China is growing up.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

I love the quote at the end of the yellow box concerning enviomental concerns.

"If Chinese wanted to live like Americans we would need resources of four worlds."

You think the Chinese people or government is looking at their progress through the looking glass? Examining their own abnormal rise?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Independent, huh? Right.

If there's one thing the last five years have shown, it's that the Chinese DO want to "live like Americans". Within the next five years, China will have as many middle-class citizens as America has TOTAL citizens -- over 300 million.

Know what the popular barometer is for being in the "middle class" in China?

You get three guesses, and the first two don't count. One hint: It'll replace the family bicycle.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

We have to face some pretty hard knock facts, the world is changing and that world is becoming Sino. I'll be learning Mandarin you? I don’t think China can ever have the same standards of the west, but some in China will. 400 million people are already out of poverty, and by 2015 the Chinese economy should be the world’s largest, and possibly the world largest importer/exporter? We as the world have to now mutate to accept the mold that China is making in our world. China has the ultimate absolute advantage, and is even stealing jobs away from Mexico, and Honduras! China is literally becoming the world’s factory, and her relative power is only going to increase. There are major problems in China, demographics, the environment, and an overheating economy. But I think that China’s growth is basically irreversible. In theory the world should benefit from a strong China (and to an extent it is).

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

The one thing you have to watch out for with China is its mounting debt. According to a recent Newsweek article (dim recollection here, so don't quote me on this) something like 50% of its loans are already considered non-producing, and that's a very bad sign. If they do have a collapse, it'll affect everyone on the planet.

 

Yes it will, and that is true that China has hundreds of billions of non-performing debt. But the thing is that we in the West cannot let China simply fall of the face of the Earth. China luckily has over $435 billion worth of FOREX so there is a safety net, and China has stopped all lending to overheated industries. I think China is in need to a correction, the best we can hope for is a soft landing for the truly massive Chinese economy. The US economy would suffer greatly if the Chinese simply collapse, inflation (which is already a problem) is bound to increase, and a shortage of consumer goods would occur, poor Wal-Mart not only would she have 1 million women suing it, it would face a shortage of goods! The US depends on the nice Chinese to buy US bonds, and treasuries of which the Chinese have around $165 billion worth (China being the largest US creditor). So it is in all our best interests to let China fall softly.

 

Interesting points.

I don't think most folks realize that economies that are booming do indeed have corrections, and they're fairly predictable events.

 

If you have seen The Last Samurai, you will note that not all change is good, especially at a fast pace.

Wonder if there's any resistance from those who don't want to be westernized?

 

Well there wasn't much historical accuracy in that particular movie (I submitted one anachronism to the Internet Movie Database myself). But I agree in general.

Another thing that's interesting about this whole China thing is that it's still a communist government. It seems to be disproving the old axiom that socialism cannot prosper.

 

Another thing that's interesting about this whole China thing is that it's still a communist government. It seems to be disproving the old axiom that socialism cannot prosper.

China is communist only in name; the Chinese govt is ensuring the implosion of communism in China. China wants a capitalist economy with a reformed socialist state, and China I think realizes that she has to become transparent so investors can feel more secure in the Chinese govt and legal systems.

 

At least Reformism suggests that China is closely inclined to Capitalism with Control...

bye!

 

Has anyone noticed that no country in the world has actually gone from pastoral through to relatively modern state, whilst actually having what we now would call a representative democracy?

 

Not even the US?

 

isn't china communist?

 

China is stalinist, ie strong central control. there is some regional autonomy, but i dont think anyone actually gets to vote for much, unlike what they would under the system of soviets.

I'm no expert on the USA, but it didnt really have a completely representative democracy until when in the 20th century I mean voting for women and everyone over a cetain age, not just a property qualification. And having a frontier with resources to use changes the equations somewhat, give a place to grow and develop and let off excess pressure.

 

So far I had about 5+ threads that went on about china and what I think. Personally I think its gonna burst, Its gonna burst badly and semi-unexpectedly. It will be soon 6 months to 2 years from now and the nice little things that are occuring now are simply giving small signs of it happening.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-07/22/content_350586.htm
If you notice what this article states
"China saw its first half-year trade deficit of US$6.82 billion this year, as imports surged 42.6 per cent compared to 35.7 per cent for exports."
Now please think for a few seconds and let it sink in. The only strength it held was cheap quantity good production capability with low or no quality. Instead of garnering surefire profits by slowly encroaching this market rationaly they threw it away by imposing market control procedures (tieing yuan to dollar cost instead of market "world" cost) therefor bidding up world prices for commodities needed to produce those goods twice as fast while keeping their selling prices frozen lowering their profit margins. This did two things killed off all the competition and made it unprofitable of actually producing all those things.

Furthermore I am sure the Three gorge dam will burst and its just a matter of time till this disaster strikes. The reason I m sure is because the german companies which have been exemplery in areas such as quality construction have been squeezed out by the chinese. All the important service contracts are transfered over to low cost non quality and non qualified chinese technicians who dont know how to service dam projects of this magnitude properly. Maintenance moneys is probably so skimmed off that all the sedement that hasnt been cleaned out nor repairs and checks on structural integrity will not be conducted properly especially as the flooding season progresses.

Also notice the amount of pending anti-dumping legislation against china in wto that will come into effect within the next 2 years. China on the other hand cant really feed itself and has to import food and energy to feed its production capacity/capability. I read how they have to ration electricity and its not uncommon for lots of power interruptions to occur that stop production during the week.

 

I think the problem is that China is growing out of control. They don't have the infrastructure, and it might not be very orderly. Here, in Brasil, we have had this kind of growth too. It cause a few things such as inflation, high interest rates and lack of infrastructure. With China, it might be the same.

Now, the economy is overheated. But what will happen when the living standarts keep rising and people start earning more money? It will lose all the appeal for exportation. The costs of work will increase and the cost of the products will obviously increase with it. Then, what is heating up the economy will cool down until it come to a stable stop, hopefully. But if it happen as sudden as the heating up, we might have a collapse in the economy, with no money to pay for all that is going on. And I think the worst would be inflation....

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!