N. Korea - Have the major players positioned themselves for inevitable war?

I can't agree that China wants a war.......yet.

China is on its way to becoming the lone superpower, and they will do this peacefully. They don't want a war to mess up there staggering growth.

In 100 years, China will be the worlds lone superpower, with India close behind then the US. You can hold back nations with such a population and that are modernising at the rate those two are.

Its inevitable, that is why the US is snuggeling up to China with trade and so forth, it will be there life blood in the future.

 

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I was kidding, btw

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Yes, I agree. Almost anyway. China's GDP is probably going to overtake America's in 10 or 15 years.

 

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Tactical Nukes

In regards to fighting a war in N.korea a major factor in the US favor is air power. 1 million troops big woop. B1's, B2's and B-52's non stop can sort out positions an an instant with the use of precision weapons. Air strikes can immediatly wipe out N.koreas ability to even funtion as a military by targeting key positions. And if the US was talking about a premptive tactical nuke strike in Iran not long ago, without them even testing a bomb, im sure there is no hesitation with N.korea, if it means keeping its close economical allies protected. Park to battle groups off the coast of N.korea and watch them shiver.

 

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Air power only gets you so far, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan have all proved that.
If air power did it alone, there would be no debate over what happens next, as the US would be dropping them.

You need troops on the ground, and in the case of Korea, hundreds of thousands of troops, and that's why the US wont go military on them.

 

In Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan we didn't use airpower to its fullest as that would kill too many noncombatants... a thought that would have been utterly alien in WW2. You only need ground troops if you want to take land. Not if you just want to break the enemy so badly it will be fifty years before they even look at you again.

 

Fair enough

However,

Afgan was only a lead up to Iraq. A petty war that led to the door step of saddam. If the US was really after Osama why did they send only 10,000 into Afgan and over 200,000 to Iraq?

Oil...

B2's flew 31 hour round trips to drop the first bombs on Iraq. Air power eliminated the once 4th biggest defence force in the worlds air force before they even got off the ground.

And this was before any ground offensive was launched.

As you said before, in Iraq we are fightiong against insurgents hiding with civilians with AK's and home made bombs.

Hardly a position to use the US air might effectivly when you are dealing with populated areas.

N.korea would be a military V military tactical war. N. Korea has one city, the rest is mainly baron. Air power would suit such an enviroment with no civilians around. Just N.korean troops trecking over the country side on there way to the south.

Tactical nukes a prime manor to deplete massive troop movements.

food for thought...

 

Its the media that ensures all air power will be used pin-pointedly.
This day and age, spare total war, you can't go carpet bombing like in WW2, and that would be the same in Korea.
If they used air power, would be in the same context as Iraq and so forth.

The media makes the military accountable for any non-comabatant deaths.

 

Yeah, and this is a serious strain on their effectiveness.
I wonder if north korea's media would have any say in how Kim Jong Il conducted himself in war?
Don't think so. And I don't think any kindergarten in any leafy suburb of middle america would be off limits.
I would like to think the military would start taking less notice of the media once things became seriously threatening to success.
Turning north korea into a vacant carpark hopefully ranks above surrendering to north korean rule, but it is a worry.

 

100 years before China is a superpower? I say 30, at most. The USA has 2 or 3 more decades of primacy left.

 

First of all without the media scrutiny of the military they would in sense be able to do whatever they wanted without any major repercussions. Your right North Korea's media wouldn't have any say in how Kim Jong Il conducted himself but that's only because the media is run by Kim Jong Il. Your right a kindergarten would probably be in the limits of Kim Jong Il however first of all he can't even imagine of reaching any 'suburb of middle America' in this stage of their missile program. Second of all this is the difference between us and Kim Jong Il, he would purposely and without any regret bomb civilian targets, however I like to think when we do it, it's a mistake that we do regret. Right now the North Korean threat is still in it's early stages and due to this they pose no real threat to us now and we need to act accordingly and open direct negotiations with North Korea therefore hopefully avoiding a major conflict.

 

That's right, they don't pose a credible threat to the US at the moment, but they do to S Korea and Japan, and the only reason Japan dosen't have a decent military of their own is because the US has a defence treaty with them.

If the US doesn't address this situation the right way and get the nukes out of his hands, Japan will start to build up its military and you couldn't blame them for it.

 

War isn't inevitable with NK and Condi Rice already announced that the US doesn't have any intention of going to war with them. The US will simply add more sanctions to what has already been implemented for the past 40 years. NK didn't decide to go ahead with their nuke program as an offensive gesture but a defensive one. Bush pushed them over the edge by naming them in the 'axis of evil' (afghanisatn, iraq, NK). Now if I were minding my own business and someone suddenly put me on their hit list I would prepare myself. The US generally only engages when the odds are in their favor and enaging in a war close to Chinese borders would be a definite no-no. Anyway the US is over-extended with its troops scattered around the globe fighting for (*cough*) peace, freedom and democracy.

 

Hi Lucy,

thank you for your post

sorry to be padantic but it was Iran in the axis of evil

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Take care
zak