Newsweek (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12413470/site/newsweek/page/2/)

it’s worth considering that Iran’s assertiveness in regional and world affairs seems, quite literally, to follow the market. When the Shah depended on the CIA in 1953 (and the barrel of oil was priced in pennies) he was a more-or-less craven ally. Two decades later, flush with petro-dollars, he was a raving imperialist, who later started Iran’s nuclear program. So, too, with the mullahs. When oil prices were astronomical in the early 1980s, ayatollahs were looking to spread their revolution far and wide. When the price had sunk to about $10 a barrel in the late 1990s, reformists were ascendant in Tehran, and wanted to accommodate the West almost any way they could.

More recently, on the nuclear front, when the mullahs agreed to freeze their enrichment research in 2003, the average price of oil was about $30 a barrel. They again started up nuclear fuel enrichment activities—the same process that can be used to make fissionable material for atomic weapons—last year when the price of oil had reached $50. By the time they announced earlier this month that they’d succeeded with enrichment, oil prices were on their way to $70. Tensions drive up the cost of oil, international pressure inspires Iranian nationalism and increased revenues underwrite the mullahs’ ability to resist.

I think the pattern is obvious, while the Iranians preach this, or that, they are completely dependant on their oil sales to the Great Satan’s of the World (presently the USA and China) for any semblance of an economy. Does anyone here think that the ME can pull its finger out? No bloody way. If anything they will use this extra money to prop up their archaic systems of governance, continuing to co-op Islam as their cultural epicentre.


My prediction over the next 100 years:
- Oil inflated bankbooks will make for oil inflated egos and an even more belligerent Iran.
- The ruling Mullahs will probably think this monetary windfall is all due to Gods plan and will either make threats to, or be cantankerous towards, the USA, China, India …..basically anyone who is not Shia Islamic.
- The world seriously starts moving into other energy forms.
- The ME will invest in securing Islamic as its epicenter. The philosophy of Islam will probably put it at odds with China, USA, India, basically everyone that does not want to convert to Islam.
- The oil run dry and when the tipping point hits the regimes very quickly collapse.
- Sadly, because of their government’s belligerence, the ME will be made the total scapegoat for global warming.
- The ME will again be poor and the people will get radicalized and this time around their will be no oil and so no incentive to do anything.
- This is when, I think, Israel will make a move to secure more land (Greater Israel) and you know, no one will really care.

How to prevent this?
Become secular democracies, invest in higher education, and allow freedom of expression.

Those are the 3 antithesis to Islam, which is the epicenter of these societies. That’s really why I don’t think much can be done to help the ME and why we should leave well enough alone and if anything should have spent our 1 trillion dollars not on the shit hole Iraq but on energy independence, which the Bush government showed could be accomplished by 2025 with NO new technologies, but decided to invest almost no political time and effort into until recently.

Well that’s my rant fort the day
:D
Michael

nice rant. I also believe that it was a huge mistake to spend so much on iraq. Imagine what $10 billion a month could have accomplished in the US instead of dumping it in iraq. who knows, we may have been able to advance technology enough to become energy-independent.

I think it would be funny if we invented some tech that made oil obsolete as far as energy goes. it would totally make the middle east implode.

Just one thing wrong with your esay, IRAN DOES NOT SELL OIL TO USA IT HASNT FOR YEARS, so keep your greenback mate.

Just one thing wrong with your esay, IRAN DOES NOT SELL OIL TO USA IT HASNT FOR YEARS, so keep your greenback mate.DO you think that Iran the worlds 2nd largest oil exporter and the USA the worlds largest oil importer don't effect one another? Then where did that 60 billion dollar surplus in Iran come from? I read in the economist, that about 65% of Iran’s oil via Russia goes to the USA.

Anyway, the point is mute, Iran's is part of OPEC and Iranian oil is traded in US dollars freely on the open market, within which, obviously the USA buys oil. So it matters not if the USA buys energy directly from Iran or via an intermediary. The end result is exactly the same.

So stop buying it if you dont like it!!!!
The only parts of ME that will become insignificant are those little Consumer kingdoms that you call friends,Iran has as high a literacy rate as that of USA, 52% of uni students are female and it regulary beats USA in the Maths,and sience olympiads.
So you are very ill informed if you think all of ME will go down the path that you mentioned.

So stop buying it if you dont like it!!!! :bugeye:

This doesn't really address the hypothesis in anyway.

You do agree that Iran's economy is completely dependant on selling oil?

Iran has been dependent on selling oil for over 50 years. Why would things change just when oil is starting to really generate some serious profit? Things may have had a chance to change if Iran was not making so much money from selling oil. But all that money is going to entrench the ruling elite. There will be little if any incentive to transform into a secular democracy or allow freedom of expression. As such, Iran will become more not less dependant on oil. But oil will not last forever. It is a limited resource.　When it runs out that’s it.

As such, Iran will become more not less dependant on oil. But oil will not last forever. It is a limited resource.　When it runs out that’s it.

Maybe Iran's economy is dependent on oil, but so is that of the US. When it runs out that's it.

We are all in the same boat? And nobody is doing anything about it. I liked the earlier remark of not spending 10billion in the ME but invest it back home. Invest it in new technology. And not weapons technology. :rolleyes:

But that will never happen of course.

excellent rant.
I especially like: "Become secular democracies, invest in higher education, and allow freedom of expression."

Dates. The future is the entirely wrong kind of dates- blind ones on your wedding night ya himaar. The good news is, we're not done yet. The bad news from Arabia is (notice the lack of family name to a wealthy country)... the bad news is, we're pissed, Cowboys.

So we sell it all to China, and halt your American recklessness with a crushing economic blow, historic enough to make 1973 seem like $100 barrels seem now (which will seem very reasonable in 1 year or less).

How will the ME be after oil? First, we're going to divest from the USA, and rip out a nice 15% chunk of the economy overnight. Yes, Habeeeby.

To the non-Americans here: Let's please hear (here) about hot investments: I've got the money, Honey (if you got the time). Never mind all this going on, Americans. How many billions can be made shamelessly exploiting an accurate foreknowledge of a long tumble into rapid inflation. Ear-popping inflation.

With a bang. (Sorry) ....not. If you want to build a better future, you've gotta break a few sick empires. That's just history 101- and nothing personal, my friend. You must remember this: A kissss is still a kiss.

hypewaders, I think the USA has many other options while the ME only really has oil.

I’ve said this a number of times but really, the USA has access to both the Atlantic and the Pacific, it sits in the ideal climate zoom for agriculture, has the most arable land, the largest fresh water supply, the oldest constitution still in use, a strong sense of democracy, and strong infrastructure, strong work ethic, separation of religion and government. I’m positive it will be fine after the oil crunch.

Also, those people in the ME that have invested in the USA are not going to seriously divest. It isn’t going to happen. If you think the USA would allow for anyone to “rip out a nice 15% chunk of the economy overnight” your smoking crack. All they’d have to do is prevent it from happening. Pass a law.
Further, think of this %15, the only way you could “rip” 15% out is to sell said 15% to someone willing to buy said 15%.
Nothing actually leaves.

Also, note, the ME could try and do something here, but pumping Oil from the ground is too easy a way to make mega $$ from - I suppose Oil fits the old double edged cliché.

oil's more a burden than a boon.

Will it make any differences to places like Dubai?

I think it would be funny if we invented some tech that made oil obsolete as far as energy goes.

uuuhhh there allready is...and it does :)....much cleaner too.

I rember hearing about this Saudi saying:

My Father rode a camel
I ride in a car
My son flies a fighter jet
His son will ride a camel

Will it make any differences to places like Dubai?Good question.
It's hard to say.

Interesting quote, Odin. I think it's true, except that the bonanza years have now touched 3 generations. But in post-Saudi, post-petroleum Arabia even the Bedouin may be under pressure of unprecedented drought. So the future may not be dates or even camels. Arabia will be all done putting on heirs, because they may find themselves (thousands of Sa'uds) exiled and/or dead. The Empty Quarter (Arabia's outback) may come to be considered more literally, and expand into all of the peninsula but the Holy Cities, Gulf Megalopolis, Red Sea resorts, and Yemeni mountains.

A slowly rolling dead sea of sand, monstrous-marching waves occasionally flashing glimpses of decaying rigs and pipelines at the uncaring stars. Oh well, at least no sandworms, my friend.

:rolleyes:
I don't think it'll get THAT hot? Maybe a degree or two?