"The Pentagon (news - web sites) is setting up a stock-market style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would win profits. "
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=6&u=/ap/20030729/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/terror_market_10

I'm no expert on the predictive abilities of markets, but it does make sense that if there was some kind of information floating around about an attack a market would react. The massive trading of airline stocks just before September 11 is evidence of that. Of course the market would also react to false information.
Beyond all that, the first thing that struck me was the huge potential for foul play. Couldn't an investor just bet that an attack will occur and then carry out the attack himself? Another possibility is that an investor could just make up a rumor that a terrorist attack will occur in Israel tommorow. Since he knows it is false he bets against it and rakes in all the bucks from the fools that he duped.

Wow. Talk about a step in an odd direction.

More ... input ... needed ....

As it is my head is about to explode. I'll be out making sure it's not a superstition that destroys me ....

:m:,
Tiassa :cool:

I went out on the web to do some quick reading because this whole idea doesn't make any sense to me.

I found that my knowledge of futures wasn't as bad as I feared (http://www.rma.usda.gov/pubs/rme/fsh_7.html), but I still don't get it.

How can this operate as a futures market?

Oh, hell ... let me try getting it from the horse's mouth: Policy Analysis Market (http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/).

:m:,
Tiassa :cool:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3106559.stm

Now I'm beginning to get scared:eek:

As though it's not enough that they can and do covertly manipulate the world's politik, they now want to give the opportunity to any crazed individual to manipulate just about anything that can be manipulated on this planet.

Example 1: I bet $10000 @ 5c to the dollar that some personality is going to get whacked, I pay another 5-10 grand to hire some hitman and... BOOM BOOM! I'm nearly a million dollars richer! And I would bet another $10000 that I wouldn't be the only one planning such a strategy... before you know it, every famous or important personality will have a price on their heads... from multiple sources!

Example 2: But why should I carry on? You get the picture.

It beggars belief my friends, I'm absolutely astounded that this has come to pass. The people that came up with this idea must be either truly crazy or truly evil.

Be brave, for a dangerous new world order is descending!:mad:

The house always wins

This Casino is not the Mob's or Indian's,
its soley the Pentagon's.
You can bet on murder and mayhem
its better than stocks or bonds.
Its real live blood money for us, not them.
So step up to the plate and bet.
Its a sure thing the smart money can't condemn.
Grab your VISA card and get set.

Not having the guts,you'd have to be nuts
not to bet on reliable death
You know they'll die anyway
so why would you walk away
to pray for their very last breathe?

If you want to be rich and true to your aim
don't be late or I am sure you'll regret
all those people weeping and dieing in vain.
without playing the future's market
with markups and margins of suffering and pain.
So place your bets again and again
If you still don't get it
- let me be plain
you can get a cut but the house always wins


.................................................. ...............

DH 2003


.................................................. ...............

The real story with the promise of real cash for you below: -

Pentagon's Futures Market Plan Condemned
Mon Jul 28, 7:46 PM ET Add White House - AP Cabinet & State to My Yahoo!


By KEN GUGGENHEIM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The Pentagon (news - web sites) is setting up a stock-market style system in which investors would bet on terror attacks, assassinations and other events in the Middle East. Defense officials hope to gain intelligence and useful predictions while investors who guessed right would win profits.


Two Democratic senators demanded Monday the project be stopped before investors begin registering this week. "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," Sen. Ron Wyden (news, bio, voting record), D-Ore., said...


On the Net:

Policy Analysis Market: www.policyanalysismarket.org

DARPA's FutureMap Web site: www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm

This is getting beyond Sick.


http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/07/29/terrorist.market.ap/index.html


What is next?

People still wonder why the world sees us as Bullyes and war mongers?

There were apparently some private companies who spent a lot of money to come up with this nasty little scheme. If the pentagon drops it, I am "betting" that the gambling industry will adopt this abandoned new born baby.

Well I'm very glad to see it's been scrapped. But really, what sort of warped minds came up with this idea in the first place? Could any rational, sane person actually have conceive this?

I think it shows us that crazy ideas are probably being implemented all the time by all these secret government agencies. The craziness has become so commonplace amongst the rank and file that they obviously thought that the public would lap it up, unopposed, just like the hypnotised zombies lapping it up behind closed doors of secret government offices.

Another thing this guy at the Pentagon wanted to do, was to be able to spy on everybody electronically (presumably by hijacking everyones computers). But I think that idea was scrapped too. But man, I just know that this will be done eventually and anything you say on a messageboard or a weblog, could and will be used against you. Be careful what you say.

Freedom of speech it seems, is now in its final winter.

Tiassa your the second person in 3 hours whose pointed me towards that policy analysis market url, and both times it hasnt worked. Anyone any ideas why?

Actually the Pentagon now solicits ideas from the private sector other than for weapons systems. It looks like the boys from Enron teamed up with the guy who just created the video game "Postal II" to come up with a real life terrorism based market investment plan.

I wonder how many pension plans would have been invested in that sick turkey of an idea.

Just think, terrorists could have bankrupted that market by simply doing nothing.

Good gawd how insane.

Sure, we can relax, it's been abandoned. But just the thought that they came up with something so totally bizzare is scary as hell.

Actually PHD economists are familiar with all sorts of bizarre future's markets.

As far as benefits:
The pentagon could even track leads of those planning "insider trading" to stop certain terrorist acts.
The problem was the program did not define who would be allowed to play and how.
Something as big as ebay would be too big, only Middle East analysts would be too small.
But personally I feel it would be as grotesque as the verse I wrote above in a prior post.

Chicken hawk Wolfie backed off.

"Repeat, operation stereotype muslim people, is cancelled."

Not cancelled, just deeper.

I just realized that Admiral John poindexter, who was in charge of this "Futures" market. is the old Reagan/Weinberger cohort who was involved up to his neck in the Iran/Contra scandal of the 1980's

I read in the paper that he will resign as director of the now defunct "market", but will still remain in charge of domestic surveillance.

http://www.hangoverguide.com/over/factbook/

The link below contains an interesting first person account of the inner workings of the pentagon.

Apparently cross agency cliques of a few, primarily civilian, people are taking control, of course we already knew that. But Her articles do give
more details on the innerworkings of the Bush administration than I have previously encountered.

http://www.ohio.com/mld/beaconjournal/6424570.htm

Other interesting pentagon related articles by the same author may be found at:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/kwiatkowski/kwiatkowski-arch.html

http://www.angelfire.com/md2/customviolins/bloodoil.jpg