships (made from british steel). A decade hence, Brazil will export high value added nano cars and import low valued added English steel in ships well loaded both ways making round trips. - Things are changing! Detroit will be a ghost town and US will mainly export farm products. I think.

 

aint gonna happen,unless it passes US emissions and crash tests.,which are some of the most strict in the world.

 

“The global economic slowdown has crimped budgets in China too, mainland Chinese car buyers who used to favor {expensive}*foreign brands are more likely to buy Chinese, according to a survey from TNS Automotive China, part of custom research agency TNS. The survey showed that 44% of China's future car buyers who wanted to buy foreign brands instead plan to purchase Chinese makes.“
From: http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/22/ch...ing-luxury.html?partner=globalnews_newsletter More photos of foreign imports here also.

Here are some of their higher cost (cheap by US standards) choices:

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For status conscious Chinese, it is a clever name for top of the line. Pronounced Rich ee, I think.
"... Chery's new Riich brand aims to be the Cadillac of Chery--its top-of-the-line brand. The G6 sedan is meant to compete against the Audi A6, one of the most popular makes for Chinese government officials. The first Riich G6 rolled off Chery's assembly line Wednesday. .."{14 April 09, I think} Chery was at the Detroit auto show two years ago with a more modest / popular model, but they were not allowed on the main floor. It was kept in a hallway at the rear used for deliveries. Detroit was rightly scared even back then that it would soon be a ghost town and they did not even know about Tata's nice looking $2,500 car. (See photos of Tata's Nano a few posts back. In post 124, I had guessed it would sell for ~$3000 in the US, which exactly agrees with Kuguru's "add $500 to met US safety /crash tests" estimate.)

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{Priced at $22,000 dollars and} "unveiled earlier this year, battery maker Build Your Dream beat both the U.S. and the Japanese with its ambitious bid to unleash the world's first {and by far the cheapest} successful plug-in electric car, the F3DM. The company, led by Wang Chuanfu and backed by Warren Buffett, aims to double sales to 400,000 cars and unveil five new models all this year. ..." More on Buffet ~10% ownership of BYD motors at:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/15/byd-hybrid-car-markets-equity-cx_twdd_1215markets04.html
Including following performance specs:
“…BYD's F3DM model operates in either full electric or gas-electric modes, and contains an electric battery that can be charged at a regular plug or at a recharging station. It can travel up to 100 kilometers (62 miles) solely on battery power, and contains a back-up gas engine, BYD said on Monday. Drivers alternate between the two power modes by flipping a switch: the electric mode is optimal for city driving, as gas engines are more wasteful under constant acceleration and deceleration, and the gas-electric mode is more appropriate for travel on highways and outside of cities. The battery takes up to seven hours to {100%} charge with a regular plug, and up to 15 minutes to be 80.0% charged at a special recharging station. …” {I.e. the Li-ion battery can rapid charge, but your house wiring can not deliver power at that rate.} I predict the GM Volt will never sell even 3% as many as BYD will, in part as China has world's second largest deposit of Lithium, but more because S. Korea (where I think GM hopes to get batteries from needs China's Lithium) and as USA power declines, S. Korea will look more to China for protection and markets.

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"...This Great Wall Motor's CHC011 Sedan was one of 11 models introduced by Great Wall at the Shanghai show. Its looks are part sportscar, part rental car, but since it is a concept car, it is hard to know what the final version might look like. ..."

Geeky motors also has many at the Autoshow, but the only photo at the link looks just like a Rolls Royce Phantom.* There are however, two big difference between the two cars: "The Geely has just one, throne-like back seat for its passenger, who sits in a luxurious, latter-day, rickshaw" and it costs about ¼ as much as an English Rolls, but I do not have a hard price.

Note: above text in quotes is from the link, but Billy T has added some too.

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*In the People's Republic of China, some are much more equal than others.

Later by edit: Just learned that Chery has a plant in Uruguay, which is part of Mercosul (production can enter Brazil, & Argentina with little or no duty). It can produce 25,000 cars per year. Reason I learned is my 24Ap09 newspaper states that Chery will build new plant in Brazil to produce 150,000/ year at a cost of approximate $600,000 over the next two years. i.e. first cars produced in 2011. These "Brazilian Cherys" will be for both the local market and for export to US and EU - If all goes well, plant will be expanded significantly. It may not as I noted earier, Tata is thinking of a Brazilian plant to make the Nano for local and export markets.

 

Well it certainly is not Chrysler. Fiat is buying Opel, not Chrysler, which is now discussing with Obama's team how to go bankrupt. GM is closing 13 plants (more than half for the summer). I think by the fall they will not open as GM in the US will be bankrupt also. Perhaps Tata will buy some of these plants and make the Nano in the USA. Even if the higher labor costs drive price to $4000 each, they should sell well and greatly cut US need for imported oil. An unfortunate side effect would of course be that Ford goes bankrupt as well.

 

"...Tata Motors said it had received 203,000 advance orders for its tiny Nano car, all with big deposits. It will conduct a lottery to determine which customers will receive the vehicle first, as the firm can produce only 60,000 units a year until a new factory opens. ..."

From: http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13612092 (Third paragraph)

I think "big deposits" is upwards of $1,200, as I had read plan was for half to be the down payment, while many more were trying to buy than Tata could make.

 

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Easy to park in small spaces - I.e. head straight into the curb and open door - step onto the side walk. Very efficient. Seats three slim adults with ease and up to five* if children and one slim adult driver. Here we go: 50 years back to the future!

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"... The {new} Isetta will be hugely important, because it will help BMW comply with the European Commission’s plans to impose an average 120g/km limit on the model ranges of all firms selling cars across the Continent by 2012. And, as there are plans for an electric version, it would also enable the manufacturer to meet California’s upcoming zero-emissions vehicle legislation...."

From: http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/autoexpressnews/225675/the_100mpg_fuel_busters.html

"...A new version of the BMW Isetta is likely to be introduced in 2010 sharing a platform with the Fiat Topolino. The car is expected to achieve 100 mpg ..."

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isetta#New_Isetta_.282010_-_.29

The new BMW version is the BMW600 (presumably a 600 cc engine). The old was BMW 250 and later 300 with larger 298 cc engine. Between 1955 and 1962, 161,360 were made.
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*The two largest spread legs and two smallest sit between spread legs. In same way, two adults and two children fit on the single wide bench seat.

 

The world's largest auto market needs foreign help with the supply of parts:

"In late March, Geely bought Australian auto transmission supplier Drivetrain Systems International, which went bankrupt as its major clients, the U.S. automakers, floundered. Around the same time, Delphi, the bankrupt auto parts company that once belonged to General Motors ( GM - news - people ), sold its brakes-and-suspension business to BeijingWest Industries. ..."

From:http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/19/ta...s-equity-investment.html?partner=contextstory

Which is mainly an article about how Mainland China is having trouble buying up Taiwan auto parts suppliers as they are family owned still.

It is not just raw material, energy and food stocks, China is buying, instead of long term US Treasury promisses.
For more details on this Chinese investment shift see:

http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2257785&postcount=50 and post 49 preceeding.

 

Billy T, you are mixing private Chinese businesses with government reserves. Private businesses do not buy US Treasury debt, but other businesses that they hope will increase their profits and income. The dollar component of the governments foreign reserves are what the Chinese government uses to buy US dollar Treasuries.

 

I fully agree with your second sentence, and certainly the dollar component is dominate, (66%) in reserves but the state bank holding are not part of the official reserves, at least not legally, yet are invested in Treasuries also and the CIC (Chinese Investment Corporation or "sovern fund") is not part of the reservers but was funding by them so it is a little more confused picture than you paint.

I am not trying to argue as my main point, repeated in my post and elsewhere, is that China is scared of longer term Treasury bonds ALREADY and buying real assets, instead of Treasury bond promisses. ("Real assets" certainly includes foreign makers of transmissions and brakes for the Chinese made autos.)

I have now read:
http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/CGS_WorkingPaper_6_China_update0509.pdf
and they confirm this but I found some of the details "too much," however, you will like it. Their main point is that after Lehman and CIC's Blackstone adventure, all of Chinese government and its indirect agents like that state banks have turned very risk adverse (as did most every one). On page 19 and twice before in this careful study they confirmed what I had deduced mainly from the yield curve's recent dynamics. I still recall the page 19 fact it quotes: 1Q09 had China buying 122billion of Treasuries -ALL MOST ALL IN THE FORM OF T-BILLS! (Notes is about as far out as China will go now, very few bonds.)

SUMMARY: Because the government plays such a central role in the larger businesses, lending to them etc. it is not entrely wrong to mix things like China lending Petrobrass 10 billion (presumably from dollar reserves) and other loans to Chinese business from reserves, just be cause Pertobrass is a foreign not Chinese company. I think the majority of Chinese purchases of raw matrerials, minerals, energy and foods stocks are both financed by reserves and via companies, not directly by the government. I.e. often are reserves diverted form the Treasury purchase they would have made a year or more ago to real assets.

PS In the introduction I learned that the author's are working thru, if not employed by, the owner and publisher of Foreign Affairs.

 

This is the car for the near future, luxury version.

http://www.teslamotors.com/models/index.php

Think more like a civic or accord in upgrades, which is what they want to do next. Nobody wants to buy a crappy looking car.

Tesla came up with it, but I could easily see Toyota or other major company doing the same thing better at a lower price.

The point being. Simple, battery charged at night using central power systems like water, nuclear, solar, wind.

The battery tech is evolving by leaps and bounds, faster charging, longer draws, cheaper and lighter.

The electric engines are bullet proof, and almost zero maintenence for the car.

 

The $49,900 price assumes at least a $7,500 government kick back and it is not "world's first" with promised availablity only in "late 2011."

The BYD model has been selling in China* for about six months and cost only $22,000 or $14,500 if the the same $7,500 government kick back is assumed.
(LESS THAN 1/3 THE PRICE) See photo of the BYD car in post 128, the middle photo, but you cannot buy it in the USA, yet.

Also, I doubt the batteries are as good, or if they are also Li-ion, then I doubt the availability of more than a few cars / per month. Do you have any information on the batteries? Even from where they will come from? Teslamotors now available $102,000 priced "roadster" does use Li-ion batteries, but to replace them costs $12,000 or almost as much as the entire cost of the now available BYD car! Before calling it the car of the future, lets wait and see, if it is ever built, what it sells for.
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*2009 sales projected to be 400,000 cars.

 

Yes, Tesla is one of the innovators of bringing Li-Ion batteries to cars, they started with their roadster. The problem was that nobody was making large battery packs for cars, so they had to create their own. So for the all electric roadster, their first car, they used standard over the counter type batteries, packed like 7500 together in a completely cooled system. It propels the car from 0-60in less than 4 seconds ! one of the fastest 0-60 production cars in the world. Now I understand that isn't the main goal, but their battery packs are not the issue and fully charged can move the car from 150-250 miles depending on the type of driving.

Also, the second car, the one I linked is a 5 passenger car to compete with BMW and Mercedes and is also ALL ELECTRIC. Which is the key. The gasoline engine, no matter how small still puts in the maintenence requirements that are avoided with all electric. TESLA is shooting for all electric cars that people will want to buy and I think that is the right apporach.

The dilemma for them, is that as I said a major player like Toyota or even a massively financed company from China with major assembly lines could easily pump out something similar if they wanted to at a much lower price. Problem for us the consumer is they haven't yet.

There are pros and cons to any system. I believe in the long run all electrics will be the norm, because the price of the battery packs will come down a lot with mass production. The re-charge time will come down and the discharge capabilities will be improved. Something on the order of 7% per year. For sitting in traffic, the all electric is not burning gas will idling and there is 100%torque to the wheels instantly, no rpm build up to propel the car. So they are much more effecient for commuters.

Plus aside from price, I wouldn't want a newly built car from China without a long track history to look at. So not sure if there are any independent reviews of the car and it's reliability. That being said. I also wouldn't put down 50K for an all new electric without the same. I would be more likely to buy a Toyota or Honda all electric as I would suspect they would be more likely to be around in 10 years.

This is one of the reasons TESLA targeted wealthier clients to buy the roadster and the sedan to build capital and a history so that buyers in the 25-30k price range would be willing to take the risk. Maybe risky but maybe smart as well.

 

Billy-T,

I just wanted to say that when we compare the cars with LI-Ion packs, the new price factor is the battery pack not the engine. You may already realize this so pardon me if I am telling you something you already know.

The roadster can not be compared to the cars you mentioned or any other car except a few select companies that are creating something similar, which is a true sports car performance in an all electric. To do that they have to have a larger pack (increased cost) to be able to provide the power needed for the performance.

A commuter sedan doesn't need the same size pack to produce the same mileage range as long as you don't expect it to do 0-60 in under 4 seconds, which is ridiculously fast.

The packs as you pointed out are very expensive now, that cost will come down and the mileage range will improve. That is the trend and it is steady. Even since they started the roadster model the battery situation has improved for manufacturers.

So when we are talking about a hybrid that can offer 60 miles of commuter performance under all electric and a car that can deliver super 0-60 times and travel as much as 250 miles on all electric, the price is in the pack, plus the car is top notch in finishing details, like what you would expect in a car that price.

Ever see these vids of a proof of concept car, before the TESLA company even started racing gas powered cars.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqqtJpfZElQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8mDGnA2KAU&feature=related

The Tzero is what inspired the Tesla. Note AC propulsion systems are used by TESLA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKKwB9jH1jE&feature=related

 

I too think the electric car has a future (and a distant past

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) but batteries are the critical element, especially for US made electrics. The parent company of BYD car is, I think, the world's largest maker of Li-ion batteries for at least the last decade, but mainly made smaller energy storage size, like the one in my portable computer. (You say that Tesla's roadster has 7500 individual batteries - perhaps BYD made them? If you own any Li-ion batteries look and see where they were made. Chances are very high in China, Taiwan, Japan or S. Korea, all from Chinese lithium.)

China has the second largest known deposit of commercial concentration Lithium and the only one now with significant production, AFAIK. (Bolivia* has the largest known deposit but is years from any more than a few kilos per month production.) S. Korea is where GM volt was to get its Li-ion batteries, but they use Chinese Lithium. I seriously doubt that any will be available for either GM's volt or Tesla. (If I were China and trying to make 400,000 electric cars in 2009, I would see to that.) In GM’s case they will be bankrupt, and quite possible have moved even their HQ to China as that is now where the world’s greatest and most rapidly growing car market is. GM is a profitable concern in China – 1St or second behind VW in sales, I think.

All DC electric motors have great low speed torque compare to any IC engine. (Why trolleys use DC as they start and stop a lot and never travel fast, but DC electric can do that too.) If you know the mass of the car and the 0 to 60mph time required you can calculate the power level. Add ~10% for the loses and that sets one limit on the battery power output requirements. I am too lazy to do this and think it is not the important limit. I suspect that a “commercial range” sets the battery size requirement, not the desire to burn rubber leaving the traffic light.

With a large range (say more than the BYD's 100Km) you will be carrying the weight of more batteries all the time, for very seldom use. If you’re a pure electric car you may need to do this, but it adds to the cost and weight of the car. Even with huge battery pack you will still not be able to drive from DC to NYC, if pure electric, so I think the electric car with small IC engine (a hybrid) is much more commercial as it can go DC to NYC and yet have > 90% of its annual use with only electric power . Not that many will make that trip, but knowing that you cannot will hurt sales of the pure electric. In cities there will be rapid recharge locations (probably in many parking lots) as the BYD can charge to 80% of full capacity in 15 minutes (or less if not already fully discharged.) – I.e. in 5 or 10 minutes while you shop, you can “top off” the battery so your remaining range, even after all day of intermittent, pure-electric, urban use is still 80km!

Thus I think the BYD approach is much more commercial than Tesla’s as it has smaller battery cost and weight yet for most customers, in their routine urban use, it is just as efficient as only batteries are used.

SUMMARY: The batteries will make or break the electric car and China, the most advanced / experienced Li-ion battery maker, has US makers by the balls.
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*The president, Morales, hates the US (and not without reason). - He has expelled US diplomats etc. Bolivia is not interested in help from the US. He recently returned from France seeking help for a pilot plant study and has also asked Japan if they are interested. Chile has some Li production but it is not very significant, mainly for medical use, I think. I.e. high purity and high price as their Li salts are not as concentrated, again I think, but do not know.

 

Quite possibly. They used over the counter common li-ion batteries for cost savings because they could by in large quantities. However, they are constantly improving the batteries make up as you probably know. Toyota partnered with Panasonic and they are all trying to build car specific batteries now.

I agree with this statement, it's why the Prius has done so well. But I was looking at the near future not the now. I would definetly agree that the hybrid car is the here and now and all manufacturers seem to embrace that.

I was merely trying to point out the battery tech is moving so fast that we could find in 10-15 years the packs are much lighter, take us farther and re-charge way faster then they do now. I expect a steady set of leaps and bounds in the technology from here on. It will take a while. We have to have the infrastructure in place to re-charge packs or have quick swap outs etc.

I agree for now. Regardless of whether all electrics rule in the future, companies like BYD, Toyota, Kia and others will have the upper hand on Tesla. However, as far as number of cars and price, they always had the upper hand on Ferrari too, what Tesla did is unique and I believe the fore-front of where we want to be not where we are.

Precisely