Refering to this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29 is there any point in the future you think it will become a reality?

I think there could indeed be some worth to such investigations. The problem is that the further you go back in time, the less information is available on the family or early life of a historical figure.

I changed the link, the new one is right though. It's about predicting the future using social systems + math. Anyways I think it's real cool and wanna use it to find a gf!

I changed the link, the new one is right though. It's about predicting the future using social systems + math. Anyways I think it's real cool and wanna use it to find a gf!

It's definately real. It's real enough that most of us can see it's the beginning of the end right now. However, no one will see what will happen in the future in enough detail to say we can stop something from happening. We simply can see all the possible threats based on the simple fact that humans are crazy monkeys, who will kill each other with weapons, whenever they have access to them.

It's definately real.
No. It's something invented by Isaac Asimov for his Foundation series of SF books.
From the link:
Psychohistory is the name of a fictional science,

No. It's something invented by Isaac Asimov for his Foundation series of SF books.
From the link:

No, actually, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory

Bugger - didn't see the other link on Wiki. But
from your link:
It combines the insights of psychotherapy with the research methodology of the social sciences to understand the emotional origin of the social and political behavior of groups and nations, past and present. This field of study is considered by some to have significant differences from the mainstream fields of history and psychology.
Hmmm, "considered by some" and "research methodology of the social sciences".
Hardly valid as a science.

And like DarksidZz said: he changed the link to the one he was talking about, Asimov's.

Doesn't anyone have any unique thoughts on this topic, come on I've always been fascinated by the theory of Psychohistory that Asimov proposed.

I have not come across this field before; but it sounds intriguing; any major works dealing with the concept?

I have not come across this field before; but it sounds intriguing; any major works dealing with the concept?

Greetings female :C~

There are no major works on this topic, I think mostly due to scientists thinking it's hopeless. You see when Asimov proposed this idea / concept in his novels it was a very fantastic and rather outlandish one. It propelled his novels to the heights of popularity but in exchange many thought him to imaginative to be taken seriously.

I believe with the advent of super computers it may be possible in the near future to have a machine designed solely to determine how history unfolds, then extrapolate this information into a cohesive formula for predicting it in the future.

For example we know 1+1 will always equal 2.. in the same way we know war results in deaths, we know economic troubles cause people to become depressed, etc... through analyzing these various facts the machine could learn what POSSIBLY might happen given a scenerio. It would use equations to represent these facts, then it would have a whole other system for dealing with possible FACTS. Those are things like war leading to starvation, starvation leading to war, etc... these can only be approximated but never fully predicted. There would however be very good indicators for whether the POSSIBLE equations would really come to pass, that's where it is all linked together...

Anyways it's a very cool notion.

Doesn't that presuppose the ability to understand and recognise not only the effects of all variables but also that the effects are consistent and unchanging across peoples?

Doesn't anyone have any unique thoughts on this topic, come on I've always been fascinated by the theory of Psychohistory that Asimov proposed.

Asimov himself said it was fictional but neccessary for the plot. From my "discussions :eek: " with my social science tutors (due to my engineering and physics bent) the "social sciences" are a bit away from actually being "science".
It's fiction. And will be for a long time.

Doesn't that presuppose the ability to understand and recognise not only the effects of all variables but also that the effects are consistent and unchanging across peoples?
It does. But you can do what you like in fiction.
Too many interdependent variables for any progress to be made in the near future IM(rarely H)O.

Asimov himself said it was fictional but neccessary for the plot. From my "discussions :eek: " with my social science tutors (due to my engineering and physics bent) the "social sciences" are a bit away from actually being "science".
It's fiction. And will be for a long time.

Don't you think a super computer could work out behavior patterns and such based on history enough to develop a scientific approach like Psychohistory?

It could be possible, once we know enough about human actions and interactions, but a computer needs the rules sorting out... and we're a looong way from that so far.

It could be possible, once we know enough about human actions and interactions, but a computer needs the rules sorting out... and we're a looong way from that so far.

I concur, I wish it existed right now :( Maybe it could tell us the socio-scentific changes needed in order for me to get laid!

Stop whining about it for one. Forget about getting laid. Forget about your "need" for a woman. Ignore it, just go out and pretend as far as possible that you're not bothered either way. That'll be a much better start. And then something may well happen.

Barring fundamental changes in the way we under the universe, human behavior is too chaotic for it to work for longterm predictions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

I don't think Asimovian psychohistory will ever be a reality. I do not even think it is practical. As near as we can tell, even the weather is a chaotic system that responds to the slightest influences with massive changes. As Edward Lorenz noted about his own attempts to mathematically model the weather, "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever." (This later became conceptualized as a flap of a butterfly's wings and came to be called "the Butterfly Effect.")

So, a single butterfly can radical alter the course of the world's weather...imagine all the things that the weather effects.

Asimov's theory of psychohistory relied heavily on the notion of various perturbations "canceling out" in the long run to produce some predictable outcomes. In reality, it's the opposite. Small perturbations don't cancel out, they build on one another and they interact. Insignificant events completely change everything. But for the flapping of some butterfly wings:
Katrina would not have hit New Orleans,
Napoleon might have faced an unseasonably warm Russian winter, and conquered them,
Kublai Khan's forces would have invaded Japan, rather than being destroyed at sea by the "kamikaze"
The Irish Potato Famine might never have occurred, changing the face of both Ireland and the U.S. and Canada. including denying the U.S. the Kennedy family (hence JFK never became President).
etc.

I see no reason to believe that these effects will ultimately "cancel out". If anything, I imagine that if small effects lead to big changes in chaotic systems, then big effects lead to correspondingly large changes.

It's not a question of computing power, you will never be able to identify all the "initial conditions" necessary to accurately predict even the weather with complete accuracy, and that's just one system in the grand scheme of history. If you assume other systems are similarly chaotic (and, worse, that they interact), then it seems clear to me that no one will ever be able to predict the future in the way Asimov suggested.

Edit: An interesting corollary to this is that, if you could travel backwards in time, then merely by appearing in the past you would displace air...which might (depending on how one thinks time travel works, if it is possible at all) change the weather all over the world, thus changing world history.

Nice, but reading that gave me a couple of ideas:
I see no reason to believe that these effects will ultimately "cancel out". If anything, I imagine that if small effects lead to big changes in chaotic systems, then big effects lead to correspondingly large changes.

If it truly is chaotic then maybe you only have to find the attractor to get the "big picture" and things could cancel out. After all chaotic systems have an overall shape, the phase space.
Perturbations may shift the pattern across the phase space but not out of it, things will remain as part of the overall pattern.
Just a thought.

PS I too doubt it will ever become real, but this might kick some good ideas out. Good one DarksidZz.

Good one DarksidZz.

: flutters away :

Doesn't everyone say, "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it"? Really the whole purpose of studying history, beyond entertainment value, is to be able to predict the future based upon what you learn of the past.

Now Psychohistory is simply a quantifiable system to do what we do all the time. We see parallels between the Iraq war and Vietnamn. Or is it WW2? We see parallels between the present day US and imperial Rome. Or perhaps a better analogy is the Roman Republic before it was replaced by the Roman Empire? Or maybe the Weimar Republic?

Ones analysis of such issues is heavily influenced by ones political bent. If we could quantify the factors that go into such an analysis, we might be able to make more objective assessments of current events. AKA Psychohistory.

I'm sorta the opposite. I did not discover my political soul, UNTIL I started reading history. Now, I see Hobbe's was right, about us. Now I can see that it's not history that repeats itself, it's the pattern of the same souls being reincarnated over and over again. And while people wait for a savior to free them from their self destruction, we can look at history and see that the path is set, and we are at the end game.


How do we want to go extinct?


My political vibe is anti extinction. I'm a humanist, I could give a damn about history besides the fact that it's the only way to figure out what the hell is wrong with us that keeps us pointlessly at war, with ourselves, for material objects and sometimes just for concepts like money made of paper. I'm trying to understand how this species is the least rational and least oriented with self preservation, but at the same time the most intelligent. We have the greatest responsibility as the only species smart enough to make it out of the prison of planet earth, and we are so dumb that we'd rather die fighting each other than cooperate to expand through the universe.

Also, we are evolving much too slowly for our own good.

Karl Marx must have thought psychohistory was possible, given his somewhat specific predictions.

Karl Popper, in reply to Marx's claims of the future, said that new discoveries and knowledge will have a large impact on the history they are a part of. And we can't predict new discoveries...or we'd have them already...

Other arguments can be made, but Popper's is quite simple and pretty effective IMO.

I don't see why it is necessary, anyway. It would only be for predicting very far off things, which we already know our possibilities. We can prepare for numerous possibilities...

Karl Marx must have thought psychohistory was possible, given his somewhat specific predictions.

Karl Popper, in reply to Marx's claims of the future, said that new discoveries and knowledge will have a large impact on the history they are a part of. And we can't predict new discoveries...or we'd have them already...

Other arguments can be made, but Popper's is quite simple and pretty effective IMO.

I don't see why it is necessary, anyway. It would only be for predicting very far off things, which we already know our possibilities. We can prepare for numerous possibilities...

I can predict that in the next decade, biological weapons will be deadly enough to wipe out the entire human population. I also predict in the next decade, that a whole range of extinction weapons will be invented. I just hope we don't use them.

Do you see the problem? Stopping WMD is the problem, but it's impossible to stop it WMD from being created, it's only possible to stop them from being used.

Doesn't everyone say, "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it"?
Santayana, paraphrased.
Really the whole purpose of studying history, beyond entertainment value, is to be able to predict the future based upon what you learn of the past.
Predict the future? Or just try to avoid the mistakes of the past?

Now Psychohistory is simply a quantifiable system to do what we do all the time. We see parallels between the Iraq war and Vietnamn. Or is it WW2? We see parallels between the present day US and imperial Rome. Or perhaps a better analogy is the Roman Republic before it was replaced by the Roman Empire? Or maybe the Weimar Republic?

We might be getting somewhere with war itself (or at least the actual combat), if you're interested try checking out T N Dupuy's QJM (Quantified Judgement Analysis).
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/tdipub4.htm
But it still has some of its variables tagged as "unquantifiable", hence the "Judgement" part. They limited themselves to battles and wars where as much as possible was already known or could be quantified to develop and validate the model, but it's still got a long way to go to be proven. And then there's the task of advancing it to cover non-combat (and infinitely more complicated with infinitely more variables) situations. And from there... who knows.

On a more personal note, regarding the Santayana quote, one of my hobbies is wargaming. It's amazing how many newbies come into the hobby having read everything on a particular war/ general/ battle and declare they know exactly where the mistakes were made. And then prove it conclusively by not repeating those mistakes in the process of inventing new blunders of their own.
People will fuck up, even with a complete knowledge of history, because people do. Even if you are fully aware of all variables, all intents, hidden agendas and whatever else you still have make a judgement based on emotion. If you had a bad night last night, or a particularly good night :) then your judgement is affected.
Get rid of people and the rest is easy. :D

What effect will the internet have on this so called psychohistory? The internet makes it possible for more people to interact faster and vastly reduces the information transfer costs.

Even if psychohistory could predict the mass behavior it could not predict what idea an individual might come up with and choose to distribute but the internet can now spread that idea among the masses. Psychohistory contradicts itself.

The internet is a new terrain for a kind of global mind war.

psik

What effect will the internet have on this so called psychohistory?
Anybody's guess at the moment.
The internet makes it possible for more people to interact faster and vastly reduces the information transfer costs.
And more importantly, mis- and dis-information costs.
Even if psychohistory could predict the mass behavior it could not predict what idea an individual might come up with and choose to distribute but the internet can now spread that idea among the masses. Psychohistory contradicts itself.
That was one of the reasons it was used as a plot device - it did turn out to be flawed in the series because a dictator arose, started conquering planets and the scientists in charge of pyschohistory were preparing for a predicted food shortage or something (40 years since I read the Foundation Trilogy, but the gist is right).
The internet is a new terrain for a kind of global mind war.
And SciForums is in the forefront!:cool:

Greetings female :C~

There are no major works on this topic, I think mostly due to scientists thinking it's hopeless. You see when Asimov proposed this idea / concept in his novels it was a very fantastic and rather outlandish one. It propelled his novels to the heights of popularity but in exchange many thought him to imaginative to be taken seriously.

I believe with the advent of super computers it may be possible in the near future to have a machine designed solely to determine how history unfolds, then extrapolate this information into a cohesive formula for predicting it in the future.

For example we know 1+1 will always equal 2.. in the same way we know war results in deaths, we know economic troubles cause people to become depressed, etc... through analyzing these various facts the machine could learn what POSSIBLY might happen given a scenerio. It would use equations to represent these facts, then it would have a whole other system for dealing with possible FACTS. Those are things like war leading to starvation, starvation leading to war, etc... these can only be approximated but never fully predicted. There would however be very good indicators for whether the POSSIBLE equations would really come to pass, that's where it is all linked together...

Anyways it's a very cool notion.

I don't think it would be very accurate. Could it account for unique events? Such as the rise of a talented leader that drastically changes the morale/condition of communities? Technological discoveries?

I don't think it would be very accurate. Could it account for unique events? Such as the rise of a talented leader that drastically changes the morale/condition of communities? Technological discoveries?

Posts #23 and #27 at the very least mentioned this.

Doesn't anyone have any unique thoughts on this topic, come on I've always been fascinated by the theory of Psychohistory that Asimov proposed.

I heard you yesterday. I have come to give you what you want.

Psychohistory does exist and it is being used right now. Like everything else in this world, it is hidden right in front of your face, so you never see it.

Isaac Asimov wrote Psychohistory about Jews.

Israel is the first foundation. The military economical powerhouse that takes the heat and attention.

America is the second foundation. The foundation hidden away in plain site. Just like the psychohistorians in the book hid among the native populace of trantor, jews hide among the native populace of America. They control America the same way the foundation controlled Trantor.

It is really very simple. Isaac Asimov was jewish. If you have ever written a book, you will know that you write what you know. Isaac Asimov wrote about what he saw his people doing.

This explains the gaps in the books. When the Jews realized Isaac Asimov was giving away what they were doing, they told him to stop. Being jewish, he stopped.

Think about it. One foundation everybody looks at. Militarily and economic powerhouse. One foundation hidden amongst the ruins of the old empire. America fits that description. American has been in decline since the end of WWII. The people of America are in a state of de evolution that looks like it has no end at this point in time.

It is really very simple. Isaac Asimov was jewish. If you have ever written a book, you will know that you write what you know. Isaac Asimov wrote about what he saw his people doing.
And J K Rowling is a witch. It makes so much sense. :eek:

Psychohistory does exist and it is being used right now.
Wrong and wrong.

Isaac Asimov wrote Psychohistory about Jews.
Also wrong.

Israel is the first foundation. The military economical powerhouse that takes the heat and attention.

America is the second foundation. The foundation hidden away in plain site. Just like the psychohistorians in the book hid among the native populace of trantor, jews hide among the native populace of America. They control America the same way the foundation controlled Trantor.

It is really very simple. Isaac Asimov was jewish. If you have ever written a book, you will know that you write what you know. Isaac Asimov wrote about what he saw his people doing.

This explains the gaps in the books. When the Jews realized Isaac Asimov was giving away what they were doing, they told him to stop. Being jewish, he stopped.

Think about it. One foundation everybody looks at. Militarily and economic powerhouse. One foundation hidden amongst the ruins of the old empire. America fits that description. American has been in decline since the end of WWII. The people of America are in a state of de evolution that looks like it has no end at this point in time.

Do you have anything other than your own fevered imagination to support any of this drivel at all?

History is a series of human mediated events, and also maybe human reactions to acts of fate.

From my research, human beings have been poisoned with various substances, deliberate or unknowingly, over many tens -hundred of thousands of years. (recorded history)

These toxic substances cause physical sickness, but it is the mental illnesses that are caused that alter "history"... ie show the stranger responses to stimulae.

Asimov was talking SiFi but he was really preempting the role of psychic poisoning that has shaped our world.

That principle is pure science, nothing hypothetical about it at all. Asimov as are many other ScFi authors were way ahead of the rambling masses of the establishment.

And yet these SciFi addicts are treated as shit. Shows how ignorant establish scientists are (not even trying to appraise the masses!)

These poisons are at work today, and today they will have the greatest effect on the future of humanity... civilisation is about to implode, the planet is about to freeze, and the poisons are having a field day.

And still the poisoned population, leaders, are blissfully unaware.

Ain't it great to be intoxicated !!!

omegafour.com

Wrong and wrong.

You are one of those brainwashers aren't you? You make a lordly pronouncement that something is wrong, but you never say why.

Because you can't. You are just making lordly pronouncements.

Also wrong.

See what I mean? No rebuttal, just a negative.

Do you have anything other than your own fevered imagination to support any of this drivel at all?

I don't think I have ever witnessed a scientific or a political debate in which one participants contribution was the word "wrong", repeated multiple times. Most of the debates I saw included people with the ability to convey their thoughts with a large vocabulary in a lengthy way, so that it was clear what they were saying.

Do you lack the ability to express yourself in a lengthy way with a large vocabulary? You don't have to be ashamed. We all had to start somewhere and practice until we became skilled.

I promise you that if you study, if you practice, then one day you too will be able to convey your thoughts with a large vocabulary in a lengthy way. Really. You could be a real scientist if you just put in the work to learn how to think and express yourself.

And J K Rowling is a witch. It makes so much sense. :eek:

What makes you think she isn't? What is a witch? Someone who flys around on a broom? Or is a witch perhaps someone who can control another person?

You ever hear about the Salem Witch Trials? They burned people they thought were witches. Why did they burn those people?

Nowadays, "scientists" will tell you it was because those people were ignorant savages. But "scientists" also said Vioxx cured pain.

Then we found out the scientists took bribes, and Vioxx really causes heart attack. So we know that scientists are liars if the conditions are right.

Me? I believe the reality around me. There are witches. It is a matter of definition. If some liar wearing a $2000 suit he bought with the tax money his goon boys extorted out of me through taxes tells me that up is down, I will of course agree with him. As long as the goon boys are around.

But as soon as the bully boys are gone, I will believe reality. There are witches. Psychohistory is real. It is being put to use right this minute.
----------

This really is a treehouse, and not a forum for people able to think and write scientifically, isn't it? The one word and one sentence responses are typical of the responses made by 13 and 14 year olds before they have been trained by the school to express themselves in paragraphs and complete thoughts like an adult.

You are one of those brainwashers aren't you? You make a lordly pronouncement that something is wrong, but you never say why.
To counter your unsubstantiated statements perhaps? Read the rules of the forum. You post something first, you have the duty to back it up.
I don't think I have ever witnessed a scientific or a political debate in which one participants contribution was the word "wrong", repeated multiple times. Most of the debates I saw included people with the ability to convey their thoughts with a large vocabulary in a lengthy way, so that it was clear what they were saying
Ganz falsch.
Do you lack the ability to express yourself in a lengthy way with a large vocabulary? You don't have to be ashamed. We all had to start somewhere and practice until we became skilled.
I'm talking down to you. But that probably passed your thirteen-year-old "intellect" without registering.
I promise you that if you study, if you practice, then one day you too will be able to convey your thoughts with a large vocabulary in a lengthy way. Really. You could be a real scientist if you just put in the work to learn how to think and express yourself.
Really? And what could would that do to my communication skills, since my vocabulary already exceeds that of my contemporaries by a significant margin. But you like making delusional statements.
And J K Rowling is a witch. It makes so much sense.
Not to you. Your statement "people write what they know" triggered it. Maybe too convoluted for you.
What makes you think she isn't? What is a witch? Someone who flys around on a broom? Or is a witch perhaps someone who can control another person?
You tell us.
You ever hear about the Salem Witch Trials? They burned people they thought were witches. Why did they burn those people?
Mass hysteria, superstition, group politics, lies and stupidity. No evidence.

Nowadays, "scientists" will tell you it was because those people were ignorant savages. But "scientists" also said Vioxx cured pain.
Then we found out the scientists took bribes, and Vioxx really causes heart attack. So we know that scientists are liars if the conditions are right.
SOME scientists. And SOME humans. Don't tar everyone with the same brush.
Me? I believe the reality around me. There are witches. It is a matter of definition. If some liar wearing a $2000 suit he bought with the tax money his goon boys extorted out of me through taxes tells me that up is down, I will of course agree with him. As long as the goon boys are around.
You believe the reality? You wouldn't recognise reality if it asked you to dance. And BTW you're a moral coward, what difference do goons have to do with agreement?
But as soon as the bully boys are gone, I will believe reality. There are witches. Psychohistory is real. It is being put to use right this minute.
So you can change your beliefs depending upon who is around you. Nice. And stupid. So what's new?
This really is a treehouse, and not a forum for people able to think and write scientifically, isn't it? The one word and one sentence responses are typical of the responses made by 13 and 14 year olds before they have been trained by the school to express themselves in paragraphs and complete thoughts like an adult.
You have claimed several times to be able to "think scientifically". Show us the evidence by posting like a scientist. With supporting evidence for your "hypotheses".
How about "witches exist and the data indicating this is..." and the same for "pychohistory" and Asimov (and the Jews) knowing about.

But you like making delusional statements.

For someone with a large vocabulary, you sure use the word delusional alot.

That is one of the identifying traits of people like you. When I or anyone else hears the word "delusional" come out of someone's mouth, we know they have been trained in a certain way. They will be brainwashing kinds of people, word twisting kinds of people, mealy mouthed kinds of people you cannot turn your back on.

You believe the reality? You wouldn't recognise reality if it asked you to dance. And BTW you're a moral coward, what difference do goons have to do with agreement?

Another example of what you are. As you respond to people, you take any opportunity to kick them that you can. You will say the most slimy things if you think it will hurt the other person. Nothing is too low for you or the people like you to say to another person.

So you can change your beliefs depending upon who is around you. Nice. And stupid. So what's new?

See what I mean? Why is changing your mind based on who is around stupid? Who knows? He never stated why.

He just used his brainwashing training to authoritatively make his statements is all. Simple minded and weak people will accept what he says without question. That is why he and other people like him go get the brainwashing training. It works.

You have claimed several times to be able to "think scientifically". Show us the evidence by posting like a scientist. With supporting evidence for your "hypotheses".
How about "witches exist and the data indicating this is..." and the same for "pychohistory" and Asimov (and the Jews) knowing about.

Your kidding right? If I continue to speak with you, you will continue to kick me at every opportunity. You will continue to use that identification word "delusional". You will continue making abusive statements in that brainwashing way of yours.

I give everyone the benefit of the doubt. It is who I am. Even if you treat me bad, I will write it off as a bad day or bad food or something else and give the person another chance.

You have shown yourself to be a brainwashing gratuitous abuser who cannot express anything reasonable without slapping people about the head. I have seen your type before. Nothing I say will change you. You like the way you are too much. You are addicted to controlling and abusing people.

Behavior Statistics, correlated with demographics is a modern approach to this.
Taking past behaviors, with relative groups of populations, many hope to lay a pattern of predicted outcomes.

As far as throwing a bunch of numbers at a database, with statistical figures mixed in, probably no.

But, taking in actions of past behavior, given a similar set of circumstances, you can at least have a good estimate of expected outcomes.

For someone with a large vocabulary, you sure use the word delusional alot.
It's apposite. And functional.

That is one of the identifying traits of people like you. When I or anyone else hears the word "delusional" come out of someone's mouth, we know they have been trained in a certain way. They will be brainwashing kinds of people, word twisting kinds of people, mealy mouthed kinds of people you cannot turn your back on.
More assumptions?

Another example of what you are. As you respond to people, you take any opportunity to kick them that you can. You will say the most slimy things if you think it will hurt the other person. Nothing is too low for you or the people like you to say to another person.
Again your lack of reasoning shows through. I say nothing with the intention of hurting you, just to point out that your reasoning is flawed. If that's painful to you then maybe you should re-assess your capabilities.

See what I mean? Why is changing your mind based on who is around stupid? Who knows? He never stated why.
"He" never stated why? You were talking about about how you would agree with someone because of his "goons" and then disagree as soon as they left. Cowardice? You don't have the strength of your own convictions?

He just used his brainwashing training to authoritatively make his statements is all. Simple minded and weak people will accept what he says without question. That is why he and other people like him go get the brainwashing training. It works.
You didn't mention brainwashing - you talked about "goons".

Your kidding right? If I continue to speak with you, you will continue to kick me at every opportunity. You will continue to use that identification word "delusional". You will continue making abusive statements in that brainwashing way of yours.
So the reason that you will not back up your arguments with evidence is because you believe I'm kicking you as opposed to kicking the fact that you refuse to provide any evidence for your arguments. Nice. Circular, but nice.

I give everyone the benefit of the doubt. It is who I am. Even if you treat me bad, I will write it off as a bad day or bad food or something else and give the person another chance.
You're giving ME the benefit of the doubt. By calling me a brainwashing, mealy-mouthed person who kicks others for the fun of it, and you're the one that still hasn't provided evidence to back up a single one of your assertions.

You have shown yourself to be a brainwashing gratuitous abuser who cannot express anything reasonable without slapping people about the head.
I certainly have. To every single woowoo who fails to substantiate his arguments and would rather spend an entire post complaining about the injustice of people not taking his word for things.

I have seen your type before
That hardly surprises me. I know full there are people with low idiot-tolerance levels. Just your hard luck you run into them.

Nothing I say will change you.
Correct. Nothing you SAY, but you could show us the evidence. Get it?

You like the way you are too much. You are addicted to controlling and abusing people.
Control? So I'm controlling you now? So how come I haven't controlled into into providing the evidence?
Abusing? Only inveterate morons.

And so far you have failed to answer one single question...

Behavior Statistics, correlated with demographics is a modern approach to this.
It's a start at least. But the "social sciences" still have a long way to go.

Taking past behaviors, with relative groups of populations, many hope to lay a pattern of predicted outcomes.
The problem is that en masse there may be some statistical base (gas laws?), but small groups can have disproportionate effects.

As far as throwing a bunch of numbers at a database, with statistical figures mixed in, probably no.
Gotta start somewhere though. Where else?

But, taking in actions of past behavior, given a similar set of circumstances, you can at least have a good estimate of expected outcomes.
Yup. But HOW good. people do unexpected things all the time. :D

Going off of the title entirely... I know that it is possible. Not only is that possible, but some things far grander in scale are possible! I could describe it, but then I would be giving away all the information to a future idealistic philosophy!

Going off of the title entirely... I know that it is possible. Not only is that possible, but some things far grander in scale are possible! I could describe it, but then I would be giving away all the information to a future idealistic philosophy!

Please do so.

I didn't read your poison. I could tell by a glance it was more of your brainwashing training, attacking every little thing to destroy a person, not what they say.

I came back because I cannot get over your stupidity. The more I thought about how stupid your posts were, the more I wondered if you ever actually read the books. If you have read the books, you are not just stupid, you are retarded to make the statements you do. Stupid can be cured. Retardation is forever.

You want evidence for the existence of psychohistory and the people who are implementing it. Let's think about this.

What was it that the hidden foundation was known for? Mind control right? Or did you actually read the books? If not, the foundation was know for telepathy and mind control

Let's say that I stumble in the front door of Psychohistory Central. We all know big corporations and organizations let anyone walk in right?

The psychohistorians who are telepathic don't know I am their and do nothing.

Then I stumble over to an unoccupied computer and get computer records.

The psychohistorians who are telepathic don't know I am their and do nothing.

Then I walk out of the building with an Ipod full of files on the members of Psycho History organization, and all of their plans.

The psychohistorians who are telepathic don't know what I have done and allow me to walk away.

Sounds totally stupid doesn't it? The nature of the people involved in Psycho History, telepaths and mind manipulators, means that they would know my intention to steal their material, they would know I was in the building, they would know I was walking out of the building. Stealing information from telepaths would be impossible because they know what you are thinking. You dolt.

Now. Let's say I find the Psycho History organization charts and plans in the street and take them home. I start reading them and I discover all about Psycho History. What happens next?

I am walking down the street, I cross paths with a Psycho History person who reads my mind and knows that I know all about Psycho History. He then simply erases my mind as was done to countless people in the books. You dolt.

Or lets say I am telepathic myself. I can shield myself from the Psycho History in a way similar to the mule or some other character. I go around scot free because they cannot touch me. I met you and I tell you about Psycho History.

You are just a regular dodo brain that knows nothing about telepathy. So you walk away from me, walk down the street where you run into a Psycho History person who promptly erases the information from your mind. You dolt.
------------------------------

The entire premise of Psycho History was mind manipulation. The erasure of memories of people, or the outright control of people.

Common sense tells us that any person who actually had evidence of Psycho History would be immediately mind wiped. You dolt.

Can you see that asking for evidence is stupid? Not because there is no evidence, but because if someone actually found some, they would be mind wiped and the Psycho Historians would tell them to throw their material in the fire.

You dolt.

Don't forget, the robots were doing for our own good (see Zeroth law).

Perhaps this discussion from a few years ago would be interesting - http://sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=22175 (Theory of Social Change)

A few of us were kicking this idea around.

I didn't read your poison. I could tell by a glance it was more of your brainwashing training, attacking every little thing to destroy a person, not what they say.
There's your problem defined - you've made your mind up and the reality will not change your mind.

I came back because I cannot get over your stupidity. The more I thought about how stupid your posts were, the more I wondered if you ever actually read the books. If you have read the books, you are not just stupid, you are retarded to make the statements you do. Stupid can be cured. Retardation is forever.
You mean Asimov's Foundation series? Yes I've read them, about 40 years ago. They are science FICTION. You have yet to provide any evidence otherwise. Whining doesn't count as evidence.

You want evidence for the existence of psychohistory and the people who are implementing it. Let's think about this.

What was it that the hidden foundation was known for? Mind control right? Or did you actually read the books? If not, the foundation was know for telepathy and mind control
Let's say that I stumble in the front door of Psychohistory Central. We all know big corporations and organizations let anyone walk in right?
The psychohistorians who are telepathic don't know I am their and do nothing.
Then I stumble over to an unoccupied computer and get computer records.
The psychohistorians who are telepathic don't know I am their and do nothing.
Then I walk out of the building with an Ipod full of files on the members of Psycho History organization, and all of their plans.
The psychohistorians who are telepathic don't know what I have done and allow me to walk away.
The psychohistorians weren't telepathic. Re-read the books, they used the MADE UP science of psychohistory.

Sounds totally stupid doesn't it? The nature of the people involved in Psycho History, telepaths and mind manipulators, means that they would know my intention to steal their material, they would know I was in the building, they would know I was walking out of the building. Stealing information from telepaths would be impossible because they know what you are thinking. You dolt.
But you have yet to provide ecvidence that telepathy exists. Moron.

Now. Let's say I find the Psycho History organization charts and plans in the street and take them home. I start reading them and I discover all about Psycho History. What happens next?

I am walking down the street, I cross paths with a Psycho History person who reads my mind and knows that I know all about Psycho History. He then simply erases my mind as was done to countless people in the books. You dolt.

Or lets say I am telepathic myself. I can shield myself from the Psycho History in a way similar to the mule or some other character. I go around scot free because they cannot touch me. I met you and I tell you about Psycho History.

You are just a regular dodo brain that knows nothing about telepathy. So you walk away from me, walk down the street where you run into a Psycho History person who promptly erases the information from your mind. You dolt.
So, once again, if these people are in control and don't quibble at "wiping memories" presumably they wouldn't mind the odd "accident" happening to some idiot that posts all over the net...

The entire premise of Psycho History was mind manipulation. The erasure of memories of people, or the outright control of people.
No it wasn't. Did you undersatnd any of the book? Psychohistory was the application of mathematics to social sciences and human behaviour.

Common sense tells us that any person who actually had evidence of Psycho History would be immediately mind wiped. You dolt.
Actually common sense tells us psychohistory doesn't exist. Woowoo.

Can you see that asking for evidence is stupid? Not because there is no evidence, but because if someone actually found some, they would be mind wiped and the Psycho Historians would tell them to throw their material in the fire.
But you seem to have obtained the information and are doing your best to pass it on to people who, in your view, will have it wiped from their mind immediately.

Lets be civil fellas.

JAK

But, taking in actions of past behavior, given a similar set of circumstances, you can at least have a good estimate of expected outcomes.

Yup. But HOW good. people do unexpected things all the time. :D

This level is used to hopefully predict violent behavior on the part of a unstable crowd. Such as, given xx number of people, if a display is shown such as entire group moving towards a control group in an aggressive manner; then what is the percent chance that the aggressive group will initiate a riot. Most of the time, there is no riot, and just a lot of bickering. But, in the '60s, there were a lot of riots in the major cities. And of course, the Rodney King incident in L.A. in the '90s.

There are policies in place that tell the ones whom wish to control such behavior to take such and such action if certain conditions are met.

This is an extreme case, and as far as generality of predicting possible outcomes for future gain, I'm not so sure. If it were possible, I'm sure that the I-Net ad companies would love to get a hold of these techniques. To predict behavior on a mass scale would be highly beneficial in the buying market.

Oli, you're up.

Nice touch up. 100% accurate. Love the inclusive conclusive argument. Just know noticed.

I'm led to believe you know what you're doing, right. Now, hacks do serious intent on the I-net.

You're a Glaze, a hoist at yourself. You're too polite for me, as your trivial argument is quite insignificant. Couldn't you have accessed yourself better, and at least been a little more grandiose. You're not Himler, maybe half-ways. I'm not certain. Now, now , now, nor do I want to be, Sir. USee, your little. Tiny, this will bother you significantly, this I know. I do so to hear you whine louder. Yes, I enjoy it. You're an iota, you might say, of inconsequence, inaction. DO NOT EXPAND THE LAST NOTION...