Asteroid on Collision Course?

[Red Devil]

LONDON (Reuters) - A giant asteroid is heading for Earth and could hit in 2014, U.S. astronomers have warned British space monitors. But for those fearing Armageddon, don't be alarmed the chances of a catastrophic collision are just one in 909,000.


Asteroid "2003 QQ47" will be closely monitored over the next two months. Its potential strike date is March 21, 2014, but astronomers say that any risk of impact is likely to decrease as further data is gathered. On impact, it could have the effect of 20 million Hiroshima atomic bombs, a spokesman for the government's Near Earth Object Information Centre told BBC radio. The Centre issued the warning about the asteroid after the giant rock was first observed in New Mexico by the Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Programme. "The Near Earth Object will be observable from Earth for the next two months and astronomers will continue to track it over this period," said Dr Alan Fitzsimmons, one of the expert team advising the Centre.


Asteroids such as 2003 QQ47 are chunks of rock left over from the formation of the solar system 4.5 billion years ago. Most are kept at a safe distance from the Earth in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. But the gravitational influence of giant planets such as Jupiter can nudge asteroids out of these safe orbits and send them plunging towards Earth.

[wet1]

You know, Britian made a new government classification for the searching, locating, and the possible future elimination of NEO's (should there come the technology). The US seriously lacks in this department, relying solely on others or our own amatuers for the locating.

As you know the biggest fear isn't the one coming down the pipes from the outer planets that stands a good chance of being seen. It is the one that has come around and is hidden by the glare of the sun on its way out. One such asteroid was the reason for Britains responce. The asteroid came very close to the earth and was not discoved till after it had passed by.

The US's main responce to such NEO's is an automated survey, run by some advanced amatuers in Colorado ( if I remember rightly). At first they did pretty well in the location and finding of new stuff. It has sinced settled down and not much is heard from them. At the start they were naming asteriods at a fair pace.

I wish we could see such support here for a project of such nature from our own government. Those asteriods composed of ices and carbon are far harder to detect visually as they are dark in color and do not have a high reflection rate.

Since the forming of the British service several asteriods have been discovered in NEO's. Several have been spotted passing by, leaving the sun on the outbound journey. We are playing cosmic billiards and the earth is on the table waiting for another shot.

[certified psycho]

Astronomers monitoring near-Earth objects are playing down the chances of a newly discovered asteroid hitting Earth in 2014.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/3200019.stm

[eburacum45]

Right- let's think about these odds;
one in a million-
very low

and if it is a tenth the size of the Dino killer-

dinokiller asteroids hit the Earth about every hundred million years, but ones ten times smaller will be about ten times as frequent-
say every ten million years;
for every one that hits the Earth we will have a million that miss-

sooo,

that means we have had an asteroid this big come this close about every ten years or so - since the beginning of recorded history this has been going on, and none has hit the Earth.
we are in no danger, except from the media reaction.

However,
imagine the likely scenario,
coming to a planet near you
some time in 2014
as this asteroid gets nearer ...
when it is six months away
the orbital calculations show it has a 1 in 20 chance of hitting the earth, and a 1 in 5 chance of hitting a populated area if it does...
panic rises...
government denials are followed by confirmation of the facts...
chaos ensues...
rioting, religious mania...
you tell your boss to take a hike...
you tell the girl in the video shop you love her;
drunkeness, debauchery...

the asteroid misses...
red faces all round.

This scenario will be repeated every ten years or so until the NEO's are all grabbed and exploited by sky-mining companies that would be legally resposible in the event of an Earth Impact- they would pretty soon all be moved out of Earth-crossing orbits.
_________________
SF worldbuilding at
http://www.orionsarm.com/main.html

[Red Devil]

If its as big as they claim, your talking major destruction, possibly planet wide and at the least, choking atmosphere, tectonic plates up the spout, major earthquakes all over, no sun ............

[wet1]

This scenario will be repeated every ten years or so until the NEO's are all grabbed and exploited by sky-mining companies that would be legally resposible in the event of an Earth Impact- they would pretty soon all be moved out of Earth-crossing orbits.


Odds are always on the side of it missing, ask the dinosaurs, as one hit is all it takes...

Sky-mining companies? Not sure I understand what you are trying to say with that one. Maybe I am having a "blonde moment" here...

[curioucity]

scary...
and can't they just design something to break it into pieces if possible?

[blobrana]

The fact that 99.9% of all species that have existed on the Earth are now extinct, should be warning `us` that eventually one of the big killers will get us...

(it a nice party piece to remember them all)
;)

[Red Devil]

Originally posted by wet1
Odds are always on the side of it missing, ask the dinosaurs, as one hit is all it takes...

Sky-mining companies? Not sure I understand what you are trying to say with that one. Maybe I am having a "blonde moment" here...

Someone get out there and mine it into oblivion!!! Yeah right, how much rock is there comprising a half mile wide boulder??? The only way is to deflect it, outwards from the solar system by either Armaggedon tactics or fit it with giant engines??

[Mr. Horror]

Originally posted by eburacum45
[B]you tell your boss to take a hike...

haha sounds about right :D

[guthrie]

There was an article in new scientist a few months ago about it. You can use nukes, to deflect it, or else you might be able to coat it with tin foil and hte differeing reflectivity etc will deflect it. Or, like in at least one Arthur C clarke book, you land an ion engine on it, and over the next 6 months, alter its orbit enough so it misses. So for that to work, we need a year or more warning, so essentially the danger will eb greatest over the next 20 or 30 years, assuming we dont kill ourselves during that period. After that, I htink we'll have the technology and assets in place to be able to do a good job of deflecting something.

AS for mining, nobodys going ot mine asteroids unless it makes them money, so they need to find the expensive ones with gold and copper etc etc on them, not these carbonaceous chondrites and clumps of ice and dust. And we still ened to get out there, our autonomous robotic stuff isnt good enough to start mining asteroids yet.

[Red Devil]

Guthrie: we talking about the same asteroid here, 20 to 30 years? Like 21 March 2014 not 2041??? Using tinfoil eh? Einstein's theory of reflectivity?? ;)

[Pollux V]

Can't we just get rid of it now while we have the chance, so we don't forget about it, or possibly lose the capability in the future (through one means or another) to destroy it then? I don't care what you do with it, as long as it doesn't hit "my beloved."

[guthrie]

Yup, same asteroid, Im talking about our potential ability to intercept such asteroids. without a massive program, theres little chance of doing anything more than lobbing a few gigatonnes of nukes at it in 2014, which would likely be enough.

As for tin foil, I cant find the new scientist magazine I read it in. BAsically its about making one side more reflective or so, and therefore altering the orbit by the different reflectiveities or radiation wavelenghts or something, i forget what. It was more a theoretical idea, some thought it wouldnt work, some thought it wouldnt.

We cant get rid of it now, we need to have the nukes in space and work out the desired orbit. If we arent careful, if we nuked it now in teh wrong way, it would be altered enough so that it actually hits us next time round.

[Artimaru]

I seriously don't believe we are at risk.
With modern technology it would be quite easy
to repel or destory the asteriod.

[Pete]

Could it be done? Maybe, given enough time.

Easy? No way!

[eburacum45]

Asteroid alert downgraded
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

----------------
if there is risk later in the 21st century of a collision we should start moving it now- a little movement now will be thousands of miles in a few decades.
Even silicaceous asteroids are valuable, as sources for solar cell wafers - most of the energy required for life support and other functions will come from photovoltaics, as well as electrically powered ion engines; iron asteroids are valuable for construction, and the carbonaceous type will be valuable for the new carbon bucky fibre and diamondoid materials;
comets provide water ifyou can grab one; aluminium and oxygen make rocket propellant ...

it is all worth money- note I don't expect this to be exported to Earth, but to be used in space- although asteroid material which has no immediate value can be used as counterweight in rotating tether configurations, some of which will be carried to Earth eventually.
______________
SF worldbuilding at
http://www.orionsarm.com/main.html

[wet1]

Nothing about it would be easy. How do you move a rock the size of a state some where else? A nuke is just going to mess the surface up some, rest of it still there.

If that rock is moving at a good click of meters/feet per second, you also have to catch it. Thats not easy either.

Our nuclear missles. alas are designed to impact the earth, not something out in space. The guidance looks for satellite detection for location. Those satellites point down and send signal down, not up.

We simply don't have anything that we can rush out and pull out of the military garage designed to go after such. Probe missions with light weight probes are designed years in advance with one time design and build use. Nothing on the shelf there either.

I remember the tin foil article but not where it was. Basically if you have a lot of time, use the light pressure from the sun in lots of orbits of the asteroid to nudge it elsewhere out of the way. Thats not going to help with a short notice either. Not to mention we don't know for sure it will work as it hasn't been tried. Just that it might work.

[Red Devil]

Originally posted by guthrie
Yup, same asteroid, Im talking about our potential ability to intercept such asteroids. without a massive program, theres little chance of doing anything more than lobbing a few gigatonnes of nukes at it in 2014, which would likely be enough.

As for tin foil, I cant find the new scientist magazine I read it in. BAsically its about making one side more reflective or so, and therefore altering the orbit by the different reflectiveities or radiation wavelenghts or something, i forget what. It was more a theoretical idea, some thought it wouldnt work, some thought it wouldnt.

We cant get rid of it now, we need to have the nukes in space and work out the desired orbit. If we arent careful, if we nuked it now in teh wrong way, it would be altered enough so that it actually hits us next time round.

That depends on the mass of a half mile wide asteroid and the necessary impetus to divert it I would imagine - not being an engineer I would not know, and we have to get all the way out there first!!! It cannot be left till the "last minute"....

[curioucity]

okay, what can be the fastest way to whack it out?

[eburacum45]

There is no fast way to get rid of an asteroid which is feasible given our present stage of technology; nor will there be for several centuries, until we build a bank of massive lasers powered by collected sunlight;

there may even be ways of magnetising solar prominences to become massive lasers themselves, or superheating parts of the sun by mirrors until coherent light is emitted.

Such a hyperlaser could perhaps vapourise an asteroid, but this would sometimes simply mean a cloud of rapidly cooling rock pellets which would be even more difficult to stop.

The smart way would be to vapourise one side of the object, so that the vapour would act as a rocket and push the body in the opposite direction.

Soon we might be doing the same thing, but with strings of nuclear devices, detonated approx 40% the diameter of the object above the surface.
__________________
SF worldbuilding at
http://www.orionsarm.com/main.html

[Red Devil]

Originally posted by eburacum45
but this would sometimes simply mean a cloud of rapidly cooling rock pellets which would be even more difficult to stop.

Surely thats better than one big one? Most would burn up in the atmosphere, those that arrived that is, the rest would form an annual meteor shower of firework proportions surely?

[curioucity]

I agree. Small bodies need less heat to evaporate, right? Especially given that the surface area of the asteroid(s) increases a lot. Oh, and the first assault will have reduce the total mass of the asteroids as well. And the rock pellets may go in multiple directions..... and.....

[certified psycho]

i dunno i always thought that the earth would end some where around 2012

[Crushing Belial]

Why do people use the term Armageddon when talking of astroids? Armageddon in Hebrew Means (mount of megeddo) a place in Israel.

[blobrana]

It must be a cultural thing...Most people <i>know</i> that it means the end of the world...

Obviously the city megeddos just happened to be placed at a vital invasion route. And all `major` battles in those biblical times happened there; the suggestion that the final conflict between good and evil
would occur there was not too strange then.

Er, But we know better...

[curioucity]

Reminds me to all those screaming bout Yellowstone...