View Full Version : belief=expectation


granpa
03-08-08, 12:58 PM
bayesian statistics:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability#Probabilities_of_probabilitie s

if someone pulls out a coin and asks me 'head or tails', even though i know nothing about that particular coin (it might be a two headed coin), i fully expect that if i predict head or tails at random then i have a 50% chance of winning. this is the expectation not the probability that the coin will land one way or the other. i dont know the probability for that particular coin. this is how fuzzy logic works.

belief (as opposed to knowledge) is similar. in fact a bayesian probability is sometimes called 'degree of belief'.

the point being that it is possible to have a belief about something that you know almost nothing about.

Search & Destroy
03-10-08, 11:27 PM
To perceive is to take finite data out of an infinite set

Eddy
03-11-08, 08:10 PM
it is possible to have a belief about something that you know almost nothing about.

So there really isn't any difference in the cosmology of science versus superstition. Whatever works for you.

cosmictraveler
03-11-08, 09:07 PM
the point being that it is possible to have a belief about something that you know almost nothing about.

Of course, many people understand very little about God but believe in it no matter what the facts are.

Eddy
03-11-08, 09:45 PM
Yes; attacking a vampire with a wooden steak or a cellulose burger the results could be the same.

Scientists have heap big magic none the less.