We seem to have a good number of economic prophets who claim expertise well beyond the average economic advisor or insiders, like Ken Bernanke, Tim Geithner, and retired insiders, like David Gergen. So with that, it would be interesting to see links to specific predictions made by SF experts that came true when predicted. My experience over the last 30+ years says that my select Washington insiders do a pretty good job. They don't claim to be prophets, but they have long provided me with a reasonably accurate perspective on the significant issues long enough for me to gauge their success. What I see here at SF, frankly, sounds like nonsense. For starters, every doomsdayer's prediction that I've heard over the course of my life has proven to be wrong. So, given a track record of 0 hits in 40 years or so [of awareness in these matters], I tend to feel safe assuming that most doomsdayers are crackpots. So prove me wrong. Show me the specific evidence for prophecies, for major economic events, that have come true. Also, please show that this was not anticipated by Washington insiders and economists in general - that it wasn't already expected by others. For example, can anyone show posts arguing that credit default swaps posted a siginficant risk to the global economy, in 2007?
