Techne
10-06-08, 03:17 AM
Found this to be interesting.
The Simulation Argument (SA).
Paper by Nick Bostrom:
ARE YOU LIVING IN A COMPUTER SIMULATION? (http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html)
Abstract
This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.
The conclusion sounds fun.
Conclusion:
A technologically mature “posthuman” civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; (2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; (3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.
If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).
Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation.
Emphasis mine.
Also, a nice blog entry about the SA.
The dark side of the Simulation Argument (http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2007/08/dark-side-of-simulation-argument.html)
Something for laughs. (http://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/998.html)
The Simulation Argument FAQ (http://www.simulation-argument.com/faq.html)
Damned if it is true, damned if it is not :). Enjoy.
The Simulation Argument (SA).
Paper by Nick Bostrom:
ARE YOU LIVING IN A COMPUTER SIMULATION? (http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html)
Abstract
This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.
The conclusion sounds fun.
Conclusion:
A technologically mature “posthuman” civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; (2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; (3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.
If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).
Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation.
Emphasis mine.
Also, a nice blog entry about the SA.
The dark side of the Simulation Argument (http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2007/08/dark-side-of-simulation-argument.html)
Something for laughs. (http://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/998.html)
The Simulation Argument FAQ (http://www.simulation-argument.com/faq.html)
Damned if it is true, damned if it is not :). Enjoy.