Twice the United States has made an example of small dictatorships, with shinning success. The first, in 1990, when our troops raced across the Iraqi desert and smashed their Army, destroying their equipment and killing, wounding or capturing nearly 200,000 Iraqi soldiers. Again, in 2003 we raced across the Desert heat and smashed all resistance, which was little due to sever depression in morale. Though now we are bogged down in an insurgency, it is mostly ill-trained as compared to the North Koreans. Currently, after nearly two years of fighting, we have lost only 1,300 Men total (including accidental deaths and suicides and et cetera). A feat to be recorded in the anals of military victories.

But a looming shadow refuses to go away, the shadow of the Cold War. From its murky fog stares with suspicious eyes, an enemy none of us know. They live not only in mind but in every day life as if it were still 1950, their chance to seize all of the Korean peninsula still lays before them.

This is a nation whose very war will be a tragedy, as it will be the result of a conflict that has ended no less than 13 years ago. Also because this war will cause the deaths of a million Americans.

It will be America's "Great War". Trench warfare, chemical, and biological attacks. Fighting in the tunnels which extend for hundreds of miles under North Korea's territory.

But it is not the environ or tunnels that will make this war brutal, but the simple fact:

<B>North Korea has one of the best trained Special Operations Forces in the world.</B>

To add injury to insult, they number as few as 100,000 and as many as 120,000 men. (Potentially more than our entire Infantry capabilities).

This war, needless to say would require a substantial draft.

North Korea's Special Forces are well trained to fight in the environment of their homeland. Further training includes:

<B>1) Sniper training
2) Training with most weapons of the major powers of the world
3) Superb infiltration
4) Small unit tactics acting independent of larger regular forces
5) Martial Arts</B>

These Commandoes are often sent on solo missions, the mission?

<B>To cross the DMZ, infiltrate South Korea returning information of their enemy's condition.</B>

As a token of their success, they are required to return an item from South Korea, such as a street sign.

If they fail? They committ suicide. <B>Not forced suicide, but the suicide of the People's Army, a suicide much like that of a Samurai of Japan, a suicide because of disgrace.</B>

While local naval and air supremacy of North Korea may be short lived, the capability of North Korea is far reaching with their Special Forces.

Mainly in the ability to make any attempts to secure South Korea's sovereignty a living hell. But also in other matters:

<B>1) They are fully capable of threatening local powers to stay out of the conflict and to not permit any "invaders" from using their lands as support for bases, air, naval or land.

They are capable of doing this by their long range missile capabilities, which includes the entire region up to Iwo Jima and the Aleutian Islands. The threat of WMD attacks upon very populated Tokyo and Shanghai would eliminate the major potential aid that could be given to UN or American forces in that region.

2) They are capable of insurgency into China, into Japan and into Russia. This insurgency is a further threat to their willingness to aid any military efforts that may be conducted against North Korea.</B>

This means that when the war with North Korea begins, it will be the task of the US and probably the UN to dispose of North Korea entirely by naval and amphibious power.

The US doctrine is fully out-of-date. Belief in the US ability to mobilize troops fast enough to counter a full-scale North Korean invasion of South Korea fails to take into account the fact that while North Koreans are starving, their military capabilities are high, their morale is more fanatical than most radical muslims.

North Korea, with the cover of its Air Forces, can wage a naval war to prevent troop movements that would last until Allied Carrier Fleets would be able to win superiority of the skies.

This is due to the peculiar doctrine of the North Korean Navy, which is built to fight shore conflicts as clandestinely as possible. The bulk of its Submarine fleet is designed to specifically infiltrate coasts.

North Korea's Artillery capabilities surpass the United States, having the longest range artillery known in the world. (An accurate range of approximately 60 miles).

North Korea is able to attack Seoul with anywhere from 500,000 to 1,000,000 artillery rounds per minute, having placed with the range of the DMZ no less than 12,000 artillery peices.

North Korea is substantially "underground". Tunnels exist through-out the country, capable of feeding an area with 15,000 troops per hour.

The majority of North Korea's special weapons industry and weapons industry is either underground or mobile, making them difficult targets to ensure their destruction. Some 8,000 facilities exist as such.

This war is coming. Why?

Because every aspect of "why nations go to war" is growing between North Korea and the rest of the world. What was a hesitant stand-off, is now falling to massive paranoia on the side of North Korea. While regardless how you perceive Bush in other matters, his administration's actions towards North Korea have severely aggitated the issue (though aggitating North Korea is as easy as aggitating a cat by swinging him around your head by his tail).

What's further, the World, and the United States especially, refuse to acknowledge the military capabilities of North Korea.

North Korea has 700,000 men within 100 miles of the DMZ. The United States has 37,000 men in all of South Korea.

The potential of holding the peninsula in event of invasion is impossible, but refused to be acknowledged by senior officials. The United States therefore is allowing a window for aggrivation between North Korea and South Korea. North Korea is losing its ability to feed itself, it will one day need to use force to prevent internal conflict, this force however will not be directed towards putting down rebellions, but to solving their problems long-term. That is, conquering territory for production of food and fishing.

Perhaps even threatening the world with attack if they do not give them food.

North Korea's internal plights will soon force it to go to war.

This is what the U.S. refuses to admit, though perhaps that is only publically. How can you tell the country that you will have to prepare some day to fight a war that will kill a million of your finest sons, when your countrymen barely even understand how the nation they will be fighting is even a threat?

I wonder what would happen if Japan (I believe the largest contributor) and/or the US, completely stopped sending rice to NK?

I did read that NK has had to decrease their minimum height requirements as most enlisted NK are too puny to make the old mark (a bit of protein deprivation does it every time)

I doubt that NK could bomb Tokyo/Shanghai, I think all of those types of instillations are known. Certainly Japan and the US knew well ahead of time, about the missile NK launched over Japan. They had more than ample time to destroy the entire installation.

I wonder what would happen if China decided to cut off oil for month or three?

Anyway, I voted no war.

Wow, so limited in sight Michael? I wonder what happend to the South in the Civil War.

They had only one Iron-works producing most of their cannon. Where'd they get the materiel to fight a war for 5 years? Oh, that's right, they stole it from the Union.

Why do you suspect that North Korea can not make good of conquered materiel?

And you suspect that we could destroy North Korean missile installations, when no one knows where they are...the missile test site is one thing (and is indeed bare compared to a Western test site), but the actual launch facilities are completely off the radar, so to speak.

I would like to see you post some sources to where you read that North Korea had to lower their height requirements, however I think you are being near-sighted. If you can maintain and take a military on maneuvers, you can keep it fighting. The food aid is already at a sever "minimum" due to the alienation North Korea receives by their policies. (The US revoked all of its aid for a time, I do not know if we've re-established it, though doubtful.)

North Koreans in general are malnurished, but they are not so starving as not to support their war machine.

An alternative point of view. I also voted 'no war'.

http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm

Well how about carpet bombing? Artillery is useless in modern warfare, once it is located it is easily destroyed with Air Forces/cruise missiles. After all you can just bomb whole peninsula with nuclear weapons and thats it. NK is not a serious threat for full blown war , but it maybe much harder nut to crack for "anti" terrorist operation. US will be frowned upon if they use nuclear weapons and without them I doubt it will be easy to gain any foothold in NK. Its not desert - its dense jungles, partisan war can last forever there.

Posted by FreeMason:

What was a hesitant stand-off, is now falling to massive paranoia on the side of North Korea.

The paranoia of the neocons got us bogged down in Iraq for non-existent links to Al Quaeda and non-existent WMD's.

Will neocon paranoia launch us into another war in Korea? Paranoids in Korea and paranoids in Washington. Not looking good.

I have written many threads on NK, and her capabilities...if there is one thing I know about a war with NK the US needs a draft...ASAP.

No, we don't need a draft. 51 percent of the American population voted for Bush and the war. There shouldn't be any problems finding enough blood hungry republicans to fill out the army, marines and national guard without a draft-even in a war with Korea.

Although my bets are still on Iran number one and Syria number two. You have to remember that the neocons first priority is Israel.

Why do you suspect that North Korea can not make good of conquered materiel? Unless China came to NK aid, I think they’d be totally screwed. They only have enough oil to last, what, 4 weeks? And that comes directly from China. If war brook out whose side is China going to take? NK? I don’t think so.

And you suspect that we could destroy North Korean missile installations, when no one knows where they are...the missile test site is one thing (and is indeed bare compared to a Western test site), but the actual launch facilities are completely off the radar, so to speak. This is what I read on Janes.com, that the US, SK and Japan knew well ahead of time that NK was testing a missile that was about to fly over Japan. At ANY point they could have stopped the test. YET, funny enough, it took so many Japanese, South Koreans and American “by surprise” and was all over the news when it happened.

To me, that seems like we are being manipulated to think that there is more of a threat than there really is. But who knows, that’s just what I think.

I would like to see you post some sources to where you read that North Korea had to lower their height requirements,

The Seoul Times (http://theseoultimes.com/ST/?url=/ST/db/read.php?idx=735) But the greatest assurance may be North Korea's own weaknesses in its conventional forces, which have progressively grown since 1990: obsolete offensive weaponry 30 to 45 years old, fuel shortages which prohibit big unit exercises, a collapsed military industry, chronic food shortages even in front-line units, and malnourished draftees that led North Korea in 2003 to reduce the minimum height requirement for draftees from four feet and 11 inches to four feet and two inches.

North Korean height problem spurs global aid debate (http://www.detnews.com/2004/nation/0402/15/nation-63770.htm) The World Food Program and UNICEF reported last year that chronic malnutrition had left 42 percent of North Korean children stunted -- meaning their growth was seriously impaired, most likely permanently. An earlier report by the U.N. agencies warned that there was strong evidence that physical stunting could be accompanied by intellectual impairment.

Famine-struck N Koreans 'eating children' (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/06/08/wkor08.xml)
Aid agencies are alarmed by refugees' reports that children have been killed and corpses cut up by people desperate for food. Requests by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) to be allowed access to "farmers' markets", where human meat is said to be traded, have been turned down by Pyongyang, citing "security reasons".

Anyone caught selling human meat faces execution, but in a report compiled by the North Korean Refugees Assistance Fund (NKRAF), one refugee said: "Pieces of 'special' meat are displayed on straw mats for sale. People know where they came from, but they don't talk about it."

Chinese Media Says North Resorting to Cannibalism (http://www.freenorthkorea.net/archives/freenorthkorea/000232.html) BEIJING- Some Chinese newspapers, including Hong Kong's tabloid-style daily the Sun, reported Tuesday that the famine in North Korea has gotten so bad that human flesh is being sold in black markets, citing testimony by defectors.

According to a report issued by the North Korean Refugees Relief Fund Conference, a Chinese group established five years ago, flesh from fresh corpses or kidnapped and murdered children is available in the black market. The newspapers said that the North Korean government, to discourage the practice, is publicly executing persons convicted of trading in human flesh. The report is said to include testimonies of more than 200 North Korean defectors.

In the report, one defector says that conventional meat is so rare and expensive in the North that only a privileged few are able to get it. He said that it was generally known that human flesh is sold in the black markets, but that no one admits it in public. He said that unlike fats from other animals that solidify in a round shape, human fat solidifies in the shape of diamond. The Chinese papers wrote, "When a corpse is buried tonight, the flesh will be in the black market by early morning."

Another defector, aged 54, said that two of his grandchildren disappeared near a shop one day and the police later found their limbs for sale as meat in the same shop. The shop owner, after admitting to having lured the children with food to murder them, was convicted and executed, the defector said.

however I think you are being near-sighted. If you can maintain and take a military on maneuvers, you can keep it fighting. But it seems that they can’t.

The food aid is already at a sever "minimum" due to the alienation North Korea receives by their policies. (The US revoked all of its aid for a time, I do not know if we've re-established it, though doubtful.)

North Koreans in general are malnurished, but they are not so starving as not to support their war machine.I really don’t know, it’s a quite isolated state.

I have written many threads on NK, and her capabilities...if there is one thing I know about a war with NK the US needs a draft...ASAP.Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if the US starts a draft JUST for Iraq!



In summary, I do not think that NK is much of a position to win a war. They will not receive the sort of aid they had received from China and Russia. Their people are malnourished. Their war-machine is almost broken.

And for Christ sakes, they RELEY on their enemy to eat!

That doesn’t sound like much of a threat to me.

If anything I think SK and China are worries that NK is going to collapse and they’re going to have to deal with all these refuges flooding across the boarders.

The picture you paint of this well honed well feed lethal NK special ops warrior just doesn’t appear to jive with the situation on the ground in modern NK. But, who knows? Maybe? I just don’t think so.

An alternative point of view. I also voted 'no war'.

http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htmInteresting piece, I didn’t know that Jimmy Carter went to NK to personally broker a peace deal? Interesting.

But Michael you forget that although the NK ppl aren't being adequately feed the NK military gets all the food it can, and NK is not “one nation” per se, its two nations, privileged and maltreated, I call it the Pyongyang, Namp’o, Kaesong corridor, these ppl have it the best in the country, those outside this corridor are well…left to their own devices, an extreme version of blue-state/red-state. Secondly how can the US win a war with NK if she doesn’t have the men needed to effectively battle it? The US needs 600,000 men to fight on the peninsula, not SK the US. This is not hubris either, also the US has lost before to NK in a simulated war. Thirdly NK has the bomb…if her government is on the verge she will probably go out with a bang. That’s why its in the US best interests not to attack her, and the Japanese will probably not allow any American aircraft to take off from her soil due to NK threats. Even if NK loses (which right now is 60/40 due to American weakness), the damage done to SK economy will be disastrous, and the Asian markets could collapse especially the Japanese markets due to perceived fear of a NK nuclear attack. The real threat from NK isn’t if she is going to win or not, imo the real threat is how a war with NK will effect millions of Koreans, Japanese, and the world economy. If the US is stupid enough (with this administration you know it is) to start another war with Iran, plus Iraq, and on top of that NK, and if China was really pissed a invasion of Taiwan which is a region that is very hot this year we are in for fun, a perfect storm.

The US needs 600,000 men to fight on the peninsula, not SK the US. This is not hubris either, also the US has lost before to NK in a simulated war. Thirdly NK has the bomb…if her government is on the verge she will probably go out with a bang. That’s why its in the US best interests not to attack her, and the Japanese will probably not allow any American aircraft to take off from her soil due to NK threats. Yeah, but I picked the NO WAR option, so I think we agree here?

I hope, for SK sake, that when they do collapse it doesn't go with a bang?

How easy and much time/money does it take to maintain a bomb? I mean how long do these bombs last? Wouldn't they have to have some sort fo decent way to shoot it? Wouldn't SK/US/Japan/China know where these speacial rocks are lunched from?

Yeah, but I picked the NO WAR option, so I think we agree here?

No...war is very possible in the Peninsula imo, the US is not going to budge with her neogiations with NK, this administration doesn't seem to get the concept of neogiations, also the US is sticking firm on its denial to have bilaterial party talks (something I simply don't understand), we have to back to the Clinton era where real progress was being made vis-a-vis NK, there was even talk of Clinton going to NK himself! Things on the Peninsula took a nasty turn when Bush rejected the Sunshine policy, and put NK on the "Axis of Evil" list, the US has been the main provocateur in this situation, and with this adminstration now having even more control over the US politically, I really do worry. I mean if those retards have the "brains" to attack Iran, what makes us think they won't NK?

I hope, for SK sake, that when they do collapse it doesn't go with a bang?

SK has to make sure NK doesn't collapse that is the point of interaction btwn the North and the South, and its in China's interest too. Those countries understand that if NK were to collapse it would involve firstly massive refugee flows, secondly loose nukes, and thirdly a starving, underdeveloped economy which would cost upwards of $1 trillion to bring to SK standards...and that's even a understatment. SK wants to avoid the fate of Germany, if the GDR was nominally independent post-1989 and was able to develop its capitalist economy without the $70 billion a year in welfare cheques but real investment then imo Germany wouldn't be in such a bad shape. If NK perceives itself to be on the verge of collapse she might either blackmail other nations, or do the unthinkable. To those who think Kim is crazy...think again he is very intelligent, and he knows that him with the bomb has pretty much guarenteed his existance for a while longer because of the regions fears of a warring NK.

Wouldn't they have to have some sort fo decent way to shoot it?

If there is anything NK does well...its make missiles. NK has proven Russian SLBM tech now, and supposedly these can be launched from ships. Its called the No-Dong B, and we can't forget the Taepo Dong...remember the Iranian Shahab III is essentially a No Dong.

Wouldn't SK/US/Japan/China know where these speacial rocks are lunched from

Well some of them yes...but here's the problem much of NK's missile forces are lauched from TEL's and those are hidden in the mountains and we've only scratched the surface of that maze.

I have never understood the need for the U.S. to keep troops prepared for a possible Korean war. South Korea could easily defend itself from any North Korean attack. The only real threat comes from the N.K. artillery which could pound Seoul from within their own borders. The N.K. army would have no hope of passing the border, even if they had the fuel to move into S.K. Would it have a severe economic impact? Of course. Is the North Korean army a threat to the South? No, and the South Koreans know it which is why American troops will be off that pennisula within a decade.

North Korea slashes food rations (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4200861.stm)

North Korea has cut food rations to just half the amount recommended by the World Food Programme, the UN food agency says.

WFP monitors say government handouts have been cut from 300g (10.5oz) of cereals a day to 250g.

The UN says 16 million North Koreans rely on the rations. I really do think that NK is not a threat. They can just barely provide enough food for themselves, nevermind going to war! And with the US no doubt?? Nope I don't see.

I have written many threads on NK, and her capabilities...if there is one thing I know about a war with NK the US needs a draft...ASAP.

No, we don't. If war comes on the peninsula it will be because NK attacks SK, in which case the US will have the more than capable ROK military as its ally, providing all the extra manpower it needs.

I have never understood the need for the U.S. to keep troops prepared for a possible Korean war. South Korea could easily defend itself from any North Korean attack.

Firstly let's stay away from being a comedian here, SK could not "easily" defend itself from a NK attack, that's hyperbole. South Korea could thwart a NK invasion but she would probably lose Seoul, also we forget that there are many NK spies within the SK military, and thus that is a major tactical disadvantage. Thirdly NK could Scud major SK naval and air bases, if you throw enough of them some are bound to do some damage, also NK can subvert the frontlines with her special forces and attack installations in the south, like the port of Pusan. SK would be able imo to eventually hold off a NK attack, but at great loss, and it would become a war of attrition.

Is the North Korean army a threat to the South? No, and the South Koreans know it which is why American troops will be off that pennisula within a decade.

The South is a third world country without Seoul, NK could hold Seoul hostage (which is what I would do), seal the roads leading out of the city trapping millions inside, and threaten it with 500,000 shells an hour if SK doesn't either give in or come to a comprimise solution, the only way imo to really break that would be with American forces. Also we forget that Japan may not want anything to do with a war on the Peninsula because NK could nuke Tokyo so that could greatly reduce American military power.

No, we don't. If war comes on the peninsula it will be because NK attacks SK, in which case the US will have the more than capable ROK military as its ally, providing all the extra manpower it needs.

Yes you do...according to the US military's own estimates the amount of American troops needed to thwart a NK invasion would be in the area of 600,000 Americans. Do you have 600,000 American soldiers ready to go? Last time I checked the US was bogged down in Iraq, the situation is so bad in the US military that you have "stop-loss" and the national guard fighting...if NK were to attack tommorow...there are some options for the US:

>Pull out of Iraq and move into NK (which would be fruitless it would take too much time)
>Send all available US forces (paltry amount at best)
>Create a draft (which imo would even be fruitless because a NK war is entended by the NK government not to last more then a month)
>Nuke NK (imo the only logical option for the US)

This isn't going to be a long drawn out war in which the US can easily land men on the ground, the war will be short, and sweet because the NK's know that if it isn't then they will surely lose. If the NK's can get their major objectives in a month (which I doubt is the entire peninsula) which would probably be major industrial centres of the NW in Seoul, Inchon containing the vast majority of SK's population and economy, imo that is a doable thing for NK. Remember that even according to American simulations NK has won in the past...but now with nuclear weaponry the situation is too serious imo to ever really go that far.

SK would be able imo to eventually hold off a NK attack, but at great loss, and it would become a war of attrition. A war of attrition. And just where is NK going to get the oil and food to continue this “war of attrition” past 3 days?

The South is a third world country without Seoul, How so?

NK could hold Seoul hostage (which is what I would do), seal the roads leading out of the city trapping millions inside, and threaten it with 500,000 shells an hour if SK doesn't either give in or come to a comprimise solution So now the NK army has suddenly crossed the DMZ surrounded Seoul and captured the city?

:bugeye:

because NK could nuke Tokyo so that could greatly reduce American military power. :rolleyes:

A war of attrition. And just where is NK going to get the oil and food to continue this “war of attrition” past 3 days?

It is known that NK has emergency supplies of food, and war material that could last about 4 months. Come again? But the whole point of another Korean war is to avoid that outcome, to get it over with ASAP.

How so?

20 million ppl 1/2 the population live within the Seoul area, and most of the nations output as a result orginates in Seoul, if NK really wanted to it could set back SK about 30 years. Wo bu shi jiaoshu!

So now the NK army has suddenly crossed the DMZ surrounded Seoul and captured the city?

Possible, firstly I don't understand why you feel it necessary to use emoticons when its obvious the only reason why you are doing that is because u don't understand what I am saying, not that what I am saying is incorrect. Secondly without a major US presence in the region it is very possible if not likely that NK would capture Seoul after “softening” up SK defences, to be far the casualty rate would be horrid, but NK imo can at least get Seoul without a major US force, thirdly we cannot forget there are spies in the south for NK, and much of her moves will be monitored, and fourthly we know NK has a crack team of hackers, after the 1999 attack against the Chinese embassy the a bunch of Chinese hacked in the B-2 bombers main base, who knows what a NK force may be able to do.

:rolleyes:

"If the United States ignites a nuclear war in this part of the world, then U.S. bases in Japan would serve as a detonating fuse that would plunge Japan into a nuclear sea of fire," North Korea's paper, Rodong Sinmun, said in a commentary carried by the KCNA news agency. "If it wants to maintain peace and live safely, Japan should not become an appendage of the war strategy of American imperialism."
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04268/384518.stm
In a time of war, and a desperate NK liable to do anything…Nippon has been duly warned at least.

I understand that SK has a lot of people in Seoul but I would not say SK is a Third World country? That’s like saying SK, HK, Taiwan and Singapore are the equivalent of Indonesia or Madagascar. Not true.

Now North Korea on the other hand, IS a Third world country.

From the earlier posts, I was under the impression that it is SK who, of the two, has the vastly superior force. That isn’t to say Seoul wouldn’t be bombed – and maybe even flat – but I don’t think NK is going to cross the DMZ fight their way through the SK army and surround the capitol.

Sure NK can iterate their “sea of fire” threats all day long. I seem to remember something about a “Mother of All Battles” that lasted all of about 3 days.

Words one thing,
Reality another.

I do not think that NK has the ability to even ignite a launching pad capable of delivery a nuclear missile, without it being blown to pieces anyhow. Never mind actually getting a nuclear bomb to make it in to the air without crapping out. NK hasn’t demonstrated they even have a nuclear bomb and you seem to say Tokyo’s nuclear-toast. I just think that, that is typical of US paranoia and it seems odd coming from a Canuck.

(as a Michigander I can say that :)

As I’ve read before, (Janes) when NK launched their first missile over Japan; China, America, SK and Japan all knew well in advance that this was taking place. These sorts of instillations are not a secret. At any moment they could have stopped the NK from launching that missile. Obviously they wanted NK to launch it. Or didn’t mind.

I do not think those sorts of missiles are mobile?

If you say NK has 3 months supply I will take you at your word, although 3months of oil during war time is a hell of a lot of oil? Regardless, as was posted earlier SK is the more superior of the two Armies. So I would assume it would be the other way around. And a few crack squads are not going to capture a city. I think Iraq is testament to what it takes to capture a city and it’s been years now and it still isn’t captured so three months seems short indeed.

note: Michigander and Canuck are the correct spellings :)

Yes you do...according to the US military's own estimates the amount of American troops needed to thwart a NK invasion would be in the area of 600,000 Americans. Do you have 600,000 American soldiers ready to go?

That's not even so. All of the US military's estimates I've seen, including the site you are so fond of using, Global Security, do not call for such a US buildup. What they do expect is a buildup of SK reserves after the immediate NK invasion has been checked. While it is expected that it could be a really nasty affair, every hypthetical I've read predicts an ultimate US-SK victory, and none of them have anticipated a need for a US buildup such as you've described.

]I understand that SK has a lot of people in Seoul but I would not say SK is a Third World country?

I never said SK was a third world country, what I said (since you seem to continually selectively read what I write) is that if Seoul is destroyed along with the surrounding areas, SK would become a third world country because the vast majority of the countries capital, and industry is located in that area. Please Mike…re-read what I write and don’t fall into diatribe, like this:

That’s like saying SK, HK, Taiwan and Singapore are the equivalent of Indonesia or Madagascar. Not true.

No shit…

From the earlier posts, I was under the impression that it is SK who, of the two, has the vastly superior force.

No it doesn’t have a “vastly” superior force, stop with the value judgements because you simply don’t know what you are talking about. I do (I don’t want to sound arrogant but…) because I have written an essay about NK’s military, and read many sources, of which two are books in my personal library. The differential btwn the two is not that significant. Yes SK is now marginally more powerful in terms of technology, but NK still has sheer power on its side, and SK military is not that great at organization, and communications. Also we cannot forget about élan, I doubt the SK troops have the same passion as NK troops.

That isn’t to say Seoul wouldn’t be bombed – and maybe even flat – but I don’t think NK is going to cross the DMZ fight their way through the SK army and surround the capitol.

I believe that without American support they can do it, their advances will surely stop afterwards, but NK’s objective is that city and she will do anything necessary to get it. Also once NK loses (should it) who is going to occupy NK? SK doesn’t have the men, or the capital to do it, essentially you are breeding the seeds of big problems.

I do not think that NK has the ability to even ignite a launching pad capable of delivery a nuclear missile, without it being blown to pieces anyhow.

She doesn’t need one, she has TEL’s that are located inside the mountains that are safe from SK attack, that is SK’s greatest weakness, she doesn’t have the real capability to do offensive attacks against NK, NK can do it against SK. While SK may be able to stop the physical movement of NK troops into the rest of SK, she cannot attack the vast network of underground tunnels. Again Michael…please refrain from making unsupported assumptions.

Never mind actually getting a nuclear bomb to make it in to the air without crapping out.

According to the CIA NK has workable nuclear weapons designs, she doesn’t need to actually test it because she was there with Pakistan in 1998 which is essentially the same bomb.

NK hasn’t demonstrated they even have a nuclear bomb and you seem to say Tokyo’s nuclear-toast. I just think that, that is typical of US paranoia and it seems odd coming from a Canuck.

Its not paranoia, its supported facts sorry if you don’t like it.

As I’ve read before, (Janes) when NK launched their first missile over Japan; China, America, SK and Japan all knew well in advance that this was taking place.

They had no idea, it was a shock to all nations at the time, if they knew they would have been able to stop it from happening, or wouldn’t be so surprised.

I do not think those sorts of missiles are mobile?

Sadly they are…

And a few crack squads are not going to capture a city. I think Iraq is testament to what it takes to capture a city and it’s been years now and it still isn’t captured so three months seems short indeed.

How many ppl do you think will invade SK, it won’t be under 100,000. Those “crack squads” are there to disrupt SK forces behind the front.

Spyke:

That's not even so. All of the US military's estimates I've seen, including the site you are so fond of using, Global Security, do not call for such a US buildup.

Well unlike you I don’t pretend to know what I am saying I can prove it:

…Bush administration’s 2001 Quadrennial Defence review- the United States would deploy almost half its combat forces there in a possible was. Associated troops numbers would probably be in the vincity of 500,000…Indeed some reports suggest that more then 600,000 U.S troops could ultimately be deployed (OHanlon 71)’

I've read predicts an ultimate US-SK victory, and none of them have anticipated a need for a US buildup such as you've described.

Laughable considering what I wrote…

They had no idea, it was a shock to all nations at the time, if they knew they would have been able to stop it from happening, or wouldn’t be so surprised. I can not find the information on Janes and I think I need a subscription so in lieu this’ll have to do:AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 47 (http://www.afio.com/) JAPANESE RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITES. Earlier this month the Japanese government approved plans to build and launch four intelligence satellites. The first two satellites would be optical with one meter resolution and the other two would provide synthetic aperture radar all-weather imagery. Since US intelligence knew beforehand about the recent North Korean missile test -- which crossed Japanese airspace -- and did not warn Japan, and since the US has forbidden two-meter or better resolution imagery of Israel, Japan apparently will not be relying on the US for its spy satellites. France is the only other viable choice around. The Japanese satellite competition is reportedly between Aerospatiale and Lockheed Martin, "with a wild card in the deck". If either Aerospatiale or Lockheed Martin build a spy satellite for China, Japan will not hire them for the same job. This means the Japanese spy sats are not squarely in the lap of either France or the US, which makes for a more "interesting" France-US confrontation in that corner of the world. Source: "Intelligence" online newsletter, Nov 16 http://www.blythe.org/Intelligence>

From what I know it was a genuine shock...if I had find a source I will provide it.

A war between the US and NK is not coming, simply because NK is neither a serious threat to the US nor has something that the US elite badly wants. NK threats are really extortion to prop up the dictatorship. Those in command in the US are not confused about that, but the administration wants the public to think that NK is a threat to support the funding of the missile defense shield, which is really for the purpose of moving mass taxpayer money to wealthy Republican supporters' pockets.

Well unlike you I don’t pretend to know what I am saying I can prove it:

“ …Bush administration’s 2001 Quadrennial Defence review- the United States would deploy almost half its combat forces there in a possible was. Associated troops numbers would probably be in the vincity of 500,000…Indeed some reports suggest that more then 600,000 U.S troops could ultimately be deployed (OHanlon 71)’

Yes, O'Hanlon's key phrase in there being "...some reports suggest that more then[sic] 600,000 U.S. troops could ultimately be deployed..." Actually, I think the figure at one time called for as many as 690,000 troops. However, those are worst case scenario numbers that would be at the back end of the Time Phase Force Deployment List (TPFDL) OPLAN 5027, and I don't think most military strategists believe it will ever come anywhere near that. The ROK has a 5 million man reserve froce that can be called up and deployed in a few weeks, well before the US can deploy the numbers in the last phases of TPFDL.

Yes, O'Hanlon's key phrase in there being "...some reports suggest that more then[sic] 600,000 U.S. troops could ultimately be deployed..."

But he made no such assertion about the fact that half of the US combat troops would have to go. Also I think I proved my point this isn't going to be a walk in the park, and SK would have to undergo great pains to prevent the NK invasion of Seoul. What is considered a “worst case scenario”? I mean isn’t there really only one or some odd variation? Eventually someone would need to occupy North Korea…do you honestly think SK can do that?

I don't think most military strategists believe it will ever come anywhere near that.

Belief…it’s a dangerous thing. Essentially I think I have proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the US doesn’t have the men to fight a war on the Korea without a draft which would be useless.

The ROK has a 5 million man reserve froce that can be called up and deployed in a few weeks, well before the US can deploy the numbers in the last phases of TPFDL.

A few weeks is not enough…NK time frame for war is 2 weeks. I don’t think u are getting it here, this is not going to be a long fought war.

Yes, O'Hanlon's key phrase in there being "...some reports suggest that more then[sic] 600,000 U.S. troops could ultimately be deployed..."

But he made no such assertion about the fact that half of the US combat troops would have to go.

I don't know what assertions he made or didn't make. You gave one brief statement without a link.

Also I think I proved my point this isn't going to be a walk in the park, and SK would have to undergo great pains to prevent the NK invasion of Seoul.

Nobody said it would be a walk in the park for the South Koreans. So I don't know what you proved. At any rate, you gave one guy's suggestion that it might take up to 600,000 troops, which is hardly proof of anything. Hell, I can easily counter that 'proof' with a different 'expert' opinion:

"When Pentagon officials talk about the need to maintain a “two-war” capability, they often refer to Korea. This is absurd since South Korea can crush North Korea without American help."
http://www.g2mil.com/korea.htm


Belief…it’s a dangerous thing. Essentially I think I have proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the US doesn’t have the men to fight a war on the Korea without a draft which would be useless.

Uh, no. that wasn't the debate. The debate was whether or not the US would need the draft, and you haven't proven that, merely gave one guy's suggestion that it might a certain number of troops.

A few weeks is not enough…NK time frame for war is 2 weeks. I don’t think u are getting it here, this is not going to be a long fought war.

I think I do get it. I'm not sure you do though. It would take the US much longer to deploy troops than it will for the SKs to call up reserves if necessary to do so. It will be combined US/SK firepower and SK troops that will defeat NK. You're right. NK can't last more than 2 weeks maximum. They don't have the fuel, they don't have the parts for their equipment, and they can't count on help from the Chinese or Russians. And SK is a much different animal than the one NK attacked a half century ago.

From the earlier posts, I was under the impression that it is SK who, of the two, has the vastly superior force.

No it doesn’t have a “vastly” superior force, stop with the value judgements because you simply don’t know what you are talking about. I do (I don’t want to sound arrogant but…) because I have written an essay about NK’s military, and read many sources, of which two are books in my personal library. The differential btwn the two is not that significant. Yes SK is now marginally more powerful in terms of technology, but NK still has sheer power on its side, and SK military is not that great at organization, and communications. Also we cannot forget about élan, I doubt the SK troops have the same passion as NK troops. Yet, from the above post I read this:

….. North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo. Most North Korean soldiers could not attack because they are needed to defend the entire DMZ and coastal approaches (they remember the 1950 landing at Inchon) while entire divisions must remain throughout North Korea to fend off heliborne offensives, food riots, and probable coups.

On the other hand, the entire 700,000 man South Korean active duty army can be devoted to the defense of Seoul. The modern South Korean army is backed by over 5,000,000 well-trained reservists who can be called to duty in hours.

South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year.

South Koreanmilitary equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean militaryequipment is over 30 years old and much is inoperable due to a lack of maintenance. If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacityand $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Koreahas no industry and no money. As a result, South Korea is roughly five timesmore powerful than North Korea.

I don't know what assertions he made or didn't make. You gave one brief statement without a link.

As shocking as this may be…it was from…a book! That’s why I put a page number, I realize it’s a shock but its true. If you want to see the book’s over here:

http://www.mcgrawhill.ca/tpm/press+box/press+releases/_published/0071431551.php

Nobody said it would be a walk in the park for the South Koreans. So I don't know what you proved.

Although no one said that verbatim it was implied by both you and Michael through the use of rhetoric like the words “vastly” and the outright lies you suggested at American troop levels (assertions you are still not able to prove). I proved (and I think its darn obvious) that the US would need far more troops to defeat a NK invasion then what you assumed to be true, don’t beat a dead horse.

At any rate, you gave one guy's suggestion that it might take up to 600,000 troops, which is hardly proof of anything.

Hmmmmmmm....you seemed to have selectively read what he wrote:

…Bush administration’s 2001 Quadrennial Defence review- the United States would deploy almost half its combat forces there in a possible war.

One guy? Sure, Bush…come again?

Hell, I can easily counter that 'proof' with a different 'expert' opinion

Let’ s not make this into a charade of intellectualism shall we…g2fuckturds.com isn’t exactly what I would consider “expert” I know for sure I wouldn’t be able to use that value judgement garbage in a essay, why use it here?

Uh, no. that wasn't the debate.

Ah yah it was…that’s why you pretty much pounced on me b/c I suggested the US needed a draft because she doesn’t have the men available…re-read the thread before you make these outrageous statements.

The debate was whether or not the US would need the draft, and you haven't proven that, merely gave one guy's suggestion that it might a certain number of troops.

I proved the US does need a draft because she does not have the men available to fight the Korean war using the Bush administrations own assertions. A good place to start the draft would be Tenn. Let’s see how patriotic those country singers really are…

I think I do get it. I'm not sure you do though.

Well this post you posted was very telling…now I know you don’t get it.

It will be combined US/SK firepower and SK troops that will defeat NK.

I disagree SK troops would be able to hold off the NK troops not defeat them, what will defeat NK troops will be father time, remember there are I would surmise rather large amounts of NK spies high up in the SK military, and could easily give NK that tactical advantage, we pretty much know the spies in NK are rare if exist at all, I remember hearing that a SK soldier was giving NK operatives maps of key air bases so artillery could accurately strike (if I find that link I will bring it). 500 Scuds, 10’s of TPI’s, 10’s of No-DongB’s, Guam, and Okinawa are in the direct line of fire of NK. Should NK not reach its objective in two weeks max. four, then the nuclear genie will be unleashed.

And SK is a much different animal than the one NK attacked a half century ago.

Stronger…but not as motivated.

About spying:

South Korean authorities have admitted for years that North Korea has a network of “sleeper agents” in the South — up to thousands of low-level operatives who feed information back to the regime. A few years ago, base officials stopped a Korean man working in a tailor shop in a 2nd Infantry Division camp who was pacing off distances between buildings, Fazio said. When they went to his shop, they found the man was creating artillery grids on maps, he said.
-------------------------------------
And when investigators checked out a North Korean mini-submarine in 1998 off the South’s east coast, they found high-quality passports and documents, said Fazio, who saw the material.
The U.S. military publishes rafts of information on its tactics and doctrine, all of which can be tapped by the other side, Garrett said.
-----------------------------------
“The U.S. military is not very good about hiding its capabilities,” Garrett said.
------------------------------------
But in the end, it means little for the Korean situation. North Korea has enough conventional weapons to threaten Seoul and can launch a pre-emptive attack that would turn Seoul into a “sea of fire,” as North Korea once threatened, Medlicott said.
“We are really kind of held hostage by North Korea,” she said.
And the spy game never provides clear answers, just more pieces of a puzzle that grows larger, especially so with North Korea.
“The reality with intelligence is sometimes you are going to be right and sometimes you are going to be wrong,” Garrett said.
----------------------------
Stars and Stripes March 21, 2004


Like I said...

North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo. Most North Korean soldiers could not attack because they are needed to defend the entire DMZ and coastal approaches (they remember the 1950 landing at Inchon) while entire divisions must remain throughout North Korea to fend off heliborne offensives, food riots, and probable coups.

Well then tell that to the US general in SK:

The sheer capability of these forces far outweighs any perceived threat posed from WMD that North Korea poses. They are potentially so powerful that Gen. Thomas A Schwartz said that North Korea could destroy all 37,000 Americans forces in “…less than three hours” (http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/1359.html). (from my essay)

-or-

“North Korean soldiers are taught to fight to the bitter end. In September 1996, a North Korean submarine got stranded at Kangrung, South Korea, and its crew abandoned the ship. Eleven of the crew committed suicide and the rest fought to the last man except one who was captured. In June 1998, another submarine got caught in fishing nets at Sokcho and its crew killed themselves. Such is the fighting spirit of North Korean soldiers.” (http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/1359.html)

South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year.

*YAWNS* so did the US in Vietnam…point? NK can easily destroy SK’s economy within days, kill ten of millions, and nuke key SK cities with impunity…don’t be so freaking simplistic.

South Koreanmilitary equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean militaryequipment is over 30 years old

No doubt… look I even help you prove that:

But not everything is perfect within the North Korean military, like many states in her position North Korean forces are old; “About half of North Korea’s major weapons are roughly 1960s design; the other half are even older.” (O’Hanlon 67). This characterization is mostly true, but North Korea does maintain some modern weaponry like the MiG-29 “Fulcrum” fighter, and some of best artillery that the Soviet Union could have provided. But to the North Koreans the capability of their technology is secondary to their actual strength. (my essay)

It doesn’t phase me much Michael. The Nazi’s had superior tech to the USSR, she lost, the US in Vietnam, she lost, it is how effectively you use that tech, and I suspect SK cannot use it all too well.

If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacityand $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Koreahas no industry and no money.

It won’t need any…;)

As a result, South Korea is roughly five timesmore powerful than North Korea.

Ignorance is bliss mein friend.

"North Korea, with the cover of its Air Forces, can wage a naval war to prevent troop movements that would last until Allied Carrier Fleets would be able to win superiority of the skies."

LOL! Now that is funny! And what Air Force would this be??? LOL

NK has two, and only two cards in its hand (granted both are big).
1) Nuke
2) The Ability to Shell Seul into Oblivion.

Wow these are fine and dandy, they are defensive threats. NK does not have the ability to Invade the South. Lets not forget that we feed them. China gives them oil. So they attack. Ok then they starve. The Military is barely keeping control of NK as it is and now you want them to invade another country?? Hardly.

Yes, the U.S. has only 37,000 troops. Lets not Forget SK troops. The SK military is far superior.
The North has a 1,000,000 man army. Wow. Good luck feeding them and transporting them anywhere.

We stomped the North once before we could do it again.
Would we?? No.
Whats the point??
Are we going to risk the Destruction of Seul and a nuclear Attack on the South?? Not a chance.
The North will collapse on its own.

I cant believe you brought up the Norths Naval Capability. What a joke.

Our concern with the North is Kim Sucs Dong anoying habit of sending nuke tech to other countries. That and his occasional missle launch over Japan.

"It doesn’t phase me much Michael. The Nazi’s had superior tech to the USSR, she lost, the US in Vietnam, she lost, it is how effectively you use that tech, and I suspect SK cannot use it all too well."

Well when you have the US, Britain, and the Soviets out producing you 5-1 while getting your factories blown sky high everday its kind of hard to win. Blame poor leadership on that one. I havnt read too much on the Vastly superior NK bombers that will whipe out SK industry.

Vietnam doest really count. We never invaded the North. It was a political war. Militarily we kicked the sh*t out of them. Stupid stupid stupid defensive war.
Anyone read Colon Powel's book?? He talks about his first mission in Vietnam. He was flown out to the Middle of Nowhere to some Sout Viet base. He asked why the base was there seeing that there was nothing important around. The answer?? To protect the airport. Why was the airport there? To supply the base.
That was Vietnam logic.

I guess you forgot that we already took over the North once before. If it wasnt for China there would be no North. And as far as your "NK has better Numbers", look at the Chinese as a perfect example. They lost over 1,000,000 People in the Korean war to our 36,000. And they DIDNT take over the South.

LOL! Now that is funny! And what Air Force would this be??? LOL

I suspect the initial stages of the war would be what he is talking about, no question NK”s air force isn’t exactly up to snuff…

Wow these are fine and dandy, they are defensive threats.

Nuclear weapons by definition are offensive weaponry; it has no tactical defence because you will kill yourself by detonating the weapon in some form of defence. Also by definition artillery is an offensive tactic and weapon…I thought you were in the military?

NK does not have the ability to Invade the South

She does, the question is how successful that invasion will be, without US intervention I would vouch well, at least the Seoul-Incheon area.

Lets not forget that we feed them. China gives them oil. So they attack. Ok then they starve. The Military is barely keeping control of NK as it is and now you want them to invade another country?? Hardly.

Where did this imaginary world come from? If you are going to make bold faced assumptions like that at least back it up. Now let’s “review” your “argument” here:

“So they attack. Ok then they starve.”: Who is they? The population or the military? NK has massive reserves of food ready for a war, the country’s whole industry and economy is geared to the military, remember a war on the Peninsula is not expected to last long so that assumption of yours is largely incorrect in this context.

“The Military is barely keeping control of NK as it is and now you want them to invade another country??”: By the looks of it Kim still has a firm grip on the country, since there is no information from the outside coming into NK except for the privileged few, no concept of democracy, capitalism, etc they don’t know any other alternative. All members of NK society who were considered part of the intelligentsia, were killed and usually along with their families to stop the “contamination” of un-Juche thoughts from the general population. I think the most NK’s think something is wrong but don’t blame the government but the US and the gang, etc. Invading SK would of course be a last grasp for air, so really it wouldn’t really matter to the leadership.

Yes, the U.S. has only 37,000 troops. Lets not Forget SK troops. The SK military is far superior.

Where does this value judgement come from? The SK is superior to the NK military but not “far” superior. I suspect you haven’t even read the thread.

The North has a 1,000,000 man army. Wow. Good luck feeding them and transporting them anywhere.

700,000 are located just north of Seoul genius…why do ppl like you talk when they KNOW NOTHING ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE UTTERING? Honestly Crazy, is it because you are in the “US military” you now know all?

We stomped the North once before we could do it again.

Wasn’t it a stalemate?

The North will collapse on its own.

You realize how many times that have been said over the past 20 years? 1991 after the USSR collapsed, nothing happened, 1993 after Kim Il Sung died, nothing happened, 1995 after the deadly floods, nothing happened, a collapsed economy, nothing happened, what makes us think something is going to happen? A country cannot collapse without an intelligentsia to create the basis for revolution, all NK has is a mass of a discontented population that could relatively easily be put down, read Marx and Lenin.

Well when you have the US, Britain, and the Soviets out producing you 5-1 while getting your factories blown sky high everday its kind of hard to win. Blame poor leadership on that one. I havnt read too much on the Vastly superior NK bombers that will whipe out SK industry.

Its called artillery, and 500 odd scuds, and up to hundred much more advanced missiles which are I believe nuclear capable (you can thank your ally Pakistan for that, you invaded Iraq fucking idiots), they don’t need bombers, that’s a “bourgeoisie” weapon…lol.

I guess you forgot that we already took over the North once before. If it wasnt for China there would be no North. And as far as your "NK has better Numbers", look at the Chinese as a perfect example. They lost over 1,000,000 People in the Korean war to our 36,000. And they DIDNT take over the South.

No they didn’t, and to be fair the US was a very effective fighting force, but back in 1950 the US had millions under arms, was unquestionably the most powerful nation or earth, and wasn’t in Iraq, also NK was not nuclear capable and didn’t have over 2 million under arms…things have CHANGED significantly, NK has won before in US military simulations, and since the US cannot supply the 600,000 men needed to defeat the enemy things will be ugly, because remember defeating NK in Seoul is not enough you have to invade NK itself, and that won’t be pretty.

Food dosnt play that much in winning a war unless its a stalemate as we can see from the past... in ww2 many soliders on either side ate horses and so on to survive... some ate their leather boots (I dont beleive it)

"Wasn’t it a stalemate?"

Before or After the Chinese crossed the border??
Before the Chinese came accross we had taken over all of Korea.
After they Chinese came they kicked the crap out of us until we stopped them at the current border.
Now did we cross the border or did the Chinese invade?? Who knows....

We were not ready for the Korean war. Just look at the thousands injured or killed by the North Korean winter. The Chinese lost tens of thousands. Nasty war. And sadly, mostly forgotten.

As far as Nukes being offensive- when was the last time we or anyone else did that?? [I think we all know the answer to that]
If anything they have taken the imfamous role of MAD. Countries with Nukes have become immune from invasion.
Anyone know that last time a country with Nuclear Weapons was invaded??
*tick* *tock* *tick* *tock*
Its never happened! Who would risk it??
Do you think we would have invaded Iraq if they had nukes??

During the Korean war McArthur wanted to open a second front and invade China directly. He also stated a desire to NUKE China!! Needless to say he was fired.


I highly doubt the U.S. would stand by while China supplied the North. A simple embargo against China would take care of that.

And more importantly:
What exactly would the North gain from Invading the South??

Food dosnt play that much in winning a war unless its a stalemate as we can see from the past... in ww2 many soliders on either side ate horses and so on to survive... some ate their leather boots (I dont beleive it)

WWI yes, WWII no.

Before or After the Chinese crossed the border??

Well before the Chinese came u were on the Yalu, that’s why they invaded because the US was having wet dreams about China at the time.

We were not ready for the Korean war. Just look at the thousands injured or killed by the North Korean winter. The Chinese lost tens of thousands. Nasty war. And sadly, mostly forgotten.

Yes a forgotten war because it wasn’t a victory, America had purged itself of that war to avoid the fact that it didn’t defeat “communism”, when it was only beginning to spread.

As far as Nukes being offensive- when was the last time we or anyone else did that?? [I think we all know the answer to that]

When was the last time Russia and the US went to war? If Japan had the bomb, it would have been different as well, maybe one of their “balloon bombers” would have nuked a national park…lol.

If anything they have taken the imfamous role of MAD. Countries with Nukes have become immune from invasion.

Which explains why Iran wants the bomb, and why NK has it. Remember the US stated that these countries were part of the “axis of evil”, and Iraq too what happened to her?

Its never happened! Who would risk it??

DoD has talked about attacking NK, don’t take it out of the realm of possibility, especially with this administration.

I highly doubt the U.S. would stand by while China supplied the North. A simple embargo against China would take care of that.

Who would supply Wal-Mart?

What exactly would the North gain from Invading the South??

Nothing…but at that stage of desperation what would she lose? That’s why the US has to deal with NK for real to make NK into the next China and NK wants to become one.

North Korea's Artillery capabilities surpass the United States, having the longest range artillery known in the world. (An accurate range of approximately 60 miles).

North Korea is able to attack Seoul with anywhere from 500,000 to 1,000,000 artillery rounds per minute, having placed with the range of the DMZ no less than 12,000 artillery peices.By way of introduction I am a 12 year active duty veteran naval officer who has spent 19 months as a NSFS liason in an artillery unit with extensive experience in counter-battery fire. Participated in Joint Readiness Training Center, National Training Center, and a Corps level Warifighter exercise in counter-fire headquarters as a battle captain.

After that stint I was a naval NSFS liason officer on the 2nd Infantry Division (2ID) staff at Camp Red Cloud, ROK for one year in 2002. 2ID is responsible for counter-fire on the peninsula.

I can say with certainty that you are off base in most every way and this is why:

There are two type of artillery systems that can range parts of Seoul, they are 240mm MRLs and 170mm canons. These systems are primarily located in fixed sites for their own protection. Unfortunately for them this means they can be found easily and targeted. While the underground facilities may save them, these systems wouldn't be of much use if for instance the doors leading to the firing points were disabled by artillery and/or bombing. The majority of nKPA arty is smaller in caliber and is therefore incapable of ranging Seoul proper, and in many cases not even the northern suburbs. It is just too far south.

They can aim all they want at Seoul, not many of them will reach. Next, as to the accuracy, Artillery guys like to talk about five requirements for accurate predicted fire, they are:

1) Weapon location - Where your gun system is.
2) Target location - Where the item you want to make go away is.
3) Weapon and ammunition data - Muzzle velocity for a given powder lot number and charge. Also, number of rounds fired by a given gun. Each time a round goes out of the tube, the characteristics of the tube change and need to be taken into account.
4) Common survey - All of your guns in a battery are laid on a common azimuth. One lone gun firing with many others missing won't acheive desired effects. Artillery works best when fires are massed.
5) Accurate met - This is a meteorological survey of the surrounding area to determine air densities and where they are layered.

We are much better equipped to figure those five things out. North Korea will know #1. #2 depends on the target - we aren't wedded to fixed sites and once we move they will have issues finding us, #3 is where they will have issues. They will have really old data unless they take their guns out from their positions and fire them. #4 is probably a given considering they are in fixed positions and #5 I don't see why they wouldn't have this.

As to tracking shells, we have the AN/TPQ-36 and AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder radars. The Q-36 focuses on high angle fires (mortars) in the close (brigade) fight. Q-37 radars focus on other artillery systems both cannon and rocket in an effort to make them go away. They are phased-array radar systems that can pick up one or a number of systems firing while extrapolating the point of impact and point of origin of the rounds an then automatically generate a call for fire to friendly guns against the point of origin before the shells from the first salvo have even landed. So while this is a rather popular myth, it is not supported by fact.

In the next several years you will also begin to see the emergence of a new defensive weapon system for mitigation of indirect fires and that is the Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser. MTHEL is a high powered chemical laser mounted on a mobile platform consisting of a pair of HEMTTs (the big 8x8 trucks) that uses its own infrared telescope and inputs from nearby FireFinder radars to track incoming shells and rockets, and then engage and destroy them in mid-flight with a few million watts of optical energy. This may sound like science fiction to you but I assure you it is real and it is imminent. Once MTHEL arrives in force, not even an initial salvo of arty will ever land south of the DMZ because it will be destroyed mid-flight. As for the threat of TBMs, we have the Patriot. Its capabilities are obscene. One Patriot battalion deployed and operating in weapons-free mode can completely shut down airspace for a radius of approximately 200 nautical miles laterally and an altitude beyond which any aircraft or TBM operates at vertically (that number remains classified).

There are other flaws with your analysis that I dont have time to address right now, but you really don't seem to have a functional grasp of the peninsula's topography and relevant geographical features. There are two invasion corridors that probe southward from about four kilometers south of the DMZ and they are surrounded by mountainous terrain. Armor probing through there would be a classic turkey shoot for CAS aircraft and Apaches from Red Cloud and Osan AFB, which is close by. The bridges along those roads are also mined, as well as the mountainous walls surrounding them, so the corridors could/would be closed if need be, preventing an armored push southward. In all likelihood the massive rush south often spoken about would be bottlenecked and halted before reaching the Imjin river, at which point it would not be able to cross the bridges due to the fact that 2ID/UNSK retains the ability to destroy them in an emergency. We are well-prepared for this sort of thing because you don't spend 50+ years staring at each other in a cease-fire without making plans in case the other side gets itchy.

During my time living in Uijongbu I personally worked with all of this. I can try to answer some questions of you like, but I have been quite busy as of late and have little time to spare so you'll have to forgive me if I take too long.

Ok let me start... :cool:

"Wasn’t it a stalemate?"




Anyone know that last time a country with Nuclear Weapons was invaded??
*tick* *tock* *tick* *tock*
Its never happened! Who would risk it??






Um ok:

1. India , Pakistan
2. Russian war with China in the 70s... when they tried to cross the border into russia.
3. Iran.. just now... or do you live under a rock... "the iranian people should and want to be free" yey lets bomb them to oblivion ..
4... Cuba.. bay of pigs... they had nuclear silos set up at that point.
5. Falkland Isles when argentina invaded British territory .. britain had some nukes back then
6. America... Hey their at war with the invisable people in G.w's head... SOMEONE must have invaded them...they have nukes to.

The point is.. anyone who has nukes will never use them the only person who seems to think they will is Tom Clancy that weirdo who writes about far fetched military fiascos.