nico
05-27-03, 03:46 PM
Is it really possible, that China could totally replace the US as the world's premier, economic, military, and polictical force? With a population of 1.2 billion, with a economy that grows at a rate of 8+% per annum. A increasing consumerist society and a stanch communist party is she on the cusp of becoming the world's most powerful state?
Reason as to why?
China has always in her history been one step ahead of the rest of the world. It wasn't until the rape of China in the late 1800's that China began her slow and painful decline. By 1912 the Qing empire had collapsed due to general anger on the way the west had controlled the country. At her height pre-1840 China had a vast empire rivaling any in the world. From the Pamirs in Central Asia to the Himalaya's in the south, the Mongolians plains in the north, Tuva in modern day Russia, the Maritime territory which is now mostly the Primoskye region in E.Russia. But the British through her un-abashed imperialism had in two wars degraded China into a second rate power. In 1895 the Japanese took important off shore islands and estbalished a shpere of influence in Fujian. 1899 was a turning point the empires last stand the Boxer rebellion, which they had lost. By 1911 Most of China was really under European, and Japanese control. By 1924 after the fall of the empire China had really been reduced to half her former size, the Tannu-Tuva region gone "independant" and became communist, Outer Mongolia was now a "independant" communist state, E.Turkestan became pseudo-independant, and Tibet. Macau, Hong Kong, Tsingao, and Port Arthur were under direct foreign control . In 1927 the nationalists (Kumingtang) took over China and a era of conflict btwn the communists and Nationalists began .
The low points:
By 1931 Manchuria was invaded only to degrade China further, 1932 Jehol, and 1937 the second Sino-Japanese war had began. By 1942 China had reached a low point. And Japan was never really routed out of China in 1945. With 11 million dead civies in the war, all of Asia began to make a dramatic shift in ideology. Communism.
The rebirth:
The Chinese country was dis-organized by a inept leadership under the Nationalists. They began a civial war again in 1945, and by 1949 the Nationalist's had been totally routed out of power. With them the Nationalist's took most the countries wealth to the island fortress known as Taiwan (Formosa). With new leadership the Chinese had to start anew. With their leader Mao Ze-tung the Chinese began to build a "paradise". By 1957 Mao decided that China had to beat the UK in steel production in 5 years! We all know the toll, 30 million dead, forests destroyed and the steel was brittle. After 5 years of free economy in China the Cultural revoultion began in 1967 to destroy any idea of anti-communism. It wasn't until Mao's death in 1976 that China really began to experiance the growth nesscary to change the world forever.
The change!!!
After Mao had died and the mourning period was overcome, the Chinese communist party realized that... Marxist- Leninsim wasn't working. China now being allied in essence with the US and the most powerful alliance in more than a quarter century the Chinese began to see the economic morass that the USSR was in. After 70 years of Central Planning, and the massive amounts of capital poured into the military-industrial complex in the USSR, Deng Xiaoping realized something had to happen. The West was only to eager to open up China, a 1 billion people market. China opened up, and the new government realized that the economy came first. By the early 80's Special economic zones were set up. With that wages went up, growth shocked everyone, and the once rural China was making a fateful shift to the cities. But the State Organized factories and industry fail and the Chinese government began a slow process of closing them. Meanwhile the USSR was crumbling, did the bastion of communism die?
Le nuveau International
China had by 1989 become a powerhouse, growing at up to 20% in the early 80's to the low double digits into the high single ones by the time Gorbachev came to China. Gorbachev came at a time of great social mallaise, the new economic growth made the population want more political freedom. As we all know the Televised Massacre at Tiananmen Square gave China a still communist feel to the government. But countries weren't eager to slap on sanctions on the world's fastest gorwing economy. Gorbachev went to China to see a fellow communist state was doing so well? Timing and good market planning was the key to China's economic success. Another reason was that most of China's population wasn't factory workers never mind a urbanite, so growth was possible. By Jan.1 1992 the long time enemy of the Chinese was dead the USSR legally ceased to exist. And the new communism began.
The last 10 years
China still was growing at very high growth rates, 8%. In 1991 China's GDP was $418 billion, by 2002 it was a amazing $6 trillion. Becoming the world's second largest economy. China in the last ten years realized that the west was largely closed in terms of military hardware. So where else to buy good cheap arms than the fmr. USSR. China also began to re-militarize. She in 1997 even showed her muscles in the Formosa straights, and again in the 2001 election in Taiwan. The Chinese have also began a ambitious plan to open up the interior of the country by using internal waterways and the most ambitious dam being the massive Three gorges dam, which would provide 1/9 of China's energy. The Chinese have been in recent times have been a little less successful with the SARS scare being hidden for months. The communist party shows that she is still same ole same ole when it comes to the politics of the country.
The future
In the next 15 years China will excede the US in terms of GDP, that dosen't mean she will be as powerful. But China is quickly becoming so affluent that cars are replacing bikes in Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Just look at the Crude oil use in China since 1980:
1980:1,765 million barrels a day.
1990: 2,380
2001:4,975
Only to increase, China is already begining to comtemplate moving into Burma. China will not open up policitcally and they will begin to replace the US influence in the Arab world. The Chinese will become so powerful by 2050 that Taiwan would suffer economicly when most of her semi-conductors would be going to China! Relations with the US will become strained but not close to the point of the USSR and the USA. So is China going to replace the American hegemon, or will it be yet another cold war?
Reason as to why?
China has always in her history been one step ahead of the rest of the world. It wasn't until the rape of China in the late 1800's that China began her slow and painful decline. By 1912 the Qing empire had collapsed due to general anger on the way the west had controlled the country. At her height pre-1840 China had a vast empire rivaling any in the world. From the Pamirs in Central Asia to the Himalaya's in the south, the Mongolians plains in the north, Tuva in modern day Russia, the Maritime territory which is now mostly the Primoskye region in E.Russia. But the British through her un-abashed imperialism had in two wars degraded China into a second rate power. In 1895 the Japanese took important off shore islands and estbalished a shpere of influence in Fujian. 1899 was a turning point the empires last stand the Boxer rebellion, which they had lost. By 1911 Most of China was really under European, and Japanese control. By 1924 after the fall of the empire China had really been reduced to half her former size, the Tannu-Tuva region gone "independant" and became communist, Outer Mongolia was now a "independant" communist state, E.Turkestan became pseudo-independant, and Tibet. Macau, Hong Kong, Tsingao, and Port Arthur were under direct foreign control . In 1927 the nationalists (Kumingtang) took over China and a era of conflict btwn the communists and Nationalists began .
The low points:
By 1931 Manchuria was invaded only to degrade China further, 1932 Jehol, and 1937 the second Sino-Japanese war had began. By 1942 China had reached a low point. And Japan was never really routed out of China in 1945. With 11 million dead civies in the war, all of Asia began to make a dramatic shift in ideology. Communism.
The rebirth:
The Chinese country was dis-organized by a inept leadership under the Nationalists. They began a civial war again in 1945, and by 1949 the Nationalist's had been totally routed out of power. With them the Nationalist's took most the countries wealth to the island fortress known as Taiwan (Formosa). With new leadership the Chinese had to start anew. With their leader Mao Ze-tung the Chinese began to build a "paradise". By 1957 Mao decided that China had to beat the UK in steel production in 5 years! We all know the toll, 30 million dead, forests destroyed and the steel was brittle. After 5 years of free economy in China the Cultural revoultion began in 1967 to destroy any idea of anti-communism. It wasn't until Mao's death in 1976 that China really began to experiance the growth nesscary to change the world forever.
The change!!!
After Mao had died and the mourning period was overcome, the Chinese communist party realized that... Marxist- Leninsim wasn't working. China now being allied in essence with the US and the most powerful alliance in more than a quarter century the Chinese began to see the economic morass that the USSR was in. After 70 years of Central Planning, and the massive amounts of capital poured into the military-industrial complex in the USSR, Deng Xiaoping realized something had to happen. The West was only to eager to open up China, a 1 billion people market. China opened up, and the new government realized that the economy came first. By the early 80's Special economic zones were set up. With that wages went up, growth shocked everyone, and the once rural China was making a fateful shift to the cities. But the State Organized factories and industry fail and the Chinese government began a slow process of closing them. Meanwhile the USSR was crumbling, did the bastion of communism die?
Le nuveau International
China had by 1989 become a powerhouse, growing at up to 20% in the early 80's to the low double digits into the high single ones by the time Gorbachev came to China. Gorbachev came at a time of great social mallaise, the new economic growth made the population want more political freedom. As we all know the Televised Massacre at Tiananmen Square gave China a still communist feel to the government. But countries weren't eager to slap on sanctions on the world's fastest gorwing economy. Gorbachev went to China to see a fellow communist state was doing so well? Timing and good market planning was the key to China's economic success. Another reason was that most of China's population wasn't factory workers never mind a urbanite, so growth was possible. By Jan.1 1992 the long time enemy of the Chinese was dead the USSR legally ceased to exist. And the new communism began.
The last 10 years
China still was growing at very high growth rates, 8%. In 1991 China's GDP was $418 billion, by 2002 it was a amazing $6 trillion. Becoming the world's second largest economy. China in the last ten years realized that the west was largely closed in terms of military hardware. So where else to buy good cheap arms than the fmr. USSR. China also began to re-militarize. She in 1997 even showed her muscles in the Formosa straights, and again in the 2001 election in Taiwan. The Chinese have also began a ambitious plan to open up the interior of the country by using internal waterways and the most ambitious dam being the massive Three gorges dam, which would provide 1/9 of China's energy. The Chinese have been in recent times have been a little less successful with the SARS scare being hidden for months. The communist party shows that she is still same ole same ole when it comes to the politics of the country.
The future
In the next 15 years China will excede the US in terms of GDP, that dosen't mean she will be as powerful. But China is quickly becoming so affluent that cars are replacing bikes in Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Just look at the Crude oil use in China since 1980:
1980:1,765 million barrels a day.
1990: 2,380
2001:4,975
Only to increase, China is already begining to comtemplate moving into Burma. China will not open up policitcally and they will begin to replace the US influence in the Arab world. The Chinese will become so powerful by 2050 that Taiwan would suffer economicly when most of her semi-conductors would be going to China! Relations with the US will become strained but not close to the point of the USSR and the USA. So is China going to replace the American hegemon, or will it be yet another cold war?