Asteroid Threatens Earth!

[Combine]

http://www.spaceguarduk.com/news.htm

7 December 2005

SCIENTISTS CALL FOR PLANS TO CHANGE ASTEROID'S PATH - DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGY COULD TAKE DECADES

In Egyptian myth, Apophis was the ancient spirit of evil and destruction, a demon that was determined to plunge the world into eternal darkness.

A fitting name, astronomers reasoned, for a menace now hurtling towards Earth from outerspace. Scientists are monitoring the progress of a 390-metre wide asteroid discovered last year that is potentially on a collision course with the planet, and are imploring governments to decide on a strategy for dealing with it.

Nasa has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometres would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere.

And, scientists insist, there is actually very little time left to decide. At a recent meeting of experts in near-Earth objects (NEOs) in London, scientists said it could take decades to design, test and build the required technology to deflect the asteroid. Monica Grady, an expert in meteorites at the Open University, said: "It's a question of when, not if, a near Earth object collides with Earth. Many of the smaller objects break up when they reach the Earth's atmosphere and have no impact. However, a NEO larger than 1km [wide] will collide with Earth every few hundred thousand years and a NEO larger than 6km, which could cause mass extinction, will collide with Earth every hundred million years. We are overdue for a big one."

Apophis had been intermittently tracked since its discovery in June last year but, in December, it started causing serious concern. Projecting the orbit of the asteroid into the future, astronomers had calculated that the odds of it hitting the Earth in 2029 were alarming. As more observations came in, the odds got higher.

Having more than 20 years warning of potential impact might seem plenty of time. But, at last week's meeting, Andrea Carusi, president of the Spaceguard Foundation, said that the time for governments to make decisions on what to do was now, to give scientists time to prepare mitigation missions. At the peak of concern, Apophis asteroid was placed at four out of 10 on the Torino scale - a measure of the threat posed by an NEO where 10 is a certain collision which could cause a global catastrophe. This was the highest of any asteroid in recorded history and it had a 1 in 37 chance of hitting the Earth. The threat of a collision in 2029 was eventually ruled out at the end of last year.

Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, said: "When it does pass close to us on April 13 2029, the Earth will deflect it and change its orbit. There's a small possibility that if it passes through a particular point in space, the so-called keyhole, ... the Earth's gravity will change things so that when it comes back around again in 2036, it will collide with us." The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information.

There are no shortage of ideas on how to deflect asteroids. The Advanced Concepts Team at the European Space Agency have led the effort in designing a range of satellites and rockets to nudge asteroids on a collision course for Earth into a different orbit.

No technology has been left unconsidered, even potentially dangerous ideas such as nuclear powered spacecraft. "The advantage of nuclear propulsion is a lot of power," said Prof Fitzsimmons. "The negative thing is that ... we haven't done it yet. Whereas with solar electric propulsion, there are several spacecraft now that do use this technology so we're fairly confident it would work."

The favoured method is also potentially the easiest - throwing a spacecraft at an asteroid to change its direction. Esa plans to test this idea with its Don Quixote mission, where two satellites will be sent to an asteroid. One of them, Hidalgo, will collide with the asteroid at high speed while the other, Sancho, will measure the change in the object's orbit. Decisions on the actual design of these probes will be made in the coming months, with launch expected some time in the next decade. One idea that seems to have no support from astronomers is the use of explosives.

Prof Fitzsimmons. "If you explode too close to impact, perhaps you'll get hit by several fragments rather than one, so you spread out the area of damage."

In September, scientists at Strathclyde and Glasgow universities began computer simulations to work out the feasibility of changing the directions of asteroids on a collision course for Earth. In spring next year, there will be another opportunity for radar observations of Apophis that will help astronomers work out possible future orbits of the asteroid more accurately.

If, at that stage, they cannot rule out an impact with Earth in 2036, the next chance to make better observations will not be until 2013. Nasa has argued that a final decision on what to do about Apophis will have to be made at that stage.

"It may be a decision in 2013 whether or not to go ahead with a full-blown mitigation mission, but we need to start planning it before 2013," said Prof Fitzsimmons. In 2029, astronomers will know for sure if Apophis will pose a threat in 2036. If the worst-case scenarios turn out to be true and the Earth is not prepared, it will be too late. "If we wait until 2029, it would seem unlikely that you'd be able to do anything about 2036," said Mr Yates.

[may_wentee]

http://www.spaceguarduk.com/news.htm

7 December 2005

SCIENTISTS CALL FOR PLANS TO CHANGE ASTEROID'S PATH - DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGY COULD TAKE DECADES

In Egyptian myth, Apophis was the ancient spirit of evil and destruction, a demon that was determined to plunge the world into eternal darkness.

A fitting name, astronomers reasoned, for a menace now hurtling towards Earth from outerspace. Scientists are monitoring the progress of a 390-metre wide asteroid discovered last year that is potentially on a collision course with the planet, and are imploring governments to decide on a strategy for dealing with it.

Nasa has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometres would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere.

And, scientists insist, there is actually very little time left to decide. At a recent meeting of experts in near-Earth objects (NEOs) in London, scientists said it could take decades to design, test and build the required technology to deflect the asteroid. Monica Grady, an expert in meteorites at the Open University, said: "It's a question of when, not if, a near Earth object collides with Earth. Many of the smaller objects break up when they reach the Earth's atmosphere and have no impact. However, a NEO larger than 1km [wide] will collide with Earth every few hundred thousand years and a NEO larger than 6km, which could cause mass extinction, will collide with Earth every hundred million years. We are overdue for a big one."

Apophis had been intermittently tracked since its discovery in June last year but, in December, it started causing serious concern. Projecting the orbit of the asteroid into the future, astronomers had calculated that the odds of it hitting the Earth in 2029 were alarming. As more observations came in, the odds got higher.

Having more than 20 years warning of potential impact might seem plenty of time. But, at last week's meeting, Andrea Carusi, president of the Spaceguard Foundation, said that the time for governments to make decisions on what to do was now, to give scientists time to prepare mitigation missions. At the peak of concern, Apophis asteroid was placed at four out of 10 on the Torino scale - a measure of the threat posed by an NEO where 10 is a certain collision which could cause a global catastrophe. This was the highest of any asteroid in recorded history and it had a 1 in 37 chance of hitting the Earth. The threat of a collision in 2029 was eventually ruled out at the end of last year.

Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, said: "When it does pass close to us on April 13 2029, the Earth will deflect it and change its orbit. There's a small possibility that if it passes through a particular point in space, the so-called keyhole, ... the Earth's gravity will change things so that when it comes back around again in 2036, it will collide with us." The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information.

There are no shortage of ideas on how to deflect asteroids. The Advanced Concepts Team at the European Space Agency have led the effort in designing a range of satellites and rockets to nudge asteroids on a collision course for Earth into a different orbit.

No technology has been left unconsidered, even potentially dangerous ideas such as nuclear powered spacecraft. "The advantage of nuclear propulsion is a lot of power," said Prof Fitzsimmons. "The negative thing is that ... we haven't done it yet. Whereas with solar electric propulsion, there are several spacecraft now that do use this technology so we're fairly confident it would work."

The favoured method is also potentially the easiest - throwing a spacecraft at an asteroid to change its direction. Esa plans to test this idea with its Don Quixote mission, where two satellites will be sent to an asteroid. One of them, Hidalgo, will collide with the asteroid at high speed while the other, Sancho, will measure the change in the object's orbit. Decisions on the actual design of these probes will be made in the coming months, with launch expected some time in the next decade. One idea that seems to have no support from astronomers is the use of explosives.

Prof Fitzsimmons. "If you explode too close to impact, perhaps you'll get hit by several fragments rather than one, so you spread out the area of damage."

In September, scientists at Strathclyde and Glasgow universities began computer simulations to work out the feasibility of changing the directions of asteroids on a collision course for Earth. In spring next year, there will be another opportunity for radar observations of Apophis that will help astronomers work out possible future orbits of the asteroid more accurately.

If, at that stage, they cannot rule out an impact with Earth in 2036, the next chance to make better observations will not be until 2013. Nasa has argued that a final decision on what to do about Apophis will have to be made at that stage.

"It may be a decision in 2013 whether or not to go ahead with a full-blown mitigation mission, but we need to start planning it before 2013," said Prof Fitzsimmons. In 2029, astronomers will know for sure if Apophis will pose a threat in 2036. If the worst-case scenarios turn out to be true and the Earth is not prepared, it will be too late. "If we wait until 2029, it would seem unlikely that you'd be able to do anything about 2036," said Mr Yates.

Will this near-global exinction event happen during a Super Bowl weekend? :D

[Mythbuster]

If it was 'true' it would be a mere coincidence, since the claim is based, ultimately, on nothing.

Here's a most pertinent link: A brief history of failed doomsday prophecies. (http://www.randi.org/encyclopedia/appendix3.html)

Enjoy.

[Ophiolite]

If it was 'true' it would be a mere coincidence, since the claim is based, ultimately, on nothing.
I am perplexed. What is it you are saying is mere coincidence? Are you suggesting the asteroid does not exist? That it is not going to approach quite closely to the Earth? That it is not going to run a small, but finite risk of being deflected by that close passage to a collision course?
Are you suggesting that detailed observations of the asteroid, coupled with careful orbital mechanics calculations, constitute 'nothing'?
Perplexed very, am I.

[may_wentee]

Best thing to do is just let the asteroid hit the earth in 2036, if it's going to hit it at all. That should remove all doubt. Right? Right! :D

[URI]

>> a NEO larger than 6km, which could cause mass extinction,

no mass extinctions... comets do that

just a bit of a mess.... in your backyard... not mine, LOL

[TruthSeeker]

Asteroid Threatens Earth!
AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMM!!!!!!!!!

Run for your lives!! Run to the mountains!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

:m:

[leopold99]

http://www.alcyone.de/POrbits/english/apollos.html

[Ophiolite]

Thank you TruthSeeker for your thoughtful, measured contribution to what could have been an interesting discussion. Are you always so penetrating and analytical in your posts?

[And Leo, what are you like? Destroying the quality of the thread by posting facts, and evidence, and information. Why can't you be like TS: use a big font and post drivel. ;) ]

[leopold99]

http://www.bigtittygals.com/

better?

[may_wentee]

Asteroid Threatens Earth!
AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMM!!!!!!!!!

Run for your lives!! Run to the mountains!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

:m:

Any updates or play-by-plays of the asteroid empending impact event leading up to 2036 will certainly be welcome........If you're still lucky to be around afterwards, then keep us posted. O.K.?

[TruthSeeker]

http://www.alcyone.de/POrbits/english/apollos.html
Buuuuuuuuhhh!!!!! Boooooorrrriiiiiinnnngggg!!!!!!!

[TruthSeeker]

Thank you TruthSeeker for your thoughtful, measured contribution to what could have been an interesting discussion. Are you always so penetrating and analytical in your posts?
ABSOLUTELY!!

[And Leo, what are you like? Destroying the quality of the thread by posting facts, and evidence, and information. Why can't you be like TS: use a big font and post drivel. ;) ]
Yeah! What the hell!! :bugeye:

[TruthSeeker]

http://www.bigtittygals.com/

better?
That's better!!! :D

[TruthSeeker]

Any updates or play-by-plays of the asteroid empending impact event leading up to 2036 will certainly be welcome........If you're still lucky to be around afterwards, then keep us posted. O.K.?
I'm not from the future....

Anyways... Oh... Is it coming in 2036? Geeeezzz.... you guys scared me.... :bugeye:

[leopold99]

That's better!!! :D
i thuoght you would like it ;)

[Mythbuster]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?1.8e-04

1 in 5,560 chance
99.98200000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=99942

[eburacum45]

We have had near encounters like this for all of human history. If they don't hit, they cause no harm at all.
It is only the fact that we can detect these asteroids that makes anyone worry about them; face it, a 99.982% chance that it won't hit is practically the same as no chance at all.

[abyssoft]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

For a full list of current objects on the Impact risk watch.

currently there are 3 objects which warrant a 1 on the Torino scale.
Name Palermo Max Impact % Date of impact(yyyy-mm-dd.dd)
99942 Apophis (2004 mn4) -1.39 0.01600% 2036-04-13.37
2004 vd17 -0.64 0.03100% 2102-05-04.89
1997 xr2 -2.71 0.00450% 2101-06-01.91

(dd.dd first dd is the day, second dd is part of that day .50= 1200 UTC)
See http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/palermo.html for a complete description of the Palermo Scale.
See http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html for a complete description of the Torino Scale.

[D H]

It is only the fact that we can detect these asteroids that makes anyone worry about them; face it, a 99.982% chance that it won't hit is practically the same as no chance at all.

People started looking for these asteroids after it was discovered that asteroid impacts were the most likely culprit for at least one, if not many, massive die-offs (aka extinction level events).

A one in 5,560 chance of a large asteroid impacting the Earth is fantastically bad odds given the consequences of the impact. Compare those odds to
The odds of being in a fatal automobile accident on a 1200 mile round trip vacation: about 1 in 88,000.
The odds of being in a fatal aircraft accident on a 1200 mile round trip vacation: less than 1 in 2 million.
The odds of being in a fatal automobile accident during a one year period: 1 in 5880.


There are about 10 million aircraft departures in the US per year. Should 1 out of 5560 of those flights crash and burn there would be 179 fatal airplane crashes per day. Commercial aviation would be non-existent with those kinds of odds.

[TruthSeeker]

People started looking for these asteroids after it was discovered that asteroid impacts were the most likely culprit for at least one, if not many, massive die-offs (aka extinction level events).

A one in 5,560 chance of a large asteroid impacting the Earth is fantastically bad odds given the consequences of the impact. Compare those odds to
The odds of being in a fatal automobile accident on a 1200 mile round trip vacation: about 1 in 88,000.
The odds of being in a fatal aircraft accident on a 1200 mile round trip vacation: less than 1 in 2 million.
The odds of being in a fatal automobile accident during a one year period: 1 in 5880.


There are about 10 million aircraft departures in the US per year. Should 1 out of 5560 of those flights crash and burn there would be 179 fatal airplane crashes per day. Commercial aviation would be non-existent with those kinds of odds.
Good argument, but I personally refute it.

In the last paragraph, you are implying that there are 10 million possible asteroids to impact earth. Well, even if there ARE 10 million asteroids around our solar system, only a handful of them are actually big enough to threaten us. Not only that but comparing the size of our solar system to the size of earth and an asteroid, you will see that the odds of an asteroid big enough to doom us to hit this small piece of heaven in the middle of an ocean of nothing is very very VERY slim, just like the odds of finding a needle in the middle of the Saharan desert.

[TruthSeeker]

We are dooomed!!! We are doooooooooooommmmeeedd!!!!!

[Novacane]

We have had near encounters like this for all of human history. If they don't hit, they cause no harm at all.
It is only the fact that we can detect these asteroids that makes anyone worry about them; face it, a 99.982% chance that it won't hit is practically the same as no chance at all.

I guess the dinosaurs would disagree with you on that one. At least the ones that were around 65 million years ago probably would. :D

[QuarkMoon]

Good points, DH. Remember people, we are talking about a 1 in 5560 chance of being wiped out. That's pretty bad odds. But than again, it's projected to hit in 2036, so if it turns out that the asteroid beats the odds and heads right for us, I'm sure we will have the capability of at least deflecting it (if not blowing it up into small enough pieces so that they burn up harmlessly in our atmosphere).

[Avatar]

Armageddon is a sunny day.
There is such a neofolk song by Riharc Smiles, very good.

[D H]

But than again, it's projected to hit in 2036, so if it turns out that the asteroid beats the odds and heads right for us, I'm sure we will have the capability of at least deflecting it (if not blowing it up into small enough pieces so that they burn up harmlessly in our atmosphere).

Deflecting it is the correct course of action. But that takes time. A small amount of energy applied many years in advance would suffice. Deflecting it a short time before impact (a few years is a short time in this case) would require a huge amount of energy. Applying a huge amount of energy would be more likely to break it up rather than deflect it.

We are not doomed. We currently have plenty of time to study the asteroid further and take action if needed.

[ReighnStorm]

Asteroids.....Massive Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Tsunamis, Mudslides, People, Diseases....we're all going to go somehow, someway and somewhere. Ever heard of Death!? It's coming whether you like it or not!

As far as the Asteroid thing goes.....I heard about this over 10 years ago. The same information stated in this post!

I say..." enjoy the time that you have on this beautiful beloved planet" and "leave the rest of it to life and death as it may be"! ;)

[Ophiolite]

On the basis of the logic you are using here Reighn, there is little point in looking left and right before crossing the road, and none at all in jumping out of the way if you spot an approaching truck.

[eburacum45]

I guess the dinosaurs would disagree with you on that one. At least the ones that were around 65 million years ago probably would. :D
The dinosaurs were around for 180 million years waiting for that dinosaur killer. An event which occurs every hundred million years or so is a negligible risk.

[Billy T]

...if not blowing it up into small enough pieces so that they burn up harmlessly in our atmosphere.I doubt the "harmlessly." To take an extreme case:

If it has enough energy to threaten life on earth, I think I may prefer a lot of its energy being dissipated in making localized dirt into glass etc. rather than dumping all that energy in one side of the atmosphere. That much energy may be able to so heat the atmosphere so that much of it gets "Earth escape velocity" or at least roast us all.

I am too lazy to do the calculation, but it is not too hard. How much energy, instantly deposited, is required to boil the air (turn water vapor, clouds, & ice crystals in air to "live steam")? (It will probably happen when the sun goes "red giant" anyway, but that is about 4 billion year from now, if memory serves me correctly - perhaps it is 8 billion years from now?.)

[may_wentee]

The dinosaurs were around for 180 million years waiting for that dinosaur killer. An event which occurs every hundred million years or so is a negligible risk.

Maybe you can give us an update to when the next near-global exinction event will occur. I just got an email from a Komono Dragon in the Galopagos Islands. He's getting a little concerned. :D

[eburacum45]

You can tell your correspondent that he or she will most probably have many more millions of years to wait yet.

[Ophiolite]

Crap. We are in the midst of a global extinction event brought on by the runaway 'success' of humanity.

[blobrana]

Hum,

I just got an email from a tiger in south America saying that humans have brought about the highest extinction rate since the Permian extinction event 251 million years ago.

[Ophiolite]

I take it the tiger was involved in some way with the underworld and had fled to South America from Asia to escape the clutches of Interpol. Still, it is good to see even criminal tigers taking a concerned interest in the biosphere.

[DwayneD.L.Rabon]

The magnetic pole reversal of saturn threatens earth

DwayneD.L.Rabon

[QuarkMoon]

The magnetic pole reversal of saturn threatens earth

DwayneD.L.Rabon

How?

[ReighnStorm]

On the basis of the logic you are using here Reighn, there is little point in looking left and right before crossing the road, and none at all in jumping out of the way if you spot an approaching truck.
No. I'm stating facts about natural catastrophe....not deliberate death by choice. The point is that you have no choices in the matter of nature! Committing suicide by chance is not possible. But dying is. :(

[Ophiolite]

The point is that you have no choices in the matter of nature! Nonsense. You can choose not live on the slopes of a volcano. You can elect not to construct housing on a flood plain. And, in this instance, you can identify potential bolide threats and concoct a sound engineering plan to deal with them. Failure to do so is tantamount to suicide.

[eburacum45]

Okay. let's look at the risks a little more sensibly. It will most probably be millions of years before a substantial asteroid hits the Earth; so we have time to devise strategies to deflect them.

However we might expect a large boulder weighing a few hundred tonnes to hit the Earth every century or two; if such a boulder hit a city it could wipe it out.
In previous centuries such an event would have probably gone unnoticed, as the Earth was not very densely populated.
But today there are many more people all over the world; so even a boulder might hit some sort of settlement.

To avoid this risk we will need to map all the boulders in Near Earth Orbit; a formidable task, but one which could also be a prelude to exploitation of the resources in those objects. Near Earth objects can be used for raw materials for spacecraft and habitat construction and to produce fuel and propellant.
(see Mining the Sky by John Lewis)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0201328194/002-7279087-7937604?v=glance&n=283155


If a skymining company has mining rights on such an earth-crossing asteroid it would have a vested interest in not allowing it to impact the Earth, and if necessary would use the asteroid mass-driver method of managing the object's orbit.