Chavez is a threat because he offers the alternative of a decent country

Chavez is a threat because he offers the alternative of a decent country

http://www.johnpilger.com/page.asp?partid=269

Venezuela's president is using oil revenues to liberate the poor - no wonder his enemies want to overthrow him, writes John Pilger in the Guardian.

 

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Beware of 'benevolent' dictators who deliberately consolidate power in themselves. What happens if and when they stop being so benevolent, or are replaced with someone malicious? "President for Life" is almost always the first step. Guess what Chavez is trying to become?

 

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Chavez is openly trying to remove the law preventing being elected for more than 2 terms (not sure if it is 2 or another number). I've never heard of him trying to remove presidential elections.

I oppose the term dictator to someone who was elected democratically by large margins. It is obviously misleading, to say the least, if not deliberate propaganda.

 

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He's a threat because he controls Venezuela's oil.

 

I can not remember but didn’t Plato's ‘The Republic’ advocate a Philosopher King?

Is Chavez a Philosopher?


Also, I have no problem with Chavez using the oil revenue to try to improve things for the poor. It’s probably the best thing at this stage as they have no middle class. I hope he has the billions to put into health and education and probably a revamp of farm methods and construction projects would help.

I hope he seeks investors in the country.

That said, this sort of government IMHO can only be a kick start – a push if you will. After that it will have to move to Democratic Republic or it will fail – the reason being simply that people could give two shits about one another (in general) and there are too many lazy people in the world. Lets face it waking up at 5AM and going home ay 7PM doesn’t sit well with most people.

Michael

 

Beware of Communist despotisms.

 

True, but it's also OK for We The People to try something and see how it goes. Who knows, maybe it will work out fine. Maybe not. But one thing is for sure - life has not gotten better for most SA for the last 400 years regardless of who has been in charge.

It may help get things pointed in the right direction? If not then oh well - they can try something else.

As for capitalism being the answer - it rests on a bed of bloody hard work.

Michael


PS: I still think there is a long-term issue with land ownership even in rich Capitolistic societies.

 

He can be taken down easier than Saddam.

Well, not by wussies projecting faux attitide.

 

I just heard on the news that Manuel Noreigo is to be released from the Florida jail where he has been held in for many years* I think I know why this is happening now.

He is a skilled agent, with many connections in the drug trade. His native language is Spanish (as is spoken in Chavez land, once called Venezuela.) He has years of experience in leading military uprisings, criminal gangs, etc. - Ideal for a CIA attempt top topple Chavez with "creditable deniability."

I could be wrong, probably I am, but his release from jail now sure is interesting timing. It would not be the first time a CIA agent has dropped from favor and then return to CIA service again.
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*Noreigo was the CIA's man during Regan's era. Regan need cash to support the "contras" and Congress had cut the money off, specifically forbidden even the CIA's "hidden funds" to be used. The alternative source of funds was drugs sold in the USA. The CIA even supplied the small airplanes used to smuggle them in. After the need for cash was over, the CIA told him to stop supplying US drug dealers, but he had been skimming cash and did not stop. So they threw his ass in jail.

BTW Saddam was also a US (probably CIA) agent for more than a decade, well paid and supplied by your tax dollars. (possibly supplied with the posion gas he used on Iranian troops. certainly supplied with the US satellite photos giving the troop locations.)

 

The first post of this thread is short on facts, but I saved some from the 26Nov06 issue of the Folio de Sao Paulo, page A30:

Chavez was first elected in 1998 so data below is 1998 vs. late in 2006 or latest available.

International reserves: $14.8 to 31.9 billion dollars (Pre-Chavez oil income often went into private Swiss accounts.)

Percent of “poor” in population: 55.4 decreased to 39.7%
Percent of “extreme poor” in population: 24.7 went to12.9%

Taxes collected (not including on oil as % of GDP): 22% went to ~50% in 2005. Also Chavez want to make two level gas prices - big cars will pay more than the US$0.40/ gallon (worlds cheapest), perhaps even the equavilent of one dollar/ gallon. No wonder the wealthy are bitching.

Year over Year change in GDP: +0.3% increased to +10% (Venezuela under Chavez is usually second only to China)

%unemployed: 11.0 went to 10.1%

Annual inflation as %:29.9 went to13.4%

Years of schooling (15years olds and up): 8.17 went to 8.89

Infant mortality per 1000 live births: 21.4 went to 17.1

Life expectancy went from72.4 to 73.2 years.

Social expenditures by government as % of GDP: went form 8.2 to 13.2%

NOW FOR THE “DOWN SIDE”

Homicides per 100,000 people went from 20 to 42

Robberies per 100,000 people went from 133 to 166
(Billy T comment: Pre Chavez, the police were more vigilant in protecting the wealthy

External debt (in nominal US billions of dollars): went from 39.9 to 41.0, but as both dollar lost value and oil went way up in price the quantity of oil need to pay it off is now less than half what it was.

SUMMARY:
All things considered, Bush would love to have done 10% as well for the average American. (he has done considerably better for the 5% most rich Americans with lower capital gain taxes, tax reductions, etc.)

Yes Chavez is a threat. - He is showing that real progress for the average citizen is possible. In US the average Joe American’s real wages have been going down. Back in approximately 1998 in the US the average CEO made 20 times the average wage. Under GWB the ratio is now 400 times. Yes the stock market is at all time high, Yes the corporate profits have never been better. Yes in the oil industry the profits have become so extreme that even Republicans are thinking: “Perhaps we no longer need to give that industry all the tax breaks and depletion allowances, etc.”

 

I think Hitler did the same for Germany, didn't he? What was the result?

Didn't Stalin do the same for Russia?

Threats don't have to be perfectly obvious, nor happen quickly.

Baron Max

 

There is nothing easy about our presence in Iraq.

 

Yes, Hitler did do good things for Germany, but made some very bad decisions, both domestically and in foreign policy. The settlement of WWI imposed on Germany lead to the rise of Hitler and was the basic cause of WWII. Hitler found it convient to blame Non-Arian and "degenerates" for the problems. (Gypsies homosexuals and physical or mental deficient also were eliminated, not only the Jews, but they get less coverage in the modern world's press etc.) If Hitler had confined his activities to the domestic economy, not made some scapegoats for short comings, and only tried to dominate Europe by trade (power of the Germany economy) as is to a large extent the current policy of Germany, the world's leading exporter and 3d largest GDP, then all would recognize him as a great leader and wonderful agent of economic advance.

Thus far, Chavez has not made Hitler's mistakes - Chavez has not selected out some part of Venezuela's population to be "scapegoats" and mistreated - The US is fulfilling this role for him, much as it does for the Cuban government. I.e. any shortcomings are easily blamed on the US and capitalism's exploitations of the masses for the wealth of the few etc.

As regards for Stalin - He was IMHO much worse than Hitler, probably directly responsible for more deaths and with his endorsement of Lamarckian genetic ideas, nearly staved the entire Russian population year after year of crop failures etc. Stalin only made Russian army strong, not the Russian economy. (However, I admit that I am not too knowledgeable in this and may not have a completely correct understanding of the Stalin era.) Certainly, Chavez is no Stalin as he is doing good things for the masses of Venezuela.

The picture that hangs behind Chavez's desk and his use of an old VW Beatle, he drives himself in, tell much about him. That picture is of Simon Bolivar, who in case your history is not good, liberated several South American countries (founding some) from the Spanish Empire's rule. Chavez wants to go down in history as the 21st century's Simon Bolivar, who liberated all of South American from the "Oppressive Yankee Rule" - Understand this, and you will understand Chavez. I strongly doubt he will make Hitler's mistakes, and unlike Hitler, he has oil resources.

For example: Instead of economic collapse that should normally have followed Argentina’s default on all its international debts, Argentina is rapidly growing and developing - Why? - Chavez has bought up almost all the bonds issued by the post default Argentine government. Direct Foreign Investment is flowing into Argentina! Even Brazil is losing out to Argentina in some cases (Memory makes me not sure, but I think Argentina just got the large Fiat factory Brazil wanted. etc.) At the meeting in Rio last week, the leaders of Mercsul* decided to start work on the "pipeline south" - it will eventually deliver Venezuelan oil (and gas?) all the way to Buenos Aires. South American is becoming governed by left leaning governments.

Chavez may just get his wish - to go down in history as the modern Simon Bolivar and his "Socialism of the 21st" will no doubt be modified** with time but may become South America's version of the "third way" or Scandinavian type of economies (high taxation but good social services, education etc.)
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*Venezuela recently became a member and Bolivia is applying. More than half the land mass of SA is a member of this trade group now. Perhaps in a decade more there will be a common currency, like the Euro. US’s era of domination is over. Brazil and Argentina will soon be signing trade contract for future delivery expressed in local currency instead of dollars etc.

**China and I both have little faith that "central planers" can do as well as Adam Smith's "invisible hand" in managing the economy, but government targeting of growth sectors (lower cost loans etc) does seem to work - For example 50 years ago Japan decided to encourage the shipbuilding industry etc.

 

And you're willing to gamble the lives of the people of Venezuela on that "strong doubt" of yours?

See? You, personally, have nothing to lose if you're wrong. But the people of Venezuela, and many people of the rest of the world, have much to lose. Your own gamble is from a position of safety regardless of what happens or what Chavez does or doesn't do ....so it's easy for you make wonderous predictions of grandeur.

Hmm, and didn't Hitler do the same thing with regards to the Jews and other ethnic groups???? Hmm? I thought you said he wouldn't make the same mistakes that Hitler did?? Hmm?

Baron Max

 

The people of Venezuela elected him...

 

The people of the USA elected President Bush, too. Do you love him as much as you love Chavez?

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Baron Max

 

I only think the people who supported the politician should have to share the politicians risk. Of course, those who didn't support them, like me with Bush, have to share the risk anyway. That's what you get when you're on the losing side, I guess.

Anyway, Chavez and Bush don't compare much when talking about the risks they pose to their people. Venezuelans don't have much to lose, generally speaking, and there isn't really any concrete evidence to make Chavez appear as a legitimate threat. Americans (and the rest of the world that Bush affects) have a lot to lose from his mistakes.

 

I like what Chavez has done to date; regrettably, he seems to want to ally with nutbars.

 

Chavez is mostly all talk when he is insulting America, but the one thing he does eventually want to carry out is diversifying the customers of Venezuelan oil.

Right now, the US is the principle purchaser of Venezuelan oil, and that's only because the US had the technology and money to invest in refineries that were able to eliminate the high sulfur content that is typical of Venezuela's oil. So no matter what Chavez says, he still relies on the US.

But in about 5 or 6 years time, you're going to see Chavez sell less and less of it's oil to the US as China is currently investing in refining technology that can also eliminate the high sulfur content of Venezuela's oil. When that happens (and if current US demand for oil is sustained or increases), then you're going to see America take Chavez seriously and the political scene will be heated. Chavez would like nothing better than to see it's oil not going into America, and if it does, he wants to use it for propaganda purposes (like what Citgo is doing for lesser-income families in the US).

Ultimately, I think Chavez is a great guy who genuinely wants to eliminate poverty in his country and in South America as a whole. But his extreme hatred for America is troubling, but oh well. That's politics for you. Can't win 'em all.

 

Hitler did a lot of good things for Germany in the early days, too. And I think Stalin did the same for Russia in the early days. But things went to shit pretty quickly when they both had a firm grip on the powers.

Anyone who trusts a politician, is ......hmmm, can't say that or I'll get banned again!

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Baron Max