View Full Version : Why do some believe Humanity will go extinct eventually?
Norsefire
06-21-08, 12:52 AM
There is a critical difference between Humanity and every other species that has vanished: we are the only ones that can know and take action. We can realize a threat before it occurs, and/or we can take action. Other species may have laid down and died, but intelligence is a saving grace for Humanity imo. This awareness of the situation leads me to believe Humanity should outlast the rest of Earth's natural life.
madanthonywayne
06-21-08, 12:57 AM
While what you say is true, and I hope you're correct, well, forever's a long time. If we can get off this one planet and spread out across the solar system and the stars we'd have a much better chance of surviving over the very long term. Right now, we've got all our eggs in one basket.
First problem is that we're nowhere close to being around as long as even some of our most recently-departed relatives. So we've got a long way to go to last longer than they did.
Second problem is that there are things we simply cannot prevent. If a star goes Supernova close enough to us, it would wipe us clean off the map and we couldn't prevent it. If an asteroid large enough was going to hit us, there's no amount of hiding we could do to stop it. WR104 is a Wolf-Rayet star that appears to be aimed right at us. When it goes nova, we're toast. And we'd have no warning, and no way of preventing it.
All of those things could happen tomorrow, for all we know. The best we can do is try to get a handle on the things we can do. But the fact is that chances are we eventually will go extinct. There are too many variables out there, too many things that would absolutely destroy us if we encountered them.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 03:23 AM
True, there are dangers. But I feel that with the exponential growth of Humanity, and the further development of technology, our race should be able to outlast every other. Currently the only true danger to us is, ourselves.
And by the time the sun expands into a red giant, we should be long gone from Earth. I believe that after we settle other worlds and systems, our species should have it perfect to last forever.
exponential growth of Humanity
Our nature allows for a incredible exponential growth that we 're unable to stop and that we sustain by our nature (we don't want 6 billion people we yust forever want 1 more) THis is somewhat compensated by developing new lands witch properly managed will cause serious strain on our surrounding enviroment witch will ultimatly lead to a collapse. Whill the alternative of improper managment like when agricultural grounds are being used to make fuel in stead of food it can lead to a food crisis and ultimatly situations like in sudan.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 03:40 AM
Our nature allows for a incredible exponential growth that we 're unable to stop and that we sustain by our nature (we don't want 6 billion people we yust forever want 1 more) THis is somewhat compensated by developing new lands witch properly managed will cause serious strain on our surrounding enviroment witch will ultimatly lead to a collapse. Whill the alternative of improper managment like when agricultural grounds are being used to make fuel in stead of food it can lead to a food crisis and ultimatly situations like in sudan.
Yes, but a problem like overpopulation would fix itself. Eventually, while we might have a crisis, we will stabilize at a certain number which we can provide for.
Besides, soon enough within the next few centuries we should begin colonizing other worlds, maybe even before 2100.
redarmy11
06-21-08, 03:52 AM
Yes, let's hope we don't get hit by a big asteroid before then.
Subtext: I hope to God we do..
Norsefire
06-21-08, 03:53 AM
Yes, let's hope we don't get hit by a big asteroid before then.
Subtext: I hope to God we do..
Why? We have been nothing but a blessing upon this Earth.
redarmy11
06-21-08, 03:59 AM
A mixed blessing at best. Besides, I'm just contrary.
Why? We have been nothing but a blessing upon this Earth.
Here's your opportunity to justify.
Currently the only true danger to us is, ourselves.
That's nowhere near true. There are plenty of very real dangers to our species.
And by the time the sun expands into a red giant, we should be long gone from Earth. I believe that after we settle other worlds and systems, our species should have it perfect to last forever.
I feel like I shouldn't be trying to debunk you, but the stuff you're proposing doesn't even make sense. Have it perfect to last forever? Dude...really?
Why? We have been nothing but a blessing upon this Earth.
Wow. OK, you know, I actually thought you were just being a dick when you said that gay marriage would bring an end to brotherhood and social interaction...but now I see you have totally got your head screwed on backwards.
We have done nothing to benefit this planet.
WR104 is a Wolf-Rayet star that appears to be aimed right at us. When it goes nova, we're toast. And we'd have no warning, and no way of preventing it.
Not quite. WR-104 is too far away to worry about that. What we have to worry about—if we absolutely must worry, is that we will be precisely in the path of an unadulterated, undiminished Gamma-ray burst. (See Bad Astronomy (http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2008/03/03/wr-104-a-nearby-gamma-ray-burst/))
Nonetheless, WR-104 does present us with a functional extinction scenario; a what-if that could (maybe) happen. So don't let me kill the party on that count.
There is a critical difference between Humanity and every other species that has vanished: we are the only ones that can know and take action. We can realize a threat before it occurs, and/or we can take action. Other species may have laid down and died, but intelligence is a saving grace for Humanity imo. This awareness of the situation leads me to believe Humanity should outlast the rest of Earth's natural life.
There are some things that we cannot escape, like the death of our sun. Eventually we will go extinct.
Like Madanthony said, spreading across the universe will greatly enhance our chances. But, eventually, we might not persist in our current form.
If we spread across the universe we will eventually most likely evolve into a different species.
I hope we don't make it however..
redarmy11
06-21-08, 06:57 AM
If we spread across the universe we will eventually most likely evolve into a different species.
Through intergalactic interbreeding?
Through intergalactic interbreeding?
No adaption to non-earth environments.
We also most likely have to maroon ourselves for centuries on spacecraft to get anywhere.
Some imbeciles have already suggested to genetically engineer people to be better equipped for living in space.
redarmy11
06-21-08, 07:05 AM
No adaption to non-earth environments.
Highly doubt this would lead to us evolving into an entirely new species. Of course, you haven't specified a time-span..
Highly doubt this would lead to us evolving into an entirely new species. Of course, you haven't specified a time-span..
lol ok.. I'm talking about HUGE time spans of course.
After all, we are talking about populating the universe..
redarmy11
06-21-08, 07:12 AM
In that case we can stay and evolve into a new species right here. (Assuming that we don't all get evaporated first). Which sort of makes your original point redundant. Was it just idle speculation?
In that case we can stay and evolve into a new species right here. (Assuming that we don't all get evaporated first). Which sort of makes your original point redundant. Was it just idle speculation?
I agree we will evolve here as well.
But I don't think we have is much time left here as we will have when we populate the universe.
Of course it was idle speculation :p
Humans need to go though.. and I don't mean populate the universe.
There is a critical difference between Humanity and every other species that has vanished: we are the only ones that can know and take action. We can realize a threat before it occurs, and/or we can take action. Other species may have laid down and died, but intelligence is a saving grace for Humanity imo. This awareness of the situation leads me to believe Humanity should outlast the rest of Earth's natural life.
What action would you take if you found out an asteroid was to hit the earth tomorrow?
What action would you take if you found out an asteroid was to hit the earth tomorrow?
Duck and cover !
cosmictraveler
06-21-08, 10:45 AM
Why do some believe Humanity will go extinct eventually?
Because what begins, ends and what ends, begins. It is all part of the great circle of life/death.
Pandaemoni
06-21-08, 11:17 AM
The universe can't sustain life indefinitely, as eventually every star will cease fusing its fuel and the universe will go dark and cold. In the Dark Era (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Freeze#The_Dark_Era.2C_from_10100_years_until_ 10150_years) everything in the universe, from mankind to supermassive black holes will have been converted into photons and leptons.
Besides, think of the math...suppose there is a 1 in 1 million chance of humanity going extinct in a given year. Assuming that, there is only a tiny statistical chance that we will survive 10 million years (and a 99.995% chance that we will be extinct by then). As long as the probability of extinction is greater than zero on any given time frame, then in the fullness of time, our extinction becomes a mathematical certainty.
The only thing that can save us is divine intervention.
The only thing that can save us is divine intervention.
No, God has already warned that there will be an end to it. :p
Like death, extinction is a certainty.
No, God has already warned that there will be an end to it. :p
Like death, extinction is a certainty.
Warned ? So what can we do ? Surely nothing..
Is he that sadistic ?
We use up everything. We use more energy and natural resources than any other specie, thats for sure. I mean jeez, all a dog wants to do is eat, take a dump somewhere, and move on.
We use up everything. We use more energy and natural resources than any other specie, thats for sure. I mean jeez, all a dog wants to do is eat, take a dump somewhere, and move on.
And even dogs are a drain.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 07:06 PM
Yes, I even said that eventually we will go extinct. But I think that will be when the universe begins to just run out of fuel, just go dark and dim and dead.
Because, in truth, conciousness and intelligence is more powerful than nature. Humanity's saving grace is that we can know, interpret, understand, and plan and take action. Nature is random. Other animals cannot.
With this, I believe that ultimately with greater scientific understanding, and our species spreading out, we should be able to last quite a long time.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 07:07 PM
The universe can't sustain life indefinitely, as eventually every star will cease fusing its fuel and the universe will go dark and cold. In the Dark Era (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Freeze#The_Dark_Era.2C_from_10100_years_until_ 10150_years) everything in the universe, from mankind to supermassive black holes will have been converted into photons and leptons.
Besides, think of the math...suppose there is a 1 in 1 million chance of humanity going extinct in a given year. Assuming that, there is only a tiny statistical chance that we will survive 10 million years (and a 99.995% chance that we will be extinct by then). As long as the probability of extinction is greater than zero on any given time frame, then in the fullness of time, our extinction becomes a mathematical certainty.
The only thing that can save us is divine intervention.
That math is incorrect. The chance would be 1/1million every year. It would not become 2/1million in the second year. It'd be a 1/1million chance EVERY year with exactly that chance (assuming we use it), not growing any larger.
What action would you take if you found out an asteroid was to hit the earth tomorrow?
nuclear ICBMS.
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 07:07 PM
There is a critical difference between Humanity and every other species that has vanished: we are the only ones that can know and take action. We can realize a threat before it occurs, and/or we can take action. Other species may have laid down and died, but intelligence is a saving grace for Humanity imo. This awareness of the situation leads me to believe Humanity should outlast the rest of Earth's natural life.
Right now there are people preparing to change our DNA. If this becomes popular at a certain point homo sapians will not be around precisely because it can know and take action.
Not quite. WR-104 is too far away to worry about that. What we have to worry about—if we absolutely must worry, is that we will be precisely in the path of an unadulterated, undiminished Gamma-ray burst.
I'm sorry, that's what I meant. I may have been wrong in presuming that the gamma-ray burst would occur when it went nova?
Because, in truth, conciousness and intelligence is more powerful than nature.
We have yet to see this be the case. Our primitive ancestors overcame bigger problems than we have faced.
I think our best hope for long-term survival is to be very, very lucky. No amount of planning is going to save us from an Earth-killing asteroid, or a gamma ray burst. And I highly doubt we'll be able to get far enough away from the sun to avoid its death. I mean, I suppose it's possible, but it's not very plausible. And if we were somehow able to climb aboard a ship headed to the nearest star, you'd then have to hope that nothing went wrong on the trip.
So like I said, there are too many variables to hope for a long-term future for any species, at least in the time frames you're speaking of.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 07:15 PM
Right now there are people preparing to change our DNA. If this becomes popular at a certain point homo sapians will not be around precisely because it can know and take action.
Not Homosapiens in general but our entire Human race, our species, regardles sof what it evolves into.
Our line of evolution included.
Not Homosapiens in general but our entire Human race, our species, regardles sof what it evolves into.
Our line of evolution included.
Even if we evolve into monkeys ?
Humans right now may be more closely related to monkeys then to genetically engineered persons.
Even if we evolve into frogs ?
if we evolve into frogs, we will not know of ourselves enough to change any major outcomes of future
if we evolve into frogs, we will not know of ourselves enough to change any major outcomes of future
I changed that :p
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 07:19 PM
Even if we evolve into frogs ? I wonder what percentage would choose to be frogs? Even if it's .000001 at the current 6 billion that's 6000 homo frogus.
http://static.zooomr.com/images/3015642_20153fc43b_o.jpg
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 07:22 PM
I changed that :p Too late. What if we evolve into the ultimate couch potatoes, brains in a vat, robots doing the work, and computers stimulating our pleasure centers all day long.
Actually I think this is already the case, it's just we aren't very good at it yet. I am not sure that qualifies as a species.
I wonder what percentage would choose to be frogs? Even if it's .000001 at the current 6 billion that's 6000 homo frogus.
lol :p
Too late. What if we evolve into the ultimate couch potatoes, brains in a vat, robots doing the work, and computers stimulating our pleasure centers all day long.
Actually I think this is already the case, it's just we aren't very good at it yet. I am not sure that qualifies as a species.
What scientific name would you give the couch potato humans ?
http://www.crestock.com/images/contest2007/4709-2-pejot-1.jpg
http://www.crestock.com/images/contest2007/4709-2-pejot-1.jpg
Where can I sign up ?
Where can I sign up ?
to sign up, you got to lick exactly 100 frogs in your local pond or elsewhere.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 07:30 PM
http://static.zooomr.com/images/3015642_20153fc43b_o.jpg
Please tell me this is fake........:puke:
The future evolution of Humanity is irrelevant. I didn't mean specifically Homosapiens when I said "our species"; I meant it and any future versions of it.
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 07:30 PM
Where can I sign up ? Remember the tadpole stage is very dangerous, but you do get to bottom hug and eat everything motile bigger than a micron.
Please tell me this is fake........:puke:
The future evolution of Humanity is irrelevant. I didn't mean specifically Homosapiens when I said "our species"; I meant it and any future versions of it.
Well I am a human and future of humans is more relevant to me.
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 07:31 PM
Please tell me this is fake........:puke:
The future evolution of Humanity is irrelevant. I didn't mean specifically Homosapiens when I said "our species"; I meant it and any future versions of it.
Of course this means that it is really the evolutionary line of some fish and so on backwards. I am not sure we can feel pride in this even if you are right.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 07:52 PM
Of course this means that it is really the evolutionary line of some fish and so on backwards. I am not sure we can feel pride in this even if you are right.
We'd maintain the identity of "Humanity" as well as our intelligence and conciousness of who we are and where we are going. Even if we do evolve into something different, we will still be Humans, still be sapient beings.
It would still be an evolutionary line of one true banner, Humanity. From austrolopythicis to Homosapien to Homocyborg or whatever it might be.
We'd maintain the identity of "Humanity" as well as our intelligence and conciousness of who we are and where we are going. Even if we do evolve into something different, we will still be Humans, still be sapient beings.
It would still be an evolutionary line of one true banner, Humanity. From austrolopythicis to Homosapien to Homocyborg or whatever it might be.
That's not true. If you want to worry about future mutations and evolutionary branches, then you must worry about everything related to us, such as all other primates. If you want to be specific about humanity, you have to understand that humanity ends once we evolve into something else.
Norsefire
06-21-08, 07:57 PM
That's not true. If you want to worry about future mutations and evolutionary branches, then you must worry about everything related to us, such as all other primates. If you want to be specific about humanity, you have to understand that humanity ends once we evolve into something else.
Technically, yes. But it's the same evolutionary line. We'd still be sentient beings.
Remember the tadpole stage is very dangerous, but you do get to bottom hug and eat everything motile bigger than a micron.
I will be protected in that stage though, right ?
Repo Man
06-21-08, 08:36 PM
I will be protected in that stage though, right ?
Remember, some tadpoles are herbivorous, while others (from the same species) are cannibals! So watch out for your fellow devolved humans!
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 08:38 PM
I will be protected in that stage though, right ?
Depends how much reptilian DNA affects the behavior of your parents. My guess: you'd be on your own, Dad being long gone and Mom letting statistics provide protection of her genes.
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 08:40 PM
We'd maintain the identity of "Humanity" as well as our intelligence and conciousness of who we are and where we are going. Even if we do evolve into something different, we will still be Humans, still be sapient beings.
It would still be an evolutionary line of one true banner, Humanity. From austrolopythicis to Homosapien to Homocyborg or whatever it might be.
I disagree. I can imagine one scenario where we whittle away at the emotions, as these are seen as hindrances. We would choose genes for intelligence - the traditional restricted sense of this word - strong, resilient bodies and coordination. Emotionless gorillas with computer brains.
That ain't human.
Technically, yes. But it's the same evolutionary line. We'd still be sentient beings.
Ah, but "we" wouldn't be "we", would we? Once you start talking about a different species, you have to say "they".
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 09:22 PM
Ah, but "we" wouldn't be "we", would we? Once you start talking about a different species, you have to say "they".
Especially since 'they' might very well think of 'us' as a 'them', just like we have a hard time thinking of some of our ancestors as 'us'. In fact they might very think of us like we think of fish or one celled animals. Or they might think of us as brutes. Or they might find artifacts from our general self-destruction and think 'Gosh, 'they' were very smart. I wonder what happened.' as they galloped along on four handlike feet.
Yeah, exactly. I think if there is ever a need for us to evolve into something else (which I suppose we may never need to. See Crocodiles for an example), I would imagine those folks would look at us with at least some sort of pity, but maybe be proud of the fact that their ancestors were so smart.
Also, there's a strong possibility that the next intelligent species isn't one that branched off from us. Maybe a species evolves from Chimps and ends up being the most intelligent creature nature ever created. Or maybe it comes from the descendants of the bottle-nosed dolphin. Who knows?
Norsefire
06-21-08, 09:34 PM
Ah, but "we" wouldn't be "we", would we? Once you start talking about a different species, you have to say "they".
"They" who came from "we" which is a continuation of "us" in general (Humanity)
Repo Man
06-21-08, 09:49 PM
Maybe it was more prophecy than fiction!
One night I had a frightful dream in which I met my grandmother under the sea. She lived in a phosphorescent palace of many terraces, with gardens of strange leprous corals and grotesque brachiate efflorescences, and welcomed me with a warmth that may have been sardonic. She had changed - as those who take to the water change - and told me she had never died. Instead, she had gone to a spot her dead son had learned about, and had leaped to a realm whose wonders - destined for him as well - he had spurned with a smoking pistol. This was to be my realm, too - I could not escape it. I would never die, but would live with those who had lived since before man ever walked the earth.
I met also that which had been her grandmother. For eighty thousand years Pth'thya-l'yi had lived in Y'ha-nthlei, and thither she had gone back after Obed Marsh was dead. Y'ha-nthlei was not destroyed when the upper-earth men shot death into the sea. It was hurt, but not destroyed. The Deep Ones could never be destroyed, even though the palaeogean magic of the forgotten Old Ones might sometimes check them. For the present they would rest; but some day, if they remembered, they would rise again for the tribute Great Cthulhu craved. It would be a city greater than Innsmouth next time. They had planned to spread, and had brought up that which would help them, but now they must wait once more. For bringing the upper-earth men's death I must do a penance, but that would not be heavy. This was the dream in which I saw a shoggoth for the first time, and the sight set me awake in a frenzy of screaming. That morning the mirror definitely told me I had acquired the Innsmouth look.
http://www.dagonbytes.com/thelibrary/lovecraft/theshadowoverinnsmouth.htm
Simon Anders
06-21-08, 09:52 PM
"They" who came from "we" which is a continuation of "us" in general (Humanity)
Do you consider yourself a fish?
madanthonywayne
06-22-08, 12:59 AM
\
Like Madanthony said, spreading across the universe will greatly enhance our chances. But, eventually, we might not persist in our current form.The Belisarius series was based on a war among the decedents of humanity, some of whom had adapted so much to their new environments as to be unrecognizable as humans. The "purists" wanted only traditional "humanoid" humans and sent a probe back in time to alter history to see to it that their vision of humanity prevailed. Good series.
If we spread across the universe we will eventually most likely evolve into a different species.
I hope we don't make it Again you reveal yourself as opposed to the continued existence of mankind! And this time without the environmental fig-leaf to hide your genocidal impulses.
What's your excuse this time for wishing extinction upon humanity?
madanthonywayne
06-22-08, 01:11 AM
We have done nothing to benefit this planet.Prior to the existence of mankind, the earth was filled with life that amounted to little more than sustained chemical reactions, self replicating DNA. Without thought, without consciousness, what's the point of existence?
Mankind brought the light of reason, of self awareness, of thought to the earth. Without men to appreciate it, the earth might as well not exist.
We give the earth purpose. We validate it. we might even allow some part of the earth to live on when the rest of the earth is a barren wasteland swallowed up by the red giant our sun will inevitably become.
We are earth's children. As such, it is our duty to live on and spread our seed as far and wide as we can. So long as we live, the earth lives.
Hell, we may even terraform distant planets in other solar systems. Recreating the earth again and again as tribute and remembrance of the planet of our birth.
That is, of course, so long as we survive long enough to reach our full potential.
Repo Man
06-22-08, 01:20 AM
What a load of egocentric twaddle. This planet was fine before humans were here, it'll be fine when we are gone.
madanthonywayne
06-22-08, 01:21 AM
Sure, it will be "fine". Just like mars is fine, and so is pluto. But without intelligent life, what's the point?
Repo Man
06-22-08, 01:30 AM
Sure, it will be "fine". Just like mars is fine, and so is pluto. But without intelligent life, what's the point?
Who knows? Maybe the point is something that is utterly beyond our comprehension. But humans have only been on this planet for a blindingly brief flash of geologic time, and we may be gone just as quickly. To think that all of the time before and after we were here is meaningless is breathtakingly self important.
madanthonywayne
06-22-08, 01:52 AM
Who knows? Maybe the point is something that is utterly beyond our comprehension. But humans have only been on this planet for a blindingly brief flash of geologic time, and we may be gone just as quickly. To think that all of the time before and after we were here is meaningless is breathtakingly self important.Perhaps. But if we can't comprehend it, who can? A universe without intelligent life might as well not exist. It's like a show with no audience. Devoid of purpose, devoid of meaning, worthless.
Remember, some tadpoles are herbivorous, while others (from the same species) are cannibals! So watch out for your fellow devolved humans!
Depends how much reptilian DNA affects the behavior of your parents. My guess: you'd be on your own, Dad being long gone and Mom letting statistics provide protection of her genes.
They can keep me in solitary until I've developed enough to be able to defend myself. They wouldn't just leave me open to attack, would they ?
Again you reveal yourself as opposed to the continued existence of mankind! And this time without the environmental fig-leaf to hide your genocidal impulses.
What's your excuse this time for wishing extinction upon humanity?
The cancer spreading throughout the entire universe ? Are you kidding ?
Prior to the existence of mankind, the earth was filled with life that amounted to little more than sustained chemical reactions, self replicating DNA. Without thought, without consciousness, what's the point of existence?
Mankind brought the light of reason, of self awareness, of thought to the earth. Without men to appreciate it, the earth might as well not exist.
We give the earth purpose. We validate it. we might even allow some part of the earth to live on when the rest of the earth is a barren wasteland swallowed up by the red giant our sun will inevitably become.
We are earth's children. As such, it is our duty to live on and spread our seed as far and wide as we can. So long as we live, the earth lives.
Hell, we may even terraform distant planets in other solar systems. Recreating the earth again and again as tribute and remembrance of the planet of our birth.
That is, of course, so long as we survive long enough to reach our full potential.
Total crap. The Earth has no purpose, as you put it. Life evolves because it can, not because there is some grand meaning to it. And for all the "appreciating" of the Earth you claim we are doing, we're kicking the crap out of it at double the pace. So do yourself a favor, put that hit of acid away, and look at things for what they are, not some fanciful, bogus daydream.
Total crap. The Earth has no purpose, as you put it. Life evolves because it can, not because there is some grand meaning to it. And for all the "appreciating" of the Earth you claim we are doing, we're kicking the crap out of it at double the pace. So do yourself a favor, put that hit of acid away, and look at things for what they are, not some fanciful, bogus daydream.
Thank you.
madanthonywayne
06-22-08, 11:45 PM
Total crap. The Earth has no purpose, as you put it. Life evolves because it can, not because there is some grand meaning to it. And for all the "appreciating" of the Earth you claim we are doing, we're kicking the crap out of it at double the pace. So do yourself a favor, put that hit of acid away, and look at things for what they are, not some fanciful, bogus daydream.The earth in its natural state has no purpose. No awareness. It exists, like any other planet. It so happens that on this particular planet biochemical reactions and environmental conditions gave rise to life.
Life has a purpose. To survive. To reproduce. To spread as far and wide as possible.
We give the earth purpose, our purpose. If we deem that that purpuse involves the earth getting the crap kicked out of it, then so be it.
Our time on this earth may be brief, or we may outlast the earth itself. But whatever the case, the earth is ours to do with as we please so long as we're here. We should use it to suit our ends.
rubbish
the plant kingdom is pissed off at us
the end is nigh for it has been foretold in the happening
repent while you still can
madanthonywayne
06-23-08, 12:21 AM
rubbish
the plant kingdom is pissed off at us
the end is nigh for it has been foretold in the happening
repent while you still can
What about the fungi? Are they also involved?:eek:
Our current race is doomed to extinction through evolution alone.
Syzygys
06-23-08, 01:22 AM
We give the earth purpose, our purpose.
And that is...? Also, your purpose might be very different than mine...
Syzygys
06-23-08, 01:25 AM
Other species may have laid down and died, but intelligence is a saving grace for Humanity imo. This awareness of the situation leads me to believe Humanity should outlast the rest of Earth's natural life.
As it has been pointed out, there are things that we can not control like asteroids or certain diseases.
Intelligence is also a double edged sword, because only by intelligence are we able to whipe ourselves out completely.
And there is Murphy's law too...And he was an optimist...
Entropy means the end of all life eventually.
Why do some believe Humanity will go extinct eventually?
.
Logic. We're on Earth; earth dies= we die. We need heat. Heat dies=we die. That kind of stuff.
Pandaemoni
06-23-08, 01:56 PM
That math is incorrect. The chance would be 1/1million every year. It would not become 2/1million in the second year. It'd be a 1/1million chance EVERY year with exactly that chance (assuming we use it), not growing any larger.
The rate stays the same, but the cumulative probability of that event occurring increases as the time interval you look at expands.
The math I used is this:
If we have a 1 in 1 million chance of extinction each year, then the chance of our surviving for one particular year is 999,999/1,000,000 (call this the "Base Rate") and as you look at longer periods, it changes as follows:
Surviving from today until the end of Year 1 = Base Rate
Surviving from today until the end of Year 2= (Base Rate)2
Surviving from today until the end of Year 3= (Base Rate)3
...
Surviving from today until the end of Year 10MM= (Base Rate)10,000,000
That last rate (.99999910,000,000) equals a 0.0045339% chance that we will survive that long. The rate we will be dead by then is (1 - survival) chance, or 99.9954600297% chance.
By way of a different example, suppose I am selecting snakes from ten opaque bags at random, putting the snake selected back into its bag after I have looked at it. Nine snakes/bags are harmless, but one is poisonous and will kill me if I remove it from its bag. That means there is a 1/10 chance of me dying every time I draw a snake. So what are the odds of my dying in 2 draws? The answer is that I have a 1/10 chance of dying on the first draw, and *if I don't* then a second 1/10th chance on the second draw. If I do draw the poison snake on the first draw, though, the game is over and the second draw is irrelevant. There are four possible outcomes to look at, in theory:
P{poison snake on the first draw, poison snake on the second}=(1/10)*(1/10)=1%
P{poison snake on the first draw, non-poison snake on the second}=(1/10)*(9/10)=9%
P{non-poison snake on the first draw, poison snake on the second}= (9/10)*(1/10)=9%
P{non-poison snake on the first draw, non-poison snake on the second}= (9/10)*(9/10)=81%
The results where I draw a poison snake are the first three, with a cumulative probability of 19%. That is identical to asking, "What is 1 - P{never drawing a poisonous snake}?" (= 100% - 81% = 19%)
In the same way, the odds of my drawing a poisonous snake somewhere in the course of 10 draws:
= 1 - P{not drawing any poisonous snakes in 10 draws}
= 1 - (0.9)10
= 1 - 0.3486784401
= 0.6513215599, or about 65%.
Norsefire
06-23-08, 09:46 PM
Intelligence is stronger than nature. That is why Humanity will survive, at least, longer than any other life form has.
Intelligence is stronger than nature. That is why Humanity will survive, at least, longer than any other life form has.
you seem to think that nature is not intelligent. Nature is just a more abstract mechanism of intelligence. Nature includes us all.
As for humanity, it will survive but in the end it will have to adapt and thus loose its humane self...
Intelligence is stronger than nature. That is why Humanity will survive, at least, longer than any other life form has.
:roflmao:
Pandaemoni
06-24-08, 02:53 AM
Intelligence is stronger than nature. That is why Humanity will survive, at least, longer than any other life form has.
Intelligence has served us well thus far, but it's a very expensive survival strategy. It requires a huge Calorie surplus to run the brain, and relatively abundant protein and other nutrients to properly develop and maintain it. In times of plenty it works. Place us under wide scale environmental stress though and it's not clear that it will be a good survival strategy. (It's only a matter of time before some mass extinction causing event hits us, and we'll need to see how well we withstand it. Add to that, again, that is there is a 1 in a million chance of a nuclear war starting in a given year, then our odds of surviving 10 million nuke-free years are very small, let alone billions of years.)
In any event, a scant 250,000 years into the history of the species, and it's a bit early to declare victory over all other species. Bacteria of various types (like Archaebacteria and Cyanobacteria) have been around for billions of years, and are still by many measures more biologically successful than humans. Compared to bacteria, all multicellar life are newcomers, having been here a scant 600 million years to their 4 billion.
Bad news for us, too, the Earth itself won't be inhabitable for much more an 1 billion more years. The bacteria seem to be running out the clock on us. If we are to beat them in longevity, it requires colonizing planets outside the solar system...and we likely need to take the bacteria with us to make that work. Those crafty bacteria seem to have every angle covered. Maybe they are more intelligent than I give them credit for. :D
You think bacteria have it good, what about mitochondria? They're symbiotes present in almost every living cell :)
Pandaemoni
06-26-08, 01:10 AM
You think bacteria have it good, what about mitochondria? They're symbiotes present in almost every living cell :)
I think mitochondria have lost their "separate life form" status (assuming the "endosymbiotic theory" is correct, as I tend to do) as they are no longer free-living organisms, and their reproduction is included as part of the natural reproductive cycle of all eukaryotic cells.
Without them, multicellular life in the form we tend to know it might not even have been possible. So it's not that we're humans with symbiotes living inside us—those symbiotes are an important part of the "definition" of what a human is.
That said, the prokaryotes are older even than mitochondria, including the cyanobacteria and archaebacteria
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