View Full Version : Wagon-Circling and Other Poll Manipulation


Pangloss
07-04-04, 10:37 AM
One of the thing that I think has happened as a result of Clinton AND as a result of the *existence* of polls and approval ratings is that when Clinton was under fire, liberals *and moderates* participated in circling the wagons. One clear indicator of this is the way Clinton's poll numbers have dropped substantially since he left office. People no longer feel the need to support the guy.

I'm sure that had a lot to do with the fact that the impeachment was a ridiculous business that went way too far. People GOT that, and they circled the wagons. Clinton ended up leaving office with screaming approval numbers.

Now I think we're seeing the same sort of wagon-circling happen with Bush. Conservatives feel he's unfairly abused, and they rally around. Of course, his approval ratings are lower than Clinton's were during the impeachment. Perhaps that reflects the fact that the charges against Bush are perceived by the moderate mainstream as more legitimate.

Now compare all this with Nixon and Carter. Their poll numbers during trials that were arguably *less* unpopular than Watergate or Iran-Hostage resulted in approval ratings in the TWENTIES. Nixon and Carter both left office with ratings of around 25%!

Bush is looking at something like 45-50% right now. But *why*? I've *never* seen the country so divided, and people so upset about an administration. I've studied the Watergate years and the Carter presidency quite a bit, and I think Bush is MORE under fire than either Nixon or Carter ever were.

I think we're seeing a trend in popular opinion. People are aware of polls and approval ratings, and they adjust their answers to questions according to how they feel things *should* be perceived.

hypewaders
07-04-04, 03:02 PM
"People are aware of polls and approval ratings, and they adjust their answers to questions according to how they feel things *should* be perceived."

Yes, and it's much like a herd in its collective momentum. Many Americans just want to be seen backing a winner, and don't spend a lot of time thinking about how politics will affect their own futures. As momentum builds against this administration, millions lacking well-considered convictions will turn away from the incumbent the moment it appears likely he will lose. We are approaching that point.