Peak Oil is freaking me out

Man, I've been freaked out for several days now that the reality of the forthcoming crash of the US economy has hit home. I was reading up on this and that and stumbled across a few articles on Peak Oil. I'd heard of it before, but didn't realize how soon the effects may come, nor how very vast the implications may be.

It could be the end of civilization as we know it, or just a pretty big bump in the road. Regardless, it looks like by 2010 or so we should all (especially the US) start to feel it unless something changes significantly between now and then.

I found the following links to be quite sobering and quite disturbing:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

http://www.world-crisis.com/analysis_comments/910_0_15_0_C32/

http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=624

I read a few others, all pretty much just as bad.

I don't expect there's a light at the end of this tunnel.

I suppose it's time to focus on trying to own real-estate with no debt, and invest in a wood stove and some gardening tools (as long as they don't run on gas).

Ack.

 

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As much as its scary for Americans I think the crash of the american market will do alot of good in the world in general.
Firstly it will force a more diverse global market of import and export. Instead of everybody just exporting to the states.
As most of the rest of the world has already hit its crash it will give them all a boost up.

Canada will I think be the worst off as a result unless we diversify our exports ALOT. Trade more heavily with the EU and ASEAN. We as a country are to heavily dependent upon our heavy set neighbour.

 

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Hmm. This here thingy seems to contradict the links above:

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=44011&d=29&m=4&y=2004

 

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The oil in the Gulf of Mexico has not delcined in production, despite forecasts.
This leads some to believe that the Gulf is actually producing oil as we pump it.
I read somewhere (News Scientist maybe?) that miles and miles under the crust there are layers of non-organic hydrocarbons.

But preperation for the end of times is always a pretty good idea, especially when some people are pushing for it.

 

Well, at this point it looks like Peak oil is dependent on Saudi's actual reserves, which is under dispute. One report says we'll make it easily through the next 50 years on oil, the other says we're through within 5. Yet another says there's plenty but the world's elite are trying to stifle production to start world war because of over-population. Hehe. So now I don't know what to think. Stoopid web.

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So maybe there's no reason to freak out, because it's the same as every day. The world might end tomorrow - or not. *shrug*

 

In that case, you Americans have no choice but to stand next to your * sigh * president * sigh * Bush, it's a matter of survival (also better develope those Alaska oil fields at the expense of some polar bears).....

Me wonders how the Chinese and Europeans plan to deal with the oilpeak, the millitary option is somewhat unattractive since the usa has been arming itselve to the teeth in the prelude towards the world wide resource wars....

Damn! better hurry up that nuclear fusion concept iv've been building in my backyard.

On another note it's interesting to watch the efforts to ramp up oil production in African countries. Africa, largely forgotten since the end of the cold war, enjoys full attention of the western conporations and this will be one of the first places where the actual resource wars (wrapped in some semi-trible cristian vs muslim excuse) wmight break loose...

 

Welcome aboard, Wes.
Now, I hope you'll excuse me when I mention that its only been on at least 2 threads in the earth science section for the last year, and it has even been mentioned in an article in "the scotsman", nomally an establishment dominated newspaper.

Now, to sum up what I have read, and what I think makes sense, whilst not getting too overenthusiastic about either side:
We are finding less oil reserves than are being used up.
It may well be that oil is formed inorganically in the Earth, (not from old plants etc.) as per an idea some Russian had over 30 years ago, and as occured to some american in the Mexican gulf 5 or 10 years ago. If this is indeed the case, oil will never entirely run out, but, as long as the oil reserves fill up slower than the oil is taken out, the peak oil scenario still holds. So far this seems to be the case. If all oil wells were filling up again from below, I would expect that people would have noticed sooner. Since few seem to be doing so, it seems reasonable to say that few fields will do so, and thus the amount of oil accessible from them is low.
Depending upon whom you talk to, the technology for getting more oil out the ground is either as well develped as it can get, or else still has a way to go. But either way, it is more expensive. Which will drive the price of said oil up. Ultimately its effect would be to delay the peak for a year or two.

Cyberia, CAnada will not necessarily be worst off, you have huge amounts of tar sands which will become economic to mine when oil prices get high enough. But then you haev to cope with the expense, and the sulphur and the environmental effects.

Present conditions, with every producer apparently producing flat out, and oil prices still so high because of demand from India and China, suggest that high oil prices will be with us for a year or two at least, especially since Iraq with its potential for 5 or 6 mbpd output is several years away from such output.

It does seem to me that there is no need to posit widespread social collapse, more like slowly gatehring economic pain and recession, as the world economies try to reconfigure to new energy and raw material sources. We can use coal for many of the precursors for plastics and pesticides, but that would be far more expensive than using oil. So buy shares in natural resource producers. If we can get fusion working by 2015 there wont be so much trouble, but if not, then its back to expensive energy and nuclear fuel, with its own worries.

So, how do you feel Wes knowing how important oil is to "civilisation"?

If I were you I would'nt start trying to focus on real estate with attendant woods just yet, but it would be a good idea to save some money, so when the time gets closer and it becomes clearer whats happening, you'll be prepared.
Personally, I'm wondering what will happen about 2010.

 

That "arabnews" article looks odd, from the point of view that hwo can you suddenly triple reserves? I mean Shell overestimated how much it had by a matter of a third or something, and got hammered? How, in this day and age can you suddenly say, "oh, we made a mistake, theres actually 3 times as much oil as we thought there was."?

 

I generally agree with what you said guthrie, that's a sound, rational analysis. I think higher tech extraction might have more viabilty that a year or two, but I don't count on it.

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I wasn't talking about land in the woods, I mostly mean owning my home flat out, rather than a lot of debt on it. As the price of living goes up, a house payment will be tougher and tougher to make.

 

Thanks wes, thats one of the few compliments I've had for a while.

As for owning your home outright, I suppose that is right. You might also want to ensure that any fixings, such as roof or guttering or whatever, is in sound shape, and anything that uses oil based materials is also done before oil gets more expensive.

(not that I'm trying to panic you or anything, but the simple fact is that modern building methods, at least in the UK, are energy intensive and require lots of oil and stuff. The more traditional methods are less so, but require more plain labour in the upkeep, eg thatched roofs.)

 

No doubt it is scary stuff to read about the dwindling supply versus the ever-increasing demand, but the optimist in me thinks that with all the vast resources concentrated on the energy business at large, a solution will be presenting itself sooner than later. Petroleum is a combination of hydrocarbons that can be duplicated in a lab environment. Isn't it simply a matter of making it a national priority before we create the "new oil" and proceed to sell it to the rest of the world at a handsome profit? I think part of the dependence on oil is simple apathy. It is easy to import our oil because that is what we grown accustomed to doing.

My hope is to see the U.S. pioneer the hydrogen economy and sell it to the rest of the world for huge dollars, thus continuing the Western dominance that keeps things the way they work the best.

My nightmare is a world where gutless people kowtow to the demands of Opec in hopes of appeasement.

 

yes but America has repeatdly vettoed any plans to find a full scale replacement for dependance on oil. who knows why.

some says its part of US tactics. so they can suppot evil and corrupt regimes and peoples and start wars etc. under the false basis of oil but really have much more sinister plans but becasue of this trick people think the "sinister" plan is oil, a bit confused?? its hard to word. it also gives America an excuse to intervene in the Arab world on the false basis of oil but once again when the real motives are kept secret

whaaa haa ha haaaaa haaaa haa ha hah haaaa

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I did stumble across one page dedicated to a wild conspiracy about how the financial elites of the planet want to wipe out at least half the world's population via war/starvation, etc that result from peak oil. The wild spectulator was going on the idea that basically, we're using up the rich folk's oxygen (food, energy, etc.) so they decided to cull the herd.

 

The chinese seem very much aware of the oil peak:

- they have the largest dam in the world
- the largest windenergy park will be completed before the olympics
- huge chinese participations in the giant australian solar tower (seems nice to use in Gobi dessert)
- actively promoting of hybrid concepts for cars etc

Not be overly optimistic of green energy, because As the article stated, the development of alternative resources requires oil itselve for the polymeres construction / energy etc, but the chinese have currently lots of money to spend, so now would be a good time to invest preparing for the worst case scenario...

On the whole I think the chinese are trying to deal with the oilpeak in more innovative and creative ways than the american government who seems to want to solve it in a way that first of all pleases the "old money" industries that were build on cole, steel and oil...

 

Yes and no. CA is going the H2 way, though it seems to need some public money to do so. Other countries are working on other things, Iceland for example has loads of geothermal. Work is proceeding on all major, likely alternatives (I do not include various things such as cold fusion, perpetual motion, or Tesla devices in this.) such as fusion, fuel cells, probably also bacterial manufacturing. It seems to me that is the most likely route for many of the specialised oil needs, from lubrication to specialist plastics, but I cannot ever see it producing enough oil for burning in cars. In order to create oil you need hydrocarbons, like plant matter, and energy, ie the sun is the most likely candidate. So even if you end up with square kilometres of vats of bacteria, there will be various problems to do with energy, production rate, keeping the bacteria happy etc etc, that mean oil will never be so widely used again.

See above. Reproducing oil in a lab takes energy and time. Probably more than you get of the oil you end up with. Indeed youa re correct, it is best to keep using oil because that is what we are set up to do, billions upon billions of dollars of infrastructure is oriented towards it, over 80 years of technology, buildings, universities, thinking etc is built around it. All this has some kind of economic inertia, besides, how many companies try to avoid change until the very last minute?

You seem to be forgetting the USA is not its transnational corporations. I can think of nothing worse for the future than western dominance, well any more than any specific dominance actually.

Sensible gutless people like myself will have rejigged the economy and suchlike to avoid such circumstances. Its just getting the politicians to come to our way of thinking, and then persuading the businessmen who dont want to change.

 

Good to see you posting again Guthrie. Didn't you go away for a bit?

Some things that I thought about today at work:

Let's suppose that the majority of mainstream auto manufacturers were basically forced to start the transition from engines that run on gas to engines that are hybrid powerplants, or engines that could run exclusively on alcohol. That would be a tremendous advance toward the goal of less dependence on oil. However, that does nothing toward lessening our ever-growing dependence on plastics. Everything seems to be made of plastic these days. That's about half of what Wal-Mart sells. My friend Chunkylover calls Wal-Mart "Useless Plastic Crap Store". It's not that far from the truth. How do we tackle that issue? I seriously doubt most people are willing to give up their tupperware and Rubbermaid storage containers for an old wooden bucket or basket? A metal lunchbox? Get real.

So it appears that we have an issue with petroleum that goes far beyond the obvious one of how do we power our autos without it.

 

Thank god! The current civilization is a waste of time. Let's look forward to its destruction.

 

Funny thing all those doomsayers ignore nuclear power. Their best "arguments" are "remember chernoble" and "radioactivity" .Despite the fact that coal power plants are literally 10 times more dangerous for human environemnt in terms of radioactivity.

They ignore the fact that breeder type reactors can make their own fuel and estimates of how long "uranium" will last far exceed 30-40 years.

yes it will require rebuilding infrastracture. Yes personal SUVs will become extinct. But we will not wake up one day and realize that we can't power our computers , heating ,machinery or delivery truck.

Instead of doing REAL work -e.g. starting building actual plants and infrastracture NOW people either whine that there is nothing we can do or ignore the issue. And how it will end? - with WW3 general mornic population will destroy our whole civilization and survivors would be extremly lucky to have any chance of rebuilding it. Sigh.

 

Settle down folks. As oil becomes more scarce, it will become more expensive (as it seems to be doing now) Even the relatively small increase in prices we've seen lately has resulted in a decrease in consumption. As oil becomes more expensive, alternative energy sources will be more and more attractive. Also, as coorporations see there's money to be made in alternative energy sources, they'll begin seriously trying to develop it. Ultimately, we may develop a power source even better that oil, be it geothermal, solar, nuclear, fusion, large solar arays in orbit...whatever. If things don't work out and it comes to war, well, we've still got the best military in the world.

 

I can see paradise by the dashboard light......