Hi,
I'm giving a speech in front of a thousand people in two weeks and am completely stuffed. The subject is on the environment and I'm looking for some facts to use.

I need to know:

How big will the ozone hole be in 100 years?

What the expected tempreature rise will be for victoria.

Three or four major cities that will probably be under water if nothing is done.

Now, of course, I know the ozone hole appears to be closing and that global warming might be natural. But I need worse case scenarios so that i can get my message across. Anything would be helpful and advice on how to write/deliver a successful speech would be nice too. Thanks a lot,
Donna.

There are a few things about the ozone hole. For one thing, it's seasonal. Since most of the reactions that destroy ozone are in some way light dependant, the ozone hole is only large in the summer (Sept-March). The reason for that being, the light intensity picks up around that time of year, and there is more direct sunlight...especially UV wavelengths. Also, since there is insufficient light during the winter months (that the Southern Hemisphere experiences), there is an accumulation of chemicals that lead to ozone depletion, which all become reactive at once when the sunlight is sufficient.

Second, it's hard to tell how large the hole will be in one hundred years. Measures can be taken to keep it the same size, or reduce it's size, although drastic; but, it could also be bigger.

The reason it looked as though it was smaller last year (2002 for those bad at subtraction), was because the hole split into two 'lobes' for some reason. This caused a more diffuse thinning, and a poorly defined hole.

If you want more info on the reactions/reactants that destroy ozone, just ask, and I'll do my best. I am taking an atmospheric chem course for my undergrad, and this is a big topic. Also ask if you need clarification.

I'll let the geologists talk about the underwater thing, and the temperature increase, although I doubt there will be any solid answers, as they are difficult situations to estimate.

Best of luck.

If you want to be politically correct, then go ahead with what your saying. If you want to say what's right and not very well known(not for want of trying) than you can tell them that the ozone hole is a natural fluctuation in levels due to the unique atmospheric conditions of the Antatrctic, and further research into prehistoric levels will help tell what the pattern is(oh no! CFCs aren't causing it! aaaahhhhh!:rolleyes: ). You could mention how stupid they will look in 100 years when they're proven wrong. Mentioning that there is a large pile of data against the currently popular theory will turn heads.

As for warming, again, a little bit of research will show the other side, which is not politically and industrially backed, and most likely correct, that this is a natural climate fluctuation. Again, you can say how horribly correct(shudders)they are, or make them look very stupid. It depends on what response you give.

As for temperature and the ozone phenomenon in 100 years, you need data, which will be models(most likely made by the political scientists mentioned above) which shouldbe available somewhere online. For what's underwater, you need to know the amount of ocean rise, and the altitude fo the cities(mentioning how many people live in the cities might increase the drama. Things like this need to know what will affect the audience the best).

Whatever you do, have fun!

The Ozone level mostly has to do with how much harmful radiation (UV and the like) is absorbed by the atmosphere... not temperature as far as I know. Thats Global Warming... caused by an increase in CO2, Sulfides, and Water Vapor.

The worse case would be that the polar ice caps and all the glaciers will melt and that will cause the oceans to rise over 20 feet! Now if we were using water to create hydrogen we would be using some of that to fuel our economy.

Except the hydrogen will go straight back out into the environment as water. Besides, it would be a small amount compared to the amount of water in the ice caps.

How did the speech go?