I probably know the answer but here it is: What is luckier, to win 1 million 7 times or to win 7 million once? (I am watching Lottery changed my life, and there is this guy who won 7 times although different amounts) By the way, yes, I know it depends on the odds of each game, so it is a cumulative odds thingy... Edit: For extra fun, let's say the cumulative odds of the 7 wins are exactly the same as the odds of the 1 game with the 7 million prize. Still, what would we consider luckier???
Are you saying winning seven games at once or cumalitively? Either way, winning once would most likely have better chances. 'Luck' is a figment of the human mind.
Luck is fortune in any language. You could say the guy who won and quit playing is more fortunate. He has the sence to be wise with his money after he gets it. But for mathmatical purposes winning the lottery seven times is decent odds for a case study.
We are in the Math section my dear. You flip a coin and your guess of Head comes up. Are you lucky? Not with your 50% chance of winning. Now you guess the 5 digits of Pick 5 correctly, that IS luck. By the way, to answer your question, cumulatively...
Well, at facevalue, if the chances of both events are the same, they have the same luck. To see it in a simpler form the question is equivalent of: What is luckier, to flip Head 7 times in a row, or to guess the number correctly out of 128 numbers? Since the odds of both events are the same, they are the same luck. But let's introduce something else into the problem. Let's say the 7 million winner played only once, and the other guy is most likely a frequent player. Unless he played only 7 times, he is less lucky, because he has been playing for a while. So beside the odds, the number of plays is also important. Another approach would be, how many of us would keep playing when winning 1-2-3 times already? So maybe beside luck one needs determination or stuborness.
In the sense of "breaking a mirror causes bad luck" or "if I keep my lucky ball bearing in my pocket when I buy the lottery ticket" is what I meant. The word 'luck' is thrown around too often.
I think the question in the OP is "which situation has the highest probability of happening?" 'Luck' is not a very good word to use in these types of questions.
With what the OP wrote for fun, the question is in fact: "which situation has the highest probability of happening?, assuming that the probabilities are the same"
Exactly. That way there is no point in asking the question. The question was what we would consider luckier, even if the probabilities are the same... By the way so far there wasn't even any response that could be considered as an answer...
A non-trivial interpretation of your question could be worded thusly: "Which scenario is more likely, to win a 1-in-a-million (1/1MM) shot 7 times in a row, or to win a 1-in-a-7 million (1/7MM) shot once?" Odds of hitting 1/1MM = .0001% Odds of hitting it twice in a row = .0000000001% Three times in a row = .0000000000000001% Seven times in a row = (.0001%)^7 = .0000000000000000000000000000000000000001% Odds of winning 1/7MM = .0000142% I hope the answer is clear: DON'T PLAY THE LOTTERY. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
I interpreted your question "non-trivially", as I said. The trivial interpretation of what you meant by "cumulative odds thingy" is that you want to know which is "luckier", an event A occurring with probability X or an event B occurring with probability X. This question does not deserve a response unless you're a child.
