Two recent news items converge on this coming March as a really bad one for Iran.

The well-known and probably more credible one is the projected opening of the Iranian petroleum exchange. Pundits expect some bad effects for the United States on this one. See http://www.energybulletin.net/7707.html, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GH26Dj01.html as well as the slightly hysterical piece by Krassimir Petrov that has been quoted on this forum.

The other and less well-known is the allegation by the Foundation for Democracy in Iran that the Iranians plan on a nuclear test on or before March 20th. See http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20060119-075725-6399r and http://www.iran.org/. Probably complete bullshit but an interesting confluence of suggestions.

This march to war could easily arrive at its destination all too soon, and before anyone can call a halt.

My hunch is that this confluence spells out a disturbing potentiality, a very ugly possibility for American interests: The USA is poised to continue in simultaneous panic and denial about oil futures, and to persist in stomping counterproductively around the ME region, shooting ourselves with great bravado and precision- directly in both feet.

Iranian nukes are a laughable future threat, compared with the far more ominous near-term implications of conventional Iranian retaliation (to include direct and overt Iranian intervention in Iraq).

Americans fail to understand that Iran can triple the size of our deployment in Iraq at will and nearly overnight- and we would in such a situation be helpless stop them without commencing WW3 as the prime aggressor, reviled for all of history.

In our wake (in both senses of the word) Iran can actually enjoy all the flowery receptions we ever dreamed of- at least in the ostensible aid of their Shi'a brothers in Mesopotamia. Such a confrontation would certainly and simultaneously shut down the Straits of Hormuz, which would send the US economy into an instant tailspin. This would be accompanied by major instability cascading like a zipper right down the Shi'a-majority Gulf region, faster than Dubya can say "Oh, Shi'at".

Whatever belligerence America commits in our deep but unspoken oil panic from hence, Asian markets are certain to cut sweet new petroleum deals with Arabs and Persians, and commence eating our entire breakfast. Then lunch. Then dinner.

We are witnessing the makings of some incredibly stupid moves on the part of Our Fearless Leader & Co.

Along this warpath Americans need to remind ourselves -and our representatives- that there are alternatives to wearing the black hats, and losing this showdown as a result. This is not a time for the art of war, but instead the art of The Deal.

While we still have friends residing above "our" oil, we had better turn this thing around, meaning the most deft and agile diplomacy in our history. We're not the only nation on the planet with lots of money anymore, which (after the smoke clears) will continue to make the world go 'round. With or without us.

This would be accompanied by major instability cascading like a zipper right down the Shi'a-majority Gulf region, faster than Dubya can say "Oh, Shi'at".

Lol! :D

- N