astroid threat raised

astroid dubbed 2004 MN4 has been given a higher rank on the torino scale in the past few days and give the odds of striking the earth to 1-40 chances in the year 2029.

the new ranking put it at a 4 on a scale of 0 - 10 the highest ranked astroid is now 2004 MN4 it is believed to be 1400 feet wide or in the range of 400 - 600 meters.

there are several recent articals about this on space.com

 

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sounds dangerous, how bad wolud the imapact be?

 

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Hum,
i guess that it would only be just over 1,600 megatons of energy.

75 million tonnes of rock falling onto land wouldn’t be as bad as say falling onto the sea and generating something similar to the recent tsunami.

(update on the 26th december - <b>1 in 37</b>)

 

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For those of you with a superstitious bent, impact date would be Friday 13 April.
2029 ==> 2+0+2+9=13

 

kinda odd huh, i doubt its a hoax its coming from Nasa JPL

 

There are a number of possible impact dates; its just that the 2029 has the highest probability of impact.
See here:
http://welcome.to/cnn.com/2004mn4.html

 

hum,
that link implies a 100% impact probability, on Manhattan, (lol) ...The Torino Scale should be 4 (as of 27th dec).

 

AAARRGGHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PANIC!!!

According to deathclock I'm gonna die tue 11th Dec 2061. Just in time to miss christmas. So I'm NOT gonna die in this asteroid impact.

 

Hum,
i made a webpage when it was first discovered...
check it out here :
http://www.geocities.com/douglasrana/2004mn4.htm

 

Nice page. I see you show the orbital data as based on 169 observations. (13^2)

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Hum,
Tnx, I’m still learning html...

>>orbital data
Yeah...been busy....

But the update is, that i don’t need to update it anymore - as the torino scale has been put back down to <b>zero</b> (for any impact solutions before 2037)

Sleep easy tonight...

 

Ok... I am creeped out. Presuming this thing hits land, how big a crater would this thing make? I am hoping to build my home on the shores of the resulting lake.

 

well they reduced it too zero but I seen it made it too 9 on the torino scale at one point on the 26th

 

good thing im such a small target

 

I, also, would like to know.

 

The general equation governing crater size is:

D=k.E^n

Where D= crater diameter, k is a constant, E is the energy of impact, and n is a dimensionless number.
[This site describes an experiment you can conduct to determine the values of k and n: http://helios.astro.lsa.umich.edu/Course/Labs/craters/cr_short.html]

The energy of the impact is given by
E=1/2.m.v^2
Where E=energy in joules, m=mass in kg, v = velocity in m/sec

[Because the orbit of 2004N4 is fairly well established we have a good fix on the velocity. The mass is more difficult to determine. It depends upon the average density and total volume. The 1600 megaton figure for impact energy quoted by Blobrana is based on a density of 2.6g/cc (which assumes a typical chondritic composition with little or no iron-nickel) and a diameter of about 400m. The latter is based on assumptions about the albedo - how much light is reflected by the object.)

This useful link contains Gene Shoemaker's version of the general equation:
http://www.madsci.org/posts/archives/oct98/907545968.As.r.html

The key equation becomes:
D = Sg Sp Kn W^(1/3.4)
Where Sg is a gravitational correction factor (1.0 for Earth impacts), and Sp is a density correction factor for the target material.

Plugging the values for 2004MN4 into the equation gives us a diameter of 4.6 kms, if I haven't dropped a decimal place. That should give Clockwood some nice lakefront.

 

Hehe,
Those crazy scientists from the University of Arizona have developed a handy calculator that you can use to determine your fate in the event of an asteroid impact.

It calculates the blast, depth of ejecta, and the force of the air blast at a distance from ground zero. Now you can see if you'll be safe from the devastation of an asteroid strike, or if you'll need to hop in your car and drive... faraway.

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects

(tip, try a speed of 12.59 km/s)

(yeah, it`s a `4km-plus` crater produced)

 

woah, thats my whole town gone

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Please don't flame me over this because it's a serious question, but does anyone else have concerns about whether or not they (the established governments and those in the know) would actually tell us if, in fact, this asteroid was on a collision course with Earth. From what I understand, this thing is approximately the size of 3 football fields and isn't that about the same size as the one that is suspected of killing off the dinosaurs? I'm not a paranoid type or a conspiracy theorist. In fact I can see why it would be in the best interest of people everywhere not to know something as catastrophic as this thing hitting our planet when nothing could be done to stop it. I imagine that the panic and chaos would topple governments and destroy life as we know it years before the actual event. I have always trusted the Scientific Community, and considered them, as a whole.to be the "School Teachers" to all of us working stiffs, so everything inside me wants to give a big sigh of relief...secure in the knowledge that humankind has dodged a very large bullet.

But i just can't seem to shake the feeling that even if it was going to hit, none of us would probably know about it till it happened.

 

Hi,
Well you have a correct gut feeling.
At a recent conference it was generally agreed that the `scientific community` would not tell us of an impending impact.
The simple reason, as you say, is to prevent panic, and national security…

But you don`t have to worry too much about this tiny asteroid...it`s the big ones we don`t know about, that you need to watch out for..(er, or 1950DA...)

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