Switch or dont switch.???

Heres the scenerio:::

Ther are 3 closed doors an behind 1 door is a good prize an behind the other 2 doors are bad prizes.!!!

You are tolt to choose a door... say you choose door number 1... an then i open door number 3 an its a bad prize... an i then ask you if you want to switch you'r door number 1 for door number 2... woud you'r odds of winin the good prize increase if you switched doors.???

Yes... under those circumstances you'r chanses of winin the good prize woud be much beter if you switched to door number 2.!!!

For those that alredy understan why this is... dont give the answr rite away... see if anyone disagrees an let them have fun wit it... eh

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

Explain. I say it's bullshit.
The chances of the good price being behind door one is equal to it being behind door 2.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

The only way your chances would increase is if they added another prize. That would be illogical for there are only 2 doors and it would no longer be a challenge.

How is that?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts.

This is called the "Monty Hall Puzzle" but the OP has stated it incorrectly.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

In fact, the way he stated it, the solution is no puzzle at all.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

It's supposed to go like this:

You select a door (say, number 1).
The host does NOT open the door but rather opens number 2 to reveal a bad prize.

NOW... the question becomes do you stay with door 1 or select door 3?

 

I'm a bit ashamed to admit that I've never properly understood this puzzle, only learned the answer.

So, in spite of my contempt of the OP grasp of the English language, I will take this opportunity to figure out the puzzle once and for all.

 

I didnt say door number 1 was opened... it was jus chosen.!!!

Yes... if you keep you'r origional door you have a 33% chanse of winin the good prize... if you switch doors you have a 66% chanse of winin the good prize.!!!

 

P(Guessing the right door initially) = 1/3
P(You were wrong initially) = 2/3

Guy opens other door

P(You guessed right) = 1/3 still
P(Door other than yours is right) = 2/3 still

There's only 1 door which isn't yours, so P(its the other door) = 2/3

The reason its not just 50/50 is that the guy NEVER gets it wrong, he has information which is not random.

 

It's just pure mathematical odds, Ben, nothing more.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

(Hint: it's in your favor to switch.)

 

Who cares? There are two doors left, one contains the good prize. The chance of it being behind door one is 50% and the chance of it being behind door three is also 50%.
Pick whichever, it doesn't affect your chances.

 

Just a note in passing. For those too young to remember, the puzzle was a real thing. Both it and the name came from a TV prize program called "The Monty Hall Show."

Correction: The name of the show was "Let's Make a Deal."

 

Done to death!

Critical information, which is never seems to be specified in the question, is the host's strategy.
Do they always open a door after you've chosen one?
If you've chosen a bad prize, will they always open the door with the other bad prize?
If you've chosen a good prize, how do they choose which door to open?

The assumptions implied in the traditional answer are that:
Yes, the host always opens a door after you've chosen one.
Yes, if you've chosen a bad prize, they do always open the door with the other bad prize.
If you've chosen a good prize, they randomly choose one of the remaining doors.
It is also assumed that the host knows where the good prize is.


But... it seems that in the original game, Monty didn't always follow those rules, which makes it all a bit artificial.

 

Heh-heh-heh. So you would think. But think again.

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

(And I'm not going to reveal the answer - even though Ben already know it.)

 

I think you should draw a cartoon of all possibly outcomes.

That's what I'm doing.

 

Hmm.. I see.

/embarrassed.

 

In my OP a specific scenerio was givin... an in that scenerio its always beter to switch doors.!!!

 

Oops! I apologize - sincerely!!!! Somehow I misread it - my mistake!!!!

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

 

Prolly 95 % of people get it rong at firs... an lots of people still refuse to except the corect answr even after its been esplaned... lol.!!!

 

Hi Enmos,
Let's say there are ten doors. You choose one, and the host reveals eight losers, leaving one closed. Do you switch?

Think about the host's decisions.
If you've chosen a loser (90% chance), then the host doiesn't have a choice about which doors to open. They have to open the other eight losers, leaving the winning door shut.
If you've chosen the winner (10% chance), then the host can open any eight doors, leaving one loser shut.

Do you see that the chance that the remaining door is the winner is the same as the chance that you originally chose a loser?

Edit -
I'm behind the times today. Sorry.

 

I should have known the right answer..

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

By picking one door you group the other two doors.

 

Ok, I got it.

The trick is that the goats are identical

Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!