A question: Have N. Korea and the US policies towards each other left this situation with only two out comes; either side backs down, or war?

Now, I can't see the Bush administration backing down and coming to talks, that would be an international embarrassment and a signal to the rest of the world that their present policy has been wrong. Would also signal that extortion works.

I also can't see N. Korea backing down. That would also be an embarrassment.
Also, the North said that sanctions would be an act of war and that they would retaliate in kind. Now sanctions are in and if the North don't retaliate in kind that will be a show to the rest of the world that their word is water.

Now, North Korea is desperate, all the actions to date show that they are becoming more and more desperate.
From a N. Korean perspective, is war worse off for them then suffocating slowly under heavy sanctions?

If they choose war, i'm sure they would have the means to take Seoul pretty quickly. Long term the US could defeat them, but not without a national draft, and can the American people stomach a national draft after Iraq?

To me, the chips seem to be slightly in favour of N. Korea, if that is so, I beleive they have a crazy enough leader to try and take advantage of it.

What do you think?

How is testing nukes, as all nuke powers do, make NK desperate? They have nuke technology and have every right to test them, as all nuke powers have before. This doesn't make them desperate. The US is scared of countries they can't invade on a whim. W/o nukes US troops will be rounding up your family and spiriting them off to a secret torture prison if nukes aren't used as a deterrent.
The US needs war to keep military contract spending up and keeping the sheeple terrified. The worst thing that could happen to the Bush mafia is peace on the Korean Peninsula. (or 'peninchula' as the Mighty GW says.)

Are you implying that they have tested the nuke for purely scientific purposes, when before they tested it they claimed that if the US came to bilateral talks they wouldn't do it?

No, the test was purely a politcal move, they are trying to get the US to bilateral talks. I feel he is starting to feel pressure from the N. Korea elite and he fears being overthrown if he can't start getting some foreign cash.

What the US is scared of is a nation geared entirely for war with a million man army and a population who worships their leader as an actual diety. A nation with dozens of death camps, where doubt in the powers that be gets not just you but your entire family slain. A nation that has declared that it will conquer an ally of ours by any means necessary... and is unlikely to stop there.

And you wonder why the United States is worried. Unless we end this quickly, I doubt we will be getting out of this without seeing South Korea either enslaved or on fire and Japan missing a city or two. North Korea is performing blackmail pure and simple. Give in to their will or they will leave as much of the world as they can reach nothing but rot and ash.

What the US is scared of is a nation geared entirely for war with a million man army and a population who worships their leader as an actual diety. A nation with dozens of death camps, where doubt in the powers that be gets not just you but your entire family slain. A nation that has declared that it will conquer an ally of ours by any means necessary... and is unlikely to stop there.

And you wonder why the United States is worried. Unless we end this quickly, I doubt we will be getting out of this without seeing South Korea either enslaved or on fire and Japan missing a city or two.The US isn't capable of ending anything there. We are capable of fucking things up even more by building this arms race though. It's a regional problem for SK and Japan, Russia & China to deal with. The US track record of 'dealing' with global conflicts is abysmal. If 3rd World rebels in Iraq & Afghanistan are able to bog us down in a no-win war we haven't a chance against an army of 1million highly disciplined enemy troops. You know it, I know it and the American people know it.

Clockwood, I totally agree. Can you see a realistic way out of this?

I can't see a way out that would appease all sides....

Actually, Genji, the US forces are geared better to fight N. Korea then the type of warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan. N.Korea has conventional arms and tactics, even if it is in greater numbers.

But that still dosen't say they would do it easily, it would be long and painful.
2500 US soldiers dead in Iraq in what 4 years? In Korea they would loose that in the first minute.

Actually, Genji, the US forces are geared better to fight N. Korea then the type of warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan. N.Korea has conventional arms and tactics, even if it is in greater numbers.

But that still dosen't say they would do it easily, it would be long and painful.
2500 US soldiers dead in Iraq in what 4 years? In Korea they would loose that in the first minute.Both good points. NK is a marked national enemy with uniforms and flags while the rebels in Iraq are international fighters without anything but homemade bombs and guns. NK is a diversion for the war criminals in Washington that created the war on Iraq. We have no reason to believe we would be successful in a conflict with NK. The US fled them once already in a standoff.

It's a problem the US needs to deal with, but I don't think a war is inevitable. In fact, I think it's highly unlikely. The sanctions North Korea is getting are not very complete. The American press made a big deal out of halting of luxury goods, but the Chinese/Korean border is busy with traffic, and the Chinese did not concede to searching ships at sea. We depend on the Chinese, and we are not in a position to bargain, since China owns so much of our debt.

North Korea is in a strong position. Bush will try to look strong while doing nothing, kind of like in Iraq. There might be plans to attack Iran, however. This would be as crazy as attacking NK, so it would need some kind of justification, possibly fabricated, possibly the result of secretly leaving ourselves open to some degree of attack. The difference is that instead of partnering ourselves with China, our partner would be Israel. Also we already have assets in the area.

On the plus side, it seems NK's latest test was plutonium from their reactors, not enriched uranium. The test was also not very large. We know about how much plutonium they have due to Clinton's previous deal. This means their program is in it's infancy.

Well in that situation spider, how far to you think the North will push the US before they pushed too far?

If they test again(if they have the means to), what would the US do then?
Sanction are already down, and they wouldn't dare strike first, so where does that leave them?

Nk wants to be a player, that means going nuclear. They will test again. We can't do much of anything. Sanctions could be stronger.
The North doesn't want us to attack them, but they know we won't sacrifice South Korea and relations with China in the process.
It's just as much a stalemate as since the end of the war, which never officially ended.

Spider, what happens when the North finally realise that the US wont allow them to be a player? At least the US under Bush anyway.

Spider, what happens when the North finally realise that the US wont allow them to be a player? At least the US under Bush anyway.The US doesn't have the authority to declare who is a player and who isn't.

On a lighter note:
http://www.break.com/index/toughest_job_in_north_korea.html

Pheegan has hit the nail on the head the US is ticked that its global reach is showing limitations and whats worse the people of the world are realizing that. The US can no longer take strong action against NK without further destroying its respect in the UN, NK can only be punished by severed ties with china and other surrounding countries

There is little doubt that we could win over North Korea in very little time using the right tactics. The problem here is that we would have to set half the country on fire and essentially sterilize everything within miles of the border. There is also some doubt on if we could do so before NK could at least make an initial bombardment of the south. This is the result of some of their earlier attempts at blackmail by holding the south hostage.
The US doesn't have the authority to declare who is a player and who isn't.
Authority is an illusion because there is no one who can offer or deny it... except by an act of force. There is only desireable and undesireable.
Lets just say I feel it would be very undesireable to let spikey-haired Kim continue to hold a knife to the throats of SK and Japan a minute longer.

Besides, it's mostly just a distraction from what's happening in Iraq and at home.

Hmmm... I thought some of your fellow barking moon-bats were saying that it was Iraq that was the distraction from everything else. Which is it?

Iraq might be a mess but as far as I know none of the insurgents there are going to have nukes pointed at anybody anytime soon. People, mostly people other than our soldiers, die and what is for a war a pretty slow pace in Iraq. With North Korea it is quite possible that all the casualties from the Iraq War to date, even the absurdly high numbers given by some of the nuttier sources, could be equaled and surpassed in a single week if things heat up. You tell me which we need to keep our eye on more.

I agree clockwood, it would be undesireable to continue to let him threaten the way he does.
If I lived in Seoul, i'd be rather worried about what N. Korea think all this will achieve, considering they could level Seoul in an hour with just their artillery thats already set up there.

So what do you do??

Another question, why would N. Korea be stating things like 'that we will view sanctions as a decleration of war, and retaliate in kind' when they knew that sanctions being imposed was going to happen. They backed them selves into a corner with where the only way out is to go back on their word or war.
If they really don't want war, it would seem strange that they would make such comments.

Could it be that he is getting towards the end of his life, and he wants to see this military that he has spend so much on in action before he goes?
And by testing his nukes and having sanctions imposed he is purposely positioning his nation so that war seems like the best option?

Does anyone think this guy cares about N. Korea after he's dead?

Just thinking out loud......

Maybe the stage is being set. China wants to go to war with the US, but needs a good excuse. NK needs food and a better economy to one day rejoin S Korea. China let's NK stir the shit, the US gets upset and China ally with NK.

Or maybe not :)

There is little doubt that we could win over North Korea in very little time using the right tactics. The problem here is that we would have to set half the country on fire and essentially sterilize everything within miles of the border. There is also some doubt on if we could do so before NK could at least make an initial bombardment of the south. This is the result of some of their earlier attempts at blackmail by holding the south hostage.

I'm not so sure. The people know next to nothing of the outside world. They're led to believe North Korea is paradise on earth. The population will do whatever they're told to do, out of fear if not respect. That's 22 Million people. Their military is huge and there are thousands of underground bunkers to store military equipment/fight, etc.

I think it would be extremely messy. The only hope would be a revolution of the people, but it seems unlikely, since they know little of the outside world, are indoctrinated all their life and live in constant fear of being sent to a camp. Better the devil you know?

I can't agree that China wants a war.......yet.

China is on its way to becoming the lone superpower, and they will do this peacefully. They don't want a war to mess up there staggering growth.

In 100 years, China will be the worlds lone superpower, with India close behind then the US. You can hold back nations with such a population and that are modernising at the rate those two are.

Its inevitable, that is why the US is snuggeling up to China with trade and so forth, it will be there life blood in the future.

I was kidding, btw ;)

Yes, I agree. Almost anyway. China's GDP is probably going to overtake America's in 10 or 15 years.

In regards to fighting a war in N.korea a major factor in the US favor is air power. 1 million troops big woop. B1's, B2's and B-52's non stop can sort out positions an an instant with the use of precision weapons. Air strikes can immediatly wipe out N.koreas ability to even funtion as a military by targeting key positions. And if the US was talking about a premptive tactical nuke strike in Iran not long ago, without them even testing a bomb, im sure there is no hesitation with N.korea, if it means keeping its close economical allies protected. Park to battle groups off the coast of N.korea and watch them shiver.

Air power only gets you so far, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan have all proved that.
If air power did it alone, there would be no debate over what happens next, as the US would be dropping them.

You need troops on the ground, and in the case of Korea, hundreds of thousands of troops, and that's why the US wont go military on them.

In Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan we didn't use airpower to its fullest as that would kill too many noncombatants... a thought that would have been utterly alien in WW2. You only need ground troops if you want to take land. Not if you just want to break the enemy so badly it will be fifty years before they even look at you again.

Fair enough

However,

Afgan was only a lead up to Iraq. A petty war that led to the door step of saddam. If the US was really after Osama why did they send only 10,000 into Afgan and over 200,000 to Iraq?

Oil...

B2's flew 31 hour round trips to drop the first bombs on Iraq. Air power eliminated the once 4th biggest defence force in the worlds air force before they even got off the ground.

And this was before any ground offensive was launched.

As you said before, in Iraq we are fightiong against insurgents hiding with civilians with AK's and home made bombs.

Hardly a position to use the US air might effectivly when you are dealing with populated areas.

N.korea would be a military V military tactical war. N. Korea has one city, the rest is mainly baron. Air power would suit such an enviroment with no civilians around. Just N.korean troops trecking over the country side on there way to the south.

Tactical nukes a prime manor to deplete massive troop movements.

food for thought...

Its the media that ensures all air power will be used pin-pointedly.
This day and age, spare total war, you can't go carpet bombing like in WW2, and that would be the same in Korea.
If they used air power, would be in the same context as Iraq and so forth.

The media makes the military accountable for any non-comabatant deaths.

The media makes the military accountable for any non-comabatant deaths.
Yeah, and this is a serious strain on their effectiveness.
I wonder if north korea's media would have any say in how Kim Jong Il conducted himself in war?
Don't think so. And I don't think any kindergarten in any leafy suburb of middle america would be off limits.
I would like to think the military would start taking less notice of the media once things became seriously threatening to success.
Turning north korea into a vacant carpark hopefully ranks above surrendering to north korean rule, but it is a worry.

I can't agree that China wants a war.......yet.

China is on its way to becoming the lone superpower, and they will do this peacefully. They don't want a war to mess up there staggering growth.

In 100 years, China will be the worlds lone superpower, with India close behind then the US. You can hold back nations with such a population and that are modernising at the rate those two are.

Its inevitable, that is why the US is snuggeling up to China with trade and so forth, it will be there life blood in the future.
100 years before China is a superpower? I say 30, at most. The USA has 2 or 3 more decades of primacy left.

Yeah, and this is a serious strain on their effectiveness.
I wonder if north korea's media would have any say in how Kim Jong Il conducted himself in war?
Don't think so. And I don't think any kindergarten in any leafy suburb of middle america would be off limits.
I would like to think the military would start taking less notice of the media once things became seriously threatening to success.
Turning north korea into a vacant carpark hopefully ranks above surrendering to north korean rule, but it is a worry.

First of all without the media scrutiny of the military they would in sense be able to do whatever they wanted without any major repercussions. Your right North Korea's media wouldn't have any say in how Kim Jong Il conducted himself but that's only because the media is run by Kim Jong Il. Your right a kindergarten would probably be in the limits of Kim Jong Il however first of all he can't even imagine of reaching any 'suburb of middle America' in this stage of their missile program. Second of all this is the difference between us and Kim Jong Il, he would purposely and without any regret bomb civilian targets, however I like to think when we do it, it's a mistake that we do regret. Right now the North Korean threat is still in it's early stages and due to this they pose no real threat to us now and we need to act accordingly and open direct negotiations with North Korea therefore hopefully avoiding a major conflict.

That's right, they don't pose a credible threat to the US at the moment, but they do to S Korea and Japan, and the only reason Japan dosen't have a decent military of their own is because the US has a defence treaty with them.

If the US doesn't address this situation the right way and get the nukes out of his hands, Japan will start to build up its military and you couldn't blame them for it.

War isn't inevitable with NK and Condi Rice already announced that the US doesn't have any intention of going to war with them. The US will simply add more sanctions to what has already been implemented for the past 40 years. NK didn't decide to go ahead with their nuke program as an offensive gesture but a defensive one. Bush pushed them over the edge by naming them in the 'axis of evil' (afghanisatn, iraq, NK). Now if I were minding my own business and someone suddenly put me on their hit list I would prepare myself. The US generally only engages when the odds are in their favor and enaging in a war close to Chinese borders would be a definite no-no. Anyway the US is over-extended with its troops scattered around the globe fighting for (*cough*) peace, freedom and democracy.

...... in the 'axis of evil' (afghanisatn, iraq, NK). .....

Hi Lucy,

thank you for your post

sorry to be padantic but it was Iran in the axis of evil

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Take care
zak