What are the odds?

Discussion in 'Physics & Math' started by Orleander, Aug 27, 2009.

  1. Orleander OH JOY!!!! Valued Senior Member

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    My dad had 5 kids

    Me-got married, had a son. divorced. Got pregnant out of wedlock, had a daughter
    Brother-got pregnant out of wedlock, had a daughter, married had son. divorced. Got pregnant out of welock, had another daughter
    Brother-got pregnant out of wedlock, had a daughter, married had 5 sons
    Sister-got pregnant out of wedlock, had daughter
    Sister-got pregnant out of wedlock, had daughter

    Every daughter (6 of them) was from an out of wedlock pregnancy while every son (7 of them) wasn't.

    What are the odds?
     
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  3. jpappl Valued Senior Member

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    Were you and your sister born out of wedlock ?

    Oh and by the way CONDOMS ! LOL.

    Not saying the daughters aren't great. Just saying.
     
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  5. Dywyddyr Penguinaciously duckalicious. Valued Senior Member

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    I think either one of those would qualify for the Guinness Book of Records.

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    Mmm, Guinness. /drool.
     
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  7. spidergoat pubic diorama Valued Senior Member

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    1 in 2,097,152.
     
  8. AlphaNumeric Fully ionized Registered Senior Member

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    It depends entirely on how you go about computing things. For instance, if you say "13 children are born, 6 girls, 7 boys. 6 children are to be born in wedlock, 7 outside of wedlock. What's the probability of those 7 being all boys?" then your answer will be different from "13 children are born. 6 children are to be born in wedlock, 7 outside of wedlock. What's the probability of those 7 being all boys?", which is also different from "13 children are born to various couples whose martial status is constantly changing. What's the probability those born in wedlock are all of the same gender? What's the probability those out of wedlock are also all of the same (but different) gender?". In that last case it obviously various as you vary the number of births too.

    Assuming the people in question were always going to have their divorces and marriages (ie having or not having kids made no difference) and those 13 kids were inevitable, then you're asking what the probability of the 7 kids in wedlock were all of the same gender and the other 6 of the other gender. Probability of 7 particular births being male is \(2^{7}\) and the other 6 being female \(2^{6}\). Though if the genders were swapped you'd still be wondering the same thing so you have twice the chance so you get a 1 in \(2^{12} = 4096\) chance.
     
  9. Pete It's not rocket surgery Registered Senior Member

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    Here's something else to think about:
    Out of thirteen successful pregnancies, what are the odds that you'll find some feature common to all the pregnancies with female babies, butnone of the pregnancies with male babies?

    In this case, the feature is "conceived out of wedlock"... but how many other features of conception, pregnancy, and birth can you think of?
     
  10. Orleander OH JOY!!!! Valued Senior Member

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    ummm, none. I didn't even notice it til her sisters made a big deal about my Mom being the only one who had granddaughters. She told them the way to get them is to not teach your kids about birth control.

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  11. Pete It's not rocket surgery Registered Senior Member

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    I don't mean features that actually match up in this case... I mean features that you (or someone else in the family) might have noticed if they did match up.
     

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