WATER SCARCITY IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

Category 1: These countries face "absolute water scarcity." They will not be able to meet water needs in the year 2025.



Category 2: These countries face "economic water scarcity." They must more than double their efforts to extract water to meet 2025 water needs, but they will not have the financial resources available to develop these water supplies.



Category 3: These countries have to increase water development between 25 and 100 percent to meet 2025 needs, but have more financial resources to do so.



Category 4: These countries will have to increase water development modestly overall * on average, by only five percent * to keep up with 2025 demands.



*These countries have severe regional water scarcity. A portion of their populations (381 million people in China in 1990 and 280 million people in India in 1990) * are in Category 1. The rest of their populations are in Category 4.



Country Groups

Category 1

(absolute water scarcity)



Afghanistan

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Libya

Oman

Pakistan

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

South Africa

Syria

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

(China)*

(India)*

Category 2

(economic water scarcity)



Angola

Benin

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cameroon

Chad

Congo

Cote d'Ivoire

Ethiopia

Gabon

Ghana

Guinea-Bissau

Haiti

Lesotho

Liberia

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

Paraguay

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

Zaire

Category 3



Albania

Algeria

Australia

Belize

Bolivia

Brazil

Cambodia

Central African Republic

Chile

Colombia

El Salvador

Gambia

Guatemala

Guinea

Honduras

Indonesia

Kenya

Lebanon

Madagascar

Malaysia

Mali

Mauritania

Morocco

Myanmar

Namibia

Nepal

New Zealand

Nicaragua

Peru

Senegal

Tanzania

Turkey

Venezuela

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Category 4



Argentina

Austria

Bangladesh

Belgium

Bulgaria

Canada

(China)*

Costa Rica

Cuba

Denmark

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Guyana

Hungary

(India)*

Italy

Jamaica

Japan

Mexico

Netherlands

North Korea

Norway

Panama

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Romania

South Korea

Spain

Sri Lanka

Surinam

Sweden

Switzerland

Thailand

UK

Uruguay

USA

Vietnam

What do you think the political, economic, and social implications of these future water shortages may be?

(Note: I don't remember where I got the statistics from, since they've been sitting on my computer for months now, collected for a project I was working on.)

water shortage? im sitting on top of an aquifer that stretches from here to christchurch.

Deleted

Bullshit Ronnie. It was a dry summer. That isn't the same as water shortage.

Why's Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay on that list when:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/08/060828-guarani.html

Conspiracists Allege U.S. Seizing Vast S. American Reservoir

Stretching beneath parts of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, the Guaraní Aquifer is an underground system of water-bearing rock layers covering 460,000 square miles (1.2 million square kilometers)—an area larger than Texas and California combined.

The International Atomic Energy Agency says the Guaraní may be big enough to supply drinking water to 360 million people on a sustainable basis.

???

Well, other than the U.S. supposedly seizing it, heh. Surely that's enough water for those countries past the year 2025?

- N

Finland. land of 100.000 lakes. (in reality more actually)

Deleted

know the difference between structural and temporary scarceties, ronnie.

Deleted

also, the netherlands have a difficult time keeping water OUT of their cities. they wont have to develop jack shit to meet their water demands.
*edit: oops..saw they were in category 4.

salt water is generally not good for consumption

Perkele.

Whether or not I know the difference is beside the point.

I reported the disposition of those concerned, in situ.

Are you really so hard up for mud to sling, to have to turn this into a personal issue?

--- Ron.

No, i am just pointing out how dumb you are.

The water scarcity mentioned in the first post is a structural problem. A dry summer is a seasonal problem.

It's not that difficult to be logical. If you try. And have a brain.

salt water is generally not good for consumption
a single desalinization plant would take care of the problem for the entire nation.

money is better spend om big guns

Deleted

With water shortgages already experienced it makes sense to look to see what already happens.

--- Ron.

You just repeated you dumbass comment again. How dumb can you be?

Deleted

The topic was water, not me.

--- Ron.

haha...you said the topic is water.

Now they will ban you.

---------
Next year headlines. Wet summer in Finland. Hydroplants cannot cope with water flow. Lakes rise to highest point ever. The expert Ronnie claims water is scarce.

Next year headlines. Wet summer in Finland. Hydroplants cannot cope with water flow. Lakes rise to highest point ever. The expert Ronnie claims water is scarce.

Care to place a bet on that, money where mouth is?

-- Ron.

haha...you said the topic is water.

Now they will ban you.

BWWAAAAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAAA!!!!

Care to place a bet on that, money where mouth is?

-- Ron.
dont delude yourself. you know that none of us want to see you in person to collect.

What do you think the political, economic, and social implications of these future water shortages may be?

(Note: I don't remember where I got the statistics from, since they've been sitting on my computer for months now, collected for a project I was working on.)

Water is running out and being replaced by bottled water and coke as we speak. My suggestion, prepare yourself for it, even in America it's happening. Tap water is not clean, you'll have to get a water distiller. My advice? Buy a solar water distiller.

dont delude yourself. you know that none of us want to see you in person to collect.

Are you not allowed to own a bank account?

--- Ron.

Are you not allowed to own a bank account?

--- Ron.
i do not support corporate criminals, sorry.

monkey is correct anyhow.

oh, and by the way: shut up.

Precipitation remains the same
The amounts of precipitation of 1961-90 are very similar to the ones in 1971-2000.

http://www.fmi.fi/weather/climate_6.html#8


give me my money

Deleted

I think we should ignore the fresh water shortages around the world in the same way as we've ignored the global warming bullshit .....just put it on "ignore". Ain't that easier than facing the issue?

Baron Max

Your issue was "Next year headlines", not old news.

--

dumbass. Nobody can predict next years weather. My prediction shows just how silly you are by assigning a structural significance to a seasonal trend.

Israel is in:

Category 1: These countries face "absolute water scarcity." They will not be able to meet water needs in the year 2025.

Israel has salt-water desalination plant in late stages of construction, (if not functioning already), but fresh water from the sea is expensive, relative to from an aquifer. The main under utilized aquifer is the "mountain aquifer" and (MHO) that is what is causing the "security wall" to be pushing deep into the west bank lands of the Palestinians. The expanding de facto new borders of Israel are not a "land grab," they are a "water grab."

Because Israel will very likely be able to keep the land added by the "security wall" and because Israel can build more (and afford) desalination plants, IMHO, Israel does not belong in "Category 1." i.e. in 2025 Israel will have plenty of water to drink and most of its agricultural needs will also be supplied at an affordable price, or food and fiber will be imported (perhaps from Brazil) to meet their needs.

Palestine, if such a state exists then, is an entirely different story. IMHO, some Palestinians will be dying for lack of clean water in 2025*. IMHO, few understand how water is a major part of the current conflict between Palestine and Israel.
--------------------------------------------------
*Some are dying today, but that is a temporary problem Israel created by destroying the power plants that ran well pumps and forced some sewerage treatment plants to close and dump raw sewerage into the sea or streets if no pipe to sea existed.

Deleted

It is impossible to predict water level's in 2025.

Ok, maybe I shouldn't have put up that list, or I should have linked to one of the three dozen or so .pdf files I have on the subject.

I was speaking in terms of global trends caused by upcoming water shortages. What kinds of conflicts will arise, emigration, economic recession, etc... What do you think?

It is impossible to predict water level's in 2025.

By the same logic, isn't it impossible to predict the rising global warming, too? Or any other natural occurence?

I seem to recall a pretty indepth study of the world's water supply problems in a Nat'l Geo article that was quite interesting and informative. I was amazed, for example, just how much fresh water is used by the citizens of New York City and Los Angeles, among others.

Another thing that was quite informative is the fact that, while there might be a large body of fresh water nearby, it might be so polluted that one can't even use it without major and expensive water treatment plants ....which most backward nations don't have in abundance. What to do then?

Baron Max

It is impossible to predict water level's in 2025.

Not only that, it is impossible to know what our water needs will be in 2025. If they are using population growth trends of the past century as a guide, they are going to be off by quite a bit. All indications are that the population curve is going to level off in the near future. I think a few European countries actually had declines in the last census due to emmigration.

They also assume that the technology is going to stay the same for 19 years? Man... look where computers have gone in 19 years. And battery technology, and solar panels. I've worked with a ton of desalination machines on yachts, and they are extremely simple affairs. You just need a membrane and a high-pressure pump. If we can make a $100 laptop today, and personal desalinators already exist which require manual pumping, and 75% of the Earth is salt-water... well, then I have to say this is just more fear-mongering that goes straight to headline, bypassing all reason and peer-review.

...and 75% of the Earth is salt-water... well, then I have to say this is just more fear-mongering that goes straight to headline, bypassing all reason and peer-review.

Hmm, interesting. But then, how do we get the water from the ocean's shore to, say, 1,500 miles over the Rocky Mountains to the American plains? That's one helluva monumental task of pumps and pipes, ain't it? And what do we use for fuel/energy for that task? And how do we pay for that monumental effort? Hmm, is it fear-mongering?

Baron Max

Hmm, interesting. But then, how do we get the water from the ocean's shore to, say, 1,500 miles over the Rocky Mountains to the American plains? That's one helluva monumental task of pumps and pipes, ain't it? And what do we use for fuel/energy for that task? And how do we pay for that monumental effort? Hmm, is it fear-mongering?

Baron Max

We can distribute Coca-Cola all over the planet, and you are saying that when people are thirsting to death, we will have to throw our hands up and resign ourselves to a hellish parched state?

As a species, we survived a period of drinking out of natural streams and muddy puddles. I swear, the fear mongers are the dumbest and least imaginative lot...

We can distribute Coca-Cola all over the planet, and you are saying that when people are thirsting to death, we will have to throw our hands up and resign ourselves to a hellish parched state?

What about water to bath and perform surgical operations? And are you going to dump bottled water all over the land so as to grow vegatables to eat and to irrigate grasslands to feed the cattle that we eat? That's a damned, damned expensive dinner, ain't it? What does bottled water cost these days, anyway ....$8-10 per gallon?

As a species, we survived a period of drinking out of natural streams and muddy puddles.

I think that was before the streams and lakes were contaminated with colera, typhoid and other horrid, deadly diseases. Would you drink from a stream today???

I swear, the fear mongers are the dumbest and least imaginative lot...

Well, I agree to some extent. But in this instance, you've not adequately addressed many of those concerns, yet ye're calling others dumb and unimaginative? Hmm?

Baron Max

What about water to bath and perform surgical operations? And are you going to dump bottled water all over the land so as to grow vegatables to eat and to irrigate grasslands to feed the cattle that we eat? That's a damned, damned expensive dinner, ain't it? What does bottled water cost these days, anyway ....$8-10 per gallon?

about 70 cents, u.s. money equivalent....here in europe.

...I've worked with a ton of desalination machines on yachts, and they are extremely simple affairs. You just need a membrane and a high-pressure pump....I have never seen the type you refer to. The ones the US navy uses are steel tube filled with thousands of "U" shaped very small diameter membrane "straws." The high pressure salt water is on the outside of the straws and both ends pass thru the single pressure plate. I am not sure, but think that for submarine use you may not even need the pump - just dive down and let the sea water in to surround the outside of the "U straws." The fresh water comes slowly out of both ends of the straws, which are at the internal presure of the submarine as is the entire inside of the straw.

If you put such a unit very deep and had a tube to the surface filled with fresh water the presure on the inside of the straws would be less than on the outside and this pressure difference increases lineraly with depth so could drive some pure H2O into the inside of the straw, from the sea, if unit is deep enough. It is hard to believe, but true that you need not apply any energy to have a small fresh water fountain in the middle of the deep ocean! If the top of the fountain were say 5 feet above the sea level, the falling water could turn a turbine and yield energy also. - Energy and fresh water in the middle of the ocean with no appearant consumption of energy seem to violate a lot of conservation laws, but it does not. I will let someone else tell why this works (I know, but why spoil the fun, now?)

BTW swivel, If you know, how many grams of H2O do you get for a kilo Joule of energy (for the pump)?

I have never seen the type you refer to.

There are small Reverse Osmosis units that can do this, not to sure how effiecient they are though.

The point is predicting water levels and drought situations even 2-5yrs. from now with meaningfull accuracy would prophetic.

This issue was raised about fifteen years ago. It's been predicted that the wars of the future will be fought over water rather than oil.

A device called the "watercone" and various other names was recently invented. A small plastic solar distillation device that will evaporate and recondense a liter of pure water per day out of just about anything, even wastewater. That's pretty close to one person's subsistence allotment. It could be manufactured profitably in India or China and sold for less than five dollars in the Third World. Admittedly that's still a lot of money in those places but Bill Gates and Warren Buffett could buy one for everybody.

Hydrologists have discovered a reservoir deep underground--I'm talking about a couple of thousand feet down--that holds literally something like a hundred-year supply of water for the planet's entire population. Guess where it is? Under Iraq.

Well, admittedly there are technical ways of getting around water shortage in the next century, but somehow I doubt the necessary steps will be taken to ensure that what needs to be done, is done.

Somehow I'll figure out a way to link it to you guys, but I have a .pdf file of a report issued by the National War College in 2002 or 2003 (I think. 2002 is the latest date mentioned.) which cites water shortages in the Third World, and even in portions of the First World, as still a major issue that needs to be dealt with. Like I said, I'll try and figure out a way to link it to you guys. I have something like two dozen (at least) .pdf files regarding future water shortages, all of them dating to within a decade from now. Most of the sources seem to be of high repute.