Originally I wanted to title this thread something like this:

Is black people's social ability to survive better than whites' concerning the Iraq war?

I read a year or so ago, that once the Iraqi occupation started to get messy and US soldiers died there in bigger and bigger numbers, the recruiting offices started to report less and less black youngsters signing up for military services.

So it looks like that blacks got the logical deduction (signing up >> most likely a tour in Iraq >>> higher chance of getting killed or hurt) faster than white people.
Sure enough, they just published the racial demographics of the Iraqi war dead, and it is only 10% for blacks, although their part in the American society is 12%.

So does this mean that blacks have a better understanding and avoiding of the situation? Their ability to survive is better given the same circumstances?

Maybe...

I think there is questionable statistical significance.

Not that there's a huge difference between 12 and 10%.

Also note that blacks constitute about 12% of the US population, compared to whites, who constitute 80% of the US population. So if they were equally as good at not getting hurt, assuming both groups are enlisted at the same rate, wouldn't you expect 6.6 times more white people to get hurt?

Well, there is a statistical signifficance. Out of 3000 dead, the 2% represents 60 blacks not dying because they recognized the danger of signing up for military services.

Again, this tendency (less black recruits) were noted more than a year ago...

Well, there is a statistical signifficance.
I think what Facial is driving at is that 2% isn't a big enough difference to support your hypothesis: that black people's "social ability to survive" is better than white people's. If it were 10 or 20% maybe you'd have case. 2% could be due to just random bad (or good) luck.

I understood what he was driving at. Again, the tendency of blacks not signing up for military service once the dying started was noted long time ago, these numbers are just the confirmations.
I can look for those recruiting numbers, but they were statistically signifficant....

Again, the tendency of blacks not signing up for military service once the dying started was noted long time ago, these numbers are just the confirmations.

I think you'll find about the same drop in enlistments with any race after the dying began.

Baron Max

This is somewhat strange - could there be other variables, such as the shuffle-ups on which divisions or brigades get sent there or not?

This might cluster a random population into quantized parts - many regions of the US have homogenous white majorities.

Originally I wanted to title this thread something like this:

Is black people's social ability to survive better than whites' concerning the Iraq war?

I read a year or so ago, that once the Iraqi occupation started to get messy and US soldiers died there in bigger and bigger numbers, the recruiting offices started to report less and less black youngsters signing up for military services.

So it looks like that blacks got the logical deduction (signing up >> most likely a tour in Iraq >>> higher chance of getting killed or hurt) faster than white people.
Sure enough, they just published the racial demographics of the Iraqi war dead, and it is only 10% for blacks, although their part in the American society is 12%.

So does this mean that blacks have a better understanding and avoiding of the situation? Their ability to survive is better given the same circumstances?
Why is it so important to know this?

Why is it so important to know this?
Psychology.

You have no proof the whites signing up don't recognise the danger.
Indeed there is a bizarre cultural quirk amongst white people known as "courage", they can exhibit a most peculiar behaviour which involves recognising a risk and confronting it regardless.
This trait can also be seen in some dogs.

It's more of a tradition for poor white people to sign up with the army. Black people tend to go more for non-combat duties. I read this some time ago somewhere. I can't be arsed to look it up.


As for your statistics freaks. It doesn't really matter what percentage of the population is white or black. You willl have to look at the percentages of the population that actually CAN join the military. No need to include white pensioners living in Florida since they cannot really sign up for instance.

No need to include white pensioners living in Florida since they cannot really sign up for instance.
Or their black counterparts next door. Let's assume that eligibility percentages reflect the percentages in the wider population.

It still needs to be demonstrated that (a) the observed drop in black recruitment, and (b) the observed 'deficit' in black war deaths are causally linked to black 'survivability'.

So far we have observations and an hypothesis. Now it needs to be demonstrated that the observed effects stem from the proposed cause and not from anything else - eg a drop in black recruitment because of increased alternative employment opportunities in black areas; a 'deficit' in black war deaths because 'Iraqi soldiers are more likely to shoot whites than blacks'.

Syzygys?

Just listen to any African-American comedian a few times and you'll here the same story: White people have no sense. They can't make horror movies about black people because if a bunch of black people were in a house and started hearing creepy noises from the attic they would all run out and go to somebody else's house. White people grab tiny kitchen knives and one single flashlight and run up the stairs into the attic.

I think Iraq just proves that these guys are right.

Just listen to any African-American comedian a few times and you'll here the same story: White people have no sense. They can't make horror movies about black people because if a bunch of black people were in a house and started hearing creepy noises from the attic they would all run out and go to somebody else's house. White people grab tiny kitchen knives and one single flashlight and run up the stairs into the attic.

I think Iraq just proves that these guys are right.


Lol that's the funniest thing I've read in a while.

I've always been a fan of gruesome horror movies. And I was terribly afraid of the dark when I was little (too much imagination). I always thought Americans must be the bravest people in the world because they always ran towards the weird stuff.:D

I think you'll find about the same drop in enlistments with any race after the dying began.


Nope, wrong as usual. Sure, the absolute numbers decreased too, but here we are talking of relative numbers of the different colored new recruits compared to each other.

Since the whole pie is 100% and the black slice of the pie started to decrease, one other color had to replace the missing part. That was white, latinos and quite a few Asians. (biggest relative increase)

Why is it so important to know this?

It shows that in the long lasting marathon called LIFE, how different races react to different kind of challenges...

Just listen to any African-American comedian a few times and you'll here the same story:

This is a good point. A black comedian had a similar routine about vulcano eruption in Hawaii. All the blacks started to leave, and the white ones grabed their video cameras.... :)

That's hilarious, SamCDKey.

It still needs to be demonstrated that (a) the observed drop in black recruitment, and (b) the observed 'deficit' in black war deaths are causally linked to black 'survivability'.

Good point, but you guys are LAZY!!! I typed "less black recruits" into google:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A18461-2005Mar8.html

This is from 2005 March:

"Since fiscal 2000, when African Americans made up 23.5 percent of Army recruits, their numbers have fallen steadily to less than 14 percent in this fiscal year, officials said. A similar trend has reduced the number of female Army recruits, who have dropped from 22 percent in 2000 to about 17 percent of this year's new soldiers."

That is an incredible 40% decrease!!! Well, we are talking about different times, but in 2000 blacks were overrepresented in the army by the factor of 2 and by the time of the article their 14% was almost the same as their 12% representation in the population...

Here is who made up the missing blacks:

"Hispanics have increased from 10.4 percent of new recruits in 2000 to 13 percent in 2004; whites went from 61 percent in 2000 to 65 percent in 2004; and Asians or Pacific Islanders made up less than 1 percent of new soldiers in 2000 but nearly 5 percent in 2004."

Actually, the drop was continuous since 2000, so one could argue that it wasn't the Iraq war that caused the big drop. Any sociologist here?

here is another piece of info showing when the shooting starts, blacks stop to sign up:

"Blacks . In FY 1998, Blacks comprised nearly 20 percent of enlisted recruits, approximately 5 percentage points more than in the civilian population (14 percent). The Army continues to have the highest percentage of Black accessions, 23 percent in FY 1998. In the aftermath of Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm and in the midst of the drawdown (FY 1991), there were lower proportions of Black recruits than in previous years. "

http://www.dod.gov/prhome/poprep98/html/2-race_ethnicity.html

Furthermore, but we already know this:

"among 2005 Army recruits than they are in the total recruit population. The change in proportional representation of blacks among military recruits is a notable change from the 2003 cohort to the 2004 and 2005 cohorts. In the last three quarters of the 2003 recruit year, blacks were largely overrepresented, with a recruit-to-population ratio of 1.32 among all recruits and 1.44 among Army recruits. For 2004, these ratios were 1.19 and 1.17, respectively. In 2005, they were 1.07 and 0.96, respectively, which indicates that in the past two years of military recruits, the proportion of blacks in the military approached the proportion of blacks in the population."

http://www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/cda06-09.cfm

If you are still with me, here is an interesting findings coming out of the numbers:

According to the deathrate of 10% blacks in Iraq, blacks are actually better avoiding death in the battlefield, since they are underrepresented compared to their numbers in the military forces. The recruit % is 14% but since historically they have been overrepresented, the all over black ratio is higher, probably around 18%. It used to be quarter.

This brings up the question: why black soldiers die less than other ethnicity groups? Are their survivor instincts better?? I don't know, but the 7-8% difference looks to me statistically signifficant...

This brings up the question: why black soldiers die less than other ethnicity groups? Are their survivor instincts better?? I don't know, but the 7-8% difference looks to me statistically signifficant...

Well, you're going to have to do some more indepth study ....what's the role of the ethnicities in the combat zones? Are blacks making up the normal proportion of combat troops? Or are they mostly in support roles behind the lines of combat? Without knowing that, all the stats on deaths ain't gonna' do you no good at all.

Baron Max

Congrats Max, those are very good points, finally from you...

Well, there is a statistical signifficance. Out of 3000 dead, the 2% represents 60 blacks not dying because they recognized the danger of signing up for military services.

Again, this tendency (less black recruits) were noted more than a year ago...

Thats not really true though, there are more minorities in the military than anyone else. Black is not a good description because hispanics can be black too, as can Africans from Africa who arent even American but who are in the US armed forces.

If you are still with me, here is an interesting findings coming out of the numbers:

According to the deathrate of 10% blacks in Iraq, blacks are actually better avoiding death in the battlefield, since they are underrepresented compared to their numbers in the military forces. The recruit % is 14% but since historically they have been overrepresented, the all over black ratio is higher, probably around 18%. It used to be quarter.

This brings up the question: why black soldiers die less than other ethnicity groups? Are their survivor instincts better?? I don't know, but the 7-8% difference looks to me statistically signifficant...

I doubt that any ethnic group has "better" soldiers. It might be about WHICH blacks volunteered as compared to whites.

Maybe the best most hardcore of blacks volunteered. Who knows where these volunteers came from, some of them might have been gang members.

Sure there are some white gang members who might have volunteered too, but it depends more on the generation of troops, I heard the original gulf war had the best troops ever, even better than todays.

If you are still with me, here is an interesting findings coming out of the numbers:

According to the deathrate of 10% blacks in Iraq, blacks are actually better avoiding death in the battlefield, since they are underrepresented compared to their numbers in the military forces. The recruit % is 14% but since historically they have been overrepresented, the all over black ratio is higher, probably around 18%. It used to be quarter.

This brings up the question: why black soldiers die less than other ethnicity groups? Are their survivor instincts better?? I don't know, but the 7-8% difference looks to me statistically signifficant...

Maybe.